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Results for “Lifetime prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variation in Predicted Orbital Lifetime Due to Launch Year

We present trends in predicted orbital lifetimes of CubeSats based not only on orbital parameters, but also launch year and the Area-to-Mass (AtM) ratio of the CubeSat. Determining the orbital lifetime variation of CubeSats in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is an important aspect of mission planning because of two competing factors: (1) the maximum orbital lifetime for orbital debris mitigation requirements, and (2) the minimum orbit duration necessary to accomplish the spacecraft mission requirements. The orbital lifetime is a function of orbital parameters, the AtM ratio of the CubeSat, and date of orbit insertion. Solar flux varies with time, peaking and declining across the 11-year solar cycle and affecting the amount of atmospheric drag on the CubeSat. This results in large variations in orbital lifetime dependent on the mission's launch date. We calculated the variation of orbital lifetime for multiple commonly used 1U to 6U CubeSat mission types across the two upcoming solar cycles. For any given AtM ratio and altitude combination in this analysis, the predicted orbital lifetime varies up to a factor of five due to orbit insertion occurring in a different year. Some examples of orbital lifetime spreads are 5 months to 2 years, and 1.5 to 7.5 years. While orbital lifetimes correlate to the solar cycle, the phasing of the maximum values varies based on a given AtM ratio and altitude combination. Different combinations of these two factors will result in the maximum predicted orbital lifetime occurring at different launch years throughout the solar cycle. Therefore, there is not a specific year within a solar cycle which can be used to calculate the maximum predicted orbital lifetime for all CubeSats. Since CubeSats are typically flown as a rideshare payload on a launch vehicle, mission planners must account for launch date variation in their orbital lifetime predictions. We recommend calculating orbital lifetime for a range of dates to allow for risk planning due to launch date slips, and other mission planning best practices.

CubeSat↗
NASA NTRS1985

Viscoelastic behavior and lifetime (durability) predictions

A method for lifetime or durability predictions for laminated fiber reinforced plastics is given. The procedure is similar to but not the same as the well known time-temperature-superposition principle for polymers. The method is better described as an analytical adaptation of time-stress-super-position methods. The analytical constitutive modeling is based upon a nonlinear viscoelastic constitutive model developed by Schapery. Time dependent failure models are discussed and are related to the constitutive models. Finally, results of an incremental lamination analysis using the constitutive and failure model are compared to experimental results. Favorable results between theory and predictions are presented using data from creep tests of about two months duration.

Brinson, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A review of fracture mechanics life technology

Current lifetime prediction technology for structural components subjected to cyclic loads was reviewed. The central objectives of the project were to report the current state of and recommend future development of fracture mechanics-based analytical tools for modeling and forecasting subcritical fatigue crack growth in structures. Of special interest to NASA was the ability to apply these tools to practical engineering problems and the developmental steps necessary to bring vital technologies to this stage. A survey of published literature and numerous discussions with experts in the field of fracture mechanics life technology were conducted. One of the key points made is that fracture mechanics analyses of crack growth often involve consideration of fatigue and fracture under extreme conditions. Therefore, inaccuracies in predicting component lifetime will be dominated by inaccuracies in environment and fatigue crack growth relations, stress intensity factor solutions, and methods used to model given loads and stresses. Suggestions made for reducing these inaccuracies include: development of improved models of subcritical crack growth, research efforts aimed at better characterizing residual and assembly stresses that can be introduced during fabrication, and more widespread and uniform use of the best existing methods.

Thomas, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A review of fracture mechanics life technology

Lifetime prediction technology for structural components subjected to cyclic loads is examined. The central objectives of the project are: (1) to report the current state of the art, and (2) recommend future development of fracture mechanics-based analytical tools for modeling subcritical fatigue crack growth in structures. Of special interest is the ability to apply these tools to practical engineering problems and the developmental steps necessary to bring vital technologies to this stage. The authors conducted a survey of published literature and numerous discussions with experts in the field of fracture mechanics life technology. One of the key points made is that fracture mechanics analyses of crack growth often involve consideration of fatigue and fracture under extreme conditions. Therefore, inaccuracies in predicting component lifetime will be dominated by inaccuracies in environment and fatigue crack growth relations, stress intensity factor solutions, and methods used to model given loads and stresses. Suggestions made for reducing these inaccuracies include development of improved models of subcritical crack growth, research efforts aimed at better characterizing residual and assembly stresses that can be introduced during fabrication, and more widespread and uniform use of the best existing methods.

