Accelerated battery life predictions through synergistic combination of physics-based models and machine learning
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25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
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Results for “Physics modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The computer code uses a parallel simulated annealing framework with embedded machine learning components to solve multi-constrained optimization problems. The software automatically balances the execution of low and high fidelity physics models within the optimization procedure. The low fidelity model is used to rapidly explore the design space while the high fidelity physics model is executed sparingly to account for complex design constraints that are not resolved by the quickly executing low fidelity model.
Gurecky, William↗
Designing observables for measurements with deep learning
Many analyses in particle and nuclear physics use simulations to infer fundamental, effective, or phenomenological parameters of the underlying physics models. When the inference is performed with unfolded cross sections, the observables are designed using physics intuition and heuristics. We propose to design targeted observables with machine learning. Unfolded, differential cross sections in a neural network output contain the most information about parameters of interest and can be well-measured by construction. The networks are trained using a custom loss function that rewards outputs that are sensitive to the parameter(s) of interest while simultaneously penalizing outputs that are different between particle-level and detector-level (to minimize detector distortions). We demonstrate this idea in simulation using two physics models for inclusive measurements in deep inelastic scattering. We find that the new approach is more sensitive than classical observables at distinguishing the two models and also has a reduced unfolding uncertainty due to the reduced detector distortions.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Inverse design of equilibrium cluster fluids applied to a physically informed model
Inverse design strategies have proven highly useful for the discovery of interaction potentials that prompt self-assembly of a variety of interesting structures. However, often the optimized particle interactions do not have a direct relationship to experimental systems. In this work, we show that Relative Entropy minimization is able to discover physically meaningful parameter sets for a model interaction built from depletion attraction and electrostatic repulsion that yield self-assembly of size-specific clusters. Here, we then explore the sensitivity of the optimized interaction potentials with respect to deviations in the underlying physical quantities, showing that clustering behavior is largely preserved even as the optimized parameters are perturbed.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design
The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) for System-Level Design Analysis
Cybersecurity is a persistent concern to the safety and security of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), but has lacked data-driven, evidence-based research. Rigorous cybersecurity analysis is critical for the licensing of advanced reactors using a performance-based approach. One tool that enables cybersecurity analysis is modeling and simulation. The nuclear industry makes extensive use of modeling and simulation throughout the decision process but lacks a method to incorporate cybersecurity analysis with existing models. To meet this need, the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) was developed. ARCADE is a suite of publicly available tools that can be used to develop emulations of industrial control system devices and networks and integrate those emulations with physics simulators. This integration of cyber emulations and physics models enables rigorous cyber-physical analysis of cyber-attacks on NPP systems. This report provides an overview of key considerations for using ARCADE with existing physics models and demonstrates ARCADE’s capabilities for cybersecurity analysis. Using a model of the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (SmAHTR), ARCADE was able to determine the sensitivity of the primary heat exchangers (PHX) to coordinated cyber-attacks. The analysis determined that while the PHX’s failures cause disruption to the reactor, they did not cause any safety limits to be exceeded because of the plant design, including passive safety features. Further development of ARCADE will enable rigorous, repeatable, and automated cyber-physical analysis of advanced reactor control systems. These efforts will also help reduce regulatory uncertainty by presenting similar types of cybersecurity analyses in a common format, driving standard approaches and reporting.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Physical & Cyber Security Modeling Interfacing Through Dante and ARCADE
Physical security is increasingly facing new threats from cyber attackers, for which there is little research in the way of characterizing this threat. This report discusses the efforts to combine cyber and physical security modeling tools to investigate this novel combinatorial threat space. To accomplish this, the Dante force-on-force modeling and simulation software and the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) were integrated. Dante provides a 3D environment which models the physical world, while ARCADE provides the cyber and control systems world.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Selection of Sampling and Surrogate Modeling Methods for State-Point Evaluations of an AGN-201M Reactor
Nuclear reactor digital twins (DTs) have been proposed for use as a safeguards technology to efficiently monitor new and novel reactors as they come online. A safeguards DT needs to be capable of detecting misuse and diversion as they occur, requiring physics models to be accurate and efficient. Mathematical surrogate models are capable of achieving the necessary efficiency and can largely maintain the accuracy of higher-order models given a quality training sample. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) code framework is specifically equipped to generate training samples and create surrogate models using full-order reactor physics models. Utilizing an operational AGN-201M reactor’s specifications, two surrogate types were trained on samples of variable size, and using Cartesian products, Latin hypercube sampling, and quadrature sampling, each was compared and evaluated on accuracy when compared to a full-order Monte Carlo model. Both surrogate types were able to capture reactivity changes within 0.05 $ of the Monte Carlo model while reducing the computation costs by eight orders of magnitude.
