Model-form error correction for an agent-based model of infectious diseases
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An analysis of the spacecraft configurations and space missions for the Earth Orbit Shuttle traffic model based on an end-to-end loading of payloads is presented. Two possible reusable tugs are considered. The space missions are described with respect to the following: (1) number of earth orbit shuttle flights by inclination, (2) total payloads to orbit, (3) energy stages required, and (4) characteristics of reusable tug.
An analysis of the spacecraft configurations and space missions for the Earth Orbit Shuttle traffic model based on side-by-side loading of payloads is presented. The reusable tugs to be employed for the mission are examined. The space missions are described with respect to the following: (1) number of Earth Orbit Shuttle flights by inclination, (2) total payloads to orbit, (3) energy states required, and (4) characteristics of reusable tug.
NASA's successful development of next generation space vehicles, habitats, and robotic systems will require reliable hardware and software systems. The aim of this initiative is to develop modeling methodology and tools to support Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for software assurance and reliability analysis. This effort expands the Unified Modeling Language (UML) software design models to include fault data for the extraction of Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for software. We explored different modeling approaches to integrate the UML software design models with the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) system models to generate an integrated model and reliability tools that take into account software and hardware interfaces.The benefits of this concept directly affect the safety community with quick turnarounds to produce software assurance and reliability analysis artifacts and the ability to visualize failure effects, both hardware and software. The result is enhanced system design integrity and early identification of system risks. This initiative will enable software assurance activities early in the system design lifecycle, facilitating the discovery of design weaknesses and enhancing the capability to produce safe, hazard-free systems
A hybrid approach to qualitative and temporal reasoning, using a device-oriented model-based representation in conjunction with both consistency-based and classification diagnosis methods, can be effectively used to monitor and control a complex electromechanical system. An example of this approach is given in some recent tests of the Thermal Expert System (TEXSYS) in control of the Boeing Aerospace Thermal Bus System (BATBS), a prototype two-phase Space Station Freedom thermal bus. The constraints of realtime performance and changing target hardware led to significant changes in the initial approach, including a reduction in the use of deep structural reasoning and the addition of temporal reasoning capabilities. TEXSYS test results show the successful completion of both nominal control and fault recovery actions with the BATBS.
The paper presents a way to robustly command a system of systems as a single entity. Instead of modeling each component system in isolation and then manually crafting interaction protocols, this approach starts with a model of the collective population as a single system. By compiling the model into separate elements for each component system and utilizing a teamwork model for coordination, it circumvents the complexities of manually crafting robust interaction protocols. The resulting systems are both globally responsive by virtue of a team oriented interaction model and locally responsive by virtue of a distributed approach to model-based fault detection, isolation, and recovery.
The fast-paced growth in digitization of smart grid components enhances system observability and remote-control capabilities through efficient communication. However, enhanced connectivity results in heightened system vulnerability towards cybersecurity risks in the cyber-physical power system. Coordinated cyber-attacks (CCA), when undetected, lead to system-wide impact in terms of large disturbances or widespread outages. Detecting CCA in the cyber layer is critical to thwart cyber-attacks in real-time before the attack impacts the physical system. The challenge of locating CCA stems from the complex grid dynamics, making it difficult to distinguish between normal operational variations and cyber-attack impact. CCA often employs multiple attack vectors targeting geographically distributed components, further complicating CCA identification. Existing research in intrusion detection is primarily focused on the transmission network and limited to detecting individual attacks. In this paper, a novel proactive DCA strategy is proposed for early detection of CCA by establishing correlations among distinct attack events through model-based reinforcement learning that utilizes abductive reasoning to conclude the attacker goal. The solution includes understanding the system model, learning the system dynamics, and correlating individual cyber-attacks to extract the attacker’s objective. The developed learning algorithm identifies the most probable attack path to reach the attacker’s objective by predicting the next attack steps. A DNP3-based cyber-physical co-simulation testbed is developed to test the proposed algorithm using the IEEE 13-node test feeder.
This paper describes the theory and considerations in the application of model-based techniques to assimilate information from disjoint knowledge sources for performing NASA's Fault Management (FM)-related activities using the TEAMS® toolset. FM consists of the operational mitigation of existing and impending spacecraft failures. NASA's FM directives have both design-phase and operational-phase goals. This paper highlights recent studies by QSI and DST of the capabilities required in the TEAMS® toolset for conducting FM activities with the aim of reducing operating costs, increasing autonomy, and conforming to time schedules. These studies use and extend the analytic capabilities of QSI's TEAMS® toolset to conduct a range of FM activities within a centralized platform.
