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DOE OSTI2024

The Active Asteroids Citizen Science Program: Overview and First Results

Abstract We present the Citizen Science program Active Asteroids and describe discoveries stemming from our ongoing project. Our NASA Partner program is hosted on the Zooniverse online platform and launched on 2021 August 31, with the goal of engaging the community in the search for active asteroids—asteroids with comet-like tails or comae. We also set out to identify other unusual active solar system objects, such as active Centaurs, active quasi-Hilda asteroids (QHAs), and Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Active objects are rare in large part because they are difficult to identify, so we ask volunteers to assist us in searching for active bodies in our collection of millions of images of known minor planets. We produced these cutout images with our project pipeline that makes use of publicly available Dark Energy Camera data. Since the project launch, roughly 8300 volunteers have scrutinized some 430,000 images to great effect, which we describe in this work. In total, we have identified previously unknown activity on 15 asteroids, plus one Centaur, that were thought to be asteroidal (i.e., inactive). Of the asteroids, we classify four as active QHAs, seven as JFCs, and four as active asteroids, consisting of one main-belt comet (MBC) and three MBC candidates. We also include our findings concerning known active objects that our program facilitated, an unanticipated avenue of scientific discovery. These include discovering activity occurring during an orbital epoch for which objects were not known to be active, and the reclassification of objects based on our dynamical analyses.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Selective depolymerization of polyolefin copolymer via high-entropy alloy catalyzed pyrolysis in a double-layered ultrafast heating reactor

Chemical recycling of polyolefin copolymers (PCPs) is essential for mitigating plastic pollution, yet achieving selective depolymerization into C 2 –C 3 monomers at high productivity remains challenging. Here, we introduce a double-layered ultrafast heating reactor (DUHR) that integrates Joule heating with a high-entropy alloy (HEA) catalyst composed of near-equimolar Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, and Ni. We achieve highly selective depolymerization of PCP into ethylene and propylene, yielding a 70% non-condensable fraction. Significant aromatic fractions form via radical-driven pathways—a behavior distinct from conventional externally heated pyrolyzers—highlighting DUHR's ability to generate reactive species and modulate reaction pathways. Furthermore, these findings demonstrate an effective strategy for chemical recycling of real-world plastic waste for polyolefin circularity and sustainable resource recovery.

Chemical recycling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interleaved bond frustration in a triangular lattice antiferromagnet

Frustration of long-range order via lattice geometry amplifies fluctuations and generates ground states that are highly sensitive to perturbations. Traditionally, geometric frustration is used to engineer unconventional magnetic states; however, the charge degree of freedom and bond order can be similarly frustrated. Finding materials that host both frustrated magnetic and bond networks holds promise for engineering structural and magnetic states with the potential of coupling to one another via either magnetic or strain fields. Here we identify an unusual instance of this coexistence in the triangular lattice antiferromagnets LnCd 3 P 3 (Ln = lanthanides). These compounds feature two-dimensional planes of unique trigonal planar CdP 3 units with an underlying bond instability that is frustrated via emergent kagome ice correlations. This bond instability is interleaved in between layers of frustrated magnetic moments. Furthermore, our results establish LnCd 3 P 3 as a rare materials class in which frustrated magnetism is embedded within a dopable semiconductor with a frustrated bond order instability.

Gomez Alvarado, S. J. [University of California, S↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing the role of local tunnel variations in early-stage lithiation of α-MnO₂ nanowires via in situ TEM

Understanding lithium-ion transport in tunnel-structured manganese oxides is essential for designing high-performance lithium-ion battery electrode materials. Here, we elucidate the early-stage lithiation mechanism of potassium-stabilized α-MnO 2 nanowires using in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) coupled with electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), high-resolution TEM (HRTEM), and geometric phase analysis (GPA). Real-time TEM imaging reveals clear volume expansion at the reaction front, while EELS analysis uncovers lithium-ion diffusion far beyond this region, where no visible expansion is observed, indicating fast, defect-assisted transport. GPA and HRTEM analyses show that localized tensile and compressive strain fields, originating from pre-existing local tunnel structural variations, persist after lithiation. The tensile-strained regions enable lithium-ion insertion with minimal lattice distortion, offering additional free volume that facilitates rapid lithium-ion accommodation ahead of the structural transformation. Our results demonstrate a local tunnel variation-mediated fast diffusion pathway that precedes bulk reaction, underscoring the critical role of local strain in enabling early-stage lithium transport. Given the structural versatility of MnO 2 and its ability to accommodate diverse atomic arrangements beyond the well-known tunnel phases (β-, γ-, δ-, λ-, R-phases), our findings highlight the importance of understanding and engineering local structural environments. This work provides fundamental insights into the interplay between defects, strain, and ion dynamics, and presents defect engineering as a promising approach to enhance both rate performance and structural stability in manganese-based cathodes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tuning Anisotropic Optical Properties of Inorganic and Hybrid Organic–Inorganic MXenes via Topochemical Surface Modification

Surface groups are central to the properties of MXenes, yet their role in optical anisotropy remains largely unexplored. Here, we use a topochemical route to synthesize single crystals of stacked Ti 3 C 2 Cl 2 and hybrid organic–inorganic MXenes (h-MXenes) with lateral sizes of 38–75 μm, rotational registry, and tunable interlayer spacing. Solid-state NMR spectroscopy shows that topochemical substitution generates mixed amido, imido, and hydride surface motifs, which modify the electronic structure of the Ti 3 C 2 inorganic core. Imaging spectroscopic ellipsometry with micron-scale spatial resolution enables reconstruction of the complex dielectric tensor of individual multilayer crystals. Ti 3 C 2 Cl 2 exhibits a type-II hyperbolicity above 930 nm, whereas h-MXenes do not display hyperbolicity within the measured 300–1700 nm window, instead showing reduced in-plane conductivity, suppressed out-of-plane light absorption, and a chain-length-dependent blue shift of a near-infrared absorption feature. These results demonstrate topochemical surface modification as a direct handle for engineering MXenes as surface-programmable optical media.

Hybrid materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

O Corona, where art thou? eROSITA’s view of UV-optical-IR variability-selected massive black holes in low-mass galaxies

Finding massive black holes (MBHs,M BH ≈ 10 4 –10 7 M ⊙ ) in the nuclei of low-mass galaxies $\left( {{M_*}\mathop {\mathop < \limits_ }\limits_ {{10}^{10}}{M_ \odot }} \right)$ is crucial to constrain seeding and growth of black holes over cosmic time, but it is particularly challenging due to their low accretion luminosities. Variability selection via long-term photometric ultraviolet, optical, or infrared (UVOIR) light curves has proved effective and identifies lower-Eddington ratios compared to broad and narrow optical spectral lines searches. In the inefficient accretion regime, X-ray and radio searches are effective, but they have been limited to small samples. Therefore, differences between selection techniques have remained uncertain. Here, we present the first large systematic investigation of the X-ray properties of a sample of known MBH candidates in dwarf galaxies. We extracted X-ray photometry and spectra of a sample of ~200 UVOIR variability-selected MBHs and significantly detected 17 of them in the deepest available SRG/eROSITA image, of which four are newly discovered X-ray sources and two are new secure MBHs. This implies that tens to hundreds of LSST MBHs will have SRG/eROSITA counterparts, depending on the seeding model adopted. Surprisingly, the stacked X-ray images of the many non-detected MBHs are incompatible with standard disk-corona relations, typical of active galactic nuclei, inferred from both the optical and radio fluxes. They are instead compatible with the X-ray emission predicted for normal galaxies. After careful consideration of potential biases, we identified that this X-ray weakness needs a physical origin. A possibility is that a canonical X-ray corona might be lacking in the majority of this population of UVOIR-variability selected low-mass galaxies or that unusual accretion modes and spectral energy distributions are in place for MBHs in dwarf galaxies. This result reveals the potential for severe biases in occupation fractions derived from data from only one waveband combined with SEDs and scaling relations of more massive black holes and galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Flow in a Microreactor Core: From High-Fidelity CFD to Subchannel Analysis

