Synthetic Renewable Data generation for grid reliability assessment with energy storage systems
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Lopez Ramirez, Andres Stephen↗
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ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 1
The ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 1, from 2018 to 2019, focused on the basic Security Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow problem (SCOPF) for a single time period. The Challenge utilized sets of unique datasets generated by the ARPA-E GRID DATA program. Each dataset consisted of a collection of power system network models of different sizes with associated operating scenarios (snapshots in time defining instantaneous power demand, renewable generation, generator and line availability, etc.). The datasets were of two types: Real-Time, which included starting-point information, and Online, which did not. Week-Ahead data is also provided for some cases but was not used in the Competition. Although most datasets were synthetic and generated by GRIDDATA, a few came from industry and were only used in the Final Event. All synthetic Input Data and Team Results for the GO Competition Challenge 1 for the Sandbox, Trial Events 1 to 3, and the Final Event along with problem, format, scoring and rules descriptions are available here. Data for industry scenarios will not be made public. Challenge 1, a minimization problem, required two computational steps. Solver 1 or Code 1 solved the base SCOPF problem under a strict wall clock time limit, as would be the case in industry, and reported the base case operating point as output, which was used to compute the Objective Function value that was used as the scenario score. The feasibility of the solution was provided by the Solver 2 or Code 2, which solves the power flow problem for all contingencies based on the results from Solver 1. This is not normally done in industry, so the time limits were relaxed. In fact, there were no time limits for Trial Event 1. This proved to be a mistake, with some codes running for more than 90 hours, and a time limit of 2 seconds per contingency was imposed for all other events. Entrants were free to use their own Solver 2 or use an open-source version provided by the Competition. Containers, such as Docker, were considered to improve the portability of codes, but none that could reliably support a multi-node parallel computing environment, e.g., MPI, could be found. For more information on the competition and challenge see the "GO Competition Challenge 1 Information" and "GO Competition Challenge 1 Additional Information" resources below.
ACOPF↗
Open Power System Datasets and Open Simulation Engines: A Survey Toward Machine Learning Applications
A major factor behind the success of machine learning (ML) models in multiple domains is the availability and accessibility of large, labeled, and well-organized datasets for training and benchmarking. In comparison, power grid datasets face three major challenges: (i) real-world data is often restricted by regulatory constraints, privacy reasons, or security concerns, making it difficult to obtain and work with; (ii) synthetic datasets, which are created to address these limitations, often have incomplete information and are released using specialized tools, making them inaccessible to the broader community; and, (iii) input-output datasets are difficult to generate through simulation for non-experts because open-source simulators are not known outside the power system community. This survey addresses these challenges by serving as an entry point to publicly available datasets and simulators for researchers venturing in this area. We review the current landscape of open-source power network data, machine models, consumer demand profiles, renewable generation data, and inverter models. We also examine open-source power system simulators, which are crucial for generating high-quality, high-fidelity power grid datasets. We aim to provide a foundation for overcoming data scarcity and advance towards a structured web of datasets and simulators to support the development of ML for power systems.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Using Grid Benchmarks for Dynamic Scheduling of Grid Applications
Navigation or dynamic scheduling of applications on computational grids can be improved through the use of an application-specific characterization of grid resources. Current grid information systems provide a description of the resources, but do not contain any application-specific information. We define a GridScape as dynamic state of the grid resources. We measure the dynamic performance of these resources using the grid benchmarks. Then we use the GridScape for automatic assignment of the tasks of a grid application to grid resources. The scalability of the system is achieved by limiting the navigation overhead to a few percent of the application resource requirements. Our task submission and assignment protocol guarantees that the navigation system does not cause grid congestion. On a synthetic data mining application we demonstrate that Gridscape-based task assignment reduces the application tunaround time.
