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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Time Correlations from Steady-State Expectation Values

Recovering properties of correlation functions is typically challenging. On the one hand, experimentally, it requires measurements with a temporal resolution finer than the system’s dynamics. On the other hand, analytical or numerical analysis requires solving the system evolution. Here, we use recent results of quantum metrology with continuous measurements to derive general lower bounds on the relaxation and second-order correlation times that are both easy to calculate and measure. These bounds are based solely on steady-state expectation values and their derivatives with respect to a system parameter, and can be readily extended to the autocorrelation of arbitrary observables. We validate our method on two examples of critical quantum systems: a critical driven-dissipative resonator, where the bound matches analytical results for the dynamics, and the infinite-range Ising model, where only the steady state is solvable, and thus the bound provides information beyond the reach of existing analytical approaches. Our results can be applied to the experimental characterization of ultrafast systems and to the theoretical analysis of many-body models whose dynamics are hard to compute.

Górecki, Wojciech [INFN, Pavia] (ORCID:00000001991↗
DOE OSTI2023

Four Years of Type Ia Supernovae Observed by TESS: Early-time Light-curve Shapes and Constraints on Companion Interaction Models

Abstract We present 307 type Ia supernova (SN) light curves from the first 4 yr of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission. We use this sample to characterize the shapes of the early-time light curves, measure the rise times from first light to peak, and search for companion star interactions. Using simulations, we show that light curves must have noise <10% of the peak flux to avoid biases in the early-time light-curve shape, restricting our quantitative analysis to 74 light curves. We find that the mean power-law index t β 1 of the early-time light curves isβ 1 = 1.93 ± 0.57, and the mean rise time to peak is 15.7 ± 3.5 days. The underlying population distribution forβ 1 may instead consist of a Gaussian component with mean 2.29, width 0.34, and a long tail extending to values less than 1.0. We find that the data can rarely distinguish between models with and without companion interaction models. Nevertheless, we find three high-quality light curves that tentatively prefer the addition of a companion interaction model, but the statistical evidence for the companion interactions is not robust. We also find two SNe that disfavor the addition of a companion interaction model to a curved power-law model. Taking the 74 SNe together, we calculate 3σupper limits on the presence of companion signatures to control for orientation effects that can hide companions in individual light curves. Our results rule out common progenitor systems with companions having Roche lobe radii >31R ⊙ (separations >5.7 × 10 12 cm, 99.9% confidence level) and disfavor companions having Roche lobe radii >10R ⊙ (separations >1.9 × 10 12 cm, 95% confidence level). Lastly, we discuss the implications of our results for the intrinsic fraction of single degenerate progenitor systems.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating Laser Beam Welding as an In-Space Joining Technique via Thermal Vacuum and Microgravity and Vacuum Experiments

In-space joining technologies are crucial for stimulating an in-space economy and for enabling sustained space exploration by in-space manufacturing and repair of metallic structures. Compared to brazing or soldering, in-space welding (ISW) can provide highly hermetic, strong, and complex joints, potentially without introducing additional material. However, the influence of extreme temperatures, reduced pressure, and reduced gravity on ISW is not yet fully elucidated. Several efforts at NASA are investigating laser beam welding (LBW) as a joining and repair method in both thermal vacuum (TVAC) and combined vacuum & reduced gravity environments. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) shepherded several ISW projects in its past, including the 1973 electron beam welding on Skylab, the 1989 low-power LBW on parabolic flights, and the unflown 1990s-era In-Space Welding Experiment. Recent parabolic flights and 3 degree-of-freedom ground testing build upon this heritage. A collaboration with the Ohio State University using NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) hardware retrofitted for LBW achieved the first high-powered laser welds under vacuum and low gravity and developed a workforce capable developing such experimental hardware. A ground testing campaign at the MSFC Flat Floor simulated fit-up and welding representative of ISW in 3 degrees of freedom to emulate microgravity effects on inertial systems. One ongoing effort is a NASA Early Career Initiative project – Lunar Assembly and Servicing by Autonomous Robotics (LASAR). Ruggedized LBW components were developed by an external partner for use in TVAC. A TVAC-rated robotic arm was procured by MSFC and used in the first known robotic laser weld where all components save the laser generator were under vacuum. NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is advancing supervised autonomy of ISW. NASA LaRC continues to adapt their unique snowflake joint geometry, suitable for connecting segments in trusses and other structures, to LBW. Upcoming TVAC campaigns will focus on testing extreme temperatures, proving out autonomous operations, and demonstrating weld repair. Weld inspection will occur via a non-contact nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique – electromagnetic acoustic transduction (EMAT). Another ongoing effort based at MSFC is the DISCMAN -- DIsk-Shaped Configurable and Modular vAcuum uNit – which seeks to development a compact, modular payload that can provide a vacuum environment while in a reduced gravity condition. This payload could support multiple in-space manufacturing developmental efforts, with the first demonstration technology being LBW. Currently, the design is targeting operations in the pressurized volume of a space station, but the payload could readily be adapted to other flight platforms such as parabolic or even suborbital vehicles. LASAR elucidates the effects of temperature and vacuum on LBW while DISCMAN probes those of vacuum and gravity. Through these complementary efforts, NASA is addressing the primary challenges of ISW across the space environment while simultaneously developing and maturing technologies including robotic systems and inspection methodologies for future practical implementation on the Moon and beyond. This approach is timely, as upcoming missions requiring sustained human presence in space will depend on reliable ISW capabilities to create robust metallic joints currently unproven in the space environment and to perform repairs in situ .

hypogravity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

First-Principles Investigation of Phase Transitions in RuNb, RuTa, and Ru-Nb-Ta Ultrahigh Temperature Shape Memory Alloys

Ultrahigh temperature shape memory alloys (UHT-SMAs) have transition temperatures above 600 C, and they have found applications for sensing and actuating devices in aerospace industry. Among very few such UHT-SMAs currently known are Ru-based alloys such as RuNb and RuTa, whose martensite structures and phase transitions are totally different from those of NiTi-based SMAs and were poorly understood. In this work, we carried out a systematical study of RuNb using first-principles total energy calculations and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The transition paths and mechanisms in cubic → tetragonal →monoclinic transitions are revealed. and the transition sequence and martensitic transition temperatures are determined (MTTs) by evaluating the Gibbs free energies using thermodynamic integration. The calculated MTTs are in very good agreement with the experimental data. We found that the monoclinic phase at the second transition has the 𝑃21/m symmetry instead of experimentally identified 𝑃2/m. Our calculations demonstrate that RuTa has very similar phase transitions to those of RuTa. Furthermore, we studied the Ru0.5Nb0.25Ta0.25 ternary. Our results can explain the measured significant drop of MTT (~ 200 C) in the second transition for Ru0.5Nb0.25Ta0.25 compared with those of RuNb and RuTa, while in the first transition its MTT is between MTTs of RuNb and RuTa. The insights gained by this study and the verified ab initio methods for accurate MTT calculations can be applied to fast screen and quantitatively design novel UHT-SMAs having similar properties with desirable MTTs and much reduced cost.

Zhigang Wu↗
NASA NTRS1992

Effect of Microgravity on Several Visual Functions During STS Shuttle Missions

Many astronauts and cosmonauts have commented on apparent changes in their vision while on-orbit. Comments have included statements of supposed improved distance acuity to decreased near vision capability. The purpose of this study was to assess not only changes in visual acuity, but expand the assessment to several other visual functions for a comprehensive battery of tests. Vision was assessed using an innovative device, the Visual Function Tester - Model 1 (VFT-1), which presents the tests at optical infinity and includes critical flicker fusion, stereopsis to 10 seconds-of-arc, visual acuity in small steps to 20/7.7, cyclophoria, lateral and vertical phoria, and retinal rivalry. Vision was assessed 2 times prelaunch at L-14 days and L-7 days, 3-4 times while on-orbit, at landing, and 2 times postlanding at L+3 days and L+7 days. There were 26 STS astronauts that participated, with data on 20 astronauts used for analysis. There was a typical wide variability between subjects in baseline visual performance for each parameter at the prelaunch sessions. There was a slight but statistically significant decrease in visual acuity while on-orbit that was not clinically significant. For stereopsis (i.e. depth perception), there was a small improvement on-orbit that was not statistically significant. There were no changes during space flight for any of the other visual parameters tested. A few individuals showed apparent changes in acuity and stereopsis. The possibility exists that microgravity affects the visual system of some individuals differently, as with space adaptation syndrome. Repeat data on 2 astronauts showed good repeatability between the 2 flights. These results pertain to only short term space flight on the STS shuttle, and longer flights are necessary to determine if there is any relationship between mission duration and these visual functions.

Melvin R O'Neal↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle production by time-varying dark energy and the end of cosmic expansion

We consider various possible consequences of time-varying dark energy due to a quintessence scalar field whose energy density is partially converted to particles as the field evolves down its potential. This particle production acts as a source of thermal friction on the field that can make it difficult to distinguish whether dark energy is due to a radiating field rolling down a steep potential, a purely self-interacting field moving down a flatter potential, or a cosmological constant. By reducing the acceleration of the scalar field, thermal friction increases the amount of accelerated expansion and can cause a sizable bump in the quintessence equation of state. We take special interest in the case where a steep potential rapidly changes from positive to negative as the field evolves, resulting in the end of cosmic expansion and the beginning of contraction. Even in this case, we find that thermal friction lengthens the period of accelerated expansion and consequently delays the end of cosmic expansion, making it challenging to detect the impending transition to contraction using conventional cosmological tests. However, particle production can also provide alternative avenues for detection by generating a background of thermal dark radiation, partly comprised of neutrinos or other particles, whose energy density exceeds the remnant photon energy density.

cosmological neutrinos↗
NASA NTRS1962

ELECTRIC PROPULSION- A NEW TECHNOLOGY

Within the past 3 years, electric thrust devices have passed from the first exploratory feasibility experiments to the flight-engineered hardware phase. This rapid surge of development has been punctuated by equally rapid improvements in the performance figures of electrical thrust devices. The most spectacular advances were made in ion engine technology. Total energy expenditure per ion pair has gone from 35,000 ev in 1958 to about 600 ev at the present time leading to power utilization efficiencies of up to 80 per cent, depending upon the specific impulse. The percentage of the particles intercepting the accelerating and focusing electrodes has been reduced from more than 50 per cent in 1958 to less than 0.01 per cent at the present time. Great improvements in ion current per unit area have also been realized, leading to greater thrust "pressures."

ELECTRIC PROPULSION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Realization of two-dimensional discrete time crystals with anisotropic Heisenberg coupling

A discrete time crystal (DTC) is an out-of-equilibrium phase of matter that spontaneously breaks discrete time-translation symmetry. Previous studies have been limited to a set of models with Ising-like couplings - and mostly only in one dimension - thus precluding our understanding of the existence (or not) of DTCs in models with more realistic interactions. In this work, by combining the latest generation of IBM quantum processors with state-of-the-art tensor network methods, we demonstrate the existence of a DTC in a two-dimensional system governed by anisotropic Heisenberg interactions. We uncover a rich phase diagram encompassing spin-glass, ergodic, and time-crystalline phases, and identify the interplay of initialization, interaction anisotropy, and driving protocols in stabilizing the DTC phase. By extending the study of Floquet matter beyond simplified models, we lay the groundwork for exploring how driven systems bridge the gap between quantum coherence and emergent non-equilibrium thermodynamics.

Phase transitions and critical phenomena↗
NASA NTRS2026

A Dispersion-Strengthened Low-Density Niobium Alloy and Its Elevated Temperature Mechanical Performance

In response to the elevated-temperature and weight-reduction demands of modern aerospace applications, a novel oxide-dispersion-strengthened low-density niobium alloy (LDNb-ODS) was fabricated using laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF). To overcome powder procurement barriers, L-PBF feedstock was produced by blending commercial Nb521, Ti64, and Cr powder with Y2O3 nanoparticles via resonant acoustic mixing. Following L-PBF and a 1400°C vacuum heat treatment, the alloy achieved a density of 6.73 g/cc and a fine mean grain size of 4.62 µm stabilized by uniform ~30 nm yttria dispersoids. Microstructural analysis revealed a chemically inhomogeneous build with lack-of-fusion defects and a titanium (Ti) shift from a nominal 31.5 wt% in the starting powder blend to 24.8 wt% in the printed part due to preferential Ti loss during printing. Elevated-temperature tensile testing demonstrated that LDNb-ODS maintained a superior specific yield strength of 60-85 MPa/(g/cc) up to 800°C, outperforming nickel-based alloys Ni625, Ni230, and GRX-810. Between 870°C and 950°C, its specific strength surpassed both Ni718 and Ni625. In rapid stress-rupture testing at 1093°C and 20.7 MPa, uncoated LDNb-ODS survived 21.4 hours (a tenfold increase over legacy C-103) while an R512E silicide coating extended rupture life to 84.8 hours, confirming that oxidation accelerates low-stress failure. These findings demonstrate that additive manufacturing of LDNb-ODS provides a viable, lightweight alternative to nickel-based superalloys for high-temperature (>850°C) aerospace components.

Low Density Niobium Alloy↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Compact Cryogenic Environment for In Situ Neutron Diffraction Under Mechanical Loading

Understanding the deformation mechanisms of materials at cryogenic temperatures is crucial for cryogenic engineering applications. In situ neutron diffraction is a powerful technique for probing such mechanisms under cryogenic conditions. In this study, we present the development of a compact cryogenic environment (CCE) designed to facil-itate in situ neutron diffraction experiments under mechanical loading at tempera-tures as low as 77 K. The CCE features a polystyrene foam cryogenic chamber, alumi-num blocks serving as neutron-transparent cold sinks, a liquid nitrogen dosing system for cryogen delivery, a nitrogen gas flow control system for thermal management, a process controller for temperature control, and a pair of thermally isolated grip adapt-ers for mechanical testing. The CCE achieves reliable temperature control with mini-mal neutron attenuation. Utilizing this setup, we conducted three in situ neutron dif-fraction tensile tests on a 316L stainless steel at 77 , 173 , and 298 K, respectively. The results highlight the pronounced effects of cryogenic temperatures on the material's deformation mechanisms, underscoring both the significance of cryogenic deformation studies and the effectiveness of the CCE.

Yu, Dunji [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189467851)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of large-scale, 3D Printed high temperature ceramic material

Through this collaborative effort, a new 3D printing platform for ceramics called laser-induced slip casting (LIS) was explored and developed for improving the processing and manufacture of silicon carbide (SiC), a high temperature ceramic material. This method prints layers of ceramic slips/slurries with subsequent selective-laser heating to dry each layer to build a 3D structure. The completed and dried part is then sintered. This manufacturing process is inherently lower cost than alternative ceramic printing methods such as binder jet technology or stereolithography when it comes to the feedstock material but is more expensive than robocasting or direct ink writing. However, it has the potential to make more controlled parts with less defects compared to robocasting. The largest cost is the heating source for the printer. With this technique, there is potential to make large ceramic parts in a near-net shape. Further, there is no known commercial manufacturing of 3D printed ceramics that creates a large range of different high-density ceramics at large scale. The goals and outcomes for the development of the new printing technology were: 1) assessing the technology with alumina by characterizing coupons, 2) printing and sintering of silicon carbide (SiC), and 3) characterization and properties testing of materials printed and a scale-up of SiC part(s). Through this collaborative project, it was sought to provide the best solution to achieving highly dense and near-net shaped ceramic parts at large scale and reduced cost. The goal was to produce high density sintered materials for applications in defense, energy generating systems, armor, and wear parts using 3D printing methods. Variables including powder particle sizes, dispersant molecular weights (MWs), binders, printing parameters, and post processing were explored as well as the characterization of the physical properties (add specifics here).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electron temperature relations and the direct N, O, Ne, S, and Ar abundances of 49 959 star-forming galaxies in DESI data release 2

We present the largest direct-method abundance catalogue of galaxies to date, containing measurements of 49 959 star-forming galaxies at z<0.96 from DESI (Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument) data release 2. By directly measuring electron temperatures across multiple ionization zones, we provide constraints on a number of electron temperature relations. Using the temperature measurements, we derive reliable abundances for N, O, Ne, S, and Ar, and measure the evolution of abundances and abundance ratios of as a function of metallicity and other galaxy properties. Our measurements include direct oxygen abundances for 49 507 galaxies, leading to the discovery of the two most metal-poor galaxies in the nearby Universe, with oxygen abundances of 12+log⁡(O/H)=6.77−0.03+0.03 dex (1.2 per cent Z⊙⁠) and 12+log⁡(O/H)=6.81−0.04+0.04 dex (1.3 per cent Z⊙⁠). We identify a rare outlier population of 24 galaxies with high-N/O ratios at low metallicity, reminiscent of galaxy abundances observed in the early Universe. We find the Ne/O ratio is constant at low metallicity but increases gradually at 12+log(O/H)>8.105±0.004 dex. We show that the S/O and Ar/O abundance ratios are strongly correlated, consistent with the expected additional Type Ia enrichment channel for S and Ar. In this work, we present an initial survey of the key properties of the sample, with this data set serving as a foundation for extensive future work on galaxy abundances at low redshift.

Scholte, D. [Edinburgh U., Inst. Astron.] (ORCID:0↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat exposure and maternal stress: evidence from the GRAPHS pregnancy cohort in Ghana

Heat exposure has been linked to psychosocial stress, an established antecedent of perinatal depression; however, evidence on heat-related stress during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. We analyzed psychosocial stress scores and covariate data from the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study, linking daily maximum and minimum shaded wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) metrics to participants’ stress scores derived from the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised Life Events Questionnaire. We evaluated associations using ordinal logistic regression of pregnancy-average and trimester-average exposures and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess time-varying associations across gestation. Higher average maximum WBGT exposure across pregnancy was associated with increased odds of higher psychosocial stress; each 1 °C increase in maximum WBGT was associated with 64% higher odds of belonging to a higher stress category (OR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17–2.31; p = 0.0040). In trimester-average models, higher first-trimester maximum WBGT was also associated with higher stress (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.15–1.81; p = 0.0014). DLNMs suggested that relatively cooler daily maximum WBGT values (25th percentile) were associated with decreased odds of stress in early pregnancy, whereas extreme daily maximum WBGT values (99th percentile) showed a pattern consistent with increased odds of stress in mid-to-late gestation. These findings highlight gestational windows in which heat exposure may influence stress, emphasizing the need for further research into underlying mechanisms and effective interventions to protect maternal mental health in heat-vulnerable settings.

White, Lewis [Columbia University] (ORCID:00090005↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prime Time for Model-Predictive Control? Assessing the Technical and Market Readiness of Advanced Controls in Buildings

Despite three decades of extensive research and field testing that have consistently validated the benefits of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in building applications, the technology has seen limited market adoption. This paper evaluates the readiness of MPC for widespread deployment, showcases recent demonstrations and field tests across diverse building types, including residential, small commercial, large commercial, and campus settings. Our results demonstrate that MPC can optimize system operations to achieve load shifting, minimize curtailment of on-site generation, and reduce energy costs by up to 80 %, while maintaining or improving occupant comfort. We also show that MPC can effectively control large assets, such as MW-sized thermal storage systems, and respond to dynamic pricing signals. However, achieving scale remains difficult due to labor-intensive workflows, reliance on a “PhD-in-the-loop” for MPC design and maintenance, susceptibility to fragile data infrastructure, and persistent workforce education and acceptance barriers. To bridge this gap, we outline a transition from bespoke, labor intensive prototypes toward streamlined, segment-targeted deployment strategies that leverage model templates, semantic tools, and generative AI. By automating control configuration and reducing engineering effort, these recommendations provide a pathway for transforming successful research demonstrations into scalable, market ready solutions for MPC-based controls.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear Reactor Heat Extraction for Synthetic Fuel Plants

This report looks at the viability and best approach when producing synthetic fuels using heat and power supplied by advanced nuclear energy systems. The report looks at a low temperature integration pathway with four types of advanced reactors: a pressurized water reactor (PWR), an advanced light water reactor (A-LWR), a sodium fast reactor (SFR), and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of the coupling system between the nuclear plant and the synthetic fuel systems is performed with the goal of identifying the reliability of such a thermal delivery system. Furthermore, a high temperature pathway is investigated for synfuel coupling to determine if this is more efficient and more cost effective as a coupling approach.

10 - SYNTHETIC FUELS↗