The accurate prediction of pressure drop in tightly packed, low–Reynolds number (Re) bare rod bundles is essential for the thermal-hydraulic design of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) reactor and other microreactor concepts. However, existing friction factor correlations, particularly the upgraded Cheng-Todreas (UCTD) correlation, have limited validation for the small pitch-to-diameter ratios (P/Ds) and transitional flow conditions characteristic of these systems. In this work, we perform high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LESs) of both an infinite bare rod bundle and a finite bare 37-pin scalloped rod bundle across the range 1000≤ 𝑅𝑒 ≤5500. The simulations reveal strong gap vortex–driven transitional behavior and indicate that the UCTD may underpredict the friction factor by up to 28% at 𝑃/𝐷 = 1.05. Using the LES-calculated pressure drops, we formulate a new friction factor correlation that follows the Cheng-Todreas functional form but is calibrated for low-Re and tightly packed geometries representative of a MARVEL-like reactor. The correlation is implemented in the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) subchannel module and compared against both the LES and UCTD predictions. Across all subchannel types, the proposed model reduces the streamwise velocity differences from as high as 44% (UCTD) to below 9%, and decreases the pressure gradient differences from 13% to 25% (UCTD) to 0.7% to 7% relative to the LES results. These results suggest that the new correlation has the potential to improve the pressure drop and flow field predictions for such geometries, highlighting the importance of high-fidelity simulations in supporting microreactor thermal-hydraulic model development and motivating future pressure drop experiments for compact rod bundles to further validate these findings.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generation of 3.3-mJ, 2.45-µm, sub-2-cycle laser pulses via hollow-core fiber pulse compression

We demonstrate nonlinear compression of mid-infrared pulses from a Cr:ZnSe chirped-pulse amplifier using a gas-filled stretched hollow-core fiber followed by bulk-material compression. Starting from 90 fs, 2.45 µm pulses with 5.3 mJ energy, spectral broadening in the gas-filled capillary combined with optimized dispersion management enables compression to 15 fs, less than two optical cycles at 2.45 µm, with 3.3 mJ pulse energy, corresponding to a peak power of approximately 0.12 TW. The simplicity of the approach, based on a single hollow-core fiber stage and bulk dispersion compensation, makes it scalable to higher energies and establishes a robust route to mid-infrared drivers for high harmonic generation and attosecond applications.

Britton, Mathew [SLAC National Accelerator Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microstructural Engineering of Cu-Rich Nanoprecipitate formation in NiCoFeCrCu0.12 High-Entropy Alloy via Severe Plastic Deformation for Enhanced Irradiation Tolerance

This study demonstrates a defect-engineering approach for controlling Cu-rich precipitates in FeNiCrCoCu0.2 high-entropy alloys (Cu-HEAs), delivering a novel pathway for next-generation nuclear reactor materials with superior irradiation resistance. This work establishes that severe plastic deformation (SPD) processing via Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE) and Friction Stir Layer Deposition (FSLD) creates dense dislocation networks and subgrain boundaries that fundamentally alter precipitation behavior under identical thermal treatments. Atom probe tomography (APT) indicates that SPD produces a metastable, atomically homogeneous solid solution that, upon moderate heat treatment (500°C/10 hour), develops remarkedly stronger Cu clustering than the as-cast counterpart. High-temperature exposure (800°C/100 h) produces near-pure Cu precipitates (~90 at% Cu) with significantly enhanced defect-sink efficacy in SPD-processed alloys: precipitate sizes of 50-60 nm and number densities of 2.7-3.8 × 10¹7 m?³, compared to 89 nm and 0.44 × 10¹7 m?³ in as-cast materials. Collectively, the findings establish defect-mediated precipitation control as a scalable, high-impact route to tailor sink density and distribution in HEAs, enabling microstructures optimized for irradiation tolerance and mechanical robustness in nuclear reactor environments.

Meher, Subhashish↗

DOE OSTI2023

The active CGCG 077-102 NED02 galaxy within the Abell 2063 galaxy cluster

Context.Within the framework of investigating the link between the central super massive black holes in the cores of galaxies and the galaxies themselves, we detected a variable X-ray source in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02, which is a member of the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster of galaxies. Aims.Our goal is to combine X-ray and optical data to demonstrate that this object harbors an active super massive black hole in its core, and to relate this to the dynamical status of the galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster. Methods.We usedChandraandXMM-Newtonarchival data to derive the X-ray spectral shape and variability. We also obtained optical spectroscopy to detect the expected emission lines that are typically found in active galactic nuclei. Finally, we used public ZTF imaging data to investigate the optical variability. Results.There is no evidence of multiple X-ray sources or extended components within CGCG 077-102 NED02. Single X-ray spectral models fit the source well. We detect significant, nonrandom inter-observation 0.5–10 keV X-ray flux variabilities, for observations separated by ∼4 days for short-term variations and by up to ∼700 days for long-term variations. Optical spectroscopy points toward a passive galaxy for CGCG 077-102 NED01 and a Seyfert for CGCG 077-102 NED02. The classification of CGCG 077-102 NED02 is also consistent with its X-ray luminosity of over 10 42 erg s −1 . We do not detect short-term variability in the optical ZTF light curves. However, we find a significant long-term stochastic variability in theg-band that can be well described by the damped random walk model with a best-fit characteristic damping timescale ofτ DRW = 30 −12 +28 days. Finally, the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair is deeply embedded within the Abell 2063 potential, with a long enough history within this massive structure to have been affected by the influence of this cluster for a long time. Conclusions.Our observations point toward a moderately massive black hole in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02 of ∼10 6 M ⊙ . As compared to another similar pair in the literature, CGCG 077-102 NED02 is not heavily obscured, perhaps because of the surrounding intracluster medium ram-pressure stripping.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal stability of 3D interface Cu/Nb nanolaminates

Nanocrystalline alloys are promising structural materials yet lack thermal stability in many cases. Recent work shows that interface structure has an outsize effect on the thermal behavior of nanostructured alloys. Here, this work focuses on the role of controlled heterophase interface structure in the thermal evolution of model Cu/Nb nanolaminates. We introduce 3D interfaces containing nanoscale heterogeneities in all spatial dimensions between Cu and Nb, forming 3D Cu/Nb. TEM, nanoindentation, and DSC are used in tandem to establish thermal stability and to identify shifts in microstructure as a function of static annealing temperature. 3D interfaces are shown to survive annealing to 300 °C for 1 hr., while 3D Cu/Nb microstructure evolves to form low-density and voided regions correlating to the onset of layer pinch-off between 500 and 600 °C annealing temperatures. A diffusivity- and vacancy energetics-based mechanism is developed to explain void formation driven by 3D interface degradation at elevated temperature.

3D interfaces↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced fast-ion transport calculations of m = n = 1 fishbone-like instabilities in MAST-U

Fast-ion transport associated with an m = n = 1 fishbone-like burst in MAST-U discharge 47128 is investigated using a reduced guiding-center-based transport model (ORBIT-Kick) constrained by multi-diagnostic measurements. The two-dimensional beam-emission spectroscopy system provides measurements of the core poloidal mode structure and fluctuation amplitude, while EFIT++ reconstructions constrained by the motional Stark effect diagnostic indicate a flat q-profile with q 0 > 1⁠, indicating the absence of a resonant q = 1 surface and supporting a pressure-driven infernal-mode interpretation. Analytic m = n = 1 displacement profiles consistent with the measured core mode structure and equilibrium constraints are used as the mode structure inputs to ORBIT-Kick. The calculations show that the dominant resonances occur between the mode and co-passing fast ions, producing redistribution localized near the magnetic axis. Synthetic neutron camera signals from TRANSP-Kick recover up to 90% of the experimentally observed neutron deficit at the time of peak mode amplitude, indicating that the measured m = n = 1 mode is a dominant contributor to core fast-ion transport. However, the synthetic neutron signals recover rapidly, whereas the measured neutron emission continues to decrease after the peak amplitude. In conclusion, the remaining discrepancy may arise from contributions not included in the present single-harmonic model, including higher-m and higher-n harmonics, multi-harmonic interactions, and additional transport mechanisms, motivating future diagnostic development and modeling efforts to resolve and incorporate these additional contributions.

Wong, Henry H. [University of California, Los Ange↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nonequilibrium dynamics of two-level systems directly after cryogenic alternating bias

Two-level systems (TLSs) are a dominant decoherence mechanism in superconducting qubits, microwave kinetic inductance detectors, and quantum dots. TLSs are tunneling states commonly found in amorphous materials and interfaces, which interact electromechanically, leading to energy loss. Fluctuations in the frequency of the TLSs are a significant problem for qubit operation and force recalibration every few hours. In this study, we probe the effect of alternating bias at cryogenic temperatures on TLSs in a purpose-built LC oscillator. When an in situ alternating bias is applied, the steady-state spectra of the TLSs disappear. Spectroscopy reveals transient behavior, in which the TLS frequency fluctuates on the order of minutes. Thermal cycling above 10 K reverses these effects, restoring the TLS spectrum to its original state. Importantly, the intrinsic loss tangent of the LC oscillator remains unchanged before and after the application of the alternating bias. We propose that the disappearance of the steady-state spectrum is caused by nonequilibrium energy buildup from strain in the oxide film introduced by the pulsed voltage-bias sequence. Understanding this nonequilibrium energy could shed light on TLS fluctuations and reduce the calibration requirements for qubits.

general physics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design and fabrication of ion traps for low RF power dissipation

Large surface-electrode ion traps with multiple trapping regions and junctions are a natural approach to scaling trapped ion quantum computers, supporting the connectivity and ion counts necessary for complex quantum algorithms. However, a major hurdle in this scaling is on-chip power dissipation from the applied RF voltage, which increases at a rate between linear and cubic relative to trap size, depending on whether the losses are dielectric or Ohmic. Here, we present two versions of a trap with features designed to reduce both types of RF power dissipation. The first variant contains a raised RF electrode that increases the electrode–ground distance to reduce capacitance. Different DC voltage sources are demonstrated on this trap to show that technical noise before the filter remains the dominant source of voltage noise and therefore motional heating. The second variant additionally includes a method for removing dielectric from beneath the RF electrode to further reduce dielectric losses. These traps were demonstrated at room temperature with 40 Ca + ions. In conclusion, the similar heating rates and heating rate axial frequency dependencies between 2.4 and 3.0 MHz illustrate that this dielectric modification is not detrimental to trap performance.

Sterk, J. D. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Protein Display on Bacterial Spores through an Extensive Survey of Coat Components

The profound stability of bacterial spores makes them a promising platform for biotechnological applications like biocatalysis, bioremediation, drug delivery, etc. However, though the Bacillus subtilis spore is composed of >40 types of proteins, only ∼12 have been explored as fusion carriers for protein display. Here, we assessed the suitability of 33 spore proteins (SPs) as enzyme display carriers by direct allele tagging at native genomic loci. Of the 33 SPs investigated, 26 formed functional fusions with β-glucuronidase (GUS)─a ∼272 kDa homotetramer. This almost triples the number of SPs assessed for enzyme display and doubles the number of functional fusions documented in the literature. We quantitatively assessed 1) SP promoter activation dynamics, 2) GUS activity on spores, 3) surface availability, and 4) protection from thermal and proteolytic degradation. Multicopy expression and pairwise coexpression of the most promising SP-GUS fusions highlighted the complexity of spore structure/assembly and the difficulty in predicting compatibility between different SP fusions. We also assessed the suitability of engineered spores to degrade PET (polyethylene terephthalate) films and found that surface-exposed SPs were most effective. Beyond the broad survey, a key outcome of our work was the identification of SscA (small spore coat assembly protein A) as an effective spore display carrier. SscA supported enzyme activity at least 4-fold higher than any other SP, including the well-established anchor, CotY. We attribute this to its promoter, which demonstrated early and sustained activation relative to other SPs and its small size (∼3 kDa), which likely minimally interferes with enzyme folding, oligomerization, and activity. Labeling and genetic studies, its hydrophobic nature, and low surface availability suggest that SscA assembles within the inner spore coat, which makes it stabilizing and suitable for many biocatalytic applications. Overall, this work serves as a knowledge base to advance the biotechnological utility of B. subtilis spores.

Bacillus subtilis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Activating magnetite ores for aqueous ironmaking at high current densities

Low-temperature electrochemical cells reducing iron oxides to metal in alkaline electrolytes can support fully electrified steelmaking processes. Previous studies on these cells have primarily focused on high-surface-area hematite, Fe 2 O 3 , reactants whereas attempts to reduce suspensions of magnetite, Fe 3 O 4 —one of the two feedstocks for existing ironmaking reactors—have generally been limited to low rates of reaction (<30 mA cm −2 ). Here, in this study, we control the crystalline domain size of Fe 2 O 3 and Fe 3 O 4 particles in 10 M NaOH electrolytes to study how the nanoscale morphology of oxides controls the rate of electrochemical ironmaking. Rotating-ring disk electrode measurements of Fe 2+ , in situ Raman spectroscopy of the electrode surface, and ex situ electron microscopy were consistent with a hypothesized passivation process at Fe 3 O 4 surfaces that may prevent the continuous formation of soluble intermediates. Sufficiently small (<100 nm diameter) oxide particles yielded Fe partial current densities >160 mA cm −2 , a fivefold increase relative to previously reported rates for Fe 3 O 4 suspensions and comparable to active Fe 2 O 3 . Electron microscopy revealed that electrodeposited films were composed of micron-scale crystalline Fe domains with a porous film of Fe 3 O 4 nanoparticles and supports a model where Fe is grown primarily from soluble Fe 2+ intermediates. Based on these insights, inactive blast-furnace-grade iron-oxides were transformed into high surface area nanoparticles (1.6 to 229.2 m 2 g −1 ) via reprecipitation, leading to a ninefold enhancement in faradaic efficiency and an Fe partial current density of 120 mA cm −2 . When integrated with chlor-iron cells producing reagents for reprecipitation, this approach could lead to a cost-competitive process for electrochemical ironmaking from industrially relevant feedstocks.

TEM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single particle – MC-ICP-MS for isotopic analysis of uranium particles

Single particle – multi-collector – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry (SP-MC-ICP-MS) was employed to measure a suspension of 1 µm U3O8 particles (∼1.3 pg total U/particle) to determine their individual isotopic compositions of 234U/238U, 235U/238U, and 236U/238U. The effects of different detector combinations for 235U and 238U, including secondary electron multipliers (SEM) and Faraday detectors (1011 and 1013 Ω amplifiers), were explored for accuracy and precision optimization on the observed 235U/238U. The minor isotopic ratios (i.e., 234U/238U and 236U/238U) were analyzed such that the 234U and 236U were monitored on SEM detectors and the 238U was monitored on a Faraday (1011 Ω) detector. Various integration times (5, 10, 25, and 50 ms) were investigated in all detector configurations to gain a better understanding of their impact on sensitivity, accuracy, and precision. For 235U/238U ratios of 1 µm U3O8 particles, a dual Faraday detector measurement with 1011 Ω was the optimal choice; measurement of 1021 particles yielded an average 235U/238U ratio of 0.00170 (14), a −1.8% relative difference (% RD) from the reference value. The minor isotopic compositions were determined to be 0.0000070 (14) and 0.0000758 (48) for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. These measurements correspond to <8% and <1% RD from their reference value for the 234U/238U and 236U/238U, respectively. SP-MC-ICP-MS was also able to provide insight into measurement sensitivity. In these individual particles, merely 15 and 165 atto-grams (ag) of 234U and 236U were present (calculated). Initial limits of detection for SP-MC-ICP-MS were determined to be ∼1.0 ag (when measured via SEM detectors). This valuable approach is applicable to areas including nuclear forensics, nuclear safeguards, and geochemical analysis, which require high-precision measurements of uranium within micron-sized particles.

Manard, Benjamin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000207400627)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