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NASA NTRS2020

Perspectives on Data Reproducibility and Replicability in Paleoclimate and Climate Science

This paper summarizes the current state of reproducibility and replicability in the fields of climate and paleoclimate science, including brief histories of their development and applications in climate science, new and recent approaches towards improvement of reproducibility and replicability, and challenges. Recommendations for addressing those challenges include: development of searchable, auto-updated, interlinked, multi-archive public paleoclimate repositories for raw and processed digital datasets; cross-center standardized code base cases, improved data storage techniques, and a focus on replicability for climate simulation storage and access; and support of the development and community awareness of findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable (FAIR) principles by funding agencies and publishers. This paper is largely based on the May 2018 presentations of a panel of researchers to the Committee on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, part of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. The commentary and recommendations made here are in alignment with those of its Consensus Study Report on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science (2019).

data repositories↗

NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗

NASA NTRS2020

A New Glacial Varve Chronology Along the Southern Laurentide Ice Sheet That Spans the Younger Dryas–Holocene Boundary

Glacial varves can detail ice-margin positions and provide a proxy for meltwater discharge at resolutions comparable to those of the Greenland ice core archives, and thus they can be critical paleorecords for assessing the response of both ancient and modern ice sheets to climate change. Here we provide an ~1500 yr varve chronology straddling the Younger Dryas (YD)–Holocene boundary (11.65 cal. kyr B.P.), the first such chronology in North America. The varves are from glacial Lake Agassiz (central North America). The chronology is pinned on accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon-dated terrestrial macrofossils at the base of a widespread red-clay bed deposited during flooding from the Lake Superior basin. We illustrate the utility of this record by examining ice-margin retreat and melting through the late Younger Dryas and across the Holocene boundary. The ice margin receded at a constant rate, not only during the late YD, but for at least 300 yr after the onset of the Holocene. In contrast, varve thicknesses increased at the boundary, and a moraine formed over a 50 yr period, perhaps in response to the warming climate. Our expectation is that this time series will continue to be developed, expanded, and refined because it promises to be the longest and most geographically extensive glacial varve data set in North America.

Glacial varves↗

NASA NTRS2015

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

teleconnections↗

NASA NTRS2008

Recent Studies of the Behavior of the Sun's White-Light Corona Over Time

Predictions of upcoming solar cycles are often related to the nature and dynamics of the Sun's polar magnetic field and its influence on the corona. For the past 30 years we have a more-or-less continuous record of the Sun's white-light corona from groundbased and spacebased coronagraphs. Over that interval, the large scale features of the corona have varied in what we now consider a 'predictable' fashion--complex, showing multiple streamers at all latitudes during solar activity maximum; and a simple dipolar shape aligned with the rotational pole during solar minimum. Over the past three decades the white-light corona appears to be a better indicator of 'true' solar minimum than sunspot number since sunspots disappear for months (even years) at solar minimum. Since almost all predictions of the timing of the next solar maximum depend on the timing of solar minimum, the white-light corona is a potentially important observational discriminator for future predictors. In this contribution we describe recent work quantifying the large-scale appearance of the Sun's corona to correlate it with the sunspot record, especially around solar minimum. These three decades can be expanded with the HAO archive of eclipse photographs which, although sparse compared to the coronagraphic coverage, extends back to 1869. A more extensive understanding of this proxy would give researchers confidence in using the white-light corona as an indicator of solar minimum conditions.

SaintCyr, O. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

boundary conditions↗

NASA NTRS2014

Groundwater and Terrestrial Water Storage

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) comprises groundwater, soil moisture, surface water, snow,and ice. Groundwater typically varies more slowly than the other TWS components because itis not in direct contact with the atmosphere, but often it has a larger range of variability onmultiannual timescales (Rodell and Famiglietti, 2001; Alley et al., 2002). In situ groundwaterdata are only archived and made available by a few countries. However, monthly TWSvariations observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al.,2004) satellite mission, which launched in 2002, are a reasonable proxy for unconfinedgroundwater at climatic scales.

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2017

Climatic History of the Northeastern United States During the Past 3000 Years

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000BCE - 1700CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

Marlon, Jennifer R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Spring-Summer Temperatures Since AD 1780 Reconstructed from Stable Oxygen Isotope Ratios in White Spruce Tree-Rings from the Mackenzie Delta, Northwestern Canada

High-latitude delta(exp 18)O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring delta(exp 18)O record (AD 1780-2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892-2003), tree-ring delta(exp 18)O explained 29% of interannual variability in April-July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the delta(exp 18)O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric delta(exp 18)O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other delta(exp 18)O records from this region. Our delta(exp 18)O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region.