Frumkin, Michael↗
Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications
This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Monitoring Land Surface Albedo and Vegetation Dynamics Using High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Synthetic Time Series from Landsat and the MODIS BRDF/NBAR/Albedo Product
Seasonal vegetation phenology can significantly alter surface albedo which in turn affects the global energy balance and the albedo warmingcooling feedbacks that impact climate change. To monitor and quantify the surface dynamics of heterogeneous landscapes, high temporal and spatial resolution synthetic time series of albedo and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were generated from the 500-meter Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational Collection V006 daily BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function) / NBAR (Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance) / albedo products and 30-meter Landsat 5 albedo and near-nadir reflectance data through the use of the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). The traditional Landsat Albedo (Shuai et al., 2011) makes use of the MODIS BRDFAlbedo products (MCD43) by assigning appropriate BRDFs from coincident MODIS products to each Landsat image to generate a 30-meter Landsat albedo product for that acquisition date. The available cloud free Landsat 5 albedos (due to clouds, generated every 16 days at best) were used in conjunction with the daily MODIS albedos to determine the appropriate 30-meter albedos for the intervening daily time steps in this study. These enhanced daily 30-meter spatial resolution synthetic time series were then used to track albedo and vegetation phenology dynamics over three Ameriflux tower sites (Harvard Forest in 2007, Santa Rita in 2011 and Walker Branch in 2005). These Ameriflux sites were chosen as they are all quite nearby new towers coming on line for the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), and thus represent locations which will be served by spatially paired albedo measures in the near future. The availability of data from the NEON towers will greatly expand the sources of tower albedometer data available for evaluation of satellite products. At these three Ameriflux tower sites the synthetic time series of broadband shortwave albedos were evaluated using the tower albedo measurements with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) less than 0.013 and a bias within the range of 0.006. These synthetic time series provide much greater spatial detail than the 500 meter gridded MODIS data, especially over more heterogeneous surfaces, which improves the efforts to characterize and monitor the spatial variation across species and communities. The mean of the difference between maximum and minimum synthetic time series of albedo within the MODIS pixels over a subset of satellite data of Harvard Forest (16 kilometers by 14 kilometers) was as high as 0.2 during the snow-covered period and reduced to around 0.1 during the snow-free period. Similarly, we have used STARFM to also couple MODIS Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectances (NBAR) values with Landsat 5 reflectances to generate daily synthetic times series of NBAR and thus Enhanced Vegetation Index (NBAR-EVI) at a 30-meter resolution. While normally STARFM is used with directional reflectances, the use of the view angle corrected daily MODIS NBAR values will provide more consistent time series. These synthetic times series of EVI are shown to capture seasonal vegetation dynamics with finer spatial and temporal details, especially over heterogeneous land surfaces.
Vegetation Index↗
Implicit Large-Eddy Simulations of Compressible Mixing Layers
Implicit large-eddy simulations of the self-similar regions of two compressible mixing layers at high Reynolds number and convective Mach numbers of 0.381 and 0.690 were carried out. Experimental data was used as the input into a synthetic eddy method turbulent inflow boundary condition to initiate simulations. Computational grids with nearly isotropic cells were used and the grid counts ranged from 24 to 270 million points. Agreement with experimental velocity and Reynolds stress data was good given the simplifications of the simulation. The decrease in mixing layer growth rate with increasing compressibility compares well with the literature. Budgets for the Reynolds stress transport equation were extracted from the simulations. It was demonstrated that the grids used did not resolve the dissipation term at the experimental Reynolds number. However, low Reynolds number simulations indicate that the numerical dissipation replaces the physical dissipation and the dissipation term in the transport equation can be represented by the summation term that quantifies the imbalance in the budget. The budgets for the high Reynolds number mixing layers agree well with previous low Reynolds number studies; indicating that the primary mechanism for the reduced growth rate and increased anistropy of the Reynolds stress tensor due to compressibility is a reduction in the pressure-strain and production terms. A new scaling based on the magnitude of the Reynolds stress tensor is proposed. This scaling provides better relative comparisons between the data and shows that the decrease in pressure-strain in the shear component is the primary driver in reducing the transverse normal stress.
