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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Prediction of Solar Energetic Particle Event Peak Proton Intensity Using a Simple Algorithm Based on CME Speed and Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (2014,https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the peak intensity of 14- to 24-MeV protons in a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) may be used in a scheme to predict the intensity of an SEP event at any location at this heliocentric distance. Starting with all 334 CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI database in October 2011 to July 2012, we use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth and the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft using this formula. Since most (85%)of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many SEP events are predicted that are not actually observed. Such cases may be reduced by considering whether type II or type III radio emissions accompany the CMEs, or by selecting faster, wider CMEs. This method is also applied to predict the SEP intensities associated with 1,100 CMEs observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph during 1997-2006 in solar cycle 23. Various skill scores are calculated, which assess different aspects of the skill of the SEP predictions. We conclude that the Richardson et al. (2014) formula has potential as a simple empirical SEP intensity prediction tool.

coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop a physics based predictive toolset RISCS to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 AU; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements.

Zank, G. P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development and Transition of the Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop and transition a physics based predictive toolset called The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 Astronomical Units; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements. The described transition plan is based on a well established approach developed in the Earth Science discipline that ensures that the customer has a tool that meets their needs

Spann, James F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Empirical Model of 10 – 130 MeV Solar Energetic Particle Spectra at 1 AU Based on Coronal Mass Ejection Speed and Direction

We present a new empirical model to predict solar energetic particle (SEP) event integrated and peak intensity spectra between 10 and 130 MeV at 1 AU, based on multi-point spacecraft measurements from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES), and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) satellite experiment. The analyzed data sample includes 32 SEP events occurring between 2010 and 2014, with a statistically significant proton signal at energies in excess of a few tens of MeV, unambiguously recorded at three spacecraft locations. The spatial distributions of SEP intensities are reconstructed by assuming an energy-dependent 2D Gaussian functional form, and accounting for the correlation between the intensity and the speed of the parent coronal mass ejection (CME), and the magnetic-field-line connection angle. The CME measurements used are from the Space Weather Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI). The model performance, including its extrapolations to lower/higher energies, is tested by comparing with the spectra of 20 SEP events not used to derive the model parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the observed and predicted event-integrated and peak intensities at Earth and at the STEREO spacecraft for these events show remarkable agreement, both in the spectral shapes and their absolute values.

Alessandro Bruno↗
NASA NTRS2023

Analyses of ∼0.05-2 Mev Ions Associated With the 2022 February 16 Esp Event Observed by Parker Solar Probe

We present analyses of 0.05–2 MeV ions from the 2022 February 16 energetic storm particle event observed by Parker Solar Probe's (PSP) IS⊙IS/EPI-Lo instrument at 0.35 au from the Sun. This event was characterized by an enhancement in ion fluxes from a quiet background, increasing gradually with time with a nearly flat spectrum, rising sharply near the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME) driven shock, becoming nearly a power-law spectrum, then decaying exponentially afterwards, with a rate that was independent of energy. From the observed fluxes, we determine diffusion coefficients, finding that far upstream of the shock the diffusion coefficients are nearly independent of energy with a value of 10 20 cm 2 /s. Near the shock, the diffusion coefficients are more than one order of magnitude smaller and increase nearly linearly with energy. We also determine the source of energetic particles, by comparing ratios of the intensities at the shock to estimates of the quiet time intensity to predictions from diffusive shock acceleration theory. We conclude that the source of energetic ions is mostly the solar wind for this event. We also present potential interpretations of the near-exponential decay of the intensity behind the shock. One is that we suggest the shock was over-expanding when it crossed PSP and the energetic particle intensity decreased behind the shock to fill the expanding volume. Over-expanding CMEs could well be more common closer to the Sun, and this is an example of such a case.

Joe Giacalone↗
NASA NTRS2023

Analyses of ∼0.05–2 MeV Ions Associated with the 2022 February 16 Energetic Storm Particle Event Observed By Parker Solar Probe

We present analyses of 0.05–2 MeV ions from the 2022 February 16 energetic storm particle event observed by Parker Solar Probeʼs (PSP) ISeIS/EPI-Lo instrument at 0.35 au from the Sun. This event was characterized by an enhancement in ion fluxes from a quiet background, increasing gradually with time with a nearly flat spectrum, rising sharply near the arrival of the coronal mass ejection (CME)–driven shock, becoming nearly a power-law spectrum, then decaying exponentially afterward, with a rate that was independent of energy. From the observed fluxes, we determine diffusion coefficients, finding that far upstream of the shock the diffusion coefficients are nearly independent of energy, with a value of 10 20 cm 2 s −1 . Near the shock, the diffusion coefficients are more than 1 order of magnitude smaller and increase nearly linearly with energy. We also determine the source of energetic particles, by comparing ratios of the intensities at the shock to estimates of the quiet-time intensity to predictions from diffusive shock acceleration theory. We conclude that the source of energetic ions is mostly the solar wind for this event. We also present potential interpretations of the near-exponential decay of the intensity behind the shock. One possibility we suggest is that the shock was over expanding when it crossed PSP and the energetic particle intensity decreased behind the shock to fill the expanding volume. Over expanding CMEs could well be more common closer to the Sun, and this is an example of such a case.

