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NASA NTRS2005

Shuttle Orbiter Contingency Abort Aerodynamics: Real-Gas Effects and High Angles of Attack

An important element of the Space Shuttle Orbiter safety improvement plan is the improved understanding of its aerodynamic performance so as to minimize the "black zones" in the contingency abort trajectories [1]. These zones are regions in the launch trajectory where it is predicted that, due to vehicle limitations, the Orbiter will be unable to return to the launch site in a two or three engine-out scenario. Reduction of these zones requires accurate knowledge of the aerodynamic forces and moments to better assess the structural capability of the vehicle. An interesting aspect of the contingency abort trajectories is that the Orbiter would need to achieve angles of attack as high as 60deg. Such steep attitudes are much higher than those for a nominal flight trajectory. The Orbiter is currently flight certified only up to an angle of attack of 44deg at high Mach numbers and has never flown at angles of attack larger than this limit. Contingency abort trajectories are generated using the data in the Space Shuttle Operational Aerodynamic Data Book (OADB) [2]. The OADB, a detailed document of the aerodynamic environment of the current Orbiter, is primarily based on wind-tunnel measurements (over a wide Mach number and angle-of-attack range) extrapolated to flight conditions using available theories and correlations, and updated with flight data where available. For nominal flight conditions, i.e., angles of attack of less than 45deg, the fidelity of the OADB is excellent due to the availability of flight data. However, at the off-nominal conditions, such as would be encountered on contingency abort trajectories, the fidelity of the OADB is less certain. The primary aims of a recent collaborative effort (completed in the year 2001) between NASA and Boeing were to determine: 1) accurate distributions of pressure and shear loads on the Orbiter at select points in the contingency abort trajectory space; and 2) integrated aerodynamic forces and moments for the entire vehicle and the control surfaces (body flap, speed brake, and elevons). The latter served the useful purpose of verification of the aerodynamic characteristics that went into the generation of the abort trajectories.

Prabhu, Dinesh K.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Solutions Network Formulation Report. The Potential Contributions of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission to Phosphorus Reduction Efforts in the Florida Everglades

This candidate solution suggests the use of GPM precipitation observations to enhance the CERP. Specifically, GPM measurements could augment in situ precipitation data that are used to model agricultural phosphorus discharged into the Everglades. This solution benefits society by aiding water resource managers in identifying effective phosphorus reduction scenarios and thereby returning the Everglades to a more natural state. This solution supports the Water Management, Coastal Management, and Ecological Forecasting National Applications.

Anderson, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2016

Significant Atmospheric Aerosol Pollution Caused by World Food Cultivation

Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to its sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality. In many densely populated areas, aerosols formed from gases that are released by fertilizer application and animal husbandry dominate over the combined contributions from all other anthropogenic pollution. Here we test reduction scenarios of combustion-based and agricultural emissions that could lower air pollution. For a future scenario, we find opposite trends, decreasing nitrate aerosol formation near the surface while total tropospheric loads increase. This suggests that food production could be increased to match the growing global population without sacrificing air quality if combustion emission is decreased.

public health↗

NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe

In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Otterman, J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Design and Development of a Laboratory-Scale Ice Adhesion Testing Device

