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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
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DOE OSTI2024

Technological evolution of large-scale blue hydrogen production toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot

Hydrogen potentially has a crucial role in the U.S. transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Learning from large-scale hydrogen projects will boost technological evolution and innovation toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot. We apply experience curves to estimate the evolving costs of blue hydrogen production and to further examine the economic effect on technological evolution of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits for carbon sequestration and clean hydrogen. Learning-by-doing alone can decrease the production cost of blue hydrogen. Without tax incentives, however, it is hard for blue hydrogen production to reach the cost target of $\$1$/kg H 2 . Here we show that the breakeven cumulative production capacity required for gas-based blue hydrogen to reach the $\$1$/kg H 2 target highly depends on tax credit, natural gas price, inflation rate, and learning rates. We make recommendations for hydrogen hub development and for accelerating technological progress toward the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic (PV) Module Technologies: 2020 Benchmark Costs and Technology Evolution Framework Results

This report benchmarks 2020 PV module minimum sustainable price (MSP) via bottom-up manufacturing cost analysis, for established PV technologies in mass production, including crystalline silicon, cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium (di)selenide. We provide technology roadmaps to additional MSP reductions for these PV technologies. Separately, we consider III-V and perovskite PV technologies which are currently in small-scale or pilot production. Finally, this report uses a technology evolution framework (TEF) to analyze drivers of levelized cost of energy reductions, including installed system cost - which is heavily influenced by module price - as well as service life and annual energy yield.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

PV in the circular economy, a dynamic framework analyzing technology evolution and reliability impacts

Rapid, terawatt-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) modules is required to decarbonize the energy sector. Despite efficiency and manufacturing improvements, material demand will increase, eventually resulting in waste as deployed modules reach end of life. Circular choices for decommissioned modules could reduce waste and offset virgin materials. We present PV ICE, an open-source python framework using modern reliability data, which tracks module material flows throughout PV life cycles. We provide dynamic baselines capturing PV module and material evolution. PV ICE includes multimodal end of life, circular pathways, and manufacturing losses. We present a validation of the framework and a sensitivity analysis. Results show that manufacturing efficiencies strongly affect material demand, representing >20% of the 9 million tons of waste cumulatively expected by 2050. Reliability and circular pathways represent the best opportunities to reduce waste by 56% while maintaining installed capacity. Shorter-lived modules generate 81% more waste and reduce 2050 capacity by 6%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Next Stage for Smart Cities: Metrics to Spur an Evolution from Technology for Efficiency to Technology for People's Needs

The Smart Cities movement is about a decade old, energized by the USDOT Smart Cities grant that sparked cities to dream big. Now, 10 years later, and multitudes of conferences and papers later, the biggest question regarding Smart Cities is whether any progress has been made? Smart Cities forums are typically led by the technology sector, either telecommunications, internet access, or most recently artificial intelligence (AI) concerns. Each of these areas have grown and found new applications in the context of Smart Cities, however, these technology applications are just tools toward ends. Do digital communications and assistance enable or foster improved access to real, tactile, non-virtual goods and services such as transportation, food, housing, trash removal, health care, education, social interaction? These and other topics are not 'big tech', but are each critical to quality of life outcomes and are day-to-day necessities, comprising many of the touch points through which citizens interact with municipal agencies. Regarding Smart Cities, relationships have not been fully refined as to how best to merge the emerging generation of technology and related trends with more mundane but essential requirements of tactile services. How should municipal managers and operators bring the range of new technology tools (e.g. on-demand transit, automated vehicles, digital connectivity) to bear to improve functions serving real- physical- non-virtual needs? How do we make cities more efficient in providing access to services and opportunities for improved quality of life? This paper examines the current Smart City movement, emerging trends, and the need to put metrics with respect to the delivery, access, and provision of real-life needs. Using a few case studies of past, present, and projected future scenarios, this paper attempts to bring Smart Cities into the real cities domain, perhaps pushing the moniker away from 'Smart' to 'Efficient' - something that can be measured, counted, and assessed. Through the consideration of the next stage of the evolution of cities from 'Smart' to 'Efficient', the combined efforts and experience of multiple researchers at the NREL and their network of collaborators highlights the need for updates metrics that can be used to start guiding efforts toward productive initiatives to improve quality of life.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Our Renewable Energy Future: The Remarkable Story of How Renewable Energy Will Become the Basis for Our Lives

Our Renewable Energy Future delves into the clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While the book's foundation is technology innovation, it brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy and offers fresh insights into how technology, economics, social dynamics, policy, and geopolitics are forces affecting our energy future. This book is a culmination of Dr Arent's lifelong passion for energy, sustainable development, and renewable energy technology. It covers the journey of evolving technology, economics, political economy and geopolitics of clean energy over the last 40 years and provides insights for the coming decades. From a technology perspective, the book traces the arc of recent innovations and synthesizes innovations across multiple interacting perspectives into a description of Our Renewable Energy Future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

HD ADOPT: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

HD ADOPT is a logit consumer vehicle choice and stock model that analyzes the Class 8 tractor market. The model projects future technology shares, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under input assumptions of technology progress, energy prices, and policies. ADOPT is distinguished from other vehicle choice models through inclusion of non-linear and heterogenous consumer preferences and characterization of the full range of market options rather than use of composite vehicles. In addition, ADOPT has integrated vehicle simulation capabilities that enable performance assessment and optimization of endogenous technology evolution. Optionally, the model is able to adjust this evolution to enforce compliance with fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. Primary results include projection of technology shares and future in-use fleet energy demand, petroleum consumption, and GHG emissions. This enables analysis and comparison of future scenarios of technology improvements, economic conditions, and national policies. Recent new features for the HD modeling also enable examination of different on-board hydrogen fuel storage technologies from the lens of consumer preferences for vehicle cost and range. This report documents current ADOPT capabilities and methodologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metalized Polymer Current Collector for High-Energy Lithium-Ion Batteries with Extreme Fast-Charging Capability

Electric vehicles are pivotal in the global shift toward decarbonizing road transport, with lithium-ion batteries at the heart of this technological evolution. However, the pursuit of batteries capable of extremely fast charging that also satisfy high energy and safety criteria, poses a significant challenge to current lithium-ion batteries technologies. Additionally, the increasing demand for aluminum (Al) and copper (Cu) in electrification, solar energy technologies, and vehicle light-eighting is driving these metals toward near-critical status in the medium term. This study introduces metalized polythylene terephthalate (mPET) polymer films by depositing an Al or Cu thin layer onto two sides of a polyethylene terephthalate film—named mPET/Al and mPET/Cu, as lightweight, cost-effective alternatives to traditional metal current collectors in lithium-ion batteries. We have fabricated current collectors that significantly reduce weight (by 73%), thickness (by 33%), and cost (by 85%) compared with traditional metal foil counterparts. These advancements have the potential to enhance energy density to 280 Wh kg -1 at the electrode level under 10-min charging at 6 C. Through testing, including a novel extremely fast charging protocol across various C-rates and long-term cycling (up to 1000 cycles) in different cell configurations, the superior performance of these metalized polymer films has been demonstrated. Notably, mPET/Cu and mPET/Al films exhibited comparable capacities to conventional cells under extremely fast charging, with the mPET cells showing a 27% improvement in energy density at 6 C and maintaining significant energy density after 1000 cycles. This study underscores the potential of mPET films to revolutionize the roll-to-roll battery manufacturing process and significantly advance the performance metrics of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicles applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Employing Technology to Enable Remote Research Charrettes as a Method for Engaging Industry and Uncovering Best Practices: A Novel Approach for a Post-COVID-19 World

Methods to collect data in construction engineering and management (CEM) research are evolving, informed by recent technological advancements. One such method is research charrettes that allow effective interactions and knowledge sharing between expert industry practitioners and academic researchers, all colocated in a single venue, enabling rich data collection and live communication. A pivot point in technological evolution occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing a global shift to remote work. Hence, planned in-person research charrettes had to shift to remote sessions, relying on virtual conferencing platforms and online data collection mechanisms. Technology-enabled charrettes have allowed the authors to collect significantly richer data sets and ensure a more diverse representation of participants, while saving tremendous amounts of time. With the continuing emergence of technological applications, the world might not go back to functioning fully in person. The authors believe remote research charrettes (RRCs) will still be used in a post-COVID-19 world because of their superior performance. This paper builds on a previous publication that described traditional research charrettes as a method to enhance CEM research a decade ago; it offers a significantly updated and improved RRC method based on the knowledge gained from transitioning a dozen in-person charrettes into RRCs. It also presents performance comparisons between RRCs and traditional charrettes by quantifying metrics indicating how RRCs are more time-efficient and cost-saving, harness more participants from more diverse locations, and enable the collection of richer data sets and four times more industry comments and expert feedback. This paper also provides guidance on the integration of technology with traditional research charrettes, hence contributing to the CEM body of knowledge.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimising the geospatial configuration of a future lithium ion battery recycling industry in the transition to electric vehicles and a circular economy

Rapid electrification of the transport system will generate substantial volumes of Lithium-ion-battery (LiB) waste as batteries reach their end-of-life. Much attention focuses on the recycling processes, neglecting a broader systemic view that considers the concentration of the costs and impacts associated with logistics and transportation. This paper provides an economic, environmental and geospatial analysis of a future LiB recycling industry in the UK. Hitherto, state-of-the-art assessment methods have evaluated life cycle impacts and costs but have not considered the geographical layer of the problem. This paper develops a GSC derived supply chain model for the UK electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle battery industry. Considering both pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical recycling technologies, the optimisation process takes into account anticipated EV volumes, and, based on anticipated near-term technological evolution of LiBs, the evolution of the mix of battery cathodes in production, and presents a number of scenarios to show where LiB recycling facilities should ideally be geographically located. An economic and environmental assessment based on a customised EverBatt model is provided.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing environmental assessment of the circular economy: Challenges and opportunities

The lifecycle assessment (LCA) framework is widely applied to comprehensively evaluate and improve the environmental performance of a circular economy (CE). The advances and application of LCA has been primarily restricted to evaluate the environmental performance of the CE at a micro-level, wherein the CE is implemented for a single product system. However, the CE can be operationalized at two broader levels: the meso–level (for eco-industrial parks) and the macro-level (for a city, state, or nation). Six methodological challenges emerge when applying LCA to a meso- or macro-level CE and remain unaddressed in the existing literature. This includes: selecting a relevant system boundary and functional unit, addressing data paucity and uncertainty, accounting for stakeholder behavior, assessing the trade-offs from renewable energy (RE) use, accounting for manufacturing and technology evolution, and quantifying displacement and rebound. This article proposes potential solutions and research priorities to address the above challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feed the fish: A review of aquaculture feeders and their strategic implementation

Automatic feeders are revolutionizing aquaculture by enabling precise and controlled feeding regimens that optimize growth, reduce feed waste, and enhance the overall efficiency of farming operations. Demand feeders provide some similar benefits but with feeding tailored to fish appetites and, in some cases, feed dispersal without electricity. This review explores the evolution, technological advancements, and applications of these feeders with a survey of recent research. It looks at common feeder designs and compares the pros and cons of five automatic feeder configurations in commercial use today. The article contrasts feeders and feed sizes for farmed species in different life stages and facilities, from hatcheries to ponds and offshore cages. It discusses the importance of species-tailored feeding strategies as well as impacts on fish behavior and health, nutrient delivery, and environmental sustainability. Incorporating sensors and on-site computing enables optimization in feeding algorithms that feeders then implement precisely and reliably. The review compiles results from multiple studies comparing growth rate, weight, and feed conversion ratio (FCR) outcomes from automatic feeders and demand feeders versus traditional hand-feeding regimens. The integration of feeders with real-time monitoring and data analytics is also discussed, highlighting future directions for research and adoption across the industry.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Turbine Generator Reliability Analysis to Reduce Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Costs

Wind turbine major systems (blades, pitch, main bearing, gearbox, and generator) are integrated into a composite system. Specifications for these systems and components are developed to achieve symmetry of operation, avoiding negative interaction. For instance, the main bearing, gearbox, and generator (drivetrain) components are interdependent, functioning in unison for efficient energy production. Hence, wind resource and grid interactions affecting the drivetrain impact the performance and reliability of the turbine generator. This paper discusses generator reliability covering the technology evolution over the last 20 years. EPRI's Wind Network for Enhanced Reliability (WinNER) web-based tool and Shermco Industries databases are presented, and conclusions are drawn regarding failures specific to generator design, manufacturing, and operating conditions. Additionally, this paper compares the life expectancy of stator-fed configurations and doubly fed generator systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Computational Review of Privacy-Preserving Mechanisms for the Smart Grid

Smart grid technologies have rapidly become one of the largest and most comprehensive sources of data for the modern utility. For the most part, data streams are seen as an essential tool that enable utilities to carry their day-to-day business operations, but they also create the need for efficient and secure data management strategies. In the context of the smart grid, ensuring data privacy is becoming an increasing concern due to a combination of factors that range from shifts in operational paradigms and rapid technology evolution to changes in legislation. Furthermore, researchers have highlighted the risks associated with improperly protected energy records. For example, energy consumption data from homes could be used to infer the behaviors and habits of home occupants through activity recognition or user profiling (Fan, 2017), which may lead to unfair service pricing, targeted advertising, or other personal security violations. Similarly, Electric Vehicles’ (EVs) charging metadata could be used to reveal private information about the owner such as their payment methods, preferred charging stations, and other locational and timing information that could be used to reconstruct the vehicle owner’s behaviors. The privacy of user data, even when used for statistical analysis or machine learning training processes, also needs to be carefully considered, as an individual’s private traits may still be vulnerable if their inclusion/exclusion greatly impacts the result or could be linked to a public dataset through cross-reference. The breach of user privacy also has severe impacts for organizations that store, transmit, or work on the data in the form of diminishing the public’s trust in them while potentially incurring legal consequences (e.g., fines and suspensions under the European Union General Data Protection Regulation, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act, etc.). Because of these risks, several privacy-preserving mechanisms are available to help organizations comply with privacy legislations and prevent the unauthorized and malicious use of user data. In light of these concerns, this report focuses on performing a computational review of privacy-preserving mechanisms that have received a significant amount of interest in literature. It specifically focuses on 1) homomorphic encryption, 2) zero-knowledge proofs, 3) differential privacy, and 4) federated learning. It is worth noting that although many of the methods presented in this document rely on cryptographic primitives, their intent is not to provide perfect secrecy, but rather to enable users to maintain privacy, and thus they shall not be compared or equated to other constructs that are aimed to address cybersecurity constructs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