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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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467 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Nanoscopic Imaging of Self-Propelled Ultrasmall Catalytic Nanomotors

Ultrasmall nanomotors (<100 nm) are highly desirable nanomachines for their size-specific advantages over their larger counterparts in applications spanning nanomedicine, directed assembly, active sensing, and environmental remediation. While there are extensive studies on motors larger than 100 nm, the design and understanding of ultrasmall nanomotors have been scant due to the lack of high-resolution imaging of their propelled motions with orientation and shape details resolved. Here, we report the imaging of the propelled motions of catalytically powered ultrasmall nanomotors─hundreds of them─at the nanometer resolution using liquid-phase transmission electron microscopy. These nanomotors are Pt nanoparticles of asymmetric shapes (“tadpoles” and “boomerangs”), which are colloidally synthesized and observed to be fueled by the catalyzed decomposition of NaBH4 in solution. Statistical analysis of the orientation and position trajectories of fueled and unfueled motors, coupled with finite element simulation, reveals that the shape asymmetry alone is sufficient to induce local chemical concentration gradient and self-diffusiophoresis to act against random Brownian motion. Our work elucidates the colloidal design and fundamental forces involved in the motions of ultrasmall nanomotors, which hold promise as active nanomachines to perform tasks in confined environments such as drug delivery and chemical sensing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Giant Exfoliation Induced Magnetic Coercivity in Fe 3 GaTe 2

Permanent magnets with strong anisotropy and high coercivity underpin modern information and energy technologies, yet rare-earth-free alternatives remain limited. Here, we show that thickness engineering via mechanical exfoliation induces hard magnetic behavior in the van der Waals ferromagnet Fe 3 GaTe 2 . Bulk crystals exhibit Curie temperatures above 350 K but negligible room-temperature coercivity. When thinned below ∼100 nm, the coercive field is dramatically enhanced, reaching nearly 1 T at room temperature for in-plane fields—comparable to conventional hard magnets. Micromagnetic analysis reveals a crossover in magnetization reversal from domain-mediated processes in bulk samples to quasi-coherent rotation in thin flakes, driven by increased effective anisotropy and suppressed domain formation. This thickness-dependent transition enables tuning of magnetic hardness without chemical modification. Combined with high saturation magnetization and robust room-temperature performance, Fe 3 GaTe 2 emerges as a promising rare-earth-free material for spintronic applications. Its layered structure further allows integration into van der Waals heterostructures, where large in-plane coercivity can stabilize magnetic states against perturbations and interlayer coupling, offering potential for high-density nonvolatile memory and domain-wall-based devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Visualizing Crystallization Dynamics and Transformation Pathways of Disordered Rocksalt Oxides During Thermally Activated Sol–Gel Synthesis

Sol–gel synthesis is a wet-chemical processing route for fabricating functional materials with control over composition and microstructure at relatively low temperatures compared to conventional solid-state synthesis. While sol–gel process initiates with intermixed molecular precursors, the early-stage nucleation pathways are insufficiently understood. Here, in this study, the chemical and structural transformation of ion disordered rocksalt (DRX) Li 1.2 Mn 0.4 Ti 0.4 O 2 (LMTO), a promising cathode material for lithium batteries, is studied by multiscale characterizations. In situ heating transmission electron microscopy (TEM) using a liquid cell visualizes and identifies crystallization pathways at the nanoscale. While some regions follow a classical multi-step transition through thermodynamically stable intermediates, others exhibit a kinetic shortcut via a localized amorphous matrix to directly form the DRX structure. Macroscale Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy corroborates the findings and reveals that transition metal ions are more strongly incorporated into the acetate-coordinated network than lithium. Although in situ heating TEM captures diverse local transformation pathways, in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction indicates that the macroscopic transformation proceeds predominantly through spinel LMTO and lithium titanates toward DRX-LMTO. The findings uncover the spatiotemporal chemical and structural transformations in sol–gel derived DRX-LMTO materials, and call for fine-tuning of such sol–gel chemistries to manipulate the crystallization pathways and achieve target material homogeneity more efficiently.

cathode material↗
DOE OSTI2026

Studies of laser stimulated photodetachment from nanoparticles for particle charge measurements

Determining nanoparticle charge is more challenging than that for microparticles due to change in the particle size during the synthesis substantial plasma property variations, and difficulties in visualizing individual particles, rendering conventional microparticle charge diagnostics ineffective in dusty plasma. In this work, we utilized laser-stimulated photodetachment (LSPD) to deduce the mean charge of nanoparticles. Nanoparticles were grown in an Ar/C 2 H 2 mixture using a capacitively coupled RF discharge and the LSPD induced changes in the electron current monitored by a cylindrical Langmuir probe. LSPD signals were obtained and analyzed across different dust growth phases. The prolonged decay of electron current pulses was attributed to the presence of residual negative ions, caused by the effective electrostatic trapping of these ions and the potential post—LSPD re-formation of new ones. The particle charge was estimated by combining the laser-stimulated photodetachment signal from the probe with the dust density obtained from laser-light extinction using the measured nanoparticle size distribution. For a nanoparticles size range of approximately 100–250 nm and mean diameter of $d$ p ∼154.37 nm, the effective mean charge was estimated to be $\langle$$Q$$\rangle$ d $≈$ 37 elementary charge units. The measured charge values are lower than those predicted by orbital motion limited theory, which may be attributed to significant electron depletion in the nanodusty plasma. LSPD results in Ar/C 2 H 2 nano-dusty plasma confirm the applicability of this method for estimating individual nanoparticle charges. However, it has also been demonstrated that electron detachment from residual background negative ions can influence the detachment current decay and must be carefully considered.

dust particle charge↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioinspired Dry‐Steam Superinsulation Straw Foam

Abstract Cellulosic materials offer sustainable advantages for building energy conservation. However, their development has been hindered by reduced thermal performance, often caused by structural collapse during the transition from solution to solid. Inspired by natural goose down, a bio‐based, lightweight insulation foam derived from agricultural waste straw is presented. Through in situ synthesis, bio‐silica fibers with branched structures capable of supporting hollow silica microspheres are fabricated. After steam‐mediated processing, the resulting foam exhibit low density (95 mg cm − 3 ), high porosity (95.5%), low thermal conductivity (0.03 ± 0.003 W mK −1 ), and a cyclic compressive strength of 90 kPa at 50% strain. Owing to the synergistic microstructure formed by branched bio‐fibers and hollow silica spheres, the bio‐silica foam exhibit outstanding thermal insulation performance relative to other bio‐based foams prepared by ambient drying. A passivated insulation panel is further developed by incorporating this material as the core component, achieving a thermal conductivity of 0.0275 W mk −1 and flexural strength of 6.85 MPa. The panel demonstrated durability with stable thermal performance throughout a 60‐day outdoor test. Moreover, the bio‐silica foam shows a carbon footprint of 7.50 kgCO₂ kg −1 at 70.2 wt.% silica, highlighting its promise as a sustainable insulation solution for green buildings.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystal Growth Scale-Up and Stability of RbSr 2 X 5 :Eu Scintillators

The discovery and development of new scintillation materials support national security needs. In these applications, large volumes of scintillator crystals are needed to achieve efficient screening for contraband. Therefore, one important step in the discovery of new scintillator compositions is testing their feasibility for scale-up and their stability. In this work, high-quality Ø22 mm crystals of two new scintillators RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu were grown via the Vertical Bridgman method, and their scintillation properties were characterized. Here, the Ø22 mm RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu crystals could be grown with fast translation rates up to 3.5 mm/h. Both RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu had high scintillation performance, including light yields of 46,000 and 61,000 ph/MeV, respectively, for Ø22 × 35 mm crystals. Additionally, properties related to physical stability were investigated, including the coefficients of thermal expansion via high-temperature X-ray diffraction (HTXRD) as well as moisture sensitivity. HTXRD confirmed the absence of solid–solid phase transitions and showed that RbSr 2 Br 5 had minimal thermal expansion anisotropy compared to RbSr 2 I 5 and some other inorganic metal halide scintillators, which favors the growth of large-sized crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultrafast low-temperature metal–insulator interface phonon dynamics and heat transport in a Pt/Gd 3 Fe 5 O 12 heterostructure

Interfacial thermal and acoustic phenomena have an important role in quantum science and technology, including in spintronic and spincaloritronic materials and devices. Simultaneous measurements of the low-temperature thermal and acoustic properties of a metal/insulator heterostructure reveal distinct dynamics in the characteristic phonon frequency ranges of acoustic and thermal transport. The measurements probed a heterostructure consisting of a thin film of Pt on the ferrimagnetic insulator gadolinium iron garnet (Gd 3 Fe 5 O 12 , GdIG) grown epitaxially on a gadolinium gallium garnet substrate. Ultrafast structural dynamics within the Pt layer were tracked using time-resolved ultrafast x-ray diffraction and analyzed to probe interfacial acoustic and thermal properties. The rapid heating of the Pt layer by a 400 nm wavelength femtosecond-duration optical pulse produced transient structural changes that provided the stimulus for these measurements. Rapid heating produced a broadband acoustic pulse that was partially reflected by the Pt/GdIG interface. Temporal frequencies up to 740 GHz, corresponding to angular frequencies of several THz, were detected in a wavelet analysis of the acoustic oscillations of the strain in the Pt layer. The structural results were analyzed to determine (i) the acoustic damping coefficient and phonon mean free path in Pt at frequencies of hundreds of GHz and (ii) the Grüneisen anharmonicity parameter. The thermal conductance of the Pt/GdIG interface was tracked using the slower, tens-of-picosecond-scale, dynamics of the initial cooling of the heated Pt layer. Analysis using a model based on the Boltzmann transport equation shows that the phonon transmission is lower at the phonon frequencies relevant to thermal transport than for subterahertz regime acoustics.

Acoustic phenomena↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational simulation of asymmetric phase transformation in cracked Li₇La₃Zr₂O₁₂: Variant selection and chemo-mechanical implications

Coupling between microcracks and phase transformation in ion-conducting ceramics can jointly affect mechanical responses and ion transport. In this work we investigate the cubic-to-tetragonal phase transformation in Li₇La₃Zr₂O₁₂ in the presence of a microcrack under hydrostatic loading and quantify its implications for crack-tip stress concentration and Li-ion transport using phase-field and molecular dynamics simulations. The phase transformation exhibits a strong asymmetry between hydrostatic tension and compression. Under tension, the crack edge nucleates one tetragonal variant that amplifies the crack-tip stress intensity and promotes crack opening. Under compression, the crack tip nucleates a different tetragonal variant that enhances the stress-induced crack-closure tendency. Effective Li diffusivity analysis shows faster transport degradation under compression due to accelerated transformation kinetics, exposing a trade-off between mechanical stability and ionic conductivity. These results highlight the intertwined nature of cracking, phase transformation, and ionic transport in ion-conducting oxides and provide mechanistic insights into chemo-mechanical degradation of solid electrolytes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frontier Job-Centric Telemetry Dataset

Comprehensive analysis of high-performance computing (HPC) systems requires linking workload execution to system behavior. This kind of analysis is vital for diagnosing performance issues, managing capacity, detecting anomalous workloads, and understanding how applications interact with system hardware. This job-centric telemetry dataset unifies scheduler job records with node-level measurements, enabling direct association between workloads and their corresponding power, thermal, and performance characteristics. It contains sanitized, scheduler related metadata for 152,400 individual jobs that ran on the Frontier supercomputer and ended on selected days throughout 2024 and 2025, a subpopulation of ~6.8% of the total number of allocated jobs with non-zero run time on the system over that same period. Each is linked with files that contain telemetry time series records of the power utilization and temperature behavior of its allocated nodes and their processors during the run time of the job. Where available, a portion of the job files also contain network performance time series. Jobs are sampled from select days that reflect normal levels of user activity and possess job size distributions with large numbers of leadership class jobs (>20% of Frontier nodes). Jobs in this dataset attempt to best represent successful user workflows.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomic Dynamics of Multi‐Interfacial Migration and Transformations

Redox-induced interconversions of metal oxidation states typically result in multiple phase boundaries that separate chemically and structurally distinct oxides and suboxides. Directly probing such multi-interfacial reactions is challenging because of the difficulty in simultaneously resolving the multiple reaction fronts at the atomic scale. Using the example of CuO reduction in H 2 gas, a reaction pathway of CuO → monoclinic m-Cu 4 O 3 → Cu 2 O is demonstrated and identifies interfacial reaction fronts at the atomic scale, where the Cu 2 O/m-Cu 4 O 3 interface shows a diffuse-type interfacial transformation; while the lateral flow of interfacial ledges appears to control the m-Cu 4 O 3 /CuO transformation. Together with atomistic modeling, it is shown that such a multi-interface transformation results from the surface-reaction-induced formation of oxygen vacancies that diffuse into deeper atomic layers, thereby resulting in the formation of the lower oxides of Cu 2 O and m-Cu 4 O 3 , and activate the interfacial transformations. In conclusion, these results demonstrate the lively dynamics at the reaction fronts of the multiple interfaces and have substantial implications for controlling the microstructure and interphase boundaries by coupling the interplay between the surface reaction dynamics and the resulting mass transport and phase evolution in the subsurface and bulk.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Oxidizing Impurities on the Corrosion Behavior of Structural Alloys Exposed to MgCl 2 Molten Salt Vapor

The corrosion behavior of structural alloys SS304 and IN617 when exposed to vapors of MgCl 2 molten salt at 764 °C for 100 h in an argon atmosphere was investigated as a function of the level of oxidizing impurities (e.g., NaOH) present in the salt. Increasing the concentration of oxidizing impurities in the salt caused an increase in corrosion in both structural alloys, as measured by Cr depletion layers. A poorly adhered oxide scale layer containing Mg, Al, and Cr was observed on the surface of the metals, and local attack was observed as well. The Ni-based IN617 showed lower Cr depletion and less scale formation than the Fe-based SS304. These results demonstrate that oxidizing impurities in the molten salt will impact the vapor phase corrosion for structural members exposed to the molten salt headspace. This finding is highly relevant for understanding the effects of the vapor phase in molten salt applications, including molten salt thermal energy storage, molten salt nuclear reactors, and molten salt electrochemistry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning reveals that local structural motifs encode the thermodynamic state across the CuZr metallic glass-forming range

Metallic glasses derive their properties from the statistics of local atomic motifs rather than from long-range order, yet a quantitative, chemistry-specific link between motif populations and the underlying glassy state has remained elusive. In this work we combine large-scale molecular dynamics, Voronoi tessellation, deep neural networks, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify which local structural motifs define the glassy state of Cu—Zr metallic glasses. A dataset of 17,180 atomistic configurations spanning ten compositions (Cu 20 Zr 80 –Cu 80 Zr 20 ) and four quench rates (10 9 –10 12 K/s) is used to train a feed-forward neural network that regresses temperature across the 50–2000 K liquid–supercooled–glass range, achieving a mean absolute error of 19.89 K and R 2 = 0.9974, confirming that the local structural state is faithfully encoded in motif-level structure. SHAP analysis then reveals that a tightly coupled near-icosahedral family of motifs (coordination numbers (CN) 11–13, including the full icosahedron 001200 and its single-atom-perturbation sibling 10930) collectively encodes the thermodynamic state of the system across the full glass-forming range. The CN = 11–13 ordered members carry negative SHAP values at high populations, tracking the most deeply-quenched configurations, while 10930 shows the reversed signature consistent with its role as a soft-spot host whose population shrinks as the icosahedral network deepens. The analysis demonstrates that explainable machine learning can isolate the minimal motif vocabulary defining the glassy state and recovers the near-icosahedral building blocks previously identified by data-driven analyses of Cu—Zr. The approach provides a general, chemistry-specific route for characterizing the structural state of disordered materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The brighter-fatter effect in the JWST MIRI Si:As IBC detectors: I. Observations, impact on science, and modeling

Context.The Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on board theJames WebbSpace Telescope (JWST) uses three Si:As impurity band conduction (IBC) detector arrays. The output voltage level of each MIRI detector pixel is digitally recorded by sampling up the ramp. For uniform or low-contrast illumination, the pixel ramps become nonlinear in a predictable way, but in areas of high contrast, the nonlinearity curve becomes much more complex. The origin of the effect is poorly understood and currently not calibrated out of the data. Aims.We provide observational evidence of the brighter-fatter effect (BFE) in MIRI conventional and high-contrast coronagraphic imaging, low-resolution spectroscopy, and medium-resolution spectroscopy data, and we investigate the physical mechanism that gives rise to the effect on the MIRI detector pixel raw voltage integration ramps. Methods.We used public data from the JWST/MIRI commissioning and Cycle 1 phase. We also developed a numerical electrostatic model of the MIRI detectors using a modified version of the publicPoisson_CCDcode. Results.We find that the physical mechanism behind the BFE manifesting in MIRI data is fundamentally different to that of charge-coupled devices and photodiode arrays such as the Hawaii-XRG near-infrared detectors used by the NIRISS, NIRCam, and NIRSpec instruments on board JWST. Observationally, the BFE makes the JWST MIRI data yield 10–25% larger point sources and spectral line profiles as a function of the relative level of de-biasing of neighboring detector pixels. This broadening impacts the MIRI absolute flux calibration, time-series observations of faint companions, and point spread function modeling and subtraction. We also find that the intra-pixel 2D profile of the shrinking Si:As IBC detector depletion region directly impacts the accuracy of the pixel ramp nonlinearity calibration model.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Single particle – MC-ICP-MS for isotopic analysis of uranium particles

Single particle – multi-collector – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry (SP-MC-ICP-MS) was employed to measure a suspension of 1 µm U3O8 particles (∼1.3 pg total U/particle) to determine their individual isotopic compositions of 234U/238U, 235U/238U, and 236U/238U. The effects of different detector combinations for 235U and 238U, including secondary electron multipliers (SEM) and Faraday detectors (1011 and 1013 Ω amplifiers), were explored for accuracy and precision optimization on the observed 235U/238U. The minor isotopic ratios (i.e., 234U/238U and 236U/238U) were analyzed such that the 234U and 236U were monitored on SEM detectors and the 238U was monitored on a Faraday (1011 Ω) detector. Various integration times (5, 10, 25, and 50 ms) were investigated in all detector configurations to gain a better understanding of their impact on sensitivity, accuracy, and precision. For 235U/238U ratios of 1 µm U3O8 particles, a dual Faraday detector measurement with 1011 Ω was the optimal choice; measurement of 1021 particles yielded an average 235U/238U ratio of 0.00170 (14), a −1.8% relative difference (% RD) from the reference value. The minor isotopic compositions were determined to be 0.0000070 (14) and 0.0000758 (48) for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. These measurements correspond to <8% and <1% RD from their reference value for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. SP-MC-ICP-MS was also able to provide insight into measurement sensitivity. In these individual particles, merely 15 and 165 atto-grams (ag) of 234U and 236U were present (calculated). Initial limits of detection for SP-MC-ICP-MS were determined to be ∼1.0 ag (when measured via SEM detectors). This valuable approach is applicable to areas including nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards, and geochemical analysis, which require high-precision measurements of uranium within micron-sized particles.

Manard, Benjamin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000207400627)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences for reconstructing the evolutionary history of Galapagos giant tortoises

Genomic data from contemporary and historical samples often need to be coupled for evolutionary reconstructions of multitaxon complexes. However, the genetic data recovered from historical samples may result only in ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences (ulcWGS; <0.15× depth), leading to inaccurate evolutionary inferences given a preponderance of missing data. Using the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation as a study system (Chelonoidis spp., composed of 13 extant and four extinct lineages), we assembled a novel methodological pipeline that removes potential noise introduced by the missing data and enhances the evolutionary signal from ulcWGS samples. We leveraged existing tools for phylogenomic placement (EPA-ng), population genomic structure (smartsnp) and admixture (Admixfrog, NGSadmix) to demonstrate that the evolutionary history of samples can be uncovered with sequencing depths as low as 0.008–0.139×. Importantly, these approaches do not use genotype imputation of the ulcWGS samples, which would require extensive reference datasets. Our application to two cases of extinct lineages of Galapagos giant tortoises, with and without references from the same lineage, demonstrates the general value of the approach. We confirm where the extinct lineages from San Cristóbal and Santa Fe islands fit into the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation, and that these lineages were evolutionarily distinct entities.

ancient DNA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