When an aircraft traverses through clouds containing supercooled water droplets, in-flight icing can occur that negatively affects vehicle performance by increasing weight and drag leading to loss of lift. Super-cooled water droplets present in clouds that impact vehicle surfaces can lead to inflight icing any time during the year.1 Most events occur at temperatures ranging from 0 to -20degC. Ice generated on the aircraft can vary between clear/glaze, rime, and mixed (Fig. 1) depending on air temperature (-5 to -20degC), liquid water content (0.3-0.6 g/m3), and droplet size (median volumetric diameter of 15-40 μm). Current strategies to remove ice are based on active technologies such as pneumatic boots, heated surfaces, and deicing agents (i.e., ethylene- and propylene-based glycols). The latter have potential environmental concerns. A passive approach to mitigate accreting ice that is actively being investigated are protective coatings. An ice mitigating coating could potentially be used as a stand-alone material, but more likely in combination with an active approach. In the latter scenario, potential reduction in power consumption by the active approach may be realized. To determine the ice adhesion strength of impact ice that is representative of the aircraft environment is not a trivial matter. Test methods utilizing slowly formed ice (i.e., freezer ice) do not accurately simulate this environment. Likewise, some testing methodologies involve sample relocation from the icing environment to the test chamber that can result in thermal shock to the sample, thus affecting the results. The Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand (AERTS) located at Pennsylvania State University (PSU) has been demonstrated to simulate impact icing conditions within the icing envelope for the determination of ice adhesion shear strength (IASS) without removal/relocation of the sample.2 Due to the confidence in results obtained from AERTS, this instrument is in high demand and requires a significant amount of lead time and capital investment to obtain IASS results. As a solution for quickly and economically screening coatings in a controlled manner under impact icing conditions, a laboratory-scale ice adhesion test and dead blades were then removed from the rotor/blade assembly to obtain the final mass. The IASS of the live blade was determined from the difference in mass (before and after testing) of the live and dead blades, the ice shed area, and the rpm of the shed event. The same live blade sample was tested in triplicate at all three test temperatures. Surface roughness was determined using a Bruker Dektak XT Stylus Profilometer. Measurements were conducted using a 12.5 μm tip at a vertical range of 65.5 μm with an applied force of 3 mg. Data were collected over a 1.0 mm length at a resolution of 0.056 μm/point. Five single line scans at different locations were collected and processed using a two-point leveling subtraction. The resultant Ra (arithmetic roughness) and Rq (root mean square roughness) average values were calculated.

Smith, Joseph G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Middle atmosphere ion measurements during January, 1976

Parachute-borne measurements of electrical parameters in the stratosphere and mesosphere are discussed which were made in January 1976 as part of a 'coordinated winter-anomaly program' conducted at Wallops Flight Center, Va. The instruments used included Gerdien condensers, a blunt conductivity probe, and UV lamps for obtaining a measure of atmospheric NO. Measurements of the positive component of electrical conductivity on two 'anomalous' and two 'normal' days are compared, wave-interaction electron densities over the height range from 50 to 90 km are determined for the four days, and the effects of the UV lamps on one 'normal' and one 'anomalous' day are described. The results are shown to support the hypothesis that the enhancements in positive ion conductivity observed on 'anomalous' days are caused by a reduction of the aerosol population that is a 'normal' feature of the stratosphere and mesosphere. A possible scenario for this reduction is considered which involves electric-field transport of aerosol particles out of the upper stratosphere and mesosphere.

Hale, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Future CH4 Budgets as Modelled By A Fully Coupled Earth System Model Using Prescribed GHG Concentrations vs. Interactive CH4 Sources and Sinks

We have used the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model GISS-E2.1 to study the future budgets and trends of global and regional CH4 under different emission scenarios. GISS-E2.1 is one of the few ESMs that can be driven by anthropogenic CH4 emissions, as well as interactive natural sources such as wetlands, and can simulate the tropospheric CH4 chemistry. In frame of the recent short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) assessment by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), we used the GISS-E2.1 model with prescribed long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. In the present study, we have supplemented these simulations using the interactive CH4 sources and sinks in order to quantify the model performance and the sensitivity to CH4 sources and sinks. We have used the Current Legislation (CLE) and the Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) emission scenarios from the Eclipse V6b emission database to simulate the future chemical composition and climate impacts from 2015 to 2050. We have also simulated 1995-2014 in order to evaluate the model performance following the AMAP-SLCF protocol. The prescribed GHG version underestimates the Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) surface CH4 observations during the period between 1995 and 2023 by 1% [-8.4%-2.0%], with a correlation (r) of 0.71 [-0.41 0.99]. The largest underestimations are over the continental emission regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia, while biases are smallest over oceans. On the other hand, the simulation with interactive sources and sinks underestimates the GAW observations more than the prescribed simulation, by 18.5% [-25% -10.4%], with a lower r of 0.36 [-0.82 0.93]. Opposite to the prescribed simulation, the biases are largest over oceans and smaller over the continents, however they are still larger over land than the prescribed simulation. The interactive simulation, with large sources virtually over land and strong sink over oceans, has a land/ocean ratio larger than 1 while the prescribed simulation has this ratio equal to 1 as it distributes the global prescribed CH4 concentration equally in longitude over a given latitude. This clearly shows that the interactive sources and sinks should be represented in models in order to realistically simulate the chemical composition and the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. As expected, the MFR scenario simulates lower global surface CH4 concentrations and burdens compared to the CLE scenario, however in both cases, global surface CH4 and burden continue to increase through 2050 compared to present day. In the CLE scenario, increases are largest over the equatorial belt, in particular over India and East China, while the MFR scenario shows increases over the whole Southern Hemisphere, however much smaller compared to CLE. Finally, the interactive simulation shows that the chemical CH4 sink increases in the CLE scenario, while it slightly decreases in the MFR, leading to a larger CH4 lifetime in the MFR scenario compared to in the CLE scenario.

