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DOE OSTI2023

Eastern Interconnection Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Study Report

To meet the government mandates such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), conventional synchronous generators with rotating mass are being displaced by inverter-based resources (IBRs), leading to high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). As a result, the inherent properties and characteristics of the transformed generation mix may significantly impact the grid behaviour, and it is of paramount significance that the impact and the consequences of the resource mix change is thoroughly understood to adopt measures to maintain reliable grid operations. Of great concern is the inter-area low-frequency oscillation, which usually propagates through a large region and has a system-wide impact. Such oscillations may lead to unnecessary or inadvertent tripping of generators, that may be simply reacting to the oscillation originating from geographically remote sites. Such tripping of generators can lead to cascading outages, system split and load loss events. Over the years, several system-wide oscillation events have been observed across all three North American interconnections. This project titled Wide-area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study, sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE), aims to conduct the required research to capture and investigate the potential changes in wide-area oscillatory performance of the system as a result of resource mix transition. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted this research and technical staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as advisors to the project. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the power system wide-area oscillatory behaviours, as a result of the generation-mix changes due to the increased penetration of RES in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). The analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the EI system. This research conducted in this project evaluates the wide-area oscillatory behaviour of the EI, using a model-based approach for potential future resource mixes, and the measurement-based analysis with 21-month phasor measurement unit (PMU) time series. The oscillation modes in EI system along with the impact of the changes of the generation mix on the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of the oscillations have been studied.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

MWRRETV2 Value-Added Product Report: The Retrieval of Liquid Water Path and Precipitable Water Vapor from Microwave Radiometer – 3-Channel (MWR3C) Data Sets

This report provides a short description of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Microwave Radiometer – 3-Channel (MWR3C) Retrieval (MWRRETV2) Value-Added Product (VAP) algorithm. MWRRETV2 is an updated version of MWRRET, which extends the physical-iterative retrieval of liquid water path (LWP) and precipitable water vapor PWV) to 3-channel microwave radiometers beyond ARM's original standard 2-channel (23-and 31-GHz) systems. The 89-GHz channel in the 3-channel microwave radiometers has approximately three times the sensitivity to liquid water as the 31-GHz channel, thus improving LWP retrieval accuracy when LWP is less than 100 g/m2. We present a general overview of the technique, input parameters, and output products, and describe data quality checks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Contribute to the Recent Decline in Precipitation Over the U.S. Southwest

Abstract The winter‐spring precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) decreased since 1980. It is frequently attributed to Pacific internal decadal variability, but recent studies found anthropogenic aerosols (AA) can also induce a transition to a negative Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) phase. We revisit the attribution of SWUS drying by quantifying the contributions of anthropogenically forced decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Applying a low‐frequency component analysis to observations, Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) all‐forcings and single‐forcing large ensembles, we find up to 42% of the observed precipitation trend to be related to the AA‐induced negative PDV‐like pattern, which is driven by the emission shift from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere. In CESM2, other radiative forcings counteract the influence of AA, but it remains unclear whether the model correctly simulates this balance. This implies that the near‐future trajectories of these forcings, in particular Asian aerosols, are important for projections of SWUS precipitation.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower Hybrid: Site Suitability Assessment

In 2024, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) initiated a technical-assistance project to support Cat Creek Energy, LLC, (CCE) in evaluating site suitability for the proposed Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) project in south-central Idaho near Mackay Reservoir. The Corral Summit facility incorporates battery storage and photovoltaic (PV) solar arrays in a Trybrid configuration to deliver large-volume long-duration (LVLD) storage solutions for rural electric cooperatives in eastern Idaho. The evaluation process focused on determining the most-suitable location for the upper reservoir of the PSH system, guided by a comprehensive assessment framework spanning multiple categories, including physical characteristics, environmental constraints, building infrastructure, regulatory constraints, cultural resources and sensitivity, social factors, and power market and grid integration. Each site was analyzed based on a ranking scale (0–1), which scores ranging from “severely disfavored” to “highly favored,” allowing detailed comparisons of site-specific conditions. Categories such as hydraulic head, utilities corridor, land ownership, and transmission-grid limitations emerged as key contributors to the overall assessment. Site 2 (Idaho Trust) demonstrated a slight advantage over Site 1 (Bureau of Land Management) primarily due to favorable outcomes in regulatory constraints, building infrastructure, and power-market integration. However, Site 1 outperformed Site 2 in factors related to physical characteristics and social factors. The report emphasizes the need for further evaluation of both sites before clear determination of which site is preferred, due to the limited information available on either site at the time of this report. Key areas of evaluation to clearly define the preferred site are ecological impacts, cultural-resource surveys, and economic-feasibility assessments. For successful project execution, recommended follow-up actions include seismic and geotechnical surveys, groundwater and habitat monitoring, regulatory reviews of water rights and right-of-way agreements, cultural engagement with local tribal governments, and enhanced stakeholder strategies. These efforts will ensure the Corral Summit Trybrid facility meets local energy needs while balancing environmental, social, and regulatory responsibilities.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Corral Summit Pumped Storage Hydropower Hybrid Site Suitability Assessment (Rev.1)

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An outbreak of Septoria canker caused by Sphaerulina musiva on Populus trichocarpa in eastern Oregon

Branch and stem cankers were observed in a Populus trichocarpa L. plantation in late summer of 2018 near Boardman, Oregon USA. Stem cankers were flat faced with swollen margins and the bark in the center of the cankers was black and depressed (Figure 1). 254 out of 1054 trees (25%) observed had cankers. Symptomatic stems and branches from several trees were brought to Oregon State University for identification. Cankers were surface-disinfested in a 5% NaOCl for 2 min and rinsed twice in deionized H 2 O for 2 min. Bark was removed from cankers and pieces of wood at the margin between healthy and necrotic tissue were plated on KV8 medium amended with streptomycin sulfate at 100 mg liter–1 and chloramphenicol (Amresco) at 240 mg liter–1 (Dunnell and LeBoldus 2017). Eight sporulating colonies typical of Sphaerulina musiva (Peck) Quaedvlieg, Verkley, and Crous (Syn. = Septoria musiva Peck) developed within 7 days of plating. S. musiva was identified by morphological characteristics (conidium size = 28–54 × 3.5–4 µm) and confirmed by comparing the sequence of the ITS region (accession numbers: MN275180-MN275187) to JX901814 with 99% identity. We tested 13 additional cankers collected from the plantation using S. musiva specific primers (Abraham et al. 2018). Eight of the 13 samples were positive for S. musiva DNA. Dormant cuttings from three genotypes of P. trichocarpa (BESC-184; BESC-259; BESC-388) were collected in a field planting near Oregon State University (OSU). These were planted in cone-tainers in the greenhouse at OSU and grown to approximately 30 cm in height. Four replicates of each of the three genotypes were inoculated in the greenhouse with one Oregon isolate using a suspension of 1x10 6 conidia ml-1. The entire tree was sprayed until runoff using a spray bottle (LeBoldus et al. 2010). The experimental design was a completely randomized design with four replicates of each genotype. Sterile deionized H 2 O was sprayed on one control tree of each genotype. The mean number of resulting cankers were BESC-184 = 11, BESC-259 = 1, and BESC-388 = 13.75. The controls did not develop any cankers. The pathogen was successfully reisolated from one canker from each genotype. Sphaerulina musiva can cause severely damaging leaf spot and stem canker diseases in the eastern and central USA and Canada (Bier 1939; Herath et al. 2016). Susceptible Populus species and hybrids develop cankers which can girdle and weaken stems, leading to breakage or tree death (Bier 1939). A previous survey of the region did not detect S. musiva (Newcombe et al. 1995). This outbreak of Septoria canker underscores the potential threat of this pathogen to P. trichocarpa in the Pacific Northwest where it is a keystone species in riparian ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Entrainment–Mixing Characteristics through Direct Comparisons of Drop Size Distributions Using In Situ Observations from ACE-ENA

Abstract Constraining the impacts of entrainment and associated mixing (i.e., entrainment–mixing) on cloud properties continues to be difficult, partly due to observational uncertainties as well as a lacking consensus of which methodologies for diagnosing entrainment–mixing are most appropriate. This study introduces a novel method to evaluate the presence and degree of inhomogeneous and homogeneous mixing using ∼100 h of in situ observations from a research aircraft over the northeastern Atlantic. Specifically, drop size distributions are compared between regions containing negligible and significant entrainment for select flight legs, making a direct characterization of the degree of homogeneous and inhomogeneous mixing possible. A measure of drop concentration variance is used as a proxy variable to diagnose entrainment–mixing. Results correspond well with entrainment–mixing metrics, showing lower Damköhler numbers where drop size distributions shift toward smaller drop sizes (i.e., inhomogeneous mixing) and greater transition length scales where drop size distributions do not (i.e., homogeneous mixing). Inhomogeneous mixing occurs in most samples from Aerosol and Cloud Experiment in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) (regardless of homogeneous mixing frequencies increasing with increasing spatial resolution from ∼100 to ∼10 m) and is associated with decreased drop size relative dispersion and both greater aerosol and drop concentrations compared with homogeneous mixing. Precipitating clouds have a greater frequency of homogeneous mixing compared with nonprecipitating clouds. The proposed methodology is similarly applied to in situ observations of southeast Pacific stratocumulus, shallow convective clouds over central Oklahoma and low-level clouds over the Southern Ocean. All four locations are primarily dominated by inhomogeneous mixing with minimal variability among each region.

Clouds↗

DOE OSTI2019

North American Winter Dipole: Observed and Simulated Changes in Circulations

In recent years, a pair of large-scale circulation patterns consisting of an anomalous ridge over northwestern North America and trough over northeastern North America was found to accompany extreme winter weather events such as the 2013–2015 California drought and eastern U.S. cold outbreaks. Referred to as the North American winter dipole (NAWD), previous studies have found both a marked natural variability and a warming-induced amplification trend in the NAWD. In this study, we utilized multiple global reanalysis datasets and existing climate model simulations to examine the variability of the winter planetary wave patterns over North America and to better understand how it is likely to change in the future. We compared between pre- and post-1980 periods to identify changes to the circulation variations based on empirical analysis. It was found that the leading pattern of the winter planetary waves has changed, from the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode to a spatially shifted mode such as NAWD. Further, the potential influence of global warming on NAWD was examined using multiple climate model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Simulation of Atmospheric Blocking in a High‐Resolution Earth System Model: Projected Changes and Implications for Extreme Weather Events

Atmospheric blocking is closely linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events. However, low-resolution Earth system models often underestimate the frequency of blocking, undermining confidence in future projections. Here, in this study, we use the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR; 25 km atm and 10 km ocean) to show that CESM-HR reduces biases in atmospheric blocking for both winter and summer, particularly for events lasting longer than 10 days. This improvement is partly due to reduced sea surface temperature biases at higher resolution. Additionally, applying a bias correction to the 500 hPa geopotential height further enhances blocking frequency simulations, highlighting the crucial role of the mean state. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, CESM-HR projects a decrease in wintertime blocking over regions such as the Euro-Atlantic and Chukchi-Alaska, consistent with previous studies. In contrast, summer blocking is expected to become more frequent and persistent, driven by weakened zonal winds. The blocking center shifts from historical locations over Scandinavia and eastern Russia to central Eurasia, significantly increasing blocking over the Ural region. Summer blocking frequency over the Scandinavia-Ural region may eventually surpass historical winter blocking over the Euro-Atlantic. This increase in summer blocking could exacerbate summer heatwaves in a warming climate, making severe heatwaves, like those observed recently, more common in the future.

Atmospheric blocking↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract. Recent studies suggested significant impacts of boreal cryosphere changes on wintertime air stagnation and haze pollution extremes in China. However, the underlying mechanisms of such a teleconnection relationship remains unclear. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate dynamic processes leading to atmospheric circulation and air stagnation responses to Arctic sea ice changes. We conduct four climate sensitivity experiments by perturbing sea ice concentrations (SIC) and corresponding sea surface temperature (SST) in autumn and early winter over the whole Arctic and three subregions in the climate model. The results indicate distinct responses in circulation patterns and regional ventilation to the region-specific Arctic changes, with the largest increase of both the probability (by 132 %) and the intensity (by 30 %) of monthly air stagnation extremes being found in the experiment driven by SIC and SST changes over the Pacific sector of the Arctic (the East Siberian and Chukchi seas). The increased air stagnation extremes are mainly driven by an amplified planetary-scale atmospheric teleconnection pattern that resembles the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) pattern. Dynamical diagnostics suggest that convergence of transient eddy forcing in the vicinity of Scandinavia in winter is largely responsible for the amplification of the teleconnection pattern. Transient eddy vorticity fluxes dominate the transient eddy forcing and produce a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly near Scandinavia and wave train propagation across Eurasia to the downstream regions in East Asia. The piecewise potential vorticity inversion analysis reveals that this long-range atmospheric teleconnection of Arctic origin takes place primarily via the middle and upper troposphere. The anomalous ridge over East Asia in the middle and upper troposphere worsens regional ventilation conditions by weakening monsoon northwesterlies and enhancing temperature inversions near the surface, leading to more and stronger air stagnation and pollution extremes over eastern China in winter. Ensemble projections based on state-of-the-art climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) corroborate this teleconnection relationship between high-latitude environmental changes and midlatitude weather extremes, though the tendency and magnitude vary considerably among each participating model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A general framework for nitrogen deposition effects on soil respiration in global forests

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have altered atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to global forests, affecting carbon dioxide emissions from soils (soil respiration or SR) – one of the largest land-atmosphere carbon fluxes. However, experimental studies have demonstrated both positive and negative effects of N deposition on SR in global forests, leading to debates on how N deposition increases or decreases SR. We developed a framework for generalizing SR responses to N deposition using synthesized data from 168 N addition experiments worldwide and observed SR across the global natural N deposition gradient. The findings indicate that N deposition decreased SR in 2.9% of global forested areas, particularly in eastern China, western Europe, and the eastern USA. However, the net effect of N deposition increased the global forest SR by ~5% (1.7 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ). If N pollution could be effectively controlled, global forest SR would decrease, potentially contributing to a reduction in the terrestrial carbon emissions.

Cen, Xiaoyu [National Forestry and Grassland Admin↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prototype Hanford Barrier Performance Monitoring Report: Fiscal Year 2024

This report provides an annual update on performance monitoring of the Prototype Hanford Barrier (PHB) at the Hanford Site. The PHB is part of a long-term study that serves as the scientific basis for many of the evapotranspiration-capillary barrier designs currently used globally and for future engineered barrier designs planned for remedial actions over waste and demolition sites at the Hanford Site. The PHB allows us to identify potential future issues and develop better monitoring techniques before these engineered barriers are constructed. Surface barriers like the PHB are essential for preventing water infiltration and curbing the spread of contaminants to groundwater. Effective monitoring of soil moisture levels above and below these barriers is crucial given that performance metrics could span up to 1,000 years. From July 2023 to June 2024, the water flux (as measured by tipping buckets) through the 2-m-thick silt loam layer of the PHB – a fine silty material that stores water under high capillary tension – remained well below the 0.5-mm-per-year performance threshold, demonstrating its effectiveness in preventing water penetration. In 2024, degraded tipping bucket gauges were replaced to ensure the accuracy of future data. Additionally, neutron probes revealed that the wetting front from the rainy season only penetrated to a maximum depth of 1.2 m into the silt loam. This further demonstrated the barrier's efficiency, as the wetting front did not fully penetrate the 2-m-thick capillary barrier. The western gravel slope of the PHB, composed of Hanford Site pit gravel of varying sizes, demonstrated low flux rates. In contrast, the eastern riprap slope exhibited higher flux rates. Zhang (2017) found that the riprap side slope of the PHB had the highest drainage rates in January and the lowest in late summer or early fall, indicating significant summer evaporation. Drainage rates increased significantly under enhanced precipitation conditions, far exceeding the design criterion, which could lead to water infiltration into the waste zone. The study introduced the “edge effect,” where elevated drainage rates from the riprap may migrate laterally beneath the barrier, compromising its ability to isolate waste, and recommended expanding the barrier and conducting further research to mitigate this issue. This report provides a review on surface barrier edge effects and their potential impact to subsurface contaminant migration.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗

DOE OSTI2020

The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño

Abstract. The 2015–2016 El Niño event ranks as one of the most severe on record in terms of the magnitude and extent of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Corresponding global impacts on the climate were expected to rival, or even surpass, those of the 1997–1998 severe El Niño event, which had SST anomalies that were similar in size. However, the 2015–2016 event failed to meet expectations for hydrologic change in many areas, including those expected to receive well above normal precipitation. To better understand how climate anomalies during an El Niño event impact soil moisture, we investigate changes in soil moisture in the humid tropics (between ±25∘) during the three most recent super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, using data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). First, we use in situ soil moisture observations obtained from 16 sites across five continents to validate and bias-correct estimates from GLDAS (r2=0.54). Next, we apply a k-means cluster analysis to the soil moisture estimates during the El Niño mature phase, resulting in four groups of clustered data. The strongest and most consistent decreases in soil moisture occur in the Amazon basin and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. In addition, we compare changes in soil moisture to both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which showed a lack of agreement in the direction of change between these variables and soil moisture most prominently in the southern Amazon basin, the Sahel and mainland southeastern Asia. Our results can be used to improve estimates of spatiotemporal differences in El Niño impacts on soil moisture in tropical hydrology and ecosystem models at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning model inputs, outputs, and scripts associated with “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions” (Malhotra et al., in prep). This effort was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the contiguous United States (CONUS). New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Associated sediment and water geochemistry and in situ sensor data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1729719, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1603775. This data package is associated with two GitHub repositories found at https://github.com/parallelworks/dynamic-learning-rivers and https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of two main folders (1) dynamic-learning-rivers and (2) ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript which contain snapshots of the associated GitHub repositories. The input data, output data, and machine learning models used to guide sampling locations are within dynamic-learning-rivers. The folder is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning (ML) models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “examples” contains files for direct experimentation with the machine learning model, including scripts for setting up “hindcast” run; (4) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; and (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please see the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation. The scripts and data used to create figures in the manuscript are within ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. The folder is organized into four folders which contain the scripts, data, and pdf for each figure. Within the “fig-model-score-evolution” folder, there is a folder called “intermediate_branch_data” which contains some intermediate files pulled from dynamic-learning-rivers and reorganized to easily integrate into the workflows. NOTE: THIS FOLDER INCLUDES THE FILES AT THE POINT OF PAPER SUBMISSION. IT WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THE PAPER IS ACCEPTED WITH ANY REVISIONS AND WILL INCLUDE A DD/FLMD AT THAT POINT. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