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DOE OSTI2025

Grid-responsive hydrogen production: Capital utilization and current density vs. efficiency in variable electricity markets

To achieve low-cost hydrogen production from water electrolyzers, grid tied electrolysis may need to operate dynamically to minimize the cost of supplying energy to the electrolyzer stack and produce hydrogen during low-cost hours and turn off/down during high-cost hours. Operating systems in this way can decrease capital utilization (capacity factor) and electricity costs. This strategy would shift the dominant cost drivers away from electricity (and thus efficiency) to the capital costs of the system, due to the underutilized capital when operating at low-capacity factors. Increasing the operational current density of the system could, in effect, reduce the capital cost of the system while producing hydrogen at a lower efficiency on a per unit energy basis. In the variable electricity cost profiles analyzed in this paper, increasing the current density for liquid alkaline from 0.5 A/cm2 to 1.5 Ac/m2 and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers from 2 A/cm2 to 4 A/cm2 resulted in substantial reductions in the levelized cost of hydrogen. Additionally, as capacity factors and electricity costs decrease, the optimal operating current density of the electrolyzer systems analyzed increases. These findings suggest R&D efforts should focus on increasing the operational current densities, reducing the turn down ratios, and understanding the durability implications of those strategies on low-temperature liquid alkaline and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Redox Mediators in Homogeneous Co-electrocatalysis

Homogeneous electrocatalysis has been well studied over the past several decades for the conversion of small molecules to useful products for green energy applications or as chemical feedstocks. However, in order for these catalyst systems to be used in industrial applications, their activity and stability must be improved. In naturally occurring enzymes, redox equivalents (electrons, often in a concerted manner with protons) are delivered to enzyme active sites by small molecules known as redox mediators (RMs). Inspired by this, co-electrocatalytic systems with homogeneous catalysts and RMs have been developed for the conversion of alcohols, nitrogen, unsaturated organic substrates, oxygen, and carbon dioxide. In these systems, the RMs have been shown to both increase the activity of the catalyst and shift selectivity to more desired products by altering catalytic cycles and/or avoiding high-energy intermediates. However, the area is currently underdeveloped and requires additional fundamental advancements in order to become a more general strategy. Furthermore, we summarize the recent examples of homogeneous co-electrocatalysis and discuss possible future directions for the field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

First observation of RMP ELM mitigation on MAST Upgrade

Abstract The first experimental attempts at controlling edge localised modes (ELMs) via the application of resonant magnetic perturbations on the MAST Upgrade tokamak are reported. Using the linear MHD model MARS-F, the phase shift between the upper and lower coil rows ΔΦ was optimised for toroidal mode number n = 1 and n = 2 fields, to provide forward guidance to experiments. In low β N discharges, the application of n = 1 3D fields caused the ELM frequency f E L M to increase by over a factor 20 relative to the reference, and also induced a locked mode, which did not cause a plasma termination nor an H-L back transition. However when β N was raised, this induced locked mode caused plasma termination which precluded mitigation access. Initially, applying a numerically optimised n = 2 field had no effect. However applying a rigid toroidal shift to this field caused a locked mode disruption, demonstrating the presence of a substantial n = 2 error field. Coil current ramps were conducted with ΔΦ set at 6 different values, resulting in either locked mode disruptions or no effect, but mitigation with n = 2 fields was not established.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solar neutrino detection in liquid xenon detectors via charged-current scattering to excited states

We investigate the prospects for real-time detection of solar neutrinos via the charged-current neutrino-nucleus scattering process in liquid xenon time projection chambers. We use a nuclear shell model, benchmarked with experimental data, to calculate the cross sections for populating specific excited states of the cesium nuclei produced by neutrino capture on Xe 131 and Xe 136 . The shell model is further used to compute the decay schemes of the low-lying 1 + excited states of Cs 136 , for which there is sparse experimental data. We explore the possibility of tagging the characteristic deexcitation γ rays/conversion electrons using two techniques: spatial separation of their energy deposits using event topology and their time separation using delayed coincidence. The efficiencies in each case are evaluated within a range of realistic detector parameters. We find that the topological signatures are likely to be dominated by radon backgrounds, but that a delayed-coincidence signature from long-lived states predicted in Cs 136 may enable background-free detection of CNO neutrino interactions in next-generation experiments with smaller uncertainty than current measurements. We also estimate the sensitivity as a function of exposure for detecting the solar-temperature-induced line shift in Be 7 neutrino emission, which may provide a new test of solar models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Shuttle Strategies for Parallel QCCD Architectures