Canada↗

NASA NTRS2004

Physics of Galaxy Clusters and How it Affects Cosmological Tests

The main activities in 2004 were focused on completion of the new 400 square degrees ROSAT PSPC survey for distant galaxy clusters. We observed and reduced optical spectra for all X-ray candidates and now we have complete identification for a statistically complete sample of distant 283 clusters. The papers describing the cluster catalog and first science results are in preparation and will be submitted in early 2005. We also completed a project to measure temperature and density profiles at large radii using Chandra observations of a 11 well exposed low-redshift clusters. We were able to demonstrate that the density, temperature, and total mass profiles are self-similar at large radii. This analysis has led to significant improvements in determination of the cluster baryon fraction as well as cosmologically important scaling relations, such as Mtot-T. The paper describing these results is submitted to ApJ in November, 2004. We continued to study evolution of the cluster scaling relations at high redshifts using Chandra and XMM data. We developed code for image and spectral deconvolution of the XMM observations. This code was used to reconstruct the distribution of baryons and total mass from observations of distant clusters which suffer from the finite size of the XMM PSF. This study allowed us to derive a high-redshift relation between cluster temperature and mass and compare it with the local relation obtained. The paper describing the first results is submitted to the ApJ. However, the project is still on-going as more distant cluster observations enter XMh4 and Chandra public data archives. We continued our work on improving techniques for accurate measurements of the cluster mass function and obtaining cosmological constraints from such observations. We published (ApJ, 601, 610) a study in which we derived the baryon mass function for a complete sample of low-redshift clusters. These papers argued that it was an excellent proxy for the total mass function. The baryon mass function can be used to constrain the amplitude and slope of the density fluctuation power spectrum on cluster scales. This method does not use observational determinations of the total mass and thus bypasses major uncertainties in the traditional analyses based on the X-ray temperature function. We derived the measurements for the amplitude of density perturbations, sigma8 = 0.72 +/- 0.04 and the shape parameter Omega*h = 0.l3 +/- 0.07, in good agreement with a number of independent methods.

Oliversen, Ronald J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Collaborative Space Weather Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

Space weather models have been actively developed by the international research community, covering extensive spatial and physical domains. Still, many of the ground-breaking models remain a granular effort, insulated from a wider research audience, particularly that in different domains, and possible end users. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) seeks to remove such barriers to collaboration and coordination by providing a convenient platform for hosting space weather models and associated services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. Moreover, the multi-disciplinary science support team at CCMC facilitates and enables collaboration across domains. In our presentation, we will discuss the space weather model services at CCMC, including Runs-on-Request, Real-Time Continuous Runs, and Instant Runs. We will also review new and updated models added to the extensive collection of space weather models hosted at CCMC. We will focus on trends in model, service, and science support utilization at CCMC as a proxy to the most pressing needs of the collaborative modeling community.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Updates in Developing a Prototype Science Pipeline and Full-Volume, Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Data Sets for NASA’s Earth System Observatory’s Upcoming Surface, Biology and Geology Mission

The Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission recently passed mission confirmation review and has entered phase A – design and development. SBG will acquire high resolution solar-reflected spectroscopy and thermal infrared observations at a data rate of ~2.5 TB/day and generate products at ~40 TB/day. Given that the per-day volume is greater than NASA’s total extant airborne hyperspectral data collection, collecting, processing, disseminating, and exploiting the SBG data present new challenges. To meet these challenges, we have developed a prototype science pipeline and a full-volume global hyperspectral synthetic data set to help prepare for SBG’s flight (see poster GC42D-0730). Our science pipeline is based on the science processing technology developed for NASA’s Kepler and TESS planet-hunting missions. The pipeline infrastructure, Ziggy, provides a scalable architecture for robust, repeatable, and replicable science and application products that can be run on a range of systems from a laptop to the cloud or a supercomputer. Ziggy is compliant with NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 7150.2C, is at a technical readiness level (TRL) of 7 and has been released to github.com/nasa/ziggy. We integrated Ziggy with EO-1/Hyperion workflows to build a prototype pipeline and ingested the 17-year mission archive that provides globally sampled visible through shortwave infrared spectra that are representative of SBG data types and volumes. We fully implemented the first stage and processed the entire 55 TB Hyperion data set from the raw data (Level 0) to top-of-the-atmosphere radiance (Level 1R). We are currently evaluating the ISOFIT atmospheric correction module to convert the L1R data to surface reflectance (Level 2) before reprocessing the full data set to L2. Crosschecks are being performed with RadCalNet as well as with coincident observations by AVIRIS. We are also investigating modern methods for georectifying the Hyperion scenes. Finally, we describe an analysis of the cost to conduct forward processing and reprocessing campaigns for SBG on HECC with dedicated compute and storage resources using the resurrected Hyperion pipeline as a proxy for full-volume SBG data. The analysis demonstrates that SBG L0 data can be processed to L2 on HECC with full reprocessing campaigns every two years for ~$2.6M over a 7-year lifespan. Moreover, 69% of the system capacity would be available for other activities, possibly enabling future open-source science activities, including algorithm development, L3+ processing, .etc.

ESD↗

NASA NTRS1997

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Goodman, S. J.↗