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Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator

Optical nanofiber testbeds for benchmarking membrane-waveguide photonic integrated circuit platforms toward on-chip quantum inertial sensing

Recent advances in cold atom interferometry with optical and magnetic atom guides have set the stage for quantum inertial sensors capable of operating in dynamic environments. In this work, we present three key innovations—evanescent-field (EF) atom guides, optical nanofiber testbeds, and membrane-waveguide photonic integrated circuit (PIC) platforms—to advance EF-guided atom interferometry. First, we demonstrate EF atom guides on optical nanofiber testbeds, which serve as performance benchmarks for our membrane-waveguide PIC platforms. Second, we achieve low-power (⁠ ~ 5 mW) guiding of freely moving, laser-cooled 133 Cs atoms in two-color, traveling-wave EF optical dipole traps at the novel, heat-efficient magic wavelengths of 793 and 937 nm (i.e., “793/937-nm EF atom guides”). Concurrently, we design and fabricate membrane-waveguide PIC platforms for these EF atom guides; in our prior work, we showed that these structures safely accommodate 4–6 times the required optical trap power under vacuum and enable dense cold atom generation via magneto-optical trapping in the vicinity of the optical wavguide for efficient loading. Third, we verify preserved atomic coherence via microwave fields and EF-coupled Doppler-free Raman beams; to our knowledge, this is the first report of coherence fringes driven by co-propagating EF-coupled Raman beams with only 150 nW of total optical power. By providing a direct comparison between optical nanofiber testbeds and membrane-waveguide PIC platforms, our results lay critical groundwork for the on-chip realization of EF-guided atom interferometry and the development of fully integrated, compact, lightweight, and low-power quantum accelerometers and gyroscopes.

Orozco, Adrian [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-

The Radsetta Stone – Establishing a Common Environment Taxonomy Across Space Nuclear Technologies

Qualitative descriptions, such as “high temperature” or “long exposure” vary substantially according to the context and can obfuscate messaging. A quantitative taxonomy for describing space nuclear environments - encompassing fission, radioisotope, and natural - has been established to enable clear communication across technology applications. Zones have been defined to partition environments with an intent to achieve a useful level of granularity. These zones enable a more detailed assessment than the Technology Readiness Level and can also be used to identify gaps and overlaps spanning space nuclear technologies. This framework has been named the Radsetta Stone – a paronomasia of the Rosetta Stone. There are two directions in which the Radsetta Stone can be used. The user may be a technology developer or a technology customer. The developer would use the Radsetta Stone to communicate the current state of the technology they are developing. The maximum zone for each parameter would then be used to state the current limit of their technology. The customer could use the Radsetta Stone to communicate the environmental conditions of their system. Zones would be associated with different locations within the system. The Radsetta Stone is intended to enable clear communication regarding space nuclear technology. The following legend and tables show the levels of the Radsetta Stone. These levels show success criteria gates in a similar manner as Technology Readiness Levels.

taxonomy

Commercial and Industrial Energy Procurement in Nigeria: A Consumer's Guidebook

Across Africa, countries have incorporated a variety of new energy sources into their energy mix to account for increasing demand. In Nigeria, electricity consumption per capita has grown nearly 50% in the past 20 years. To address rising demand for energy in Nigeria, the country has passed several recent policies and regulations aimed at increasing energy generation across the country, improving the country's transmission infrastructure, and ensuring that electricity reliably reaches end users, including commercial and industrial (C&I) customers. This guidebook is designed for C&I customers in Nigeria to use in the consideration of procuring such onsite, captive energy systems to supplement their energy needs. Each section of this guidebook touches on a step of the procurement process and details the relevant stakeholders, processes, and data needed to make decisions during that step.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Solar Training and Education Partnership for Underserved Populations

Solar Landscape’s STEP-UP program provided high quality solar installation training in partnership with community-based organizations (CBOs) in various regions within the U.S. Solar Landscape leveraged internal subject matter experts (SME’s) industry guidance and regional training assessments to provide customized training designed to support the growing solar and broader energy sector. Upon completion of the program, the team assisted trainees and nonprofit partners with connections to Solar Landscape contractors as well as local and National residential solar installation companies to facilitate placement into careers and apprenticeships.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

U.S. ESCO Industry Report: Industry Size and Recent Market Trends, 2022- 2024

The latest edition of the U.S. Energy Service Company (ESCO) Industry Report by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) finds that the U.S. ESCO industry continues to show strong growth. The report draws from ESCO industry reported revenue data for the 2022-2024 period, detailing the current size and characteristics of the U.S. ESCO industry. Following 20 years of ESCO industry reports, the 2024 report explores significant revenue trends across market segments, geographic regions, ESCO size, financing structures, and business activities. New analysis in this report outlines customer priorities and non-energy benefit drivers of Energy Savings Performance Contract projects, adjusted revenue analysis detailing the impacts of inflation on industry growth, and project challenges by market segment.

Chelminski, Kathryn

Challenges in Continuous In-Field Critical Current Testing of High-Temperature Superconducting Tapes: Thermal and Mechanical Perspectives

High-temperature superconductors (HTS) are essential for ultra-high-field applications requiring exceptional current-carrying capacity under extreme conditions. However, systematic characterization of critical current in long-length conductors remains challenging due to complex thermal, electromag netic, and mechanical interactions during continuous testing. This study reports the development of a continuous in-field magnetization testing system for position-dependent critical current measurement in HTS tapes at 20 K under 7.5 T fields applied normal to the tape plane, enabling identification of performance-limiting regions that could compromise magnet stability. Here, the system addresses two fundamental challenges inherent to cryogenic reel to-reel testing. First, thermal management requires continuous cooling of a moving conductor to 20 K, achieved through liquid nitrogen precooling combined with a 100 W@20 K Gifford McMahon cryocooler. Second, screening currents in high fields generate Lorentz forces that induce twisting, bowing, and potential delamination. To mitigate these risks, we propose mechanical reinforcement and active current density suppression strategies. Numerical simulations using the stream function formulation reveal four primary failure modes: frictional heating at guide interfaces, unstable equilibria causing deformation, transverse current-induced stresses at guide transitions, and unsupported forces in vertical spans. Our mitigation strategies include PTFE coated guides to minimize friction, spring-loaded stabilization mechanisms to maintain tape alignment, controlled pre-heating using the liquid nitrogen thermal jacket to suppress critical current at stress points, and optimized guide positioning to minimize force accumulation. The experimental system is nearing completion, with testing planned to commence within two months. Preliminary validation at 65 K under 0.5 T demonstrates strong correlation between simulation-predicted mechanical instabilities and observed critical current variations during conductor tran sitions through the measurement region. These findings establish a robust foundation for quality assurance protocols essential to next-generation superconducting magnet applications.

Chen, Siwei [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (

Design and Modeling of the Charge Readout of a SiMOS Quantum Dot with a Single Electron Transistor and CryoCMOS

Single electron spin qubits trapped in SiMOS quantum dots are a promising technology for scaling to thousand- or million-qubit systems due to their compatibility with mature CMOS manufacturing processes. A readout system that combines a single electron transistor with a custom cryogenic CMOS amplification and digitization chain offers key advantages by avoiding the use of bulky RF components or room-temperature interconnects. We present design techniques and simulation results for an optimized qubit-SET cryoCMOS interface, culminating in the design of the QNDR1 ASIC, the first cryogenic readout ASIC designed under the Quandarum project, which targets the development of a many-channel spin qubit based detector for use in high energy physics.

Quinn, Adam [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000605056371)

Pressure Safety Training (Rev. 8)

This is the workbook for the Pressure Safety Training Course. It is intended as a reference manual and guide for all work with pressurized liquids or gases. This workbook contains basic references to make work with pressure safer. It is intended to supplement classroom instruction, rather than serve as a definitive text on pressure. Earlier versions of the manual were intended specifically for training at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This revision is a generic version intended for training at all DOE facilities. The information in the Standards chapter is from the LLNL Health and Safety Manual. It is included here as a convenient reference and guide for developing similar standards at your own facility.

42 ENGINEERING

Pinned in Microgravity: How Colloidal Suspensions Inhibit Droplet Motion

Understanding the fundamental behavior of colloidal fluids in microgravity is critical for advancing material science, manufacturing, and biological processes. In this study we investigate the dynamics of a droplet containing colloidal suspension when ejected in short term microgravity. These conditions are generated using a 2.2 second drop tower. A custom droplet generator was designed to produce consistent size-controlled droplets containing passive colloidal particles. The particles are suspended in water and subsequently ejected out of a hydrophobic wedge under microgravity conditions, where the droplet ejection time can be predicted [Torres & Weislogel, 2021]. The ejection times will be compared with de-ionized water ejected from the same system to investigate the effects of change in density and surface tension caused by the colloids. Successful passive colloidal ejection will lay the foundation for active colloid research in the future.

colloids

The Castor 120 (TM) Motor: Development and Qualification Testing Results

This paper discusses Thiokol Corporation's static test results for the development and qualification program of the Castor 120(TM) motor. The demonstration program began with a 25,000-pound motor to demonstrate the new technologies and processes that would be used on the larger Castor 120(TM) motor. The Castor 120(TM) motor was designed to be applicable as a first stage, second stage, or strap-on motor. Static test results from the Castor 25 and two Castor 120(TM) motors are discussed in this paper. The results verified the feasibility of tailoring the propellant grain configuration and nozzle throat diameter to meet various customer requirements. The first and second motors were conditioned successfully at ambient temperature and 28 F, respectively, to demonstrate that the design could handle a wide range of environmental launch conditions. Furthermore, the second Castor 120(TM) motor demonstrated a systems tunnel and forward skirt extension to verify flight-ready stage hardware. It is anticipated that the first flight motor will be ready by the fall of 1994.

Jack G Hilden

Standards Roadmapping for Mission Assurance in Commercial Spaceflight

This paper explores the application of established roadmapping approaches in standards planning and roadmap development to support mission assurance objectives. Mission assurance requires proactive planning across multiple domains including technical, schedule, cost, organizational, and policy. The intersection of these domains happens at the enterprise level, and enterprise systems engineering processes can systematically guide mission assurance activities, including development of standards roadmaps. Standards planning and development is a critical contributor to an effective mission assurance strategy, although standards are often developed and adopted reactively. Technology and standards planning is a key Enterprise Process Management activity, as identified by the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge, and technology and standards roadmaps are strategic tools used to enable that process. Technology roadmapping has proven effective in guiding enterprise architecture and concept design, and standards planning supports enterprise requirements definition and management. However, there are limited methodologies to guide such standards planning activities. The application of technology roadmapping principles to standards planning formalizes the process and establishes a repeatable framework for standards development and integration. The framework development described in this paper fills a methodological gap by adapting proven roadmapping techniques to standards planning. Through a comparison of roadmapping methodologies and a case study analysis, this approach outlines a systematic process for anticipating and planning standards needs. In the case of developing a standards integration roadmap for NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA), technology roadmapping principles were adapted to develop a roadmap framework to allow NASA and OSMA to define an agency-wide standards integration plan for commercial and industry safety and mission assurance standards. The outcome highlights key adaptations required for roadmapping in a standards context and describes the process steps to formalize a standards planning activity. The roadmapping framework adapted for standards development and integration enables more strategic, forward-looking standards planning and allows for better alignment between evolving capabilities and mission assurance requirements. Beyond its application to mission assurance, this methodology can be transferred to other domains requiring standards development, providing a systematic approach that integrates systems engineering principles into policy strategy and decision-making processes.

Enterprise Systems Engineering

Operando microscopy for neuromorphic hardware

Microscopy techniques can uncover the physical properties and dynamic behaviours of materials, driving the discovery of emergent phenomena and guiding the design of next-generation computing hardware. As artificial intelligence becomes pervasive, the demand for high-performance materials to support sustainable information technologies is growing. Here, this Review highlights state-of-the-art imaging from electron and X-ray to optical techniques to probe the dynamics of neuromorphic materials, including operando characterization of devices. We examine design principles for neuromorphic materials, along with obstacles that hinder their development. Emphasis is placed on spatially and temporally resolved approaches that capture state changes including phase transitions, ferroic switching and spin-wave propagation that emulate biological components such as neurons, synapses and their connectivity. We discuss challenges in operando characterization and the integration of artificial intelligence-driven analysis for feedback-guided material discovery. Finally, we outline opportunities for real-time imaging of neuromorphic systems, paving the way towards adaptive, brain-inspired hardware.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

In-Situ Scanning Electron Microscope Experiments for Microscale Mechanical Testing and Validated Modeling of Fiber Reinforced Thermoplastics

A novel, in-situ, scanning electron microscope (SEM) mechanical testing capability for materials at the microscale which provides experimental validation to a machine learning (ML) toolset for full-field validation of physics-based micromechanics models is being developed by researchers at NASA Glenn Research Center. These are enabling technologies for the integration of multiscale digital twins for materials into system level models which will result in the improved performance, material discovery, reduced production cost and time, rapid characterization, and prognostic structural health monitoring (SHM) for materials and structures for extreme environments in support of NASA space exploration missions. In order to bridge the material structure-to-system gap for digital twins, physics-based models must be experimentally validated at multiple length scales. Seminal microscale experiments, conducted at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), were limited to transverse compression of single-layer, unidirectional thermoset polymer matrix composite (PMC) micropillar specimens [1]. The early phases of the current project followed those initial results and setup to reproduce the compression testing of PMC material on the custom-built piezoelectric actuated micromechanical testing rig built by MicroTesting Solutions LLC. In this work, samples of thermoplastic PMC material were first machined into 3 mm cubes, and then further machining and final milling was done using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB). The initial experiment was done on a pillar roughly 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall. Additional pillars were milled with final sizes ranging from 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall to 40 µm x 40 µm x 65 µm tall. A speckle pattern for in-situ full-field measurements using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was applied with platinum, which was coated on the surface, and then the FIB was used to mill away some of the coating to produce an irregular pattern of Pt on the pillar surface. The samples were loaded into the custom testing rig and placed into the SEM and loaded under compression until failure. Images were collected in the SEM during testing. Post-processing of the images was conducted using DIC to obtain full-field displacement and strain measurements elucidating the role of the matrix as well as fiber-fiber interaction at the microscale within the composite subjected to compression loading well into the non-linear regime of the material. Moreover, the evolution of fiber-matrix debonding and matrix cracking is observed in-situ at the microscale. This data, along with images segmented with a newly developed ML toolset [2], was used to create and validate physics-based micromechanics models. An image of the failed micropillar is shown in Figure 1. The techniques developed in the initial compression experiment was tailored to the validation needs of the models and expanded to include different sized samples as well as possibly tension and fatigue.

Laura Wilson

The Growth of Zeolites A, X and Mordenite in Space

Zeolites are a class of crystalline aluminosilicate materials that form the backbone of the chemical process industry worldwide. They are used primarily as adsorbents and catalysts and support to a significant extent the positive balance of trade realized by the chemical industry in the United States (around $19 billion in 1991). The magnitude of their efforts can be appreciated when one realizes that since their introduction as 'cracking catalysts' in the early 1960's, they have saved the equivalent of 60 percent of the total oil production from Alaska's North Slope. Thus the performance of zeolite catalysts can have a profound effect on the U.S. economy. It is estimated that a 1 percