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Methods for Validation of Random Uncertainty Estimates and Their Applications to Ozone Profiles From Limb-Viewing Satellite Instruments

For satellite measurements of atmospheric composition, the random uncertainty estimates provided by retrieval algorithms might be imperfect due to various approximations used in the retrievals or the presence of unknown error sources. This paper presents an overview of the methods used for the validation of random uncertainty estimates. All methods discussed in this study are categorized, and assumptions and limitations of each method are discussed. This overview evaluates these methods in application to ozone profile measurements from limb and occultation satellite instruments and provides practical illustrations of random uncertainty validation.

Viktoria F Sofieva

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2

Experimental Study of Aeropropulsive Interactions for Electric Ducted Fans on a Wing

The Adaptable Distributed Electric Propulsion Testbed (ADEPT)Wing was tested in the NASA Langley 12-Foot Low-Speed Tunnel to investigate electric propulsion technologies for commercial transport aircraft. The purpose of the test was to study the aeropropulsive effects across angle of attack and fan speed variations for several propulsor placements and array sizes, and to investigate how distributed electric propulsion (DEP) can be leveraged for augmented lift and vehicle control. Six electric ducted fan (EDF) array placements were tested by positioning the fans along the leading and trailing edges on the top and bottom surfaces, as well as centered on the chord line in front of and behind the wing. Each fan placement configuration was tested with an array of one, three, and five EDFs to characterize an aeropropulsive extrapolation effect, and the bare wing was tested separately to provide baseline aerodynamic measurements. The results compare the longitudinal forces and moments for each configuration by analyzing the combined aeropropulsive interaction effects, and offer valuable insight into considerations for fan placement along a wing to enable the benefits of DEP integration.

Rose Weinstein

CH3OH and HCN in Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS Mapped with the ALMA Atacama Compact Array: Distinct Outgassing Behaviors and a Remarkably High CH3OH/HCN Production Rate Ratio

We report the detection of methanol (CH3OH) toward interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS using the At-acama Compact Array of the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array (ALMA) on UT 2025 August 28, September 18 and 22, and October 1, and of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) on September 12 and 15. These observations spanned pre-perihelion heliocentric distances (r H ) of 2.6 – 1.7 au. The molecules showed outgassing patterns distinct from one another, with HCN production being depleted in the sunward hemisphere of the coma, whereas CH3OH was enhanced in that direction. Statistical analysis of molecular scale lengths in 3I/ATLAS indicated that CH3OH included production from coma sources at Lp > 258 km at 99% confidence. However low signal-to-noise on long baselines, which sample emission on small spatial scales closest to the nucleus, prevented definitively ruling out CH3OH as purely a parent species. In contrast, HCN production was indistinguishable from direct nucleus sublimation. The CH3OH production rate increased sharply from August through October, including an uptick near the inner edge of the H2O sublimation zone at rH = 2 au. Compared to comets measured to date at radio wavelengths, the derived CH3OH/HCN ratios in 3I/ATLAS of 124+30−34 and 79+11−14on September 12 and 15, respectively, are among the most enriched values measured in any comet, surpassed only by anomalous solar system comet C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS)

Comae

Aerodynamic Performance and Acoustic Impacts of Varying Tip Speeds and Tripping Conditions on Small Rotors in an Anechoic Hover Chamber

Performance and acoustic measurements were taken in a hover chamber for various optimum hovering rotors (OPT2) and a commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) rotor. A total of 10 rotors are included in this report, all of which have two blades and a tip radius of 0.1905 m (7.5 in.). For the OPT2, results for three additive manufacturing methods of fabrication are presented: stereolithography(SLA) using Accura Xtreme, SLA using FormLabs 10K resin, and selective laser sintering (SLS) using mineral-filled PA12 nylon material. All but one set of rotors were designed with a trailing edge bluntness that is 3% of the chord length, and one set was designed with a bluntness that is 1% of the chord length. Spanwise boundary layer trips were applied to the SLA, FormLabs and COTS rotors. Performance comparisons between untripped and tripped configurations demonstrate the impact of boundary layer state on rotor efficiency. Acoustic results, including periodic and broadband noise components, are presented. The effects of tripping these rotors near the leading edge are also presented. For some of the rotors, acoustic spectra of tip speed sweeps are presented to show how the frequency content changes with tip speed. Amplitude and frequency scaling methods are used to collapse broadband spectra at various tip speeds towards a unified curve. These findings contribute to the understanding of small rotor aeroacoustics and provide valuable datasets for computational model validation in urban air mobility applications.