CH4↗

NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ka-band study: 1988

The Ka-band study team was chartered in late 1987 to bring together all the planning elements for establishing 32 GHz (Ka-band) as the primary downlink frequency for deep-space operation, and to provide a stable baseline from which to pursue that development. This article summarizes the results of that study at its conclusion in mid-1988, and corresponds to material presented to NASA's Office of Space Operations on July 14, 1988. For a variety of reasons, Ka-band is the right next major step in deep-space communications. It offers improved radio metric accuracy through reduced plasma sensitivity and increased bandwidth. Because of these improvements, it offers the opportunity to reduce costs in the flight radio system or in the DSN by allocating part of the overall benefits of Ka-band to this cost reduction. A mission scenario is being planned that can drive at least two and possibly all three of the DSN subnets to provide a Ka-band downlink capability by the turn of the century. The implementation scenario devised by the study team is believed to be feasible within reasonable resource expectations, and capable of providing the needed upgrade as a natural follow-on to the technology development which is already underway.

Layland, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Adaptive artificial neural network for autonomous robot control

The topics are presented in viewgraph form and include: neural network controller for robot arm positioning with visual feedback; initial training of the arm; automatic recovery from cumulative fault scenarios; and error reduction by iterative fine movements.

Michael K Arras↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Sulfur 'Concrete' for Use as a Construction Material on the Lunar Surface

Combining molten sulfur with any number of aggregate materials forms, when solid, a mixture having attributes similar, if not better, to conventional water-based concrete. As a result the use of sulfur "concrete" on Earth is well established, particularly in corrosive environments. Consequently, discovery of troilite (FeS) on the lunar surface prompted numerous scenarios about its reduction to elemental sulfur for use, in combination with lunar regolith, as a potential construction material; not requiring water, a precious resource, for its manufacture is an obvious advantage. However, little is known about the viability of sulfur concrete in an environment typified by extreme temperatures and essentially no atmosphere. The experimental work presented here evaluates the response of pure sulfur and sulfur concrete subjected to laboratory conditions that approach those expected on the lunar surface, the results suggesting a narrow window of application.

Grugel, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS2013

ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap: A Stepwise Approach to Deep Space Exploration

In 2011, ISECG released the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), advancing the "Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" by articulating the perspectives of participating agencies on exploration goals and objectives, mission scenarios, and coordination of exploration preparatory activities. The GER featured a stepwise development and demonstration of capabilities ultimately required for human exploration of Mars. In 2013 the GER was updated to reflect the ongoing evolution of agency's exploration policies and plans, informed by individual agency and coordinated analysis activities that are relevant to various elements of the GER framework as well as coordinated stakeholder engagement activities. For this release of version 2 of the GER in the mid 2013 timeframe, a modified mission scenario is presented, more firmly reflecting the importance of a stepwise evolution of critical capabilities provided by multiple partners necessary for executing increasingly complex missions to multiple destinations and leading to human exploration of Mars. This paper will describe the updated mission scenario, the changes since the release of version 1, the mission themes incorporated into the scenario, and risk reduction for Mars missions provided by exploration at various destinations.

Martinez, Roland↗

NASA NTRS2003

Relationship between Aircraft Noise Contour Area and Noise Levels at Certification Points

The use of sound exposure level contour area reduction has been proposed as an alternative or supplemental metric of progress and success for the NASA Quiet Aircraft Technology program, which currently uses the average of predicted noise reductions at three community locations. As the program has expanded to include reductions in airframe noise as well as reduction due to optimization of operating procedures for lower noise, there is concern that the three-point methodology may not represent a fair measure of benefit to airport communities. This paper addresses several topics related to this proposal: (1) an analytical basis for a relationship between certification noise levels and noise contour areas for departure operations is developed, (2) the relationship between predicted noise contour area and the noise levels measured or predicted at the certification measurement points is examined for a wide range of commercial and business aircraft, and (3) reductions in contour area for low-noise approach scenarios are predicted and equivalent reductions in source noise are determined.

Powell, Clemans A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Trash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) Technology Demonstration and Risk Reduction Updates FY23-FY24

The Next STEP Phase BTrash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) is being developed for a technology demonstration on the International Space Station(ISS) to process common spacecraft consumables trash such as food packaging and clothing to reduce trash storage volume, recover water, safen(e.g. reduce biological activity), and shape the trash for storage, jettison, reuse (e.g.,radiation shielding) and/or recycling. Sierra Space is developing the flight demonstration hardware and National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) continues to conduct risk reduction activities to exploreoperational scenarios, setting the stage for successful on-orbit tests. After the flight demonstration on ISS, the TCPS becomes available to be infused into NASA short-and long-term missions.This paper will discuss the rationale for the updated requirement definitions outlined in the 2023 International Conference on Environmental System TCPS paper and the ongoing risk reduction activities. In addition, drawing from lessons learned in the development of the TCPS, a discussion of other compression technologies will be introduced for various mission types.

Trash Compaction Processing System↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Trash Compaction Processing System (TCPS) Technology Demonstration and Risk Reduction Updates FY23-FY24 Presentation

Trash Compaction Processing System↗

NASA NTRS2018

Challenges and Opportunities for Subsonic Transport X-Plane Acoustic Flight Research

Aircraft system noise aspects of experimental aircraft acoustic flight research are analyzed. Experimental aircraft are seen as a key development step toward the introduction of a full scale low noise subsonic transport in the future, especially when considering an unconventional aircraft configuration integrating a range of advanced noise reduction technologies. Possible design scenarios for an experimental aircraft are considered where the scale of the experimental aircraft relative to the future, full scale aircraft is likely a major cost driver. Aircraft system noise predictions are presented for a NASA modeled Mid- Fuselage Nacelle subsonic transport concept. The predictions are made for the total airframe system noise at 100, 50, 25, and 12.5% scale of the full scale, future version of the concept, both without and then with a set of noise reduction technologies. The noise reduction technologies include the dual use fairing of the Krueger flap, the continuous mold line for the trailing edge high lift flap, and the pod gear concept for the main gear. The predictions are treated as simulations of flight test measurements of an experimental aircraft that are then processed to full scale as flight data would be. The analysis shows that the combined impact of frequency shift, atmospheric absorption, and background noise cutoff is to establish a realistic upper limit on useful frequency from the experimental aircraft noise. The implications for instrumentation requirements are also noted for high frequency, as well as for the challenge of identifying sources that are reduced significantly by the proposed noise reduction technologies. For the experimental acoustic flight research to be most useful for the objectives of improving the prediction of the future full scale aircraft, it is indicated that the scale should be above 75%. As the demonstrator scale approaches 50%, the limitations become more severe for direct impact to the prediction of the full scale future concept.

Thomas, Russell H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Silva, Raquel A.↗