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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Scenario Discovery Analysis of Drivers of Solar and Wind Energy Transitions Through 2050

Deep human-Earth system uncertainties and strong multi-sector dynamics make it difficult to anticipate which conditions are most likely to lead to higher or lower adoption of renewable energy, and models project a broad range of future solar and wind energy shares across future scenarios. To elucidate these dynamics, we explore a large data set of scenarios simulated from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and use scenario discovery to identify the most significant factors affecting solar and wind adoption by mid-century. We generated a data set of over 4,000 scenarios from GCAM by varying 12 different socioeconomic factors at high and low levels, including assumptions about future energy demand, resource costs, and fossil fuel emissions paths, as well as specific technology assumptions including wind and solar backup requirements and storage costs. Using scenario discovery, we assess the most important factors globally and regionally in creating high fractions of solar and wind energy and explore interconnected effects on other systems including water and non-CO 2 emissions. Globally and regionally, we found that solar and wind-related technology costs were the primary drivers of high wind and solar energy adoption, though a few regions depend heavily on other parameters like carbon capture and storage costs, population and gross domestic product trajectories, and fossil fuel costs. We also identify four key paths to high solar and wind energy by mid-century and discuss their tradeoffs in terms of other outcomes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wind and solar energy droughts: Potential impacts on energy system dynamics and research needs

This Perspective article provides a brief overview of the topic of wind and solar energy droughts (henceforth WSDs). It does not attempt to provide a complete literature review of the subject but rather highlights some of the main concepts associated with WSDs. These include wind and solar energy drought definitions and metrics; meteorological conditions producing WSDs; a comparison of their characteristics with hydrologic droughts and hydropower droughts; model-based and observational datasets useful for WSD analyses; the linkage of WSDs to transmission, storage, and demand response; the potential impacts of WSDs vs energy demand variations; wind and solar flood events; WSD predictability; WSD dependency on climate modes of variability; climate change impacts on WSDs; and the special challenge of evaluating the characteristics of WSDs in developing countries that have limited historical data available. Finally, the manuscript identifies research areas that the authors believe would provide immediate benefit to energy system planners.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Effects of Climate Change and Solar Radiation Modification on Renewable Energy Resources

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a possible deliberate approach to decrease or reflect incoming solar radiation with the goal of reducing global temperatures, which have increased over the last decades due to high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Stratospheric aerosol injection, specifically, has shown potential for successfully reducing global temperatures in climate model simulations. Despite the growing literature in the areas of climate change and SRM, their combined effects on renewable energy generation, a climate change mitigation strategy, have not been addressed. In this review paper, we synthesize previous literature on the possible effects of climate change and SRM on renewable energy resources (i.e., wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and hydropower), review the status of climate change and SRM research, and explore potential effects of SRM on renewable energy primarily in the Continental United States (CONUS), but with global perspectives as well. We discuss the research challenges and impacts of SRM on renewable energy and conclude by discussing the potential implications of SRM for renewables for SRM governance and policy. This work is not advocating for or against SRM. It is highlighting an important potential impact for future decision makers.

Kumler, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Viability Assessment of Wind and Solar Renewable Energy Generation in Support of Nationwide Vehicle Electrification

In 2022, the U.S. transportation sector was the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, with the combination of passenger and commercial vehicles contributing 80% of these emissions. As adoption of passenger electric vehicles continues to climb, sights are being set on the electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicle (HDCV) fleets. The sustainability of these shifts relies in part on the addition of significant renewable energy generation resources to both bolster the grid in the face of increased demand, and to prevent a shift in the source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the grid, as opposed to a true net reduction. Additionally, it is necessary to quantify the variations in economic viability across the country for these technologies as it pertains to their productive capabilities. Doing so will encourage investment and ensure that the transition to electrified HDCV fleets is commercially viable, as well as sustainable. In an effort to meet these goals, multiple computational frameworks are used to locate suitable land for renewable infrastructure development, and to quantify spatiotemporal variations in the potential energy generation and financial viability of development sites across the Unites States. First, the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion tool (OR-SAGE) is used to assess the suitability of land for potential wind and solar energy development across the contiguous U.S. From there, resource data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) are used in concert with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Potential (ReV) model to calculate the variation in potential generation capacity for each resource. Additionally, the capital and operational expenditures are calculated for an example configuration of each renewable technology. These measures are then used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of potential sites. All of these results are then processed and analyzed to determine where in the U.S. solar and wind energy are most viable. This viability is based on available generation potential, consistency and stability of energy generation over time, and economic viability with respect to LCOE.

