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The problem of estimating wheat yields for years with unusual planting dates and/or unusual phenological development is investigated. A yield model developed for hard red spring wheat in North Dakota using historical yields for crop reporting districts in conjunction with meteorological predictor variables based on weekly data is assessed.
A universal wheat yield model applicable to both fall- and spring-planted wheat was developed to show separate and joint effects of weather and culture on yields. Data from state experiment stations in a wide range of climates in the U.S. Great Plains were used to build basic relationships among yields, weather, and culture. The application of the model on a macroclimatic scale in the U.S., the U.S.S.R., and India is discussed along with potential improvements.
Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.
Models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate barley yield and spring wheat yield from weather data for Agrophysical units(APU) in North Dakota. The predictor variables are derived from monthly average temperature and monthly total precipitation data at meteorological stations in the cooperative network. The models are similar in form to the previous models developed for Crop Reporting Districts (CRD). The trends and derived variables were the same and the approach to select the significant predictors was similar to that used in developing the CRD models. The APU models show sight improvements in some of the statistics of the models, e.g., explained variation. These models are to be independently evaluated and compared to the previously evaluated CRD models. The comparison will indicate the preferred model area for this application, i.e., APU or CRD.
Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.
This study focuses on winter wheat yield assessment from NASA's Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 (HLS) product and meteorological observations through phenological fitting. Vegetation indices (VIs), namely difference vegetation index (DVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI2), extracted from satellite optical data, are fitted per pixel against accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) using a quadratic function. Accumulated VIs are correlated against winter wheat yields. Results show a better performance from DVI compared to NDVI and EVI2.
Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.
The proceedings of the 1974 Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Wheat-Yield Conference are presented. The state of art of wheat-yield forecasting and the feasibility of incorporating remote sensing into this forecasting were discussed with emphasis on formulating common approach to wheat-yield forecasting, primarily using conventional meteorological measurements, which can later include the various applications of remote sensing. Papers are presented which deal with developments in the field of crop modelling.
A model for estimating wheat yield per acre has been applied to acreage estimates derived from ERTS-1 imagery to project the 1973 wheat yields for a ten county area in southwest Kansas. The results (41.04 million bushels) are within 3 per cent of the preharvest estimates for the same area prepared by the USDA Statistical Reporting Service (39.91 million bushels). The projection from ERTS data is based on a visual enumeration of all detectable wheat fields in the study area and was completed while the harvest was in progress. Visual identification of winter wheat is readily achieved by using a temporal sequence of images (band 5 for Sept.-Oct.; band 5 for Dec.-Jan.; and band 5 and 7 for March-April). Identification can be improved by stratifying the project area into subregions having more or less homogeneous agricultural practices and crop mixes. By doing this, small changes in the spectral appearance of wheat related to soil type, irrigation, etc. can be accounted for. The interpretation rules developed by visual analysis can be automated for rapid computer surveys.
In this work we evaluate the near-surface air temperature datasets from the ERA-Interim, JRA55, MERRA2, NCEP1, and NCEP2 reanalysis projects. Reanalysis data were first compared to observations from weather stations located on wheat areas of the United States and Ukraine, and then evaluated in the context of a winter wheat yield forecast model. Results from the comparison with weather station data showed that all datasets performed well (r2>0.95) and that more modern reanalysis such as ERAI had lower errors (RMSD ~ 0.9) than the older, lower resolution datasets like NCEP1 (RMSD ~ 2.4). We also analyze the impact of using surface air temperature data from different reanalysis products on the estimations made by a winter wheat yield forecast model. The forecast model uses information of the accumulated Growing Degree Day (GDD) during the growing season to estimate the peak NDVI signal. When the temperature data from the different reanalysis projects were used in the yield model to compute the accumulated GDD and forecast the winter wheat yield, the results showed smaller variations between obtained values, with differences in yield forecast error of around 2% in the most extreme case. These results suggest that the impact of temperature discrepancies between datasets in the yield forecast model get diminished as the values are accumulated through the growing season.
A model for estimating wheat yields on the farm level was developed, that integrates the Landsat TM data and agrometeorological information. Results obtained for a test site in southern Brasil for years of 1986 and 1987 show that the vegetation index derived from Landsat TM could account for the 60 to 40 percent wheat-yield variability observed between the two crop years. Compared to results using either the Landsat TM vegetation index or the agrometeorological data alone, the joint use of both types of data in a single model yielded a significant improvement.
A model based on multiple regression was developed to estimate wheat yields for the wheat growing states of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina in Brazil. The meteorological data of these three states were pooled and the years 1972 to 1979 were used to develop the model since there was no technological trend in the yields during these years. Predictor variables were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature.
Five models based on multiple regression were developed to estimate wheat yields for the five wheat growing provinces of Argentina. Meteorological data sets were obtained for each province by averaging data for stations within each province. Predictor variables for the models were derived from monthly total precipitation, average monthly mean temperature, and average monthly maximum temperature. Buenos Aires was the only province for which a trend variable was included because of increasing trend in yield due to technology from 1950 to 1963.
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Several considerations of winter wheat yield prediction using LANDSAT data were discussed. In addition, a simple technique which permits direct early season forecasts of wheat production was described.
Leaf area index and percentage of vegetative cover, two indices of crop yield developed from Landsat multispectral scanning data, are discussed. Studies demonstrate that the Landsat indicators may be as highly correlated with winter wheat yield as estimates based on traditional field sampling methods; in addition, the Landsat indicators may account for variations in individual field yield which are not explainable by meteorological data. A simple technique employing early-season Landsat data to make wheat yield predictions is also considered.
In this study we present a model to forecast wheat yield based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI)and the Growing Degree Days (GDD), presented in Franch et al. (2015), but adapted to Franch et al. (2019) model. Additionally, we explore how the Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and if this parameter adds any value to the model when combined with the optical information. This study is applied toMODIS data at 1km resolution to monitor the national and state level yield of winter wheat in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2019.
Increasing global food demand will require more food production without further exceeding the planetary boundaries, while at the same time adapting to climate change. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models, with improved yield traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes to quantify potential yield gains and associated N requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved yield traits increased yield by 16% with current N fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential, a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil N availability and N use efficiency, along with yield potential.