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At least 271 records · Page 15

Complete Initial Studies in Microstructural Studies of Nuclear Graphite

Nuclear graphite is a critical material for the performance and safety of high-temperature reactors, making its study essential for the successful deployment of next-generation reactors in the United States. During the past year, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has contributed extensively to advancing the understanding of nuclear graphite’s properties, behavior, and applications; particular focus has been given to irradiation effects, oxidation mechanisms, thermal and mechanical performance, and long-term stability under reactor conditions. This report provides an update on the ongoing publications being prepared at ORNL. These studies are collectively intended to build a comprehensive knowledge base on nuclear graphite. The studies focus on key aspects such as microstructural characterization, oxidation behavior, advanced analytical techniques, molten salt infiltration, technique development, and billet-to-billet variability. By summarizing the progress of these publications, this report outlines ORNL’s contributions to the field, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes future research directions. The findings presented in these studies will help enhance the understanding of nuclear graphite’s behavior, support the qualification of nuclear graphite materials, further the development of new techniques and guidelines for using microscopy techniques, and improve reactor safety and performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

RAG for FLAG: AI Assistance for a Physics Code

Artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly become an important tool in scientific research, where significant efforts are underway to develop tools that will expedite the research process. One area of particular impact is scientific software, which can be particularly complex, and therefore time consuming to learn and use effectively. AI assistants are increasingly helping to streamline the process by performing tasks such as interactively answering user questions or suggesting solutions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) develops several advanced scientific codes, such as FLAG, which can be used to run multiphysics simulations. With this study, our goal was to develop an AI assistant for FLAG that could help make the process of understanding the software and running physics simulations more efficient. To develop an AI assistant for FLAG, we used a method called retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), which is a technique that uses information from relevant data sources to enhance the accuracy of large language models (LLMs). We used the FLAG user manual and other FLAG documentation as the knowledge base for the RAG system. When a user provides a query, RAG retrieves relevant sections from the knowledge base in response, then uses those excerpts to generate grounded and contextually rich answers. We found that our AI assistant was able to provide context aware answers and source references to user queries. To evaluate performance, we developed a set of 40 benchmark questions and compared the accuracy of the responses to those of two standard LLMs without retrieval. Our AI assistant significantly outperformed the standard LLMs at answering FLAG-related questions, with an 82.5% accuracy rate, compared to 47.5% for both of the standard LLMs. This has the potential to make the process of learning and using FLAG much easier, especially for new users. Ultimately, it supports LANL’s broader mission by empowering scientists and engineers to focus more on discovery and analysis rather than on navigating complex software systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Establishing defect-property relationships for 2D-nanomaterials (Final technical report)

Studies of new families of two-dimensional nanomaterials (2DNMs) have established that they possess unique properties that diverge from those of their bulk counterparts. This project aimed to determine how tolerant 2DNMs are to extreme photon and particle fluxes and to identify the mechanisms governing their radiation response. Early work indicated that graphene is not as representative of other 2DNMs as previously assumed; however, the origin of this difference remained unclear. To address these knowledge gaps, this project investigated the physical processes occurring at multiple length scales in transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) and quantified their structural stability and property evolution under far-from-equilibrium conditions. In-situ and ex-situ ion and electron irradiations were performed to directly control and monitor defect formation in TMDs. Complementary density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to elucidate the mechanisms of defect generation and evolution. The outcomes of this work established mechanistic understanding of irradiation-induced defect formation in 2DNMs, quantified the radiation tolerance of TMDs, and built a fundamental knowledge base for correlating defect structures with material properties. Collectively, these results provide new insights into the stability of low-dimensional materials in extreme environments and enable the predictive design of radiation-tolerant 2DNMs.

2D materials↗

What Are Ontologies and When Should They Be Used?

Data without description is at best unusable, and at worst, misused. If we do not understand the assumptions and meaning of our data, we are unable to confidently use it. Data today is largely described within a database’s schema, detailing structure and primitive datatypes as part of a relational model, but if we require assurance some data value can be correctly evaluated alongside others beyond the immediate systems in which they are defined, a more portable, richer semantics is needed. Ontologies define knowledge unambiguously across systems and establish the means to reason upon said knowledge using logical inference. They model neutral domains of information rather than data definitions from software or databases that would only serve to enrich a single system’s idiosyncrasies. In this paper, we take a casual stance to explore what ontologies are, how they are built, why they are useful, and when they should be used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of Time Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis

Online synthesis of the power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins, and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light water reactors (LWRs), power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report aims to study the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a LWR. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative pressurized water reactor low-enriched uranium (LEU) core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used, as well, to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative (PBI) method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly under- or over-approximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumption leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum. The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in the low-enriched uranium fuel cycle considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Non-Abelian quasiparticles and topological superconductivity for the quantum information science

The research performed on this proposal lead to significant progress in understanding spectra of charge carrier holes in spin 3/2 valence bands in two-dimensional systems and topological phenomena in these systems; resulted in enhanced knowledge of topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions in electron and hole systems; lead to new breakthroughs in understanding quantum Hall systems, which is an important breeding ground for topological excitations; contributed to understanding of several aspects of theory of spin-orbit interactions; and understanding of hybrid superconductor/semiconductor structures. Methods and techniques used or developed in the research were effective in achieving its results. Some of the developed methods have been used by the research community. The achieved results are beneficial for both theorists and experimentalists in condensed matter and related areas of research, developed knowledge is important for progress in quantum science and technology, and therefore is of benefit to the public.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

CarbStor: Development, Analysis and Modification of Carbon Storing Model Soil Communities

Soil microbial communities carry out a number of key processes including plant growth promotion, bioremediation and cycling of nutrients. Carbon cycling is among the most important of these nutrients that are metabolized and processed by the soil microbial community. Many of the carbon inputs are converted to alternative organic forms of carbon that can be used by plants or act as biomass for microbial growth. However, inorganic forms of carbon can also be produced by soil microbial communities including calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). Production of calcium carbonate is beneficial for the ecosystem in several ways: it can stabilize soils and improve soil health, especially denser soils with high clay content, it can act as a method of bioremediation, it can serve as an alternative carbon source for plants and it can be a way to store carbon in soil in a stable, inorganic manner for the long term. While the chemistry surrounding individual species carrying out this process is well known what is lacking is an understanding of how species interact in a community to drive carbonate production. As all microbial species in soil exist in a community setting gaining this knowledge is critical to our predicting and controlling this microbial phenotype to greatly improve soil health. The CarbStor project is focused on developing, analyzing and modifying defined microbial soil consortia that express phenotypes at both the species and community level to convert carbon into recalcitrant stable sources such as precipitated carbonate or microbial necromass. To take full advantage of the soil community for this process we will need to fill several key knowledge gaps (KG), three of which are the focus of CarbStor. KG1: Whether and to what degree microbial communities can be developed that produce precipitated carbon via microbial metabolism. KG2: What interspecies interactions drive the individual member phenotypes in defined communities that lead to carbon precipitation. KG3: How can these interactions be modified to enhance carbon sequestration beyond what native communities are capable of. We hypothesize that in a carbon sequestering community only a subset of species will express phenotypes related to carbon storage processes. We also hypothesize that these phenotypes are expressed as a result of interactions with other species in the community that are not involved in carbon storage processes and that these interactions can be harnessed to enhance community carbon sequestration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Executive summary of error sources in dynamic surface temperature measurements

Obtaining bulk T requires measuring apparent sample interface T surface , knowledge of any window conditions T window , and knowledge of thermal transport from the sample to the window. To obtain bulk T with uncertainties below 5% requires relatively small uncertainties in each of these areas, and large uncertainties in one area require smaller uncertainties in others to maintain the error budget. For example, if T window is known to 10%, a 5% total uncertainty can be obtained if T surface is known to 1% and combined transport uncertainties are known to 20%. If T surface can only be measured to 2%, combined transport uncertainties must be 17% to reach the same overall uncertainty. As the form of transport is unknown at high pressure, and window temperatures are difficult to measure by their very nature, reducing surface T uncertainties is the practical first step. Here we will discuss various error sources in the measurement of apparent T surface , and which ones must be correctly obtained prior to the experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

CO2 Streams Captured From Industrial Processes and Corrosion of Steel Pipelines

Based on the knowledge accumulated in the last decade related to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) processes and the identified gaps in knowledge, our study identifies and quantifies the key issues that impact the corrosion of materials, specifically relating to the integrity of structures for the CO2 transport pipelines and provides a better understanding of the materials’ compatibility with CO2 steams with impurities. This will help to understand the corrosion risks associated with CO2 transport and injection and leverage existing infrastructure or rebuild new pipeline networks to transport CO2 with impurities for EOR or geological storage.