Miller, Brandon [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000300169201)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clean Energy Employment Impacts

Wind (land-based), solar (photovoltaics), and energy efficiency (buildings) are three key clean energy technologies identified in the NREL State-Level Employment Projections for Four Clean Energy Technologies in 2025 and 2030 report with continued growth potential. This document outlines how communities and regions will experience differing levels of employment impacts due to resource, labor market, and geographic factors.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inner southern magnetosphere observation of Mercury via SERENA ion sensors in BepiColombo mission

Mercury’s southern inner magnetosphere is an unexplored region as it was not observed by earlier space missions. In October 2021, BepiColombo mission has passed through this region during its first Mercury flyby. Here, we describe the observations of SERENA ion sensors nearby and inside Mercury’s magnetosphere. An intermittent high-energy signal, possibly due to an interplanetary magnetic flux rope, has been observed downstream Mercury, together with low energy solar wind. Low energy ions, possibly due to satellite outgassing, were detected outside the magnetosphere. The dayside magnetopause and bow-shock crossing were much closer to the planet than expected, signature of a highly eroded magnetosphere. Different ion populations have been observed inside the magnetosphere, like low latitude boundary layer at magnetopause inbound and partial ring current at dawn close to the planet. These observations are important for understanding the weak magnetosphere behavior so close to the Sun, revealing details never reached before.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality

The climate commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 in China has been announced recently. In the context of pursuing carbon neutrality, sharing similar sources as greenhouse gases, aerosol particle and precursor emissions are projected to substantially decrease in China, which can potentially have a great impact on climate. Here, we investigate the effects of future aerosol reductions, because of achieving carbon neutrality, on solar and wind energy in China by using an earth system model. We show that significant reductions in aerosol emissions, particularly in eastern China, lead to increases in the surface downwelling shortwave radiation, surface air temperature and wind speed, which can further enhance the potential of solar and wind energy production. The findings underline that the pursuit of carbon neutrality can yield co-benefits of not only mitigating climate change and air pollution but also fortifying the stability of renewable energy sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulation of wind and solar energy generation over California with E3SM SCREAM regionally refined models at 3.25 km and 800 m resolutions

This study presents wind and solar power generation estimates derived from the US Department of Energy’s Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) Regionally Refined Models (RRM) over California at 3.25 km and 800 m horizontal resolutions, using the Python wrapper for the System Advisor Model (PySAM). The resulting wind and solar generation estimates are compared to monthly capacity factors reported to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, 3 km resolution) forecast model, and E3SM North American regionally refined model (NARRM, 25 km resolution). We systematically assess the impacts of generation modeling assumptions, meteorological models, and horizontal resolution. Results show that resolution plays a dominant role for wind energy: increasing from 25 to 3.25 km brings qualitative and quantitative improvements, most notably by resolving the phase error in the seasonal cycle found in coarser simulations. However, further refinement to 800 m offers minimal gains. SCREAM performs better than HRRR for solar power generation in single- and dual-axis tracking systems, likely due to more accurate surface radiation. The sensitivity of PySAM to system configuration, particularly for axis-tracking modeling in photovoltaics, is also highlighted. Overall, SCREAM-RRM shows strong potential for high-resolution energy assessments, with future progress depending on more in situ observations and clearer quantification of uncertainties in generation modeling.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence in the Expanding Solar Wind: Residual Energy and Intermittency

