Results for “queue prediction”

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Queue Prediction at Signalized Intersections with Fusing Sensory Information and Connected Vehicles

Queue length is one of the most essential metrics for indicating traffic conditions at signalized intersections. Most existing studies mainly focus on queue length estimation in a retrieving way which cannot effectively predict the future state of vehicle in queue. This paper proposes an innovative dynamic queue prediction model in a vehicle-infrastructure cooperative way. The proposed dynamic queue predictor can customize the queue prediction using the trajectories of preceding vehicles from radar detection with varying information from loop detectors and connected vehicles (CVs). The dynamic queue prediction accuracy can be further improved with at least one present CV in the same cycle. With the accurate dynamic queue prediction, we present a case study of Queue-Aware Eco-Approach and Departure (QEAD) to provide an online optimal vehicle trajectory considering both the signal status and preceding vehicle's future status in queue. The proposed framework and algorithms are of pragmatic significance and one of its advanced features is the ability to work under low penetration rate of CVs. The test using Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) dataset and a case study in VISSIM microscopic simulation show promising results.

Ye, Fei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning-Based Queue-Aware Eco-Approach and Departure System for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Buses at Signalized Intersections: A Simulation Study

Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) has been considered as a promising eco-driving strategy for vehicles traveling in an urban environment, where information such as signal phase and timing (SPaT) and geometric intersection description is well utilized to guide vehicles passing through intersections in the most energy-efficient manner. Previous studies formulated the optimal trajectory planning problem as finding the shortest path on a graphical model. While this method is effective in terms of energy saving, its computation efficiency can be further enhanced by adopting machine learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning-based queue-aware eco-approach and departure (DLQ-EAD) system for a plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB), which is able to provide an online optimal trajectory for the vehicle considering both the downstream traffic condition (i.e. traffic lights, queues) and the vehicle powertrain efficiency. Based on optimal solutions obtained from the graph-based trajectory planning algorithm (GTPA), a deep neural network (DNN) is developed to learn the optimal vehicle speed for the next time step given its current state. It is demonstrated that the trained DNN can provide energy-efficient trajectories with high computational efficiency and high flexibility adopting to dynamic changes in the surrounding environment. To address the impact of downstream traffic, a queue prediction model is further developed using data from radars and connected vehicles (CVs), as well as signal timing data from SPaT messages. A comprehensive simulation study in the microscopic traffic modeling software PTV VISSIM shows that the proposed DLQ-EAD can achieve 18.7%-24.0% energy efficiency improvements for a single PHEB on various traffic congestion levels. The proposed queue prediction model can be of practical significance even at low penetration rates of CVs. Specifically, additional energy savings of 2.0%-8.2% can be further achieved with 20% vehicles in the network.

Ye, Fei↗

DOE OSTI2026

Queue wait time prediction in high performance computing (HPC) systems

High Performance Computing (HPC) systems are critical enablers for groundbreaking scientific research across various domains. Efficient resource allocation, facilitated by job scheduling, is paramount for maximizing the utilization of HPC systems. However, the variability in wait times for queued jobs poses challenges for users, necessitating accurate job wait time estimation. This paper explores the influence of job characteristics, including job size (the number of nodes requested and walltime), the queue to which the job is submitted and other resource requirements, on job wait times in leadership-class HPC systems. Focusing on the Theta Cray XC40 and Polaris machines at Argonne National Laboratory, the study evaluates the performance of different supervised learning algorithms in predicting job wait times. It also evaluates the impact of data preprocessing, including outlier detection, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and feature selection, on the performance of wait time prediction models. The findings reveal insights into the relationship between job characteristics and wait times, offering a foundation for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing user experience. The methodologies and tools developed in this study are adaptable to other leadership-class HPC systems, providing a valuable contribution to the broader HPC community aiming to improve job scheduling efficiency and user satisfaction.

Okafor, Nwamaka↗

DOE OSTI2021

Network resiliency through memory health monitoring and proactive management

A method for managing a network queue memory includes receiving sensor information about the network queue memory, predicting a memory failure in the network queue memory based on the sensor information, and outputting a notification through a plurality of nodes forming a network and using the network queue memory, the notification configuring communications between the nodes.

