Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “stock modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps

States and utilities are developing increasingly ambitious energy goals. Part of the solution to meeting these goals is improving electric grid flexibility. This includes shifting electric demand to align with grid needs. Thus, identifying and using building energy efficiency and other distributed energy resources to produce the highest grid value requires highly resolved, accurate and accessible electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs). EULPs quantify how and when energy is used. Currently, few accurate and accessible end-use load profiles are available for utilities, public utility commissions, state energy offices and other stakeholders to use to prioritize investment and value energy efficiency, demand response, distributed generation and energy storage. High-quality EULPs are also critical for determining the time-sensitive value of efficiency and other distributed energy resources, and the widespread adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs).For example, EULPs can be used to accurately forecast energy savings in buildings or identify energy activities that can be shifted to different times of the day. This report serves as the first-year deliverable for a multiyear U.S. Department of Energy-funded project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that intends to produce a set of highly resolved EULPs of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps

This report serves as the first-year deliverable for a multiyear project that intends to produce a set of highly resolved electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs) of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

End Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

End Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock is a multiyear project to produce a set of highly resolved electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs) of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs. This presentation provides an overview of the project approach, status, goals, and challenges, and discusses what the project means for the Northeast region.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

It's All About the Envelope: Prioritizing Envelope Upgrades for Electrification of Cold Climate Homes

Building decarbonization via electrification on a clean grid is the most promising climate solution proposed to date for the building sector. In cold climate zones, building electrification will be driven in large part by moving from natural gas space heating to cold climate heat pumps (CCHPs). CCHPs are commercially available today, including economical cold climate air source heat pumps (ccASHPs). But there's one big problem - wide-scale adoption of ccASHPs will dramatically increase winter peak electricity demand, even with the highest efficiency ccASHP products. Furthermore, cold climate space heating loads will drive unprecedented electric system peaks during the lowest periods of renewable generation and are likely to overwhelm existing distribution systems. This scenario is avoidable by coupling electrification with building envelope upgrades to reduce peak heating loads. This paper presents a model, built from home energy audit and research data sets, that quantifies the above challenges. Results demonstrate how weatherization efforts coupled with additional high-performance envelope upgrade measures can prepare the building stock for electrification and show the benefit these measures can bring to future utility operations. Much of this envelope upgrade work is cost-effective, according to conservative cost-benefit testing and program successes to date, and is coupled with substantial non-energy benefits. However, persistent market barriers have made scaling of envelope retrofit work challenging for decades, suggesting additional policy support is required. Lessons learned from previous policy experience, combined with new technology and administrative support, create exciting potential for this decarbonization climate solution.

air sealing↗

Integration of Omics into a New Comprehensive Rate Law for Competitive Terminal Electron-Accepting Processes in Reactive Transport Models: Application to N, Fe, S, and Contaminant Transformations in Stream and Wetland Sediments

Surface waters represent important sources of alternate energy and drinking water in the United States, and characterizing the biogeochemical processes that affect surface water quality is relevant to the DOE-BER mission. Sediment biogeochemical processes regulate the release of carbon (C), nutrients, and contaminants to surface waters and thus influence water quality. Sediment biogeochemical processes are dynamic and affected by the deposition and remobilization of solid material and changes in environmental conditions driven by water discharge variations. Wetlands are important natural filters of surface waters which may either trap, metabolize, or mobilize nutrients and contaminants. Despite their importance, biogeochemical processes regulating nutrient and contaminant release and C transformation in stream and wetland sediments cannot be predicted accurately by current mathematical models. These reactive transport models largely rely on detectable changes in geochemical conditions to activate metabolic processes, do not accurately account for the competition between microbial processes, and poorly constrain effects of hydrological perturbations on biogeochemical processes. In this BER-SBR exploratory project, metagenomic and geochemical signatures were combined to identify microbially-mediated redox processes in anaerobic stream and wetland sediments from the Savannah River Site (SRS, ANL SFA) and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC, ORNL SFA) that play important roles in C, uranium (U), and mercury (Hg) transformations. In addition, sediment incubations were conducted to examine the competition between anaerobic respiration processes Finally, new rate laws were developed for reactive transport models that rely on complementary metagenomic and geochemical signatures to identify the underlying anaerobic microbial processes in stream and wetland sediments, describe the competition between the dominant metabolic processes involved in nutrient release and U and Hg mobilization, and more accurately quantify carbon transformation and the response of microbial processes to changes in redox conditions associated with hydrological forcing. These rate laws were optimized in batch reactors with SRS wetland sediments, where iron and sulfate reduction dominate. Anaerobic carbon remineralization processes followed the expected thermodynamic sequence of microbial respiration with depth in both sediments, except that geochemical signals indicated that sulfate reduction was inactive in EFPC sediments and moderate in SRS wetland sediments. Estimates indicated that microbial iron reduction contributed to at least half of the production of reduced iron in these sediments. Incubations demonstrated that nitrate reduction, denitrification, and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium were active in the natural EFPC sediment and activated upon nitrate amendment in these nitrate-rich sediments. In turn, these processes were outcompeted by the addition of either iron oxides or sulfate as alternative terminal electron acceptors. Although geochemical products of sulfate reduction were not detected in the incubations, the abundance of sulfate reduction genes increased with depth in the sediment and was equally more pronounced in treatments amended with either iron oxides or sulfate. Simultaneously, anaerobic sulfide oxidizing bacteria coupling sulfide oxidation to DNRA (and not conventional denitrification) were apparently enriched over time, regardless of the treatments. These findings indicate that sulfate reduction is important in freshwater stream sediments and probably catalyzed by a cryptic sulfur cycle involving nitrogen species, in which the sulfur products from sulfate reduction are immediately removed by side reactions and not detectable by geochemical measurements alone. Similar experiments in SRS sediments, however, demonstrated little interaction between nitrogen and sulfur cycling microorganisms. Sulfate reduction was impacted by the addition of more thermodynamically favorable electron acceptors, suggesting either that iron-reducing microorganisms outcompeted sulfate-reducing microorganisms for organic substrate, depleting the stock of electron donor available for sulfate reduction, or that the cryptic sulfur cycle was shunted by the precipitation of FeS generated as a result of the abiotic reduction of iron oxides by dissolved sulfide. A diagnostic modeling exercise was conducted to further investigate the competition between terminal electron accepting processes. As conventional kinetic models typically do not account for cryptic cycles and used inaccurate formulations to describe competition between microbial communities, new metabolic rate laws were developed that explicitly express the electron acceptor-specific enzyme of each energetically favorable metabolic process based on gene abundance detected in the incubations. The model was tested with the sediment slurry incubation data to determine whether substrate competition could explain the decrease in sulfate reduction observed in the presence of iron oxide competitor. The model was able to reproduce geochemical concentrations really well in each treatment once the model was calibrated with the unamended control, suggesting that microbial competition was indeed driven by thermodynamic considerations. Overall, carbon remineralization processes and rates will be reproduced much more realistically with the new metabolic rate laws.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Temporal changes in global soil respiration since 1987

As the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux, soil respiration (R S ) has been stimulated by climate warming. However, the magnitude and dynamics of such stimulations of soil respiration are highly uncertain at the global scale, undermining our confidence in future climate projections. Here, we present an analysis of global R S observations from 1987–2016. R S increased (P < 0.001) at a rate of 27.66 g C m -2 yr -2 (equivalent to 0.161 Pg C yr -2 ) in 1987–1999 globally but became unchanged in 2000–2016, which were related to complex temporal variations of temperature anomalies and soil C stocks. However, global heterotrophic respiration (R h ) derived from microbial decomposition of soil C increased in 1987–2016 (P < 0.001), suggesting accumulated soil C losses. Given the warmest years on records after 2015, our modeling analysis shows a possible resuscitation of global R S rise. This study of naturally occurring shifts in R S over recent decades has provided invaluable insights for designing more effective policies addressing future climate challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Storage to Enable Electricity as a Commodity

A lack of large-scale economical storage, demand-side flexibility, and the need to instantaneously balance supply and demand cause challenges for electricity as a commodity. With typical commodities, stock from periods of high production can be stored and sold during low production, smoothing demand and supply shocks. In electricity markets, high storage costs have long outweighed benefits, negating convenience yield; no-arbitrage models do not apply, and typical hedging strategies cannot be performed due to infinite carry costs. However, the mechanics of energy trading are changing due to advancing storage technologies, more price-responsive demands, and virtual bidding in electricity markets, shaping a system where electricity storage can be valued on factors other than diurnal arbitrage. We examine the valuation of electricity storage through the lens of commodity markets to assess the impacts of large-scale storage deployment.

energy storage↗

Identification of an Attenuated Substrain of Francisella tularensis SCHU S4 by Phenotypic and Genotypic Analyses

Pneumonic tularemia is a highly debilitating and potentially fatal disease caused by inhalation of Francisella tularensis. Most of our current understanding of its pathogenesis is based on the highly virulent F. tularensis subsp. tularensis strain SCHU S4. However, multiple sources of SCHU S4 have been maintained and propagated independently over the years, potentially generating genetic variants with altered virulence. In this study, the virulence of four SCHU S4 stocks (NR-10492, NR-28534, NR-643 from BEI Resources and FTS-635 from Battelle Memorial Institute) along with another virulent subsp. tularensis strain, MA00-2987, were assessed in parallel. In the Fischer 344 rat model of pneumonic tularemia, NR-643 and FTS-635 were found to be highly attenuated compared to NR-10492, NR-28534, and MA00-2987. In the NZW rabbit model of pneumonic tularemia, NR-643 caused morbidity but not mortality even at a dose equivalent to 500x the LD 50 for NR-10492. Genetic analyses revealed that NR-10492 and NR-28534 were identical to each other, and nearly identical to the reference SCHU S4 sequence. NR-643 and FTS-635 were identical to each other but were found to have nine regions of difference in the genomic sequence when compared to the published reference SCHU S4 sequence. Given the genetic differences and decreased virulence, NR-643/FTS-635 should be clearly designated as a separate SCHU S4 substrain and no longer utilized in efficacy studies to evaluate potential vaccines and therapeutics against tularemia. View Full-Text

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

circular economy↗

An Energy Calculator for Simple Commercial Buildings

According to the EIA, simple commercial buildings account for 97% of total commercial building stock. However, most simple commercial buildings for example small- to mid-sized offices, retail, schools and warehouses do not benefit from the data-driven decision-making capabilities of whole-building energy modeling. The high cost of custom modeling limits the use of energy modeling of simple buildings for new construction or retrofit measures. Lack of tools providing helpful information on interactive savings estimates creates difficulties in meeting aggressive decarbonization and energy efficiency goals for simple building designers and utility program managers. This paper reviews a beta phase Simple Building Calculator with the ability to generate relatively accurate and interactive modeling results based on a limited but robust set of inputs. It can evaluate whole-building or single measure savings in new or existing buildings, compare measure package choices, or provide simplified performance modeling for energy codes and utility incentives. The tool combines physical (annual whole building prototype simulation) and statistical modeling techniques to predict annual energy performance. It supports a variety of building characteristics for envelope, HVAC, and lighting with parameters ranging from vintage to max tech configurations, as well as support for single-zone and simple multi-zone HVAC systems. The Simple Building Calculator was designed to provide immediate feedback for otherwise computationally intensive tasks like measure comparison, development of multiple measure package combinations, or verification that measures meet efficiency targets—all with the goal of providing a tool for quick annual energy simulation of simple commercial buildings.

Hart, Reid↗

Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century

A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Behind-the-meter Infrastructure Costs for Electrification Progression (BICEP) Model

The Behind-the-meter Infrastructure Costs for Electrification Progression (BICEP) model quantifies the behind-the-meter (BTM) electrical upgrades required for decarbonization through electrification by comparing the expected change in capacity requirements from the electrification technologies to the existing capacity in distributed energy resources (DER) stock (including buildings).

Yoder, Tim↗

ResStock Measure Documentation: Light Air Sealing, Attic Floor Insulation, and Duct Sealing and Insulation

This report is part of series describing a variety of different ResStock(TM) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Light Envelope" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results. All results can be accessed on the ResStock Open Energy Data Initiative "End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock" data lake and on the data viewer at resstock.nlr.gov.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dietary uptake of geosmin in rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss )

Geosmin is a primary source of muddy/earthy ‘off-flavors’ in farmed fish, which may render their organoleptic quality unacceptable to consumers. Model systems of geosmin uptake typically comprise exposure to waterborne geosmin that is absorbed via the gills. The present research demonstrates dietary exposure as an alternative route of geosmin uptake in Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fillets. Trout (average initial weight of 355 g) were stocked in quadruplicate compartmentalized raceways (N = 4 compartments per treatment, n = 50 fish per compartment) supplied with first-use, flow-through water (4.5 complete turnovers per hour). Fish were fed diets containing 0 (control dose), 0.005 (low dose), 0.05 (medium dose), or 0.5 (high dose) mg geosmin/kg feed at 1% body weight/day for four weeks. Fillets (12 fillets/diet/week plus 12 pre-trial fillet samples) and weekly feed and water samples were analyzed via GC–MS to determine geosmin concentrations. Feeding behavior was documented daily according to a four-point scale. ANOVA with post-hoc Tukey tests and polynomial contrast, regression, correlation, and chi-squared statistical analyses were applied to data (α = 0.05 significance level). Palatability of feed did not hinder consumption of the geosmin-spiked feeds: although fish responded positively to all feeds, the most aggressive feeding behavior was observed among those fed medium and high dose feed. Geosmin was effectively imparted into fillets after one week, and no significant temporal effect was found after four weeks. Mean geosmin concentrations significantly increased in fillets from low (mean of 26 ng/kg geosmin) to medium (202 ng/kg) to high (441 ng/kg) dose feed groups during the trial. Polynomial contrasts and regression modeling validated this significant positive effect of dose on geosmin uptake, with an estimated 166 ng/kg rise in fillet-geosmin for every log 10 increase in feed concentration. Waterborne geosmin levels immediately post-feeding were conditionally independent of concentrations in feed and fillets, therefore dietary uptake was affirmed as the predominant mechanism of absorption in the present experimental system. Finally, based on these findings, geosmin-spiked feeds may be used to induce predictable, repeatable levels of this off-flavor compound in fillets and serve as a model system for further investigation of sensory quality and off-flavor mitigation strategies for farm-raised fish.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Rock Valley Direct Comparison Relocation Working Group Location Results and Recommendations (Version 4.0)

The Source Physics Experiments (SPE) were designed to improve our physics-based understanding of explosion sources for the purposes of nuclear test monitoring. Phase I consisted of 6 chemical explosions in the Climax Stock Granite of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), while Phase II consisted of 4 explosions in a contrasting dry alluvium geology (DAG) in Yucca Flat, providing essential data in various media and emplacement conditions to further modeling efforts. For Phase III, the Rock Valley Direct Comparison (RVDC) seeks to directly compare earthquake and explosion source types. An unusually shallow series of events in 1993 along the Rock Valley Fault Zone in the southeastern portion of the NNSS has been targeted for this direct comparison. Depth ranges for the events, previously estimated to be less than 3 km, is achievable by modern drilling techniques and accessibility to the epicentral locations would require minimal improvements to the infrastructure. The events providing this unique opportunity for direct comparison are the focus of this report.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cold-Climate Packaged Heat Pumps - Resistance is Futile

The U.S. currently has a large market for room/zonal space conditioning equipment focused primarily on cooling, namely packaged terminal air conditioners (PTACs), packaged terminal heat pumps (PTHPs), and room air conditioners. This equipment largely relies on electric resistance for heating, particularly when outdoor temperatures fall to 40°F or below, presenting a compelling opportunity for energy savings and carbon reductions from reverse cycle heating. This paper provides an overview of cold climate packaged heat pump technologies in the market capable of high output down to outdoor temperatures of 5°F and identifies the technological and market barriers to adoption. For state-of-the-art cold climate packaged heat pumps sold in the retrofit market, defrost meltwater management is the principal barrier to implementation. An energy use analysis is conducted on state-of-the-art cold climate packaged heat pumps for heating and cooling loads by building vintage and climate zone. Potential solutions to defrost meltwater are proposed and modeled for their impact on heating energy efficiency. A national impact assessment estimates the aggregate energy savings and carbon reductions if cold climate packaged heat pumps were to replace existing PTACs and PTHPs in the U.S. building stock. A national, two-track approach is proposed for increasing market adoption in the replacement and new construction markets.

ACEEE Summer Study, cold climate, heat pumps, ccph↗

Do we have globally representative data to understand soil processes?

Understanding and modeling soils and soil organic matter (SOM) are central to a variety of human needs, from food production to ecosystem management. Soil data have been collected for over a century, but the global spatial and process representativeness of soil data remains unclear. We assessed the representativeness of currently available soil data that could be used to understand a variety of SOM processes. We used 16 open-source soil databases and data from over 281,000 unique locations globally, categorizing the databases into three main data types necessary to understand SOM processes: soil carbon stocks and fluxes, mechanistic drivers of these stocks and fluxes, and soil carbon gain or loss potential. We found that stock and driver data have extensive global coverage. However, data on soil carbon gain or loss potential, particularly data describing change in soils over time such as time series data, are severely limited in their global coverage. We conclude that while significant strides have been made in measuring soil carbon stocks and fluxes, and their drivers, we are limited in global data related to changes in soils over time. Our recommendations for soil data generators are to ensure precise metadata reporting and prioritizing sampling in underrepresented areas like tropical, arctic, mountainous, wetland and arid regions. We also encourage designing revisit schemes that explicitly support change detection and reporting multi-modal datasets that can aid in model development. Targeted measurement of low coverage soil data types and regions is necessary for a range of applications including current and future biogeochemical predictions, and their management and policy implications.

carbon fluxes↗