CO2 corrosion↗

Iodine Mass Tracking Research and Development Needs for Pyrochemical Fuel Cycles

This report was generated jointly by Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Idaho National Laboratory to provide a high-level summary of the current knowledge on the behavior of fission product iodine during reprocessing of used nuclear fuel, as well as provide recommended path forward for research and development activities to fill particular knowledge gaps. The focus of this work is on pyrochemical processing as is applied to light water reactor (LWR) oxide-based used nuclear fuels (UNF), however, some discussion of electrorefiner behavior from metal fuel processing equipment is also included.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Scientist-in-the-Loop Data Analytics Framework for Intelligent Simulation Model Tuning and Validation

This project developed a scientist-in-the-loop data analytics framework for intelligent simulation model tuning and validation, targeting the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its solar energy variant, WRF-Solar-BNL. Domain experts, such as climate scientists, depend on large-scale numerical simulations for knowledge discovery and decision-making, yet the complexity of parameter tuning and the disconnect between automated optimization and domain expertise pose significant challenges. We extended an interactive visual analytics framework that enables domain experts to observe and intervene in the computational steering process by identifying disagreements between the simulation model, surrogate model, and the expert’s domain knowledge. Using Bayesian Optimization with Gaussian Process Regression as the surrogate model, our system allows users to probe parameter relationships, analyze correlation patterns, and adjust tuning parameters in real time. We developed use cases for solar irradiance forecasting through sustained collaboration with Brookhaven National Laboratory, resolving critical model configuration challenges and achieving meaningful reductions in prediction error. The project supported one PhD student, one MS student, and eight undergraduate students across three Data Science Capstone projects, resulting in one master’s thesis.

Dasgupta, Aritra [New Jersey Institute of Technolo↗

FY24 Task 4: Studies of Phosphate and Fluoride Solubility for Dissolution of High Phosphate Tank Waste

Knowledge gaps have been identified in phosphate solubility in almost every single- and multi-component system, and particularly for aluminate in phosphate/hydroxide, where uncertainties in predicted values of aluminum solubility are greater than 50%. Solubility data of multicomponent, aqueous electrolytes containing sodium hydroxide, sodium fluoride, sodium phosphate, sodium nitrite, sodium nitrate, and dissolved gibbsite are also sparse. For example, for solutions of (i) sodium nitrate and sodium phosphate, data are only available at 30 and 50 °C, and for (ii) dissolved gibbsite in sodium hydroxide and sodium phosphate, only two data points are available at 20 and 40 °C. There is no data available on mixtures of sodium hydroxide, sodium phosphate, sodium fluoride, and dissolved gibbsite. These knowledge gaps were identified in a technical review of waste solubility data and the impact of dilution on solution stabilities and will be addressed in this work to predict aluminum hydroxide and sodium phosphate solubility in multicomponent electrolytes upon dilution, and upon variation of temperature. Results will provide the technical basis to develop accurate models for (i) gibbsite solubility and mass transfer of aluminum between solid and liquid forms following the sluicing of sludge and saltcake with water; and (ii) further blending of these suspensions with bismuth from bismuth phosphate waste, and zirconium and uranium left from the fuel decladding. This work will be essential to developing a disposition path for retrieval solutions from bismuth phosphate wastes. This effort would also support sludge washing to further reduce phosphate concentration if that process were to be added back to the flowsheet in the future.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen Education for a Decarbonized Global Economy (H 2 EDGE) (Final Technical Report)

The energy sector is undergoing rapid growth and transformation, creating urgent demand for a skilled workforce to support emerging technologies and resilient systems. Hydrogen is an emerging solution for “hard to abate” sectors, including heavy industry and transportation that also provides optionality for the electric system and enables long‑duration energy storage. As hydrogen scales from traditional industrial uses to new applications, success depends on knowledgeable engineers, technicians, planners, and operators safely deploying hydrogen technologies across the full value chain: production, delivery, storage, and end use. The H 2 EDGE initiative, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office from 2020 to 2025, was launched to prepare people for careers hydrogen and related technologies. Through its interactive approach, H 2 EDGE equipped stakeholders with knowledge and tools to build a reliable and sustainable energy future together. H 2 EDGE built a national network of academic and industry partners to deliver modular training, share open-access curricula, and engage diverse talent pipelines. The program leveraged EPRI’s extensive industry membership and expanded on the train-the-trainer model of the GridEd program to connect educators, employers, and community organizations across all regions of the U.S. New methods were introduced to more systematically map hydrogen competencies and assess curricula using traditional and AI-assisted approaches. Outcomes included delivery of professional short courses, developing university curriculum, sponsoring faculty and student projects, and engaging stakeholders through workshops, site tours, and webinars.

08 HYDROGEN↗

CdTe Core: Final Technical Report (FTR)

CdTe is presently the cost-leading thin-film PV technology, directly competing with Si at scale, even when domestically manufactured. While an impressive technology, its efficiency remains much below the detailed balance limit with the largest cause due to its low photovoltage and fill factor. To realize gains, the carrier concentration, minority carrier lifetime, and interface recombination all need to be improved simultaneously over historic levels. Using a new defect chemistry (group V doping instead of copper) has been identified as a viable route using single crystal systems. This project focused on implementing this new defect chemistry in scalable, polycrystalline thin-film photovoltaic CdTe devices with tasks focusing improvements to the front interface, absorber, and rear interface as well as capability development & stakeholder engagement. The goal of the project was to establish a strategy using devices, test structures, detailed characterization, and modeling to quantify the sources of losses in state-of-the-art CdTe photovoltaic devices. Using this strategy and advanced synthesis, losses at the front interface, absorber, and rear interface were worked on in parallel. The final objective was to significantly improve the voltage deficit in CdTe devices to enable improvements in photovoltage and efficiency that can be implemented by industry in the near-term. Over the course of the project, the team developed new characterization techniques, analysis, and modeling which were then applied to state-of-the-art materials generated internally and collaboratively. In particular to enable rapid progress, NREL worked closely with First Solar where NREL grew complete devices as well as ones that interleaved process steps where First Solar had completed different steps such as absorber growth or absorber growth and activation using their baseline methods. Using detailed characterization and analysis including photoemission, photoluminescence, and scanning probe techniques enabled understanding of the loss pathways and area for improvements in our own and First Solar s materials. Ultimately, this contributed to the first series of new world record CdTe efficiencies since 2016, culminating in a 23.1% certified cell that was P-doped along with As-doped cells of similar performance. Internally, NREL improved the statistical variation in baseline As-doped devices and improved average photovoltage by over 100 mV. This was done through an improvement in absorber quality, changed front interface, and improved back contact. In addition to materially improving the fabrication processes at NREL, characterization, analysis, and modeling were developed and disseminated. NREL also played a pivotal role in community building over the course of this project working closely with the Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium. NREL worked in a series of collaborations with academic and industry partners, leveraging knowledge and innovations from this project, as well as helped organize a series of workshops to ensure rapid progress in the field. Working closely with the academic community has led to a dissemination of knowledge; working with First Solar as increased US competitiveness First Solar expanded domestic production to ~10 GW and opened new facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Autonomous Ion Mass Spectrometer Sentry (AIMSS)

Satellite measurements of plasma density and temperature help predict the intensity of geomagnetic storms, which can impact satellites, communications, and power systems. Accurate forecasting requires knowledge of plasma composition. However, typical orbital mass spectrometers have difficulty distinguishing between nitrogen (N+) and oxygen (O+) ions due to their similar masses. This limitation makes it difficult to validate modern space weather models, which depend on accurate knowledge of ion composition in near-Earth space. N+ and O+ ions behave differently in space due to differences in their origin, transport, and loss mechanisms. Improving our ability to distinguish between these ions is critical for understanding and predicting space weather.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