The High Density Vertiplex (HDV) subproject of NASA’s Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) project adopted Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE)in July of 2020, prior to subproject formulation. A small and lean team of HDV Systems Engineers(SE) are utilizing MagicDraw to execute NASA SE processes via MBSE. The SEs learned how to use MagicDraw from scratch and HDV is the first project for which the SEs have utilized MagicDraw. This paper will demonstrate project technical execution via MBSE, utilizing the digital elements built into the SysML (Systems Modeling Language). SysML provides a model-centric means of carrying out the NASA SE common technical processes by providing tools for complete system modeling, including requirements and interface management and design capture. The authors also leverage and extend SysML to perform other SE tasks, such as Verification and Validation (V&V)tracking. MBSE has two main purposes for HDV: 1) documenting the subproject’s logical architecture for distribution outside of the subproject, 2) capturing the subproject’s physical architecture in a single-source-of-truth for use by the subproject’s members. This paper details the challenges, lessons learned, and solutions that were encountered in implementing MBSE in the first iteration on a multi-iteration, full-lifecycle design, build, fly project.
The High Density Vertiplex (HDV) subproject of NASA’s Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) project adopted Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) in July of 2020, prior to subproject formulation. A small and lean team of HDV Systems Engineers (SE) are utilizing MagicDraw to execute NASA SE processes via MBSE. The SEs learned how to use MagicDraw from scratch and HDV is the first project for which the SEs have utilized MagicDraw. This presentation will demonstrate project technical execution via MBSE, utilizing the digital elements built into the SysML (Systems Modeling Language). SysML provides a model-centric means of carrying out the NASA SE common technical processes by providing tools for complete system modeling, including requirements and interface management and design capture. The authors also leverage and extend SysML to perform other SE tasks, such as Verification and Validation (V&V) tracking. MBSE has two main purposes for HDV: 1) documenting the subproject’s logical architecture for distribution outside of the subproject, 2) capturing the subproject’s physical architecture in a single-source-of-truth for use by the subproject’s members. This presentation details the challenges, lessons learned, and solutions that were encountered in implementing MBSE in the first iteration on a multi-iteration, full-lifecycle design, build, fly project.
Optics tuning in transfer lines and LINACs can be challenging due to the fact that multiple combinations of machine settings can lead to the same diagnostic output. Moreover, the lack of a periodic solution can limit the ability to infer optics in the same way as rings from BPM signals. Model based approaches are often used to assist with the optics tuning in combination with optimization or parameter estimation. Here we have developed a novel approach using machine learning inverse models trained on a known configuration to detect variations in quadrupole settings without explicitly including them in the model. This paper shows a comparison of neural network models and linear models on both a simulation based study and experimental studies conducted at the AGS to RHIC transfer line at Brookhaven National Lab.
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This work represents a part of a project to develop an atmospheric general circulation model based on the semi-Lagrangian advection of potential vorticity (PC) with divergence as the companion prognostic variable.
A new model dissipation rate equation is proposed based on the dynamic equation of the mean-square vorticity fluctuation for large Reynolds number turbulence. The advantage of working with the vorticity fluctuation equation is that the physical meanings of the terms in this equation are more clear than those in the dissipation rate equation. Hence, the model development based on the vorticity fluctuation equation is more straightforward. The resulting form of the model equation is consistent with the spectral energy cascade analysis introduced by Lumley. The proposed model dissipation rate equation is numerically well behaved and can be applied to any level of turbulence modeling. It is applied to a realizable eddy viscosity model. Flows that are examined include: rotating homogeneous shear flows; free shear flows; a channel flow and flat plate boundary layers with and without pressure gradients; and backward facing step separated flows. In most cases, the present model predictions show considerable improvement over the standard kappa-epsilon model.
This document discusses the verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration of the Model Based Verification (MBV) portion of the verification instrument set being developed under the Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach research initiative. Code Q of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) funds this project. The NASA Goddard Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) facility manages this research program at the NASA agency level and the Assurance Technology Program Office (ATPO) manages the research locally at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (California institute of Technology) where the research is being carried out.
Recent drinking water regulations have imposed the need for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) remediation. In response, treatment facilities may be required to retrofit existing treatment schemes to treat PFAS below maximum contaminant levels (MCLs). Adsorption technologies such as granular activated carbon (GAC) and ion exchange (IX) have been demonstrated to be effective; however, there are limited techno-economic metrics available which provide guidance on technology selection and design for diverse PFAS-containing source water conditions. Process systems engineering (PSE) tools which can traditionally perform these analyses are hindered by the data availability, model validity, and understanding of treatment phenomena for emerging contaminants. This work employs published data regressions, statistical models, process models, techno-economic analyses, and other process systems tools in a model-based uncertainty framework to consider the limitations of emerging contaminant research. Through this analysis framework, economic results are provided as probabilistic distributions based on the uncertainty of the models and diverse conditions that treatment facilities experience.
The pilot study is led by the Integration Engineering group in NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP). The Integration Engineering (IE) group is responsible for managing the interfaces between the spacecraft and launch vehicle. This pilot investigates the utility of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) with respect to managing and verifying interface requirements. The main objectives of the pilot are to model several key aspects of the Mars 2020 integrated operations and interface requirements based on the design and verification artifacts from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and to demonstrate how MBSE could be used by LSP to gain further insight on the interface between the spacecraft and launch vehicle as well as to enhance how LSP manages the launch service. The method used to accomplish this pilot started through familiarization of SysML, MagicDraw, and the Mars 2020 and MSL systems through books, tutorials, and NASA documentation. MSL was chosen as the focus of the model since its processes and verifications translate easily to the Mars 2020 mission. The study was further focused by modeling specialized systems and processes within MSL in order to demonstrate the utility of MBSE for the rest of the mission. The systems chosen were the In-Flight Disconnect (IFD) system and the Mass Properties process. The IFD was chosen as a system of focus since it is an interface between the spacecraft and launch vehicle which can demonstrate the usefulness of MBSE from a system perspective. The Mass Properties process was chosen as a process of focus since the verifications for mass properties occur throughout the lifecycle and can demonstrate the usefulness of MBSE from a multi-discipline perspective. Several iterations of both perspectives have been modeled and evaluated. While the pilot study will continue for another 2 weeks, pros and cons of using MBSE for LSP IE have been identified. A pro of using MBSE includes an integrated view of the disciplines, requirements, and verifications leading up to launch. The model allows IE to understand the relationships between disciplines throughout test activities and verifications. Additionally, the relationships between disciplines and integration tasks are generally consistent. The model allows for the generic relationships and tasks to be captured and used throughout multiple mission models should LSP further pursue MBSE. A con of MBSE is the amount of time it takes upfront to understand MBSE and create a useful model. The upfront time it takes to create a useful model is heavily discussed in MBSE literature and is a consistent con throughout the known applications of MBSE. The need to understand SysML and the software chosen also poses the possibility of a "bottleneck" or one person being the sole MBSE user for the working group. The utility of MBSE will continue to be evaluated through the remainder of the study. In conclusion, the original objectives of the pilot study were to use artifacts from MSL to model key aspects of Mars 2020 and demonstrate how MBSE could be used by LSP to gain insight into the spacecraft and launch vehicle interfaces. Progress has been made in modeling and identifying the utility of MBSE to LSP IE and will continue to be made until the pilot study's conclusion in mid-August. The results of this study will produce initial models, modeling instructions and examples, and a summary of MBSE's utility for future use by LSP.
This paper is for the AIAA Space Conference. The ability of systems engineers to use model-based systems engineering (MBSE) to generate self-consistent, up-to-date systems engineering products for project life-cycle and technical reviews is an important aspect for the continued and accelerated acceptance of MBSE. Currently, many review products are generated using labor-intensive, error-prone approaches based on documents, spreadsheets, and chart sets; a promised benefit of MBSE is that users will experience reductions in inconsistencies and errors. This work examines features of SysML that can be used to generate systems engineering products. Model elements, relationships, tables, and diagrams are identified for a large number of the typical systems engineering artifacts. A SysML system model can contain and generate most systems engineering products to a significant extent and this paper provides a guide on how to use MBSE to generate products for project life-cycle and technical reviews. The use of MBSE can reduce the schedule impact usually experienced for review preparation, as in many cases the review products can be auto-generated directly from the system model. These approaches are useful to systems engineers, project managers, review board members, and other key project stakeholders.