Besuner, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Preliminary study: Moisture-polymer interaction. Stuby objectives

The problems associated with mathematically modeling water-module interaction phenomena, including sorption and desorption, diffusion, and permeation are discussed. With reliable analytical models, an extensive materials data base, and solar radiation surface meteorological observations (SOLMET) weather data, predicting module lifetimes in realistic environments can become a practical reality. The status of the present techniques of simulating the various transport mechanisms was reported. The Dent model (a modified Brunauer-Emmet-Teller) approach represented polyvinyl butyral (PVB) sorption data. A 100-layer material model and Fick's diffusion model gave diffusivity values exhibiting adequate agreement with those measured for PVB. Diffusivity of PVB is concentration dependent, decreasing as the water content in PVB increases. The temperature dependence of diffusion in PVB is well modeled by the Arrhenius rate equation. Equilibrium conductivity and leakage current data are well represented by Hearle's model for bulk ionic conductivity. A nodal network analysis using the Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA) Thermal Analyzer gave reasonable correlation with measurable data. It is concluded that realistic lifetime predictions seem to be feasible.

Wen, L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Damage modeling of power tower receiver tubes using the SRLIFE tool

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) molten-salt central receivers are subject to high, transient incident flux during daily operation. The resulting creep-fatigue damage impacts the receiver’s reliability and restricts the permissible incident flux distribution for a given receiver. This paper aims to reduce CSP plants’ levelized cost of electricity by developing a methodology to predict lifetime and identifies the primary damage mechanism (creep vs fatigue) for any given fluid temperature and temperature gradient. Results are presented in the form of a damage map that serves as a valuable operation guide and design tool. Damage maps can be used to reduce maintenance costs by improving reliability and reduce receiver capital costs by better utilizing the receiver area. FEA simulation and damage modeling of tubes subject to asymmetrical flux conditions is performed in the open-source receiver design tool srlife. Parametric studies are performed over a range of inner tube temperatures and thermal gradients for A230, 316H, 740H, A282, A617, and 800H high temperature alloys. Damage maps are presented for each alloy. A parametric, FEA-based methodology is presented for comparison of fatigue-creep ratios and prediction of tube lifetime based on the critical thermal operating conditions. Fatigue is found to be negligible compared to creep for almost every case. Here, this finding suggests that fatigue effects associated with cloud events are insignificant compared to creep at these high temperature operating conditions. Additionally, lifetime predictions identify thermal conditions where small changes in operating conditions can result in large changes in predicted lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An accelerated framework for predicting creep rupture lifetimes in engineering alloys

Confidently predicting high-temperature deformation, including creep and creep rupture, is paramount for the design and commercialization of candidate materials for advanced nuclear energy systems. To accelerate creep quantification, we introduce a framework that enables rapid, cost-effective, and reliable prediction of creep rupture lifetimes, minimizing reliance on time-intensive bulk creep testing. Unlike conventional creep analysis, which requires extensive time and resources, our method leverages a maximum of four short-term bulk creep tests as training data for prediction. This framework combines high-throughput nanoindentation up to 700 °C with these targeted bulk tests to inform our creep rupture model in order to predict rupture lifetimes. The strong agreement between our predictions and conventional experimental data demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach for accelerated creep analysis and lifetime prediction of structural components in high-temperature applications. Our multi-pronged approach motivates further integration of computational tools and advanced instrumentation to establish a universal framework for understanding high-temperature material responses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Battery Life Prediction Using Reduced-Order Physics Models and Machine Learning (CRADA Final Report)

