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DOE OSTI2025

Atomistic Simulations of Thermal and Chemical Expansions of PrNi x Co 1‐x O 3‐δ Accelerated by Machine Learning Potentials

The electrodes and solid-state electrolytes in protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) experience significant lattice expansions when exposed to high steam concentrations at elevated temperatures. In this paper, phonon calculations based on a new machine learning potential (MLP) are employed to elucidate the volume expansions of the proton-conducting PrNi x Co 1-x O 3-δ (PNC) lattices, manifested under a combined influence of oxygen vacancies (V$^{\cdot\cdot}_O$ ) and proton uptake (OH$^{\cdot}_O$ ) in the bulk at varying Ni/Co occupancies. It is revealed that the Ni/Co occupancy contributes to thermal and chemical expansions differently, where thermal expansions are related to Co occupancy. In contrast, chemical expansions are more closely associated with the Ni occupancy. Both V$^{\cdot\cdot}_O$ and OH$^{\cdot}_O$ lead to higher thermal expansions when compared to the pristine PNC. The temperature increase will negatively impact the hydration-induced chemical expansions. For combined thermal and chemical expansions, it is predicted that the strategies that boost the PCEC's electrochemical performance may harm the electrode–electrolyte interfacial stability, when the Ni occupancy is high, due to severe chemical expansions. Mitigating chemical expansions of the Ni-abundant PNC will benefit the interfacial stability. Finally, the presented computational methods for phonon calculations, based on emerging machine learning interatomic potential techniques are anticipated to have a lasting impact on future PCEC development.

computational prediction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Machine Learning to Predict MoS 2 Solid Lubricant Performance

Physical vapor deposited (PVD) molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings are an exemplar material system for machine learning methods due to small changes in process variables often causing large variations in microstructure and mechanical/tribological properties. Here, in this work, a gradient boosted regression tree machine learning method is applied to an existing experimental data set containing process, microstructure, and property information to create deeper insights into the process-structure–property relationships for molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) solid lubricant coatings. The optimized and cross-validated models show good predictive capabilities for density, reduced modulus, hardness, wear rate, and initial coefficients of friction. The contribution of individual deposition variables (i.e., argon pressure, deposition power, target conditioning) on coating properties is highlighted through feature importance. The process-property relationships established herein show linear and non-linear relationships and highlight the influence of uncontrolled deposition variables (i.e., target conditioning) on the tribological performance.

MoS2↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time tracking and analysis of gas bubble dynamics in laser powder bed fusion using in-situ X-ray characterization and machine learning

Porosity defects remain a significant challenge in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, adversely affecting the mechanical properties and reliability of additively manufactured components. Here, this study investigates the real-time formation and trajectory of gas bubbles during LPBF of Al6061 alloy using advanced in-situ X-ray characterization and machine learning. The unsupervised Gaussian mixture model and particle tracking algorithm developed are able to precisely track and quantify the properties of gas bubbles and keyhole pores. Our analysis identified five distinct types of gas bubble formation and movement patterns, emphasizing the diverse origins and behaviors of these defects. It enables precise quantification of trajectories, velocities, and morphological changes of gas bubbles, offering a granular view of the subsurface dynamics within the melt pool. Additionally, we explored keyhole-induced pore dynamics, revealing the critical role of keyhole oscillation and collapse for the formation of both large and small gas pores. It defines four different regions of gas bubble movement within the melt pool, providing a clearer understanding of how local fluid dynamics affect pore behavior. The results underscore the importance of integrating in-situ experimental observation and automated machine learning to develop a more robust predictive model for defect formation in LPBF.

In-situ X-ray imaging↗

DOE OSTI2026

Establishing an acoustic-property relationship in laser powder bed fusion with machine learning

Quality control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion (PBF-LB) additively manufactured parts is an important hurdle inhibiting the technology’s use structural applications. Acoustic monitoring of the laser powder bed fusion process can detect defects in-situ that are known to degrade mechanical properties. However, processing-structure-property (PSP) relationships are required to extrapolate from detected defects to part performance. Here, this study explores how acoustics may be a suitable signature linking processing conditions to properties, thus effectively substituting for structure in the PSP relationship. Establishing such a relationship would enable a part’s mechanical performance to be directly predicted from its acoustic signature, reducing the need for destructive testing or microstructural analysis to ensure a part will meet performance requirements. One hundred CoCrFeMnNi high entropy alloy tensile bars were printed across 13 process conditions in a series of 6 prints. The acoustic signatures of these tensile bars were used to train machine learning models to predict each part’s mechanical properties. By using both process information and acoustic information to predict mechanical properties, yield strength was predicted 18% more accurately and ductility to failure was predicted 10% more accurately than is achieved when using duplicate parts to predict part performance. Finally, individual acoustic frequencies were investigated to determine why acoustic signatures improve mechanical property predictions and the potential physical origins of these signatures. This work demonstrates how blending acoustics, process information, and machine learning can provide in-situ diagnostics of mechanical properties and improve the reliability of the PBF-LB process.

Acoustic emission↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning informed rational design of high entropy double perovskite oxide universal air/steam electrodes for solid oxide electrochemical cells

Due to their high efficiency and versatility, solid oxide electrochemical cells (SOCs) are poised to play a significant role in future energy conversion and storage applications. In recent years, SOCs have bifurcated into two distinct categories: traditional oxygen-ion conducting SOCs that typically operate from ∼650—850 °C and the more recent proton-conducting ceramic (PCC) SOCs that typically operate from ∼400—650 °C. Current performance and lifetime of both oxygen-ion conducting SOCs and PCCs is primarily limited by the air/steam electrode, which facilitates the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) during fuel cell operation and must also facilitate the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) during electrolysis operation. Here, we present a newly designed high-entropy double perovskite oxide suitable as a universal ORR/OER electrode for both oxygen-ion conducting SOCs and PCCs. Machine learning methods are applied to identify chemical descriptors for highly catalytic high-entropy double perovskite oxides (AA’B 2 O 6 ) across a large compositional space. Based on the machine-learning guidance, we ultimately converge on Ba 0.9 Cs 0.1 (Ca 0.2 Gd 0.2 La 0.2 Pr 0.2 Sr 0.2 )Co 1.5 Fe 0.5 O 6 (CsBaHEO) as a universal air/steam electrode. Structure stabilization is accomplished by an equimolar five-cation high-entropy composition on the A’-site, while cesium substitution on the A-site enhances the electrical conductivity and leads to a higher oxygen vacancy concentration. This material exhibits versatility and high performance in reversible oxygen-ion SOCs, reversible PCCs, and also large-scale tubular PCCs. For example, the CsBaHEO-based PCC reaches 1018 mW∙cm −2 at 600°C, while a large-scale tubular PCC using CsBaHEO for electrolysis achieves a hydrogen production rate of 21.314 ML∙min −1 at 600 °C.

Cell↗

DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling Hydrogen Induced Geochemical Reaction Mechanisms through Coupled Geochemical Modeling and Machine Learning

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) provides a promising large-scale, long-term energy storage solution. A reasonable recovery of stored hydrogen is critical for a successful storage scheme. However, in subsurface reservoirs hydrogen is subject to active geochemical reactions that might result in hydrogen loss. In this study, we implemented a geochemical modeling approach coupled with an unsupervised machine learning technique called non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to unravel the complex brine-rock-H 2 geochemical processes responsible for hydrogen losses, with particular focus on sulfate reduction reactions. NMF is applied to modeled mineral evolution and fluid component profiles to retrieve profiles that can be interpreted to more easily assess competing processes. NMF decouples simulated competing equilibrium reactions. This facilitates separation of overlapping reaction profiles from redox processes, dissolution fronts, and secondary precipitation while considering the effects of simulation parameters such as salinity, temperature, and total H 2 pressure. NMF successfully discriminates these competing effects in nonlinear ways, allowing robust interpretation. In addition, NMF reveals subtle coupled mineral associations and reaction fronts that are invisible to conventional model analysis. This integrated approach strengthens the conceptual understanding of complex nonlinear hydrogen-brine-rock interactions and advances geochemical research on UHS systems to resolve complexities in modeled geochemical systems without the need for direct experiments or prior knowledge. Furthermore, this study highlights the efficacy of combining geochemical modeling with machine learning techniques to enhance the interpretability of the intricate geochemical simulation output through deciphering the overlapping reaction path that cannot be achieved only using conventional analysis of geochemical models alone.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models

This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid metal additive/subtractive machine tools and applications

Additive manufacturing creates parts by depositing a preform, typically layer by layer. Subtractive manufacturing involves removing material from a preform to create parts. Hybrid machine tools combine both additive and subtractive processes in the same workspace. They can be used to create parts that meet functional tolerance and surface finish requirements, or to create features that are difficult to produce using additive or subtractive processes alone. Here, this paper describes hybrid metal additive/subtractive machine tools. It covers design considerations, sensors and controls, process management, programming and software, and the impact on the design space. It also identifies future research challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Two-level overlapping additive Schwarz preconditioner for training scientific machine learning applications

In this work we introduce a novel two-level overlapping additive Schwarz preconditioner for accelerating the training of scientific machine learning applications. The design of the proposed preconditioner is motivated by the nonlinear two-level overlapping additive Schwarz preconditioner. The neural network parameters are decomposed into groups (subdomains) with overlapping regions. In addition, the network’s feed-forward structure is indirectly imposed through a novel subdomain-wise synchronization strategy and a coarse-level training step. Through a series of numerical experiments, which consider physicsinformed neural networks and operator learning approaches, we demonstrate that the proposed two-level preconditioner significantly speeds up the convergence of the standard (LBFGS) optimizer while also yielding more accurate machine learning models. Moreover, the devised preconditioner is designed to take advantage of model-parallel computations, which can further reduce the training time.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Delamination-informed lifecycle decisions: A dielectric and machine learning framework for composite sorting and recycling

Composite materials are widely used in aerospace, marine, and automotive sectors due to their high strength-to-weight ratio and durability. However, their long-term reliability can be compromised by damage accumulation. Specifically, delamination initiation serves as a precursor to structural failure, which is often difficult to detect during damage inspection. Identifying and sorting delamination initiation in samples not only increases operational safety while providing critical information for end-of-life decisions, which influences both the service life extension value and the efficiency of fiber extraction during recycling. This research addresses two challenges: (1) developing a nondestructive, ex-situ framework to sort composite materials based on damage severity, particularly delamination, and (2) understanding how damage in composites influences resin removal during pyrolysis. Both experimental work and finite element analysis were performed to predict critical stress levels that are associated with delamination onset. Based on these results, three loading levels 50 %, 75 %, and 90 % of maximum stress, were selected for controlled experiments, generating composite samples with varying extents of damage for machine learning model training. Microscopic imaging of these samples confirmed the damage progression from matrix cracking to delamination, validating the computational predictions. We explored supervised machine learning using dielectric measurements to classify damage states. Preliminary results show an artificial neural network can identify early delamination which is a potential precursor to failure, with 94.44 % accuracy on our dataset. A parallel investigation into the effect of damage severity on pyrolysis recycling showed that heavily delaminated samples required significantly less energy for comparable matrix removal than undamaged samples.

dielectric variables↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning in materials research: Developments over the last decade and challenges for the future

The number of studies that apply machine learning (ML) to materials science has been growing at a rate of approximately 1.67 times per year over the past decade. In this review, I examine this growth in various contexts. First, I present an analysis of the most commonly used tools (software, databases, materials science methods, and ML methods) used within papers that apply ML to materials science. The analysis demonstrates that despite the growth of deep learning techniques, the use of classical machine learning is still dominant as a whole. It also demonstrates how new research can effectively build upon past research, particular in the domain of ML models trained on density functional theory calculation data. Next, I present the progression of best scores as a function of time on the matbench materials science benchmark for formation enthalpy prediction. In particular, a dramatic improvement of 7 times reduction in error is obtained when progressing from feature-based methods that use conventional ML (random forest, support vector regression, etc.) to the use of graph neural network techniques. Finally, I provide views on future challenges and opportunities, focusing on data size and complexity, extrapolation, interpretation, access, and relevance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations

High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics-informed machine learning exploration of Na storage mechanisms in disordered carbon

Sodium-ion batteries are a cost-effective, sustainable alternative to lithium-ion systems for large-scale energy storage. However, optimizing sodium storage in carbon-based anodes with microstructural complexity and atomic disorder remains a major challenge. The intrinsic inhomogeneity of these materials produces diverse local environments, making it difficult for conventional methods to predict and control ion dynamics. Hard carbon (HC) anodes, composed of ranges of ordered-to-disordered graphitic and amorphous nanodomains, offer tunable ion storage and rate capacity, yet rationale design remains a challenge due to poorly understood correlation between local atomic feature and ion transport mechanism. Here, to address this challenge, we introduce a data-driven framework that integrates validated machine-learned interatomic potentials, large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, and machine learning to elucidate sodium transport mechanisms as a function of carbon and sodium loading densities. By computing per-ion structural descriptors and applying unsupervised learning, we identify distinct diffusion modes governed by microscopic features. Supervised analysis and correlation mapping then establish quantitative links between these transport regimes and processing variables such as bulk carbon density and sodium content. This physics-informed approach establishes quantitative structure–transport relationships and offers actionable design principles for engineering high-performance HC anodes.

Data-driven framework↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accurate and efficient predictions of keyhole dynamics in laser materials processing using machine learning-aided simulations

The keyhole phenomenon has been widely observed in laser materials processing, including laser welding, remelting, cladding, drilling, and additive manufacturing. Keyhole-induced defects, primarily pores, dramatically affect the performance of final products, impeding the broad use of these laser-based technologies. The formation of these pores is typically associated with the dynamic behavior of the keyhole. So far, the accurate characterization and prediction of keyhole features, particularly keyhole depth, as a function of time, has been a challenging task. In situ characterization of keyhole dynamic behavior using the synchrotron X-ray technique is informative but complicated and expensive. Current simulations are generally hindered by their poor accuracy and generalization abilities in predicting keyhole depths due to the lack of accurate laser absorptance data. In this study, we develop a machine learning-aided simulation method that accurately predicts keyhole dynamics, especially in keyhole depth fluctuations, over a wide range of processing parameters. In two case studies involving titanium and aluminum alloys, we achieve keyhole depth prediction with a mean absolute percentage error of 10 %, surpassing those simulated using the ray-tracing method with an error margin of 30 %, while also reducing computational time. This exceptional fidelity and efficiency empower our model to serve as a cost-effective alternative to synchrotron experiments. Our machine learning-aided simulation method is affordable and readily deployable for a large variety of materials, opening new doors to eliminate or reduce defects for a wide range of laser materials processing techniques.

Computational fluid dynamics↗