NASA NTRS · 20170008226
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Wallace, Mark S.. 2015-08-10. A Massively Parallel Bayesian Approach to Planetary Protection Trajectory Analysis and Design. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20170008226
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The NASA Planetary Protection Office has levied a requirement that the upper stage of future planetary launches have a less than 10(exp -4) chance of impacting Mars within 50 years after launch. A brute-force approach requires a decade of computer time to demonstrate compliance. By using a Bayesian approach and taking advantage of the demonstrated reliability of the upper stage, the required number of fifty-year propagations can be massively reduced. By spreading the remaining embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo simulations across multiple computers, compliance can be demonstrated in a reasonable time frame. The method used is described here.