Andrade Costa, Carlos H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs: Preprint

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Method and apparatus for front end gather/scatter memory coalescing

A system for processing gather and scatter instructions can implement a front-end subsystem, a back-end subsystem, or both. The front-end subsystem includes a prediction unit configured to determine a predicted quantity of coalesced memory access operations required by an instruction. A decode unit converts the instruction into a plurality of access operations based on the predicted quantity, and transmits the plurality of access operations and an indication of the predicted quantity to an issue queue. The back-end subsystem includes a load-store unit that receives a plurality of access operations corresponding to an instruction, determines a subset of the plurality of access operations that can be coalesced, and forms a coalesced memory access operation from the subset. A queue stores multiple memory addresses for a given load-store entry to provide for execution of coalesced memory accesses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Method and apparatus for back end gather/scatter memory coalescing

A system for processing gather and scatter instructions can implement a front-end subsystem, a back-end subsystem, or both. The front-end subsystem includes a prediction unit configured to determine a predicted quantity of coalesced memory access operations required by an instruction. A decode unit converts the instruction into a plurality of access operations based on the predicted quantity, and transmits the plurality of access operations and an indication of the predicted quantity to an issue queue. The back-end subsystem includes a load-store unit that receives a plurality of access operations corresponding to an instruction, determines a subset of the plurality of access operations that can be coalesced, and forms a coalesced memory access operation from the subset. A queue stores multiple memory addresses for a given load-store entry to provide for execution of coalesced memory accesses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mastering HPC Runtime Prediction: From Observing Patterns to a Methodological Approach

The continual expansion of high-performance computing (HPC) brings with it an increasing need for efficiency. Heavy investment in energy, hardware, and software infrastructure to support peta- and exascale computing requires the optimization of existing systems and, wherever possible, the discernment and adoption of best-practices towards these goals. Such is the case for runtime prediction. When a job is submitted to an HPC system, an estimate of its runtime is provided by the user in the form of "requested wallclock". Error in this user-provided estimate can lead to jobs being prematurely killed by the scheduler, increased wait time on the queue, and decreased system utilization. More than fifteen years of research has been directed at mitigating these effects by using data-driven runtime predictions. Codified here is a set of commonalities and insights emerging from this body of work, which we present as recommendations and best practices. These practices are combined into a methodological approach described and evaluated on an 11-million-job dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's petascale HPC system, Eagle. This dataset and the accompanying codebase have been released to the public domain for the benefit of the wider HPC research community.

high performance computing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mastering HPC Runtime Prediction: From Observing Patterns to a Methodological Approach: Preprint

The continual expansion of high-performance computing (HPC) brings with it an increasing need for efficiency. Heavy investment in energy, hardware, and software infrastructure to support peta- and exascale computing requires the optimization of existing systems and, wherever possible, the discernment and adoption of best-practices towards these goals. Such is the case for runtime prediction. When a job is submitted to an HPC system, an estimate of its runtime is provided by the user in the form of "requested wallclock''. Error in this user-provided estimate can lead to jobs being prematurely killed by the scheduler, increased wait time on the queue, and decreased system utilization. More than fifteen years of research has been directed at mitigating these effects by using data-driven runtime predictions. Codified here is a set of commonalities and insights emerging from this body of work, which we present as recommendations and best practices. These practices are combined into a methodological approach described and evaluated on an 11-million-job dataset from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's petascale HPC system, Eagle. This dataset and the accompanying codebase have been released to the public domain for the benefit of the wider HPC research community.

high performance computing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models

This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics for machine tool: Modeling, analysis and algorithms

Machining dynamics research lays a solid foundation for machining operations by providing stable combinations of spindle speed and depth of cut. Furthermore, machine learning has been applied to predict tool life as a function of cutting speed. However, the existing research does not consider the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop, i.e., the machine tool needs to process a series of parts in queue under various practical production requirements. This paper addresses the integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics to achieve cost savings in machining. A learning-based cost function is first proposed for the studied integrated optimization problem of machine tool. The proposed cost function utilizes the predicted tool life under different stable cutting speeds for further optimizing speed selection of machine tool to deal with the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop. Then, according to the practical production requirements, effective mathematical optimization models are developed for the related integrated optimization problems with the consideration of cost, makespan and due date, respectively. Numerical results show the effectiveness of our proposed methods and also the potential to be used in practice.

Ma, Mason↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating vehicle trajectory planning and arterial traffic management to facilitate eco-approach and departure deployment