turbulence↗
Enhancing power grid resilience to winter storms via generator winterization with equity considerations
Here we develop two-stage stochastic programming models for generator winterization that enhance power grid resilience while incorporating social equity. The first stage in our models captures the investment decisions for generator winterization, and the second stage captures the operation of a degraded power grid, with the objective of minimizing load shed and social inequity. To incorporate equity into our models, we propose a concept called adverse effect probability that captures the disproportionate effects of power outages on communities with varying vulnerability levels. Grid operations are modeled using DC power flow, and equity is captured through mean or maximum adverse effects experienced by communities. We apply our models to a synthetic Texas power grid, using winter storm scenarios created from the generator outage data from the 2021 Texas winter storm. Our extensive numerical experiments show that more equitable outcomes, in the sense of reducing adverse effects experienced by vulnerable communities during power outages, are achievable with no impact on total load shed through investing in winterization of generators in different locations and capacities.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Extending the Utility of Space-Borne Snow Water Equivalent Observations Over Vegetated Areas With Data Assimilation
Snow is a vital component of the earth system, yet no snow-focused satellite remote sensing platform currently exists. In this study, we investigate how synthetic observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) representative of a synthetic aperture radar remote sensing platform could improve spatiotemporal estimates of snowpack. We use a fraternal twin observing system simulation experiment, specifically investigating how much snow simulated using widely used models and forcing data could be improved by assimilating synthetic observations of SWE. We focus this study across a 24° x 37° domain in the western USA and Canada, simulating snow at 250 m resolution and hourly time steps in water year 2019. We perform two data assimilation experiments, including (1) a simulation excluding synthetic observations in forests where canopies obstruct remote sensing retrievals and (2) a simulation inferring snow distribution in forested grid cells using synthetic observations from nearby canopy-free grid cells. Results found that, relative to a nature run, or assumed true simulation of snow evolution, assimilating synthetic SWE observations improved average SWE biases at maximum snowpack timing in shrub, grass, crop, bare-ground, and wetland land cover types from 14 %, to within 1 %. However, forested grid cells contained a disproportionate amount of SWE volume. In forests, SWE mean absolute errors at the time of maximum snow volume were 111 mm and average SWE biases were on the order of 150 %. Here the data assimilation approach that estimated forest SWE using observations from the nearest canopy-free grid cells substantially improved these SWE biases (18 %) and the SWE mean absolute error (27 mm). Simulations employing data assimilation also improved estimates of the temporal evolution of both SWE and runoff, even in spring snowmelt periods when melting snow and high snow liquid water content prevented synthetic SWE retrievals. In fact, in the Upper Colorado River region, melt-season SWE biases were improved from 63 % to within 1 %, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of runoff improved from −2.59 to 0.22. These results demonstrate the value of data assimilation and a snow-focused globally relevant remote sensing platform for improving the characterization of SWE and associated water availability.
Justin Pflug↗
A Physical Model Enhanced Data Driven Method for High-Resolution Residential Load Profile Generation
Residential buildings account for significant energy consumption, creating opportunities to offer grid services. As electric utilities seek to implement effective system operation strategies, understanding residential energy consumption patterns becomes essential; However, the time intervals of load profiles measured by utilities' smart meters are typically from 15 minutes to 60 minutes. The low-resolution data make it hard to extract appliance-level load information, which is critical for providing grid services. This paper presents a load profile generator designed to produce synthetic load profiles for residential buildings that emphasizes the importance of accurate representations of realistic energy consumption patterns. The generator takes realistic low-resolution residential load measurements and weather data as inputs, producing 1-minute interval profiles that match the characteristics of the original profiles. Further, this generator can be used to populate load profiles in areas where actual measurements are limited to improve the ability of utilities to analyze their distribution systems. By providing more high-resolution residential building load profiles, this tool supports electric utilities to enhance their residential building load control strategies and improve overall grid stability.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Relating Convective and Stratiform Rain to Latent Heating
The relationship among surface rainfall, its intensity, and its associated stratiform amount is established by examining observed precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR). The results show that for moderate-high stratiform fractions, rain probabilities are strongly skewed toward light rain intensities. For convective-type rain, the peak probability of occurrence shifts to higher intensities but is still significantly skewed toward weaker rain rates. The main differences between the distributions for oceanic and continental rain are for heavily convective rain. The peak occurrence, as well as the tail of the distribution containing the extreme events, is shifted to higher intensities for continental rain. For rainy areas sampled at 0.58 horizontal resolution, the occurrence of conditional rain rates over 100 mm/day is significantly higher over land. Distributions of rain intensity versus stratiform fraction for simulated precipitation data obtained from cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations are quite similar to those from the satellite, providing a basis for mapping simulated cloud quantities to the satellite observations. An improved convective-stratiform heating (CSH) algorithm is developed based on two sources of information: gridded rainfall quantities (i.e., the conditional intensity and the stratiform fraction) observed from the TRMM PR and synthetic cloud process data (i.e., latent heating, eddy heat flux convergence, and radiative heating/cooling) obtained from CRM simulations of convective cloud systems. The new CSH algorithm-derived heating has a noticeably different heating structure over both ocean and land regions compared to the previous CSH algorithm. Major differences between the new and old algorithms include a significant increase in the amount of low- and midlevel heating, a downward emphasis in the level of maximum cloud heating by about 1 km, and a larger variance between land and ocean in the new CSH algorithm.
Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
A General Framework for Error-controlled Unstructured Scientific Data Compression
Data compression plays a key role in reducing storage and I/O costs. Traditional lossy methods primarily target data on rectilinear grids and cannot leverage the spatial coherence in unstructured mesh data, leading to suboptimal compression ratios. We present a multi-component, error-bounded compression framework designed to enhance the compression of floating-point unstructured mesh data, which is common in scientific applications. Our approach involves interpolating mesh data onto a rectilinear grid and then separately compressing the grid interpolation and the interpolation residuals. This method is general, independent of mesh types and typologies, and can be seamlessly integrated with existing lossy compressors for improved performance. We evaluated our framework across twelve variables from two synthetic datasets and two real-world simulation datasets. The results indicate that the multi-component framework consistently outperforms state-of-the-art lossy compressors on unstructured data, achieving, on average, a 2.3 − 3.5× improvement in compression ratios, with error bounds ranging from 1 × 10 the −6 to 1×10−2. We further investigate impact of hyperparameters, such as grid spacing and error allocation, to deliver optimal compression ratios in diverse datasets.
Gong, Qian↗
Achieving Accuracy Requirements for Forest Biomass Mapping: A Spaceborne Data Fusion Method for Estimating Forest Biomass and Lidar Sampling Error
The synergistic use of active and passive remote sensing (i.e., data fusion) demonstrates the ability of spaceborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multispectral imagery for achieving the accuracy requirements of a global forest biomass mapping mission (+/-20 Mg/ha or 20%, the greater of the two, for at least 80% of grid cells). A data fusion approach also provides a means to extend 3D information from discrete spaceborne LiDAR measurements of forest structure across scales much larger than that of the LiDAR footprint. For estimating biomass, these measurements mix a number of errors including those associated with LiDAR footprint sampling over regional-global extents. A general framework for mapping above ground live forest biomass density (AGB) with a data fusion approach is presented and verified using data from NASA field campaigns near Howland, ME, USA, to assess AGB and LiDAR sampling errors across a regionally representative landscape. We combined SAR and Landsat-derived optical (passive optical) image data to identify contiguous areas (>0.5 ha) that are relatively homogenous in remote sensing metrics (forest patches). We used this image-derived data with simulated spaceborne LiDAR derived from orbit and cloud cover simulations and airborne data from NASA's Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) to compute AGB and estimate LiDAR sampling error for forest patches and 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km grid cells. At both the patch and grid scales, we evaluated differences in AGB estimation and sampling error from the combined use of LiDAR with both SAR and passive optical and with either SAR or passive optical alone. First, this data fusion approach demonstrates that incorporating forest patches into the AGB mapping framework can provide sub-grid forest information for coarser grid-level AGB reporting. Second, a data fusion approach for estimating AGB using simulated spaceborne LiDAR with SAR and passive optical image combinations reduced forest AGB sampling errors 12%-38% from those where LiDAR is used with SAR or passive optical alone. In absolute terms, sampling errors were reduced from 14-40 Mg/ha to 11-28 Mg/ha across all grid scales and prediction methods, where minimum sampling errors were 11, 15, 18, and 22 Mg/ha for 1 km, 500 m, 250 m, and 100 m grid scales, respectively. Third, spaceborne global scale accuracy requirements were achieved whereby at least 80% of the grid cells at 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km grid levels met AGB accuracy requirements using a combination of passive optical and SAR along with machine learning methods to predict vegetation structure metrics for forested areas without LiDAR samples. Finally, using either passive optical or SAR, accuracy requirements were met at the 500 m and 250 m grid level, respectively..