eVTOL

Impact Testing of 410 Stainless Steel for Material Impact Model Development

A project is underway to develop a consistent set of material properties, impact test data, and failure analysis for a variety of metallic aircraft materials that can be used to develop improved impact failure and deformation models. This project is jointly funded by the NASA Glenn Research Center and the Federal Aviation Administration William J. Hughes Technical Center. Particular features of this set of data are that all material property and impact test data are obtained using traceable material, the test methods and procedures are extensively documented, and all the raw data are available. Four parallel efforts are currently underway: measurement of material deformation and failure response over a wide range of strain rates and temperatures, failure analysis of material property specimens and impact test articles, development of improved numerical modeling techniques for deformation and failure, and impact testing of flat panels and substructures for model validation. This report describes impact testing performed on 410 stainless steel sheet and plate samples of different thicknesses with two different types of projectiles, one a regular cylinder and one with a more complex geometry incorporating features representative of a jet engine fan blade. Data from this testing will be used in validating material models developed under this program. The material tests and the material models developed in this program will be published in separate reports.

410 Stainless Steel

Manufacturing and Scale-Up of Natural Fiber Composite eVTOL Propeller Skin and C-Channel

This report presents the manufacturing and scale-up of natural fiber composites for aerospace applications, conducted within NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions portfolio to advance aircraft capabilities and efficiency. The effort focused on the development and demonstration of two proof-of-concept articles, an Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) propeller skin and a C-channel, produced through an iterative design and process optimization approach. Best practices and guidance on addressing key challenges with bio-based composite materials and manufacturing is provided. Ideally suited for non-load-bearing structural components, these emerging materials offer potential for weight reduction, vibration damping, noise mitigation, interference-free communication, and cost savings, without compromising the performance of safety-critical primary structures.

Natural fibers

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization

A Missed Thrust Framework for Low-Thrust Spiral Trajectories to the NRHO

A framework is developed by which end-to-end optimization of many-revolution low-thrust spiral trajectories can be completed in the presence of missed thrust events. This framework is applied to the Lunar Transit trajectory by which the initial capability of NASA’s Gateway lunar space station will be delivered to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit. This low-thrust mission consists of three subphases, each designed according to the specific objectives and dynamical regimes encountered as the mission progresses from a medium Earth insertion orbit to cislunar space. The presented framework accounts for the unique considerations demanded by each mission phase and incorporates appropriate capabilities into a novel mission analysis tool. This methodology enables large scale and reliable analyses of missed thrust events across the end-to-end Lunar Transit to verify the robustness of flight trajectories across the full range of considered launch dates.

missed thrust

Evaluation of Superalloy 718 Additively Manufactured Lattice Blocks

Lattice block structures made up of high temperature superalloys could offer advantages in density, efficiency, and tailored properties. Three candidate lattice designs were screened through additive manufacturing of superalloy 718. Laser powder bed fusion was applied with 718 powder to produce lattice blocks for three-dimensional octahedral unit cell designs of three heights. As-designed versus additively manufactured 718 lattices were compared, including structural dimensions, densities, defects, grain structures, crystallographic texture, and surface residual stresses. Manufactured lattice I diverged the most from its design, with both corner and center nodes merged into continuous columns. Manufactured lattice III came closest to its design, though the actual nodes and struts were still larger in cross section than in the design. Only modest grain coarsening and negligible chemical segregation were observed for all three designs, suggesting uniform thermo-physical and mechanical properties are possible. Significant tensile residual stresses were present at the surface of the manufactured blocks, with highest stresses in the building direction. Current findings indicate this concept could produce useful superalloy structures for high-temperature-capable static components requiring tailored density, and thermo-physical/mechanical properties.

super alloys

Spacecraft Disposal Rosetta Stone: Parametric Tool for Orbital Lifetime, Disposal, and Cost Assessment

This Technical Memorandum documents a simplified, parametric method for evaluating spacecraft orbital lifetime, disposal compliance, and disposal-related cost impacts during early mission formulation and preliminary design. The method captures the dominant drivers of orbital decay—effective ballistic coefficient, operating altitude, and solar-cycle variability—using conservative bounding assumptions. Solar maximum conditions are used to bound achievable mission lifetime, while solar minimum conditions are used to bound disposal timelines and compliance with orbital debris requirements. A single tabulated dataset provides orbital lifetime under both solar-cycle extremes together with representative disposal ΔV required to ensure compliant disposal, enabling rapid assessment of disposal feasibility, cost sensitivity, and system-level impacts prior to committing to higher-fidelity analyses.

Orbital debris mitigation

Fatigue Life of Flow-Formed Aluminum 2195 and 6061 Alloys

The successful design and fabrication of metallic cryotanks for commercial aviation applications require lightweight, durable materials capable of withstanding high pressures and cryogenic temperatures through tens of thousands of thermomechanical refueling cycles. Flow forming is an advanced manufacturing technique that offers high-rate production and scalability for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders suitable for cryotank applications. This work establishes the durability of flow-formed aluminum alloys by characterizing their fatigue life performance under conditions that mimic cryotank refueling cycles. Residual stresses in flow-formed aluminum-lithium (Al-Li) 2195-T6 cylinders were assessed using the contour method and found to be minimal. Fatigue life testing was conducted on flow-formed Al-Li 2195-T6 at room temperature and cryogenic temperatures (-321°F [-196°C]), with wrought Al-Li 2195-T6 serving as a baseline for comparison. Results showed that flow-formed materials exhibited fatigue performance comparable to or better than wrought materials, with no statistically significant differences observed between different specimen orientations relative to processing directions. Fractography revealed reduced delaminations in the flow-formed Al-Li 2195 samples as compared to wrought, indicating potential improvement to the microstructure that could result in improved service properties. Texture analysis using electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD) indicated recrystallization during heat treatment, potentially contributing to reduced delamination susceptibility. These findings demonstrating flow-formed material durability coupled with the high manufacturing efficiency of flow forming, makes flow forming an attractive process to produce aircraft cryotanks.

EBF3

Computational Materials for Qualification and Certification (CM4QC) Strategy Document: Maturation of Computational Materials Methods for Aviation-Focused Qualification and Certification of Metal Additive Manufacturing (as an Example of Process-Intensive Materials)

Although considerable scientific and technological advances have been made in recent years in additive manufacturing (AM) processes, these advances have not translated into significant market penetration of AM parts within the aviation industry. It is broadly acknowledged that using traditional qualification and certification (Q&C) approaches for AM components is one of the most significant barriers to broader adoption of AM, resulting in high costs, long product development and certification timelines, and complex design iterations during the product development cycle. A new approach is urgently needed. This document lays out a vision for a new Q&C paradigm with increased use of computational materials (CM) methods aimed at decreasing the time and cost of Q&C of process-intensive material (PIM) approaches in the aviation industry, with AM as the immediate use case. This vision was developed with substantial input from industry, regulatory agencies, government research organizations, and academia.

Edward H Glaessgen

Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration Final Report

As GE Aerospace advances toward a revolutionary step change in propulsion efficiency, the integration and demonstration of new engine architectures and technology systems are essential. The NASA Turbofan Engine Power Extraction Demonstration (PEx), conducted through the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) project, aims to develop and demonstrate megawatt-class hybrid electric capability on a modern commercial turbofan engine. The hybrid electric system is critical to meeting the needs of the U.S. aviation industry for next-generational propulsion systems with greater efficiency, durability, and range. This supports energy independence and helps ensure the security and resilience of one of America's largest export industries. The PEx project specifically targets three key objectives: mechanically integrating hybrid electric capability into a commercial turbofan engine, integrating electric machine control with turbofan control for advanced power management, and de-risking performance modeling of future hybrid electric architectures. To mature these technologies to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6, a series of electric power system component tests and a baseline engine performance test campaign were conducted. These efforts culminated in an integrated hybrid electric turbofan test campaign demonstrating power extraction, power insertion, and power transfer between spools. Tests of the electric power system were completed at GE Aerospace’s Electrical Power Integrated Systems Center in Dayton, Ohio and engine tests were completed at Peebles Test Operation in Peebles, Ohio. Hybrid electric trade studies extended the demonstrated capability to altitude using the validated cycle model from the PEx test campaigns, allowing for comments on expanded mission benefits not demonstrated in the ground campaign. The knowledge gained from PEx also supports GE Aerospace’s Compact Core Demonstrator as part of HyTEC Phase 2 and ultimately informs the implementation of hybrid electric systems in the next generation of GE Aerospace commercial engine products. This report provides a summary of the program background, test campaigns, trade studies, and insights into the technical maturation required to support future commercial products.

Hybrid Electric

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Capability Maturity Levels for Ecosystems Enabling Digital Transformation

Digital engineering (DE) and integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) are widely recognized as critical enablers of faster, more affordable, and more reliable aerospace systems. However, many organizations have struggled to realize the promised return on investment (ROI) from digital initiatives. A primary reason is the absence of a shared, decision-focused framework that distinguishes simple digitization of existing workflows from true digital transformation that fundamentally changes how engineering decisions are made. This paper introduces an ICME capability maturity framework that fills this gap. The framework defines six cumulative ICME capability maturity levels (CMLs), explicitly tied to decision authority, engineering integration, optimization, and uncertainty management across material, process, structure, and performance scales. It is designed to complement established readiness metrics such as technology readiness levels (TRLs), manufacturing readiness levels (MRLs), and integration readiness levels (IRLs), by addressing a missing dimension: the conditions required for model-informed decision authority across scales. A unifying figure and capability table illustrate the six-level ICME Capability Maturity Framework, showing how organizations progress from digitization—with limited or negative ROI—to true digital transformation, where ICME-enabled workflows deliver measurable improvements in decision quality, cycle time, risk reduction, and reuse. The framework is intended for both technical practitioners and executive leadership, providing a common language to assess current state, guide roadmaps, align software ecosystem investments, and set realistic expectations for digital transformation outcomes. A regulatory-relevant statement clarifying the relationship between ICME capability and existing certification frameworks is provided.

ICME

Hybrid Modeling Study on Grain Evolution in the Metal Welding Process and Its Potential Lunar Application

Metal is most commonly used structural material in a wide range of spacecraft, and welding is the principal method for joining metal components into functional systems. However, conducting welding experiments under extreme environments—such as microgravity or vacuum conditions in space—is prohibitively expensive and experimentally challenging. To overcome these limitations, multi-physics computational welding models provide a cost-effective and versatile alternative. In this work, the authors have developed a coupled thermal (fluid) microstructure simulation framework to model metal welding under varying gravity conditions. The framework integrates a mixed-mode heat transfer formulation (conduction, convection, and radiation) with molten pool fluid dynamics, enabling accurate prediction of temperature fields and weld-pool geometry. A grain growth model is further incorporated to capture the spatial and temporal evolution of microstructure, including grain size distribution and morphological transitions during solidification. This approach provides detailed insight into molten pool evolution and grain-level microstructure development throughout the welding process. By explicitly parameterizing environmental conditions, the model supports extrapolation to off-Earth manufacturing scenarios such as welding on the lunar surface. Tantalum—chosen in this study due to its high melting point, oxidation resistance, and mechanical stability at elevated temperatures—serves as the material system for model demonstration. Beyond Tantalum, the integrated multi-physics framework offers broad applicability for predictive welding simulations of various structural and refractory metals or alloys used in extreme terrestrial or extraterrestrial environments.

kinetic Monte Carlo (SPPARKS)

Microstructural Evolution and Mechanical Properties of LP-DED NASA HR-1 – A Hydrogen Resistant AM Superalloy for Space Propulsion Applications

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has actively pursued metal additive manufacturing (AM) technologies for spaceflight applications since the late 2000s. AM offers transformative advantages in cost, schedule, part consolidation, and design flexibility. Among the various AM techniques, laser powder directed energy deposition (LP-DED) is particularly well suited for fabricating complex geometries with fine feature resolution. In propulsion systems that utilize high-pressure gaseous hydrogen—such as liquid hydrogen rocket engines—hydrogen environment embrittlement (HEE) presents a serious threat to material performance 1,2 . Mechanical property degradation under these conditions can compromise component reliability, especially under cyclic loading. To address this challenge, NASA developed NASA HR-1 (Hydrogen Resistant-1) as a solution for liquid rocket engine components operating in hydrogen-rich environments, using the LP-DED technique 3-9 . A key component in a liquid rocket engine is the exhaust nozzle, which is typically regeneratively cooled (regen) due to the high heat flux. NASA HR-1 was specifically developed for regen nozzle applications using hydrogen as a propellant, providing resistance to HEE, a critical issue for many materials. The AM version of NASA HR-1 was also formulated to achieve high ultimate tensile strength, along with high yield strength and ductility in this environment 5,6 . Low-cycle fatigue (LCF) is another important consideration in nozzle design, as components are expected to endure multiple starts and missions. Additionally, the LP-DED version of the alloy exhibits improved thermal conductivity compared to its wrought counterpart, which benefits nozzle cooling. Overall, NASA HR-1 offers an excellent balance of high strength, HEE resistance, LCF performance, thermal conductivity, and ductility to meet the demanding requirements of channel-cooled nozzles and other components used with hydrogen and other propellants. The LP-DED–processed NASA HR-1 requires several post-processing heat treatment steps to achieve the material properties desirable for its intended application 6 . These steps include stress relief, homogenization, solution annealing, and aging for precipitation hardening. The stress relief treatment mitigates residual stresses accumulated during the LP-DED process and minimizes the potential for distortion. Homogenization, a common step for AM materials, reduces elemental segregation and promotes recrystallization to develop a more equiaxed grain structure. The subsequent solution annealing treatment heats the part to a solid solution temperature to dissolve the undesirable η-phase that forms during cooling from homogenization, followed by rapid cooling to retain an η-phase–free microstructure. Finally, aging promotes precipitation of the strengthening γ′ phase in the alloy. The integration of compositional design and optimized thermal processing enables high-quality LP-DED NASA HR-1 components with excellent microstructural and mechanical stability. Improved chemical and microstructure homogeneity enhances ductility and fatigue resistance—both critical for safe and reliable operation in high-pressure hydrogen environments. NASA has successfully fabricated and hot-fire tested multiple subscale and full-scale channel wall nozzles using LP-DED NASA HR-1 5,6, 9-14 . These efforts included process refinements to support thin-wall construction and various channel geometries. Throughout development, several key observations emerged. After homogenization, the as-built columnar grain structure transforms into a fully equiaxed microstructure. However, subsequent treatments—such as solution annealing and aging—result in changes that are more difficult to track. The grain structure remains largely unchanged, and the γ′ precipitates, typically 5–10 nm in diameter, are beyond the resolution of scanning electron microscopy (SEM). While transmission electron microscopy (TEM) can resolve these fine precipitates, TEM sample preparation is time-consuming and difficult for LP-DED material. As an alternative, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) offers a useful, qualitative approach to monitor precipitate evolution throughout different stages of heat treatment. The overall goal is to improve the understanding of how heat treatment affects the microstructure and mechanical performance of LP-DED NASA HR-1. This paper presents heat treatment design considerations, microstructural characterization, mechanical testing – including tensile and LCF testing in both air and hydrogen environments.

Superalloy

Advances in Entry Systems Modeling: Modeling Summer Visit 2025 Technical Reports

This NASA Technical Memorandum presents the collective work carried out during the Modeling Summer Visit (MSV) 2025, a collaborative research program between NASA Ames Research Center and three leading European research institutions: the University of Bordeaux, the von Karman Institute (VKI), and Ecole Polytechnique. Held from July 7th to August 1st, 2025, the NASA ARC MSV program brought together 42 researchers from Europe to work alongside NASA staff on 22 projects in entry systems modeling. The program was organized by Bruno Dias, Sergio Fraile-Izquierdo, and Jeremie Meurisse from Analytical Mechanics Associates, Inc., in collaboration with Marc Massot (Ecole Polytechnique), Jean Lachaud (University of Bordeaux), and Thierry Magin (VKI). The MSV program traces its origins to an initiative started by Nagi N. Mansour in 2018, with this 2025 edition representing a consolidation and expansion of that original vision. The projects were organized into six thematic groups: Porous Media, Numerical Methods, Plasma/Rarefied Methods, Experimental Reconstruction, Flow and Material Coupling Methods, and Transition and High-Speed Flows. Throughout the four-week program, participants presented their work in three public presentations (July 7th, July 21st, and August 1st), allowing for continuous feedback and discussion of their evolving research.

Plasmas