Phase 1 (Original CRADA, plus no-cost extension modifications #1-3, 6/1/2017 to 3/13/2021): The Australian Department of Defence (AUDoD) is performing accelerated aging tests of Li-ion batteries to benchmark their reliability and degradation characteristics. Using its previously developed battery lifetime predictive model framework, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will develop analytical models based the AUDoD data to predict lifetime of the multiple Li-ion battery chemistries under real-world use scenarios of interest to AUDoD. The NLR model is based on physical degradation mechanisms encountered by Li-ion batteries and has been previously validated. Phase 2 (CRADA modification #4, plus no-cost extension modification #5, 2/22/2021 to 3/30/2025): Train and support Australian Department of Defence personnel to use NLR software for model-based estimation of Li-ion battery lifetime using accelerated battery aging data collected by the Australian Department of Defence. Under separate DOE funding from 2019 to 2021, NLR enhanced its battery life-prediction software using machine learning algorithms to automate portions of the model-fitting process, requiring significantly less labor and expert judgment and also adding uncertainty quantification, increasing statistical rigor. Under Phase 2, NLR will customize NLR Software and provide it to AuDoD. NLR will enhance its NLR Model to capture aging modes of AuDoD's multi-cell modules, including cell-balancing effects. NLR will develop example single-cell and multi-cell models based on one AuDoD battery aging dataset. NLR will train AuDoD personnel on NLR Software. By the conclusion of the project, NLR will have provided AuDoD the training materials, a user manual and software needed to perform their own analysis of additional and/or future battery aging datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Design of the solid cryogen dewar for the Near-Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer

A multipurpose, second-generation HST instrument for imaging and spectroscopy in the 1 to 2.5 microns wavelength region is being developed. The Near-Infrared Camera Multi-Object Spectrometer (NICMOS) is unique since it is the only HST instrument operating in the NIR and cryogenically cooled. The NICMOS detector arrays are cooled to 58 K by a solid-nitrogen (SN2) dewar with a predicted lifetime of nearly five years. To obtain this long lifetime, a hybrid cooling approach using thermoelectric coolers (TECs) is employed to reduce the parasitic heat load on the SN2. The design features used to promote long life, the predicted lifetime improvements provided by the TECs, and the performance degradation in the event of TEC failure(s) are discussed.

Oonk, Rodney L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Accelerated Test Method for Corrosion Protective Coatings Project

This project seeks to develop a new accelerated corrosion test method that predicts the long-term corrosion protection performance of spaceport structure coatings as accurately and reliably as current long-term atmospheric exposure tests. This new accelerated test method will shorten the time needed to evaluate the corrosion protection performance of coatings for NASA's critical ground support structures. Lifetime prediction for spaceport structure coatings has a 5-year qualification cycle using atmospheric exposure. Current accelerated corrosion tests often provide false positives and negatives for coating performance, do not correlate to atmospheric corrosion exposure results, and do not correlate with atmospheric exposure timescales for lifetime prediction.

Technology Portfolio System↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Efficacy of Repeat Voltage Holds for Conditioning and Calendar Life Testing of Graphite and Silicon Cells

Voltage-hold (V-hold) protocols have shown promise toward calendar lifetime analysis of cells with graphite (Gr) and silicon (Si) anodes. In this work, repeat V-holds are performed on Gr and Si cells paired with lithium iron phosphate cathodes to delineate their beneficial role in formation and conditioning. We find that V-hold at the top of charge supplements constant current cycling in conditioning the cell to higher capacities for both Gr and Si cells after the first V-hold. A reduced order model provides the irreversible capacity proportions of each V-hold. With each repeat V-hold, parasitic loss of lithium to the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) decreases on both Gr and Si cells. Gr cells show the square-root-of-time capacity loss behavior within 200 h of V-hold, indicative of its fast relaxation and low impact of reference performance test cycles on the SEI growth. Lifetime estimates from repeat V-holds on Gr can reach years. Si exhibits longer transition times from kinetic to diffusion-limited SEI growth, evidenced by the 400 h and 200 h holds showing square-root-of-time and linear behavior, respectively. Lifetime predictions from repeat V-holds on Si only reach 1–2 months, highlighting its limitations. Recommended duration of V-holds for Si cells should be ≥400 h.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