LiDAR↗
An airfoil-based synthetic actuator disk model for wind turbine aerodynamic and structural analysis
Here, this study introduces an airfoil-based refinement technique to enhance the Actuator Disk Model (ADM) for improved wind turbine aerodynamic load prediction and structural simulation in conjunction with Large Eddy Simulations of the wind flow. While ADM offers higher computational efficiency than the more detailed but resource-intensive Actuator Line Model (ALM), it traditionally lacks the resolution needed to capture the localized blade forces accurately. To address this limitation, we introduce a refinement technique that uses airfoil-specific data and employs interpolation-based grid point refinement, achieving ALM-comparable accuracy while preserving ADM's efficiency. Unlike conventional ADM that provides only rotor-disk averaged forces, our synthetic method tracks transient aerodynamic load variations over multiple blade revolutions, allowing us to calculate the distributions of maximum and minimum loads during typical cycles. Applied to the NREL 5 MW reference turbine, our enhanced ADM accurately predicts key aerodynamic parameters (angle of attack, axial velocity, lift, drag, axial and tangential forces along the blades) as well as structural responses (blade tip deflection, maximum stress, and stress concentration). Our results show that the tip deflection ranges from 2.33m (3.69 % of blade length) to 4.28m (6.79 %), with maximum stress concentration occurring near the blade root. This research demonstrates that a refined synthetic ADM approach can serve as a computationally efficient alternative for both aerodynamic analysis and structural simulation of wind turbine blades subjected to realistic wind fields.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
The constitution of the atmospheric layers and the extreme ultraviolet spectrum of hot hydrogen-rich white dwarfs
An analysis is presented of the atmospheric properties of hot, H-rich, DA white dwarfs that is based on optical, UV, and X-ray observations aimed at predicting detailed spectral properties of these stars in the range 80-800 A. The divergences between observations from a sample of 15 hot DA white dwarfs emitting in the EUV/soft X-ray range and pure H synthetic spectra calculated from a grid of model atmospheres characterized by Teff and g are examined. Seven out of 15 DA stars are found to consistently exhibit pure hydrogen atmospheres, the remaining seven stars showing inconsistency between FUV and EUV/soft X-ray data that can be explained by the presence of trace EUV/soft X-ray absorbers. Synthetic data are computed assuming two other possible chemical structures: photospheric traces of radiatively levitated heavy elements and a stratified hydrogen/helium distribution. Predictions about forthcoming medium-resolution observations of the EUV spectrum of selected hot H-rich white dwarfs are made.
Vennes, Stephane↗
An improved land mask for the SSM/I grid
This paper discusses the development of a new land/ocean/coastline mask for use with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data, and other types of data which are mapped to the polar stereographic SSM/I grid. Pre-existing land masks were found to disagree, to lack certain land features, and to disagree with land boundaries that are visible in high resolution sensor imagery, such as imagery from the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on the Earth Resources Satellite (ERS-1). The Digital Chart of the World (DCW) database was initially selected as a source of shoreline data for this effort. Techniques for developing a land mask from these shoreline data are discussed. The resulting land mask, although not perfect, is seen to exhibit significant improvement over previous land mask products.
Martino, Michael G.↗
Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies
Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
WE-Validate: An Open-Source Framework For Wind Power Validation
Grid operators rely on historical weather time series at existing and planned wind power plants to make informed decisions when planning for a future power grid with very high penetration of renewable power. While synthetic wind power time series have been developed based on historical weather models, their validation with actual power production data remains complex due to variations in modeling practices and methodologies. This paper introduces the WE-Validate framework, originally designed for wind speed validation and now enhanced for wind power validation with a graphical user interface to support users with minimal programming experience. Validation of wind power with WE-Validate is based on robust metrics consisting of RMSE, centered RMSE, average bias, average percent bias, mean absolute error, mean absolute percent error, cross correlation, and calculation of ramping magnitude, rate, and duration. This paper showcases WE-Validate with validation of synthetically derived power for a wind plant in Washington state for one month in 2018. Validation of the synthetic power from two comparison data sets compared with observations shows both comparison series have strong correlation with observed across weekly and monthly aggregations while suffering from persistent negative bias. The suite of metrics within WE-Validate facilitates immediate insight into the utility of the comparison data sets through compression across multiple axes. This user-friendly, open-source tool can be extended beyond wind power, making it a valuable resource for system planners and operators in different domains.
Moncheur de Rieudotte, Malcolm P.↗