Eco-approach and departure (EAD) enable continuous vehicle motion in urban signalized corridors. Since such a motion can extend to the EAD vehicles’ followers, it makes EAD a promising technology to benefit the traffic flow where automated vehicles and conventional vehicles coexist. Most existing EAD studies envision an ideal setting that neglects real-world operational conditions such as lane changes, multi-movement intersection configuration, partially automated fleet, and/or limited traffic state awareness. This study aims to fill the gap by designing an EAD algorithm considering real-world traffic operation constraints. The proposed algorithm uses a model predictive controller to minimize vehicle speed reduction and variation based on the real-time traffic signal control plan and measured queues at the intersection. The required inputs are readily available at many modern intersections. We observed that the proposed controller’s performance might degrade because of lane-changing maneuvers and lead-left turn traffic signals. These observations motivated our development of a lane change management strategy and a signal control implementation strategy to facilitate the EAD implementation. The lane change management strategies separate the EAD operations and lane-changing maneuvers in time and space. The signal control implementation strategy applies lag-left turn signals to enable EAD operation for both the through and left-turn vehicles. Compared to the non-EAD case, our EAD approach produces 2.5% to 7.8% energy savings while keeping similar intersection mobility. Notably, this approach brings about 2.5% to 3.6% energy savings in a 2% CAV case. This result demonstrates the feasibility of deploying EAD at low connected automated vehicle penetration rates.

Arterial corridor management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting runtime and resource utilization of jobs on integrated cloud and HPC systems

Recent advances in virtualization technologies used in cloud computing offer performance that closely approaches bare-metal levels. Combined with specialized instance types and high-speed networking services for cluster computing, cloud platforms have become a compelling option for high-performance computing (HPC). However, most current batch job schedulers in HPC systems are designed for homogeneous clusters and make decisions based on limited information about jobs and system status. Scientists typically submit computational jobs to these schedulers with a requested runtime that is often over- or under-estimated. More accurate runtime predictions can help schedulers make better decisions and reduce job turnaround times. Here, they can also support decisions about migrating jobs to the cloud to avoid long queue wait times in HPC systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Offline Arterial Signal Timing Optimization for Closely Spaced Intersections

The stop-and-go driving behavior at a busy arterial causes a significant amount of fuel waste and emissions that could be reduced. For closely spaced intersections, the traditional bottom-up signal timing approach could fail under high volumes when the queues reach the upstream intersections. A well-coordinated arterial should manage the queue length to prevent the control from failing. Traditionally, coordination among signalized intersections for an arterial means finding the good offsets for each intersection. The control of the intersections along an arterial can also be coordinated by optimizing splits. Splits impact the capacity of an intersection. Similar to the highway, the capacity drop could cause growing queues. This work is based on the Virtual Phase-Link (VPL) model, a street traffic model designed for online traffic model predictive control, to obtain a top-down offline arterial signal timing. The VPL-based model can guarantee capacity consistency in intersections along an arterial. We, therefore, adopted the VPL-based model and developed an offline signal timing optimization approach. The proposed timing derived from the VPL-based offline signal timing optimization showed very good results in simulation. We also collected field experiment data, which demonstrated overall energy reductions and speed improvements on some sections of the study arterial.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Potential Infrastructure Cost Savings at Hybrid Wind Plus Solar PV Plants

This report documents the creation of NREL's Balance of System model for Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HybridBOSSE). Balance of System (BOS) costs account for approximately 30% of the capital expenditure required to install a land-based wind plant, and as much as 40% of the cost of installing a solar PV plant. Hybrid Renewable Energy systems present an opportunity to combine balance of system components to achieve cost savings, and HybridBOSSE aims to provide a component-level model to determine the associated BOS costs in a hybrid renewable energy system. Prior BOS models for hybrid systems (at NREL and elsewhere) have relied on empirical curve fits of legacy industry data, limiting their utility and their predictive ability for new technology combinations and configurations, such as those found in Hybrid Plants. Hybrid plants at the utility scale have considerably more interest in the last number of years, with ever-growing capacities in the interconnection queues, and many large developers pivoting to only consider hybrid plants going forward. As these plants become a commercial reality, the need for a detailed analysis of costs in a hybrid plant to fully exploit the available cost savings grows. The tool developed and documented in this work, HybridBOSSE, provides an open-source, python-based method of assessing the costs in hybrid plants. This analysis capability unlocks greater certainty in hybrid plant costs, as well as the ability to examine scenarios of hybridization and glean combinations that offer the greatest flexibility and cost reduction.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Computing for Scale-Up Problems

Adaptive Computing is an application-agnostic outer loop framework to strategically deploy simulations and experiments to guide decision making for scale-up analysis. Resources are allocated over successive batches, which makes the allocation adaptive to some objective such as optimization or model training. The framework enables the characterization and management of uncertainties associated with predictive models of complex systems when scale-up questions lead to significant model extrapolation. A key advancement of this framework is its integration of multi-fidelity surrogate modeling, uncertainty management, and automated orchestration of various computing and experimentation resources into a single integrated software package. This enables efficient multi-fidelity modeling across multiple computing resources by incorporating real-world constraints such as relative queue times and throughput on individual machines into the multi-fidelity sampling decision. We discuss applications of this framework to problems in the renewable energy space, including biofuels production, material synthesis, perovskite crystal growth, and building electrical loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