Trapped ions (TIs) are at the forefront of quantum computing implementation, offering unparalleled coherence, fidelity, and connectivity. However, the scalability of TI systems is hampered by the limited capacity of individual ion traps, necessitating intricate ion shuttling for advanced computational tasks. The quantum charge-coupled device (QCCD) framework has emerged as a promising solution, facilitating ion mobility for universal quantum computation. Current QCCD architectures predominantly feature a linear topology, which is increasingly recognized as inefficient for complex quantum operations. Anticipating the shift toward more efficacious designs, this article introduces an innovative quantum scheduling strategy optimized for parallel QCCD topologies. Our strategy proposes a probabilistic formula for ion movement, alongside ingenious methods for local layer generation and layer compression, yielding a significant reduction in ion shuttle times. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our strategy not only substantially outstrips the linear model but also exhibits better performance over other parallel strategies that employ greedy algorithms. This is achieved through our nuanced resolution of complexities, such as traffic blocks and trap capacity limitations. The consequent reduction in shuttle operations leads to lower energy consumption and an enhancement in the quantum computer's fidelity, ultimately accelerating program execution times.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework Using Applied Process Analysis Methods to Assess Water Security in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current state of water security in the basin using robust statistical analysis methods such as the Process Analysis Method (PAM), SMART principle, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This resulted in the development of a comprehensive assessment framework for water security in the VG–TB river basin. This framework identified five key dimensions, with basin development activities (0.32), the ability to meet water needs (0.24), and natural disaster resilience (0.19) being the most crucial and water resource potential being the least crucial (0.11) according to the AHP methodology. The latter also highlighted 15 indicators, four of which are particularly influential, including waste resources (0.54), flood (0.53), water storage capacity (0.45), and basin governance (0.42). Furthermore, 28 variables with high weight factors were identified. This framework aligns with the UN-Water water security definition and addresses the global water sustainability criteria outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6). It enables the computation of a comprehensive Water Security Index (WSI) for specific regions, providing a strong foundation for decision-making and policy formulation. It aims to enhance water security in the context of climate change and support sustainable basin development, thereby guiding future research and policy decisions in water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conceptual design of inverted core lead bismuth eutectic fast reactor for marine applications

The development of an inverted core fast reactor aims to generate 60 MWth for about 30 Effective Full Power Years without refueling. The reactor design is a transportable reactor using UO{sub 2} fuel and lead-bismuth-eutectic cooled designed for marine applications and is intended to improve the reactor performances compared to the normal core design: better condition for passive cooling system capability by lower core pressure drop, taking advantage of potential power uprate from the lower maximum fuel temperature. Systematic design processes are presented in this work: fuel pin geometry selection, fuel assembly (FA) design, and core design. A relationship between pressure drops, coolant velocity, maximum fuel temperature, coolant channel diameter, and fuel volume fraction was introduced in a single graph used as a tool to select fuel pin geometry. Fuel fabrication capability also took place in consideration of FA design which led to 7 holes per FA, and two-dimensional temperature distribution studies were also carried out. Core design processes including radial zoning, axial zoning, and core optimization were conducted using Monte Carlo code MCS, which is UNIST CORE laboratory in-house code. The current core design uses 3 fuel enrichment levels and 3 FA types to control the local power distribution and power shift during its lifetime. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Grassroots Network and Community Roadmap for Interconnected Autonomous Science Laboratories for Accelerated Discovery

Scientific discovery is being revolutionized by AI and autonomous systems, yet current autonomous laboratories remain isolated islands unable to collaborate across institutions. We present the Autonomous Interconnected Science Lab Ecosystem (AISLE), a grassroots network transforming fragmented capabilities into a unified system that shorten the path from ideation to innovation to impact and accelerates discovery from decades to months. AISLE addresses five critical dimensions: (1) cross-institutional equipment orchestration, (2) intelligent data management with FAIR compliance, (3) AI-agent driven orchestration grounded in scientific principles, (4) interoperable agent communication interfaces, and (5) AI/ML-integrated scientific education. By connecting autonomous agents across institutional boundaries, autonomous science can unlock research spaces inaccessible to traditional approaches while democratizing cutting-edge technologies. This paradigm shift toward collaborative autonomous science promises breakthroughs in sustainable energy, materials development, and public health.

Ferreira da Silva, Rafael [Oak Ridge National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Toward the origins of binding energy shifts and “satellites” formation during plasma-XPS measurements

In-plasma x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (plasma-XPS) emerges as a powerful platform for real-time, in situ chemical analysis under conditions relevant to semiconductor processing and other plasma-enabled technologies. This study investigates the origins of binding energy (BE) shifts and the formation of “satellite” peaks observed during plasma-XPS measurements across conductive, dielectric, and gas-phase systems. Using a standard laboratory-based ambient pressure XPS apparatus coupled with an alternating current (AC)-driven capacitively coupled plasma source, we demonstrate that metastable surface species, such as transient Au oxides, can be detected during plasma exposure, revealing chemical states that are hardly accessible using conventional ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) XPS. In dielectric samples (e.g., undoped diamond, sapphire), we observe pressure- and plasma-type-dependent BE shifts of more than 50 eV, attributed to x-ray-induced and plasma-mediated surface charging. These shifts are mitigated at higher pressures/plasmas or in electronegative plasmas (e.g., O 2 ), the latter due to enhanced charge compensation mechanisms involving slow negative ions. For gas-phase species, AC-plasma excitation leads to spectral broadening and the emergence of “satellite” peaks with energy separations of a few electron volts, linked to oscillating local plasma potentials in the probing volume. Furthermore, these findings highlight the complex and important interplay between plasma parameters, surface charging, and local electric fields in shaping XPS spectra. Overall, plasma-XPS emerges as a critical metrological tool for probing transient surface chemistry, with implications for semiconductor processing, material synthesis, and plasma diagnostics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.

24/7↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Principle for Highly Active Metal Oxide Catalysts via NaCl-Based Solid Solution

Toward the preparation of industrial metal oxide catalysts, sacrificial organic templates, excessive solvents, complex impregnation, and drying steps are generally required. Here, we report a versatile rule for the simple synthesis of highly porous metal oxides with well-dispersed noble metal species. Porous metal oxides (Co 3 O 4 , Fe x O y , and Cr 2 O 3 ) are obtained with some surface areas (e.g., Cr 2 O3: 224 m 2 ·g -1 ) beyond the record value. Surprisingly, small noble metal nanoparticles (e.g., Pd: 3.1 and Pt: 3.2 nm) could be incorporated by this solid-state process simultaneously. Corresponding Rh-Co 3 O 4 , Pd-Fe x O y , and Pt-Cr 2 O 3 exhibit excellent performance: CH 4 combustion (T90 = ~360°C and thermal stability: >100 h at 680°C), hydrogenation of nitrobenzene and derivatives (turnover number [TON] = 2.49 × 104, 300 mmol per run), and reversed water gas shift (RWGS) reaction (44% CO 2 conversion with ~98% CO selectivity and thermal stability: >100 h at 500°C), respectively. Therefore, current principle via a NaCl-based solid solution could provide a solid-state, fast, and efficient route for processing metal oxide catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Single Application of Compost Can Leave Lasting Impacts on Soil Microbial Community Structure and Alter Cross-Domain Interaction Networks

Our current understanding suggests that nutrient management strategies applied to agricultural soils over multiple years are required to cause major and stable shifts in soil microbial communities. However, some studies suggest that agricultural soils can benefit even from sporadic, single additions of organic matter. Here we investigate how single additions of high-quality organic matter can cause significant shifts in microbial soil communities over multiple cropping cycles. We grew radishes in a tropical Oxisol soil for six crop cycles after a single application of a high-nitrogen compost or urea. At planting and before biomass harvest, we sampled soils influenced by the radish rhizosphere and sequenced bacterial and archaeal 16S and fungal ITS rDNA marker genes. We measured microbial richness and diversity, community composition and structure, and constructed correlation networks to predict cross-domain microbial interactions. We found that a single application of compost, compared to urea or control, resulted in a persistent improved plant biomass response and led to sustained changes in the soil microbial community throughout the duration of the 227-day study. Compost altered the structure of both the fungal and prokaryotic microbial communities, introduced new microorganisms that persisted in the resident soil system, and altered soil microbial correlation network structure and hub taxa. In contrast, fertilization with urea did not significantly alter the structure of soil microbial communities compared to the control but reduced network complexity and altered hub taxa. This study highlights the significant impacts that high-quality organic matter fertilization can exert on agricultural soil microbiomes and adds to the growing body of knowledge on using organic fertilizers as a way to steer the soil microbiome toward a healthier soil.

Heisey, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards a Techno-Economic Analysis of PCM Integrated Hybrid HVAC Systems

Thermal end uses dominate building energy consumption and are a major driver of peak demand. As heating is electrified, peak electrical power required will surge, prompting a need for innovative HVAC system designs and controls.These designs must incorporate novel technologies at the component level and new integration techniques at the system level. One such possibility involves the addition of thermal energy storage (TES) in heating and cooling equipment using a phase change material (PCM) heat exchanger. Here, thermal energy storage via phase change can be used to shift the HVAC system loads to times of lower electricity cost, reduced carbon intensity, and greater energy efficiency. Most of the current utilization of PCM in buildings involves passive components. By actively controlling when heat is stored and released from PCM, we can optimize the building HVAC system to cost-effectively meet consumer needs with the flexibility to draw on renewable energy resources when they are abundant and available. While this combination of technologies is promising in theory, simulation-based evaluation of a prototype can be difficult due to the modeling requirements at the component level and the large number of possible configurations and operating modes at the system level. To conduct this evaluation, we use the Modelica language for modeling and simulation because it enables users to represent the important physics of the problem, interchange and rearrange components in an efficient manner, and implement a range of control configurations. In this work, we considered three case studies: a portable building, a large commercial retail store, and a multifamily residential apartment unit. Each of these employs a different system design, ranging from a single package vertical unit incorporating PCM to a central plant with independent heat pump, evaporative cooling, and thermal energy storage components. This paper describes the technologies in question, presents modeling at the component and system levels, and demonstrates building energy and demand charge cost savings with local time-of-use tariffs in a hot-dry climate.

Helmns, Dre↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pathways for Sustainable Reaction Kinetics in Li-CO2 Batteries

Lithium-carbon dioxide (Li-CO2) batteries hold great promise for high-energy-density storage applications. However, advancing this technology as a sustainable alternative to Li-ion systems requires a deeper understanding of the underlying reaction mechanisms, which remain elusive. A key challenge stems from the added complexity introduced by the presence of oxygen (O2) in CO2 environment. In this study, we employed a stable Cu3(VBi)0.5Se4 mid-entropy catalyst and conducted a comprehensive investigation to uncover the underlying reaction mechanisms in Li-CO2 batteries under varying CO2/O2 ratios. Under pure CO2 conditions, the battery exhibits excellent rechargeability, sustaining up to 1200 cycles. However, at high current densities, the discharge potential drops significantly (below 2.0 V), primarily due to sluggish reaction kinetics caused by solid carbon formation. Interestingly, introducing O2 mitigates this limitation, leading to a 58% increase of the discharge potential (from 1.7 V to 2.7 V) at the high current density of 0.8 mA/cm2, signifying a substantial boost in energy output. Our results reveal that the reactions follow distinct pathways, shifting from surface- to solution-based mechanism, and may even exhibit coexistence of both mechanisms, depending on the CO2/O2 ratio. These findings offer new insights for designing high-performance and sustainable Li-gas batteries utilizing CO2 and O2 mixtures.

Ngo, Anh [University of illinois Chicago]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical Reduction of Flue Gas Carbon Dioxide to Commercially Viable C2-C4 Products (Final Report)

This is the final scientific/technical report for a DOE project focused on the electrochemical conversion of CO 2 in non-aqueous solvents to novel products. Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 provides an attractive route to produce valuable fuels and chemicals that can simultaneously lower greenhouse gas emissions when powered by renewable electricity. While recent technological advances have shown the feasibility of industrial CO 2 electroreduction, many challenges remain to improve this technology and expand the list of economically viable products. The vast majority of electrochemical CO 2 reduction research has been conducted in aqueous media under neutral to alkaline conditions, leading to commonly reported products including carbon monoxide, formic acid, methane, methanol, ethylene, acetic acid, and ethanol. In comparison, non-aqueous media for CO 2 reduction has been underexplored but represents a possible avenue to yield new products and improved operating conditions. The aim of the project was to convert waste CO 2 in the form of flue gas to a multicarbon C2 - C4 chemical product in a reactor designed to achieve economically competitive values of current density and selectivity. The project strived to advance the technology readiness of an electrochemical CO 2 reduction process in alcohol solvents from the proof-of-concept stage to a device capable of meeting performance metrics for commercial viability. In the initial plan, the University of Louisville researchers were to focus on investigating the electrochemical process and improving the faradaic efficiency for novel C2 – C4 species, while also working on a parallel effort to build a practical electrolysis reactor to markedly increase the CO 2 reduction current density. The reactor development effort also aimed to engineer a dual-electrolyte feed strategy with non-aqueous catholyte and aqueous anolyte to promote water oxidation as the coupling anodic half-reaction to enable a sustainable and economical overall process. At the outset, the University of North Dakota was to investigate the feasibility of operating directly from coal-derived flue gas without separate capture and purification. The research team sought to determine impurity effects and test mitigation strategies, as well as engineer the gaseous feed system for high reactor tolerance to lower CO 2 concentration. In the last half year of the project, the focus was planned to shift to integrating the advances in the catalysis, electrochemical conditions, reactor design, and flue gas compatibility into a fully functional device and improve it for maximum current density and faradaic efficiency for C2 – C4 species. Knowledge of the full system components, constraints, and maximum performance was then to be used as the basis for a thorough technoeconomic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) at the end of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting responses to climate change at Himalayan treelines revealed by population demographics of two dominant species

Abstract Alpine treelines are expected to shift upward due to recent climate change. However, interpretation of changes in montane systems has been problematic because effects of climate change are frequently confounded with those of land use changes. The eastern Himalaya, particularly Langtang National Park, Central Nepal, has been relatively undisturbed for centuries and thus presents an opportunity for studying climate change impacts on alpine treeline uncontaminated by potential confounding factors. We studied two dominant species, Abies spectabilis (AS) and Rhododendron campanulatum (RC) , above and below the treeline on two mountains. We constructed 13 transects, each spanning up to 400 m in elevation, in which we recorded height and state (dead or alive) of all trees, as well as slope, aspect, canopy density, and measures of anthropogenic and animal disturbance. All size classes of RC plants had lower mortality above treeline than below it, and young RC plants (<2 m tall) were at higher density above treeline than below. AS shows little evidence of a position change from the historic treeline, with a sudden extreme drop in density above treeline compared to below. Recruitment, as measured by size–class distribution, was greater above treeline than below for both species but AS is confined to ~25 m above treeline whereas RC is luxuriantly growing up to 200 m above treeline. Synthesis . Evidence suggests that the elevational limits of RC have shifted upward both because (a) young plants above treeline benefited from facilitation of recruitment by surrounding vegetation, allowing upward expansion of recruitment, and (b) temperature amelioration to mature plants increased adult survival. We predict that the current pure stand of RC growing above treeline will be colonized by AS that will, in turn, outshade and eventually relegate RC to be a minor component of the community, as is the current situation below the treeline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stream and ocean hydrodynamics mediate partial migration strategies in an amphidromous Hawaiian goby

Abstract Partial migration strategies, in which some individuals migrate but others do not, are widely observed in populations of migratory animals. Such patterns could arise via variation in migratory behaviors made by individual animals, via genetic variation in migratory predisposition, or simply by variation in migration opportunities mediated by environmental conditions. Here we use spatiotemporal variation in partial migration across populations of an amphidromous Hawaiian goby to test whether stream or ocean conditions favor completing its life cycle entirely within freshwater streams rather than undergoing an oceanic larval migration. Across 35 watersheds, microchemical analysis of otoliths revealed that most adult Awaous stamineus were freshwater residents (62% of n = 316 in 2009, 83% of n = 274 in 2011), but we found considerable variation among watersheds. We then tested the hypothesis that the prevalence of freshwater residency increases with the stability of stream flows and decreases with the availability of dispersal pathways arising from ocean hydrodynamics. We found that streams with low variation of daily discharge were home to a higher incidence of freshwater residents in each survey year. The magnitude of the shift in freshwater residency between survey years was positively associated with predicted interannual variability in the success of larval settlement in streams on each island based on passive drift in ocean currents. We built on these findings by developing a theoretical model of goby life history to further evaluate whether mediation of migration outcomes by stream and ocean hydrodynamics could be sufficient to explain the range of partial migration frequency observed across populations. The model illustrates that the proportion of larvae entering the ocean and differential survival of freshwater‐resident versus ocean‐going larvae are plausible mechanisms for range‐wide shifts in migration strategies. Thus, we propose that hydrologic variation in both ocean and stream environments contributes to spatiotemporal variation in the prevalence of migration phenotypes in A. stamineus . Our empirical and theoretical results suggest that the capacity for partial migration could enhance the persistence of metapopulations of diadromous fish when confronted with variable ocean and stream conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