Interplanetary particle acceleration↗
NASA NTRS1994

Statistical analysis of diffuse ion events upstream of the Earth's bow shock

A statistical study of diffuse energetic ion events and their related waves upstream of the Earth's bow shock was performed using data from the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/Ion Release Module (AMPTE/IRM) satellite over two 5-month periods in 1984 and 1985. The data set was used to test the assumption in the self-consistent model of the upstream wave and particle populations by Lee (1982) that the particle acceleration through hydromagnetic waves and the wave generation are directly coupled. The comparison between the observed wave power and the wave power predicted on the observed energetic particle energy density and solar wind parameters results in a high correlation coefficient of about 0.89. The intensity of diffuse ions falls off approximately exponentially with the distance upstream from the bow shock parallel to the magnetic field with e-folding distances which vary from approximately 3.3 R(sub E) to approximately 11.7 R(sub E) over the energy range from 10 keV/e to 67.3 keV/e for both protons and alpha particles. After normalizing the upstream particle densities to zero bow shock distance by using these exponential variations, a good correlation (0.7) of the density of the diffuse ions with the solar wind density was found. This supports the suggestion that the solar wind is the source of the diffuse ions. Furthermore, the spectral slope of the diffuse ions correlates well with the solar wind velocity component in the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (0.68 and 0.66 for protons and alpha particles) which concurs with the notion that the solar wind plays an important role in the acceleration of the upstream particles.

Trattner, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Developments in the Radiation Belt Environment Model

The fluxes of energetic particles in the radiation belts are found to be strongly controlled by the solar wind conditions. In order to understand and predict the radiation particle intensities, we have developed a physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model that considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. Recently, an improved calculation of wave-particle interactions has been incorporated. In particular, the model now includes cross diffusion in energy and pitch-angle. We find that the exclusion of cross diffusion could cause significant overestimation of electron flux enhancement during storm recovery. The RBE model is also connected to MHD fields so that the response of the radiation belts to fast variations in the global magnetosphere can be studied.Weare able to reproduce the rapid flux increase during a substorm dipolarization on 4 September 2008. The timing is much shorter than the time scale of wave associated acceleration.

Fok, M.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1986

Shock acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares

The simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of electrons, protons, and alpha particles are compared to observations of solar energetic particle events. For each event, a unique shock compression ratio in the range approx. 1.6 to 3 produces spectra in good agreement with observation. The range in compression ratios predicts that the more than 5 orders of magnitude spread in electron to proton intensity ratios observed at MeV energies is compressed to about 3 orders of magnitude at an assumed injection energy of 100 keV. The remaining spread can be accounted for with a modest range of injection conditions. The model predicts that the acceleration time to a given energy will be approximately equal for electrons and protons and, for reasonable solar parameters, can be on the order of 1 second to approx. 100 MeV.

Ellison, Donald C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Shock acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares

The simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of electrons, protons, and alpha particles are compared to observations of solar energetic particle events. For each event, a unique shock compression ratio in the range of approximately 1.6-3 produces spectra in good agreement with observation. The range in compression ratios predicts that the more than five orders of magnitude spread in electron-to-proton intensity ratios observed at MeV energies is compressed to about three orders of magnitude at an assumed injection energy of 100 keV. The remaining spread can be accounted for with a modest range of injection conditions. The model predicts that the acceleration time to a given energy will be approximately equal for electrons and protons, and for reasonable solar parameters, can be on the order of 1 s to approximately 100 MeV.

Ellison, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Initial Time Dependence of Abundances in Solar Energetic Particle Events

We compare the initial behavior of Fe/O and He/H abundance ratios and their relationship to the evolution of the proton energy spectra in "small" and "large" gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events. The results are qualitatively consistent with the behavior predicted by the theory of Ng et al. (1999a, b). He/H ratios that initially rise with time are a signature of scattering by non-Kolmogorov Alfven wave spectra generated by intense beams of shock-accelerated protons streaming outward in large gradual SEP events.

Reames, Donald V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Further observational support for the limited-latitude magnetodisc model of the outer Jovian magnetosphere

A distinction is made between the solar-wind-influenced limited-latitude magnetodisk and magnetic anomaly models of the outer Jovian magnetosphere, and an observational comparison of the two models is presented based on Pioneer and Voyager measurements. Predictions of the two models concerning the location of the current sheet as a function of Jovigraphic latitude, System III longitude and radial distance are contrasted, and it is shown that both models can satisfactorily explain the merging of the current sheep crossings by Voyager 1 and 2. Variations in the energetic particle intensities observed on the outbound pass of Voyager 1 and 2 are observed to correspond to scale heights for energetic particle latitudinal confinement consistent with MHD calculations and Pioneer 10 and Voyager magnetic observations only when the scale heights are calculated on the basis of the limited-latitude magnetodisk model. It is thus suggested that the solar wind must have a greater influence on magnetosphere structure than internal longitudinal plasma asymmetry.

Thomsen, M. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗
NASA NTRS2019

Near-Sun Observations of an F-Corona Decrease and K-Corona Fine Structures

Remote observations of the solar photospheric light scattered by electrons (K-corona) and dust (F-corona/Zodiacal light) have been made from the ground during eclipses and from space at 1 AU and as close as 0.3 AU. Previous observations of dust scattering have not confirmed the existence of a theoretically-predicted dust free zone near the Sun. The transient nature of the corona has been well characterized for large events, but questions still remain (e.g. initiation, production of solar energetic particles) and for small events even the structure is uncertain. Here we report on imaging the solar corona, from the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft, during the first two perihelion passes (0.16-0.25 AU), each of ten days duration. The view from these distances is qualitatively similar to the historical view, but there are some significant differences in the details. We have uncovered at short elongations a decrease in the intensity of the F-coronal intensity, which is suggestive of the long-sought dust free zone. Also we have resolved the plasma structure of very small eruptions, which are being frequently ejected from the Sun. They take two forms - the commonly observed magnetic flux ropes or the predicted, but not yet observed, magnetic islands arising from the tearing mode instability in the current sheet. Our observations of the coronal streamer evolution confirm the large-scale topology of the solar corona, but they also reveal that, as recently predicted, streamers are composed of yet smaller sub-streamers channeling continual density fluctuations at all visible scales.

Astronomy and astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1973

Probabilities for the peak flux and fluence of energetic solar protons incident on interplanetary spacecraft

Energetic protons injected into interplanetary space in solar particle events can interfere with spacecraft operations and experiments and can cause permanent degradation of some components. For future long term interplanetary and planetary missions, techniques were developed which use solar particle event data from 1956 through 1970 to predict the probability of exceeding any value of peak proton intensity or mission proton fluence. Dependences on proton energy (near 10 to 100 MeV), heliocentric distance, and phase of the solar cycle are included. The techniques are described and applied to the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 mission.

Divine, N.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Trapped particle and solar proton radiation prediction for ISEE (IME): Mother-daughter mission

The charged particle fluxes incident on spacecrafts in very eccentric orbits were investigated in support of the International Sun-Earth Explorer (International Magnetospheric Explorer) For this purpose, two flightpaths were considered having identical inclinations but different perigee altitudes (240 and 1364 kilometers, respectively). Apogee altitude was approximately the same for both cases (about 22 earth radii). For each of the two perigee altitudes investigated, two nominal trajectories were generated, having identical orbital configurations but with their major axes rotated by 180 deg in the plane of orbit, which resulted in placing the initial apogee into into opposite hemispheres. This was done in order to determine the corresponding variation in the vehicle-encountered particle intensities. Estimates of average energetic solar proton fluxes are given for a one year mission duration at selected integranlenergies ranging from E 10 to E 100 MeV. Results are summarized and discussed.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Radiation Belt Environment Model: Application to Space Weather and Beyond

Understanding the dynamics and variability of the radiation belts are of great scientific and space weather significance. A physics-based Radiation Belt Environment (RBE) model has been developed to simulate and predict the radiation particle intensities. The RBE model considers the influences from the solar wind, ring current and plasmasphere. It takes into account the particle drift in realistic, time-varying magnetic and electric field, and includes diffusive effects of wave-particle interactions with various wave modes in the magnetosphere. The RBE model has been used to perform event studies and real-time prediction of energetic electron fluxes. In this talk, we will describe the RBE model equation, inputs and capabilities. Recent advancement in space weather application and artificial radiation belt study will be discussed as well.

Fok, Mei-Ching H.↗