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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

Cotton, William↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Sources and Geospace Consequences of Interplanetary Magnetic Clouds Observed During Solar Cycle 23

We present results of a statistical investigation of 99 magnetic clouds (MCs) observed during 1995-2005. The MC-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are faster and wider on the average and originate within +/-30deg from the solar disk center. The solar sources of MCs also followed the butterfly diagram. The correlation between the magnetic field strength and speed of MCs was found to be valid over a much wider range of speeds. The number of south-north (SN) MCs was dominant and decreased with solar cycle, while the number of north-south (NS) MCs increased confirming the odd-cycle behavior. Two-thirds of MCs were geoeffective; the Dst index was highly correlated with speed and magnetic field in MCs as well as their product. Many (55%) fully northward (FN) MCs were geoeffective solely due to their sheaths. The non-geoeffective MCs were slower (average speed approx. 382 km/s), had a weaker southward magnetic field (average approx. -5.2nT), and occurred mostly during the rise phase of the solar activity cycle.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Comparisons of Characteristics of Magnetic Clouds and Cloud-Like Structures During 1995-2012

Using eighteen years (1995 - 2012) of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data (observed by the Wind spacecraft), solar activity (e.g. sunspot number: SSN), and the geomagnetic activity index (Dst), we have identified 168 magnetic clouds (MCs) and 197 magnetic cloud - like structures (MCLs), and we have made relevant comparisons. The following features are found during seven different periods (TP: Total period during 1995 - 2012, P1 and P2: first and second half period during 1995 - 2003 and 2004 - 2012, Q1 and Q2: quiet periods during 1995 - 1997 and 2007 - 2009, A1 and A2: active periods during 1998 - 2006 and 2010 - 2012). (1) During the total period the yearly occurrence frequency is 9.3 for MCs and 10.9 for MCLs. (2) In the quiet periods Q1 > Q1 and Q2 > Q2, but in the active periods A1 < A1 and A2 < A2. (3) The minimum Bz (Bzmin) inside of a MC is well correlated with the intensity of geomagnetic activity, Dstmin (minimum Dst found within a storm event) for MCs (with a Pearson correlation coefficient, c.c. = 0.75, and the fitting function is Dstmin = 0.90+7.78Bzmin), but Bzmin for MCLs is not well correlated with the Dst index (c.c. = 0.56, and the fitting function is Dstmin = -9.40+ 4.58 Bzmin). (4) MCs play a major role in producing geomagnetic storms: the absolute value of the average Dstmin ( MC = -70 nT) for MCs associated geomagnetic storms is two times stronger than that for MCLs ( MCL = -35 nT), due to the difference in the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) strength. (5) The SSN is not correlated with MCs ( TP, c.c. = 0.27), but is well associated with MCLs ( TP, c.c. = 0.85). Note that the c.c. for SSN vs. P2 is higher than that for SSN vs. P2. (6) Averages of IMF, solar wind speed, and density inside of the MCs are higher than those inside of the MCLs. (7) The average of MC duration (approx. = 18.82 hours) is approx. = 20 % longer than the average of MCL duration (approx. = 15.69 hours). (8) There are more MCs than MCLs in the quiet solar period, and more MCLs than MCs in the active solar period, probably due to the interaction between a MC and another significant interplanetary disturbance (including another MC) which could obviously change the character of a MC, but we speculate that some MCLs are no doubt due to other factors such as complex birth conditions at the Sun.

CME↗
NASA NTRS2015

Wind Magnetic Clouds for 2010-2012: Model Parameter Fittings, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Earlier Periods

We fitted the parameters of magnetic clouds (MCs) as identified in the Wind spacecraft data from early 2010 to the end of 2012 using the model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga (J. Geophys. Res. 95, 1195, 1990). The interval contains 48 MCs and 39 magnetic cloud-like (MCL) events. This work is a continuation of MC model fittings of the earlier Wind sets, including those in a recent publication, which covers 2007 to 2009. This period (2010 - 2012) mainly covers the maximum portion of Solar Cycle 24. Between the previous and current interval, we document 5.7 years of MCs observations. For this interval, the occurrence frequency of MCs markedly increased in the last third of the time. In addition, over approximately the last six years, the MC type (i.e. the profile of the magnetic-field direction within an MC, such as North-to-South, South-to-North, all South) dramatically evolved to mainly North-to-South types when compared to earlier years. Furthermore, this evolution of MC type is consistent with global solar magnetic-field changes predicted by Bothmer and Rust (Coronal Mass Ejections, 139, 1997). Model fit parameters for the MCs are listed for 2010 - 2012. For the 5.7 year interval, the observed MCs are found to be slower, weaker in estimated axial magnetic-field intensity, and shorter in duration than those of the earlier 12.3 years, yielding much lower axial magnetic-field fluxes. For about the first half of this 5.7 year period, i.e. up to the end of 2009, there were very few associated MC-driven shock waves (distinctly fewer than the long-term average of about 50 % of MCs). But since 2010, such driven shocks have increased markedly, reflecting similar statistics as the long-term averages. We estimate that 56 % of the total observed MCs have upstream shocks when the full interval of 1995 - 2012 is considered. However, only 28 % of the total number of MCLs have driven shocks over the same period. Some interplanetary shocks during the 2010 - 2012 interval are seen to apparently occur without an obvious MC-driver, probably indicating an encounter with a distant flank of a MC-driven shock. Some of these may be driven by a different kind of structure, however.

Magnetic clouds↗
DOE OSTI2026

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Field-Line Lengths in Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Inferred from Energetic Electron Events

About one quarter of the observed interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are characterized by enhanced magnetic fields that smoothly rotate in direction over timescales of about 10-50 hr. These ICMEs have the appearance of magnetic flux ropes and are known as "magnetic clouds" (MCs). The total lengths of MC field lines can be determined using solar energetic particles of known speeds when the solar release times and the I AU onset times of the particles are known. A recent examination of about 30 near-relativistic (NR) electron events in and near 8 MCs showed no obvious indication that the field-line lengths were longest near the MC boundaries and shortest at the MC axes or outside the MCs, contrary to the expectations for a flux rope. Here we use the impulsive beamed NR electron events observed with the Electron Proton and Alpha Monitor instrument on the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and type III radio bursts observed on the Wind spacecraft to determine the field-line lengths inside ICMEs included in the catalog of Richardson & Cane. In particular, we extend this technique to ICMEs that are not MCs and compare the field-line lengths inside MCs and non-MC ICMEs with those in the ambient solar wind outside the ICMEs. No significant differences of field-line lengths are found among MCs, ICMEs, and the ambient solar wind. The estimated number of ICME field-line turns is generally smaller than those deduced for flux-rope model fits to MCs. We also find cases in which the electron injections occur in solar active regions CARs) distant from the source ARs of the ICMEs, supporting CME models that require extensive coronal magnetic reconnection with surrounding fields. The field-line lengths are found to be statistically longer for the NR electron events classified as ramps and interpreted as shock injections somewhat delayed from the type III bursts. The path lengths of the remaining spike and pulse electron events are compared with model calculations of solar wind field-line lengths resulting from turbulence and found to be in good agreement.

Kahler, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Relation between Coronal Holes and Coronal Mass Ejections during the Rise, Maximum, and Declining Phases of Solar Cycle 23

We study the interaction between coronal holes (CHs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using a resultant force exerted by all the coronal holes present on the disk and is defined as the coronal hole influence parameter (CHIP). The CHIP magnitude for each CH depends on the CH area, the distance between the CH centroid and the eruption region, and the average magnetic field within the CH at the photospheric level. The CHIP direction for each CH points from the CH centroid to the eruption region. We focus on Solar Cycle 23 CMEs originating from the disk center of the Sun (central meridian distance ≤15deg) and resulting in magnetic clouds (MCs) and non-MCs in the solar wind. The CHIP is found to be the smallest during the rise phase for MCs and non-MCs. The maximum phase has the largest CHIP value (2.9 G) for non-MCs. The CHIP is the largest (5.8 G) for driverless (DL) shocks, which are shocks at 1 AU with no discernible MC or non-MC. These results suggest that the behavior of non-MCs is similar to that of the DL shocks and different from that of MCs. In other words, the CHs may deflect the CMEs away from the Sun-Earth line and force them to behave like limb CMEs with DL shocks. This finding supports the idea that all CMEs may be flux ropes if viewed from an appropriate vantage point.

CMEs↗
NASA NTRS1993

Session on modeling of radiative transfer processes

The session on modeling of radiative transfer processes is reviewed. Six critical issues surfaced in the discussion concerning scale-interactive radiative processes relevent to the mesoscale convective systems (MCS's). These issues are the need to expand basic knowledge of how MCS's influence climate through extensive cloud shields and increased humidity in the upper troposphere; to improve radiation parameterizations used in mesoscale and General Circulation Model (GCM) models; to improve our basic understanding of the influence of radiation on MCS dynamics due to diabatic heating, production of condensate, and vertical and horizontal heat fluxes; to quantify our understanding of radiative impacts of MCS's on the surface and free atmosphere energy budgets; to quantify and identify radiative and microphysical processes important in the evolution of MCS's; and to improve the capability to remotely sense MCS radiative properties from space and ground-based systems.

Flatau, Piotr↗
NASA NTRS2011

Magnetic Clouds at/near the 2007 - 2009 Solar Minimum: Frequency of Occurrence and Some Unusual Properties

Magnetic clouds (MCs) have been identified for the period 2007 2009 (at/near the recent solar minimum) from Wind data, then confirmed through MC parameter fitting using a force-free model. A dramatic increase in the frequency of occurrence of these events took place from the two early years of 2007 (with five MCs) and 2008 (one MC) compared to 2009 (12 MCs). This pattern approximately mirrors the occurrence-frequency profile that was observed over a three-year interval 12 years earlier, with eight events in 1995, four in 1996, and 17 in 1997, but decreased overall by a factor of 0.62 in number. However, the average estimated axial field strength taken over all of the 18 events of 2007 - 2009 (called the "recent period" here) was only 11.0 nT, whereas |BO| for the 29 events of 1995 - 1997 (called the "earlier period" ) was 16.5 nT. This 33% average drop in |BO| is more or less consistent with the decreased three-year average interplanetary magnetic field intensity between these two periods, which shows a 23% drop. In the earlier period, the MCs were clearly of mixed types but predominantly of the South-to-North type, whereas those in the recent period are almost exclusively the North-to-South type; this change is consistent with global solar field changes predicted by Bothmer and Rust (Geophys. Monogr. Ser. 99, 139, 1997). As we have argued in earlier work (Lepping and Wu, J. Geophys. Res. 112, A10103, 2007), this change should make it possible to carry out (accurate short-term) magnetic storm forecasting by predicting the latter part of an MC from the earlier part, using a good MC parameter-fitting model with real-time data from a spacecraft at L1, for example. The recent set s average duration is 15.2 hours, which is a 27% decrease compared to that of the earlier set, which had an average duration of 20.9 hours. In fact, all physical aspects of the recent MC set are shown to drop with respect to the earlier set; e.g., as well as the average internal magnetic field drop, the recent set had a somewhat low average speed of 379 km/s (5% drop), and the average diameter had a 24% drop. Hence, compared to the earlier set, the recent set consists of events that are smaller, slightly slower, and weaker in every respect (and fewer in number), but in a relative sense the two three-year sets have similar frequency-of-occurrence profiles. It is also interesting that the two sets have almost the same average axial inclinations, i.e., axial latitude approx. = 31deg (in GSE). These MC characteristics are compared to relevant solar features and their changes. A preliminary assessment of the statistics on possible shocks and pressure pulses upstream of these recent MCs yields the following: About 28% of the MCs, at most, had shocks, and 33% had shocks and/or pressure pulses. These are low values, since typically the percentage of cases with shocks is about 50%, and the percentage with shocks and/or pressure pulses is usually about 75%.

Lepping. R. P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Wet Season Precipitation in the Central Amazon Using a Mesoscale Convective System Tracking Algorithm

To comprehensively characterize convective precipitation in the central Amazon region, we utilize the Python FLEXible object TRacKeR (PyFLEXTRKR) to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) observed through satellite measurements and simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting resolution. This study spans a 2-month period during the wet seasons of 2014 and 2015. We observe a strong correlation between the MCS track density and accumulated precipitation in the Amazon basin. Key factors contributing to precipitation, such as MCS properties (number, size, rainfall intensity, and movement), are thoroughly examined. Our analysis reveals that while the overall model produces fewer MCSs with smaller mean sizes compared to observations, it tends to overpredict total precipitation due to excessive rainfall intensity for heavy rainfall events (≥10 mm hr –1 ). These biases in simulated MCS properties could vary with the constraints on the convective background environment. Moreover, while the wet bias from heavy (convective) rainfall outweighs the dry bias in light (stratiform) rainfall, the latter can be crucial, particularly when MCS cloud cover is significantly underestimated. A case study for 1 April 2014 highlights the influence of environmental conditions on the MCS lifecycle and identifies an unrealistic model representation in both stratiform and convective precipitation features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Precipitation‐Buoyancy Relationships in the Life Cycle of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems

This study aims to establish process-level benchmarks linking Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) at various stages of their life cycle to their thermodynamic environment. The relationship between MCS precipitation and an empirical buoyancy measure (B 𝐿 ) is examined using collocated satellite-observed MCS tracks and reanalysis data. A positive relationship is identified between the frequency of tropical MCSs and that of high B 𝐿 conditions. The buoyancy measure, integrating instability and entrainment, helps elucidate thermodynamic characteristics throughout the MCS life cycle. Environments with high instability and moderate subsaturation are frequently linked to the initial stage, while environments with low instability and near saturation are frequently linked to the mature stage. Stable and highly subsaturated environments are more likely associated with the termination of the life cycle. These associations are qualitatively similar for oceanic and land MCSs. Overall, the MCS-environment relationships can serve as observational benchmarks with which to diagnose MCS-resolving models.

Tsai, Wei‐Ming [University of California, Los Ange↗
NASA NTRS1985

Deep convection in mesoscale convective systems

A study was undertaken to examine the evolution of radar echoes and lightning attending the convective storms in mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and the relationships between the spatial and temporal evolution of deep convection and the storm environment, precipitation, severe weather, and lightning. The total number of ground discharges ranges from 10,000 to 30,000 over the life cycle of the MCS with peak sustained rates (for up to 10 consecutive hours) in excess of 2000 per hour. The peak lightning activity occurs from 5 to 20 hours after the first storms and anywhere from 7 hours prior to 7 hours after the time of the maximum areal extent of the MCS for very similar synoptic environments. Thus, it appears that mesoscale and sub-synoptic scale mechanisms are responsible for these large temporal variation in lightning activity. In addition, we have found that the lightning rates in MCS's are not related to either the size or the duration of the MCS. Preliminary results suggest that the MCA's with embedded squall lines produce the greatest flash rates.

Goodman, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Structure of the Highly Sheared Tropical Storm Chantal During CAMEX-4

Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an MCS. The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large-scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Source record↗