MOOSE↗
Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?
Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs), unlike other lines of evidence, indicate that anthropogenic aerosols cause a global-mean increase in cloud liquid water path (ℒ) and thus a negative adjustment to radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions. In part 1 of this series of papers, we showed that this is true even in models that reproduce the negative correlation observed in present-day internal variability in ℒ and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We studied several possible confounding mechanisms that could explain the noncausal cloud–aerosol correlations in GCMs and that possibly contaminate observational estimates of radiative adjustments. Here, we perform single-column and full-atmosphere GCM experiments to investigate the causal model-physics mechanisms underlying the model radiative adjustment estimate. We find that both aerosol–cloud interaction mechanisms thought to be operating in real clouds – precipitation suppression and entrainment evaporation enhancement – are active in GCMs and behave qualitatively in agreement with physical process understanding. However, the modeled entrainment enhancement has a negligible global-mean effect. This raises the question of whether the GCM estimate is incorrect due to parametric or base-state representation errors or whether the process understanding gleaned from a limited set of canonical cloud cases is insufficiently representative of the diversity of clouds in the real climate. Regardless, even at limited resolution, the GCM physics appears able to parameterize the small-scale microphysics–turbulence interplay responsible for the entrainment enhancement mechanism. We suggest ways to resolve tension between current and future (storm-resolving) global modeling systems and other lines of evidence in synthesis climate projections.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Fast emulation of quantum three-body scattering
Here, we develop a class of emulators for solving quantum three-body scattering problems. They are based on combining the variational method for scattering observables and the recently proposed eigenvector continuation concept. The emulators are first trained by the exact scattering solutions of the governing Hamiltonian at a small number of points in its parameter space, and then employed to make interpolations and extrapolations in that space. Through a schematic nuclear-physics model with finite-range two and three-body interactions, we demonstrate the emulators to be extremely accurate and efficient. The computing time for emulation is on the scale of milliseconds (on a laptop), with relative errors ranging from 10 –13 to 10 –4 depending on the case. The emulators also require little memory. We argue that these emulators can be generalized to even more challenging scattering problems. Furthermore, this general strategy may be applicable for building the same type of emulators in other fields, wherever variational methods can be developed for evaluating physical models.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability
Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring
The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Machine learning for geophysical characterization of brittleness: Tuscaloosa Marine Shale case study
Brittleness is one of the most important reservoir properties for unconventional reservoir exploration and production. Better knowledge about the brittleness distribution can help to optimize the hydraulic fracturing operation and lower costs. However, there are very few reliable and effective physical models to predict the spatial distribution of brittleness. We have developed a machine learning-based method to predict subsurface brittleness by using multidiscipline data sets, such as seismic attributes, rock physics, and petrophysics information, which allows us to implement the prediction without using a physical model. The method is applied on a data set from Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, and the predicted rock physics template is close to the calculated value from conventional inverted elastic parameters. Therefore, the proposed method helps determine areas of the reservoir that have optimal geomechanical properties for successful hydraulic fracturing.
Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
Hypothesis testing via AI: Generating physically interpretable models of scientific data with machine learning (Full Technical Report)
Deep learning has demonstrated an exceptional ability to solve complex tasks (an engineering success); however, it has done so at the expense of the ability to generate new knowledge (a scientific failure). We propose an alternative framework—entitled Deep Symbolic Regression (DSR)—in which artificial neural networks (NNs) rapidly generate hypotheses about physical relationships among inputs. This framework bypasses the need to interpret an NN altogether, while still leveraging the representational power of deep learning. The resulting models are tractable mathematical expressions, which are inherently and readily human interpretable and can provide insights into underlying physical phenomena. Further, we fold this methodology into the scientific process by allowing the scientist to directly integrate a priori knowledge and beliefs to accelerate learning. We demonstrate this methodology on symbolic regression—the problem of rediscovering underlying expressions describing a dataset—and achieve state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of symbolic regression problems. Further, we generalize our DSR framework to apply to the more general class of symbolic optimization problems, in which one seeks to optimize a sequence of symbols or “tokens” under a black-box reward function. Examples of other symbolic optimization problems include neural architecture search and computational antibody design. Our generalized tool, Deep Symbolic Optimization (DSO), has been demonstrated on the task of learning symbolic control policies for reinforcement learning environments, and has been adopted as an enabling capability for computational antibody design.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A roadmap toward scaling, reasoning and self-evolving foundation models for nuclear and particle physics
Foundation models have revolutionized artificial intelligence, with Large Language Models demonstrating unprecedented capabilities in multimodal understanding, reasoning and tool use. Nuclear and particle physics stands at a critical juncture where similar transformative potential awaits realization. The field generates exabytes of experimental data, exascale simulations, and decades of theoretical insights — yet these remain largely disconnected from modern Artifical Intelligence (AI) capabilities, with most physics AI applications confined to narrow, task-specific models that suffer from domain shifting when applied to real experimental data. We present a roadmap for FM4NPP (Foundation Model for Nuclear and Particle Physics), systematically scaling from current proof-of-concept models to trillion-parameter architectures capable of autonomous discovery. Our approach advances three critical frontiers: unified data infrastructure integrating detector data, scientific knowledge and computational tools across global facilities; multi-facility foundation models enabling cross-experiment knowledge transfer and accelerated discovery; and agentic AI capabilities for reasoning and autonomous tool use. The resulting self-evolving FM4NPP will transform physics research by converting time-intensive data analysis, theory derivation and computational bottlenecks into rapid AI–human collaborative discovery. This paradigm shift promises to fundamentally accelerate scientific progress in nuclear and particle physics, enabling researchers to focus on high-level insights while AI handles routine analysis and explores vast parameter spaces beyond human capacity.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Mesoscale informed parameter estimation through machine learning: A case-study in fracture modeling
Scale bridging is a critical need in computational sciences, where the modeling community has developed accurate physics models from first principles, of processes at lower length and time scales that influence the behavior at the higher scales of interest. However, it is not computationally feasible to incorporate all of the lower length scale physics directly into upscaled models. This is an area where machine learning has shown promise in building emulators of the lower length scale models, which incur a mere fraction of the computational cost of the original higher fidelity models. We demonstrate the use of machine learning using an example in materials science estimating continuum scale parameters by emulating, with uncertainties, complicated mesoscale physics. Additionally, we describe a new framework to emulate the fine scale physics, especially in the presence of microstructures, using machine learning, and showcase its usefulness by providing an example from modeling fracture propagation. Our approach can be thought of as a data-driven dimension reduction technique that yields probabilistic emulators. Our results show well-calibrated predictions for the quantities of interests in a low-strain simulation of fracture propagation at the mesoscale level. Furthermore, on average, we achieve ~10% relative errors on time-varying quantities like total damage and maximum stresses. Successfully replicating mesoscale scale physics within the continuum models is a crucial step towards predictive capability in multi-scale problems.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
IMoFi - Intelligent Model Fidelity: Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration (Final Report)
This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
IMoFi (Intelligent Model Fidelity): Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration Updated Accomplishments
This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), including some updates from the previous report SAND2022-0215, to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