We conduct 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of decaying turbulence in the context of the solar wind. To account for the spherical expansion of the solar wind, we implement the expanding box model. The initial turbulence comprises uncorrelated counterpropagating Alfvén waves and exhibits an isotropic power spectrum. Our findings reveal the consistent generation of negative residual energy whenever nonlinear interactions are present, independent of the normalized cross helicity σc and compressibility. The spherical expansion facilitates this process. The resulting residual energy is primarily distributed in the perpendicular direction, with S 2 (b) − S 2 (u) ∝ l ⊥ or equivalently –E r ∝ k$^{–2}_{⟂}$. Here S 2 (b) and S 2 (u) are second-order structure functions of magnetic field and velocity respectively. In most runs, S 2 (b) develops a scaling relation S 2 (b) ∝ $l$$^{1/2}_{⊥}$ (E b ∝ k$^{–3/2}_{⟂}$). In contrast, S 2 (u) is consistently shallower than S 2 (b), which aligns with in situ observations of the solar wind. We observe that the higher-order statistics of the turbulence, which act as a proxy for intermittency, depend on the initial σc and are strongly affected by the expansion effect. Generally, the intermittency is more pronounced when the expansion effect is present. Finally, we find that in our simulations, although the negative residual energy and intermittency grow simultaneously as the turbulence evolves, the causal relation between them seems to be weak, possibly because they are generated on different scales.

Interplanetary turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind and Solar Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience

Wind-solar-storage hybrid power plants represent a significant and growing share of new proposed projects in the United States (U.S.). Their uptake is supported by increasing renewable energy market share, technical abilities for dispatch and control, and decreasing wind, solar, and battery storage costs. Simultaneously, generation and storage resources are increasingly used in distributed power systems. While concerns around the reliability of the aging, transforming U.S. electric grid are growing, diversifying energy resources through hybridization or spatial distribution provides an opportunity to enhance power system resilience compared to single-source generation. Understanding where to build hybrids for resilience value, rather than bulk power supply, has not been fully explored in previous studies. Therefore, in this study, we complete a national complementarity analysis to identify areas in the U.S. that are particularly suited for wind-solar hybrid power plant development. We show the importance of seasonal and diurnal patterns in assessing complementarity, and identify that regions in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast are particularly suited for hybrid power plants. We demonstrate the resilience value of hybridization for a reference system based near Memphis, Tennessee, and show optimal sizing of wind, solar, and storage assets given 1.0 and 0.9 critical load factors. Results indicate that pairing wind and solar assets better meet constant load demand and reduce storage requirements compared to solar alone. These results enable future work integrating complementarity metrics in resilience frameworks and indicate a need for more finer resolution of local resource, demand, and hazard data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Public perceptions of wave energy development on the west coast of North America: Risks, benefits, and coastal attachment

While solar and wind energy continue to grow as significant sources of renewable energy, a global energy transition away from fossil fuels will require an expanding portfolio of generating resources. Marine renewable energy has the potential to contribute greatly in the coming decades, as the more predictable nature of wave energy can support the resiliency of the power grid and complement solar and inland wind generation. Yet, the broad deployment of marine energy technologies like wave energy will depend on public support, making it critical to identify the relevant factors associated with public attitudes and risk/benefit perceptions. This paper draws on social representations theory to specifically examine perceptions of wave energy on the west coast of North America, a site chosen because of the high suitability for wave energy generation and the fact that one of only three wave energy test sites in the world is under development off the coast of Oregon. Using an online survey in June 2020, we recruited a sample of 2000 respondents from California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We found a majority of respondents held positive attitudes to wave energy, but respondents also had low familiarity – with a quarter of respondents lacking sufficient information to form an opinion. We used logistic regression to identify factors correlated with wave energy attitudes, finding that respondents who were more supportive of wind and solar energy, more optimistic about new technology, and reported more familiarity with wave energy were significantly more likely to have a positive impression of wave energy. Respondents with higher levels of place attachment to coastal areas were more split, as they perceived higher benefits of wave energy – but also higher risks. Our results indicate broad appeal of wave energy on the west coast, but we caution policymakers and developers to not take initial siting processes for granted. As experience has shown for offshore wind, broad appeal does not guarantee a smooth siting process in a local context. Furthermore, the role of place attachment to coastal areas must be taken seriously or risk alienating local communities.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wind Conditions for Solar Energy Facility Design Based on Field Measurements at Nevada Solar One

This study characterises near-surface wind conditions at the Nevada Solar One (NSO) concentrated solar power plant using two years of measurements from a 15-m mast located 30 m west of the solar arrays. The surrounding terrain is fairly flat within 3 km, but nearby solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) installations introduce strong directional wind inhomogeneity, which motivates a sector-based analysis that distinguishes undisturbed inflow from waked flow. The analysis uses data from three sonic anemometers to assess whether turbulence in the surface layer can be represented as Gaussian and whether standard surface-layer scaling remains valid below 10 m height. The roughness length and displacement height are estimated for twelve directional sectors under near-neutral wind conditions, and all three velocity components show departures from Gaussian behaviour. Spectral analysis indicates that the turbulence contains low-frequency fluctuations with amplitudes higher than those predicted by standard models such as the Kaimal model or the Simiu and Scanlan model. The study introduces a new turbulence spectral model based on the eddy-surface-layer framework to better represent near-surface wind turbulence. The analysis further quantifies the influence of the surrounding power plants on mean wind profiles, one-point spectra, and vertical coherence for all velocity components. The solar collector arrays located 30 m east of the mast significantly modify the turbulence structure, whereas PV installations situated a few hundred metres away have only a limited influence on the turbulence measured at the mast. These findings highlight the limitations of conventional turbulence models for near-surface wind over solar infrastructure and provide improved parameterisations to support the structural design. The implications for the structural response of parabolic troughs and PV modules to such turbulence remain uncertain and require further investigation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Wind Loading on CSP Collectors Caused by Turbulent Wind Fluctuations: Insights from a 2-Year Field Campaign

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is a promising solar technology for electricity generation with thermal energy storage and with the additional benefit of industrial heat production. Wind loading on CSP collector structures, such as parabolic troughs or heliostats, is one of the primary drivers of their structural design costs. In particular, dynamic wind loading is a major source of uncertainty in the collector design process, which heavily relies on wind tunnel testing. In the field, the turbulent nature of the incoming wind creates fluctuating loads (support structure loads and resulting mirror deflections) on the collectors, with impacts on fatigue lifetime and optical performance. As is well known, wind tunnel tests cannot entirely reproduce the complex turbulent wind conditions typically observed at full-scale plants. To shed light on this topic, NREL initiated a field campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) powerplant that uses parabolic troughs as solar collectors. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs. We use the published 2-year dataset of high-resolution combined wind and structural loads measurements [1] to characterize the dynamic structural wind response. For quantifying dynamic wind loading, we apply the concept of admittance functions, which are spectral transfer functions that couple the turbulent wind to resulting structural loads (aerodynamic admittance), and to the structural response (mechanical admittance). In practice, aerodynamic admittance describes which turbulent eddy sizes are effective in creating structural loads. The mechanical admittance describes in which frequency ranges these loads are reinforced or dampened by the structure. While these functions are an established concept in civil engineering, their recent application to a single full-scale heliostat [2] proved their broader applicability to CSP collectors. Here, we present a characterization of admittance functions for full-scale parabolic trough collectors and show how wind characteristics (mean wind speed and direction, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent length scales), the sun-tracking trough angle, and row position alter the admittance functions. Further, we study to which extent the admittance functions are universal for a specific trough geometry and how our findings compare to reported heliostat results. References [1] https://data.openei.org/submissions/5938. [2] Blume, K., Roger, M., and Pitz-Paal, R. 2023b. "Simplified analytical model to describe wind loads and wind-induced tracking deviations of heliostats." Solar Energy, 256, 96-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2023.03.055.

admittance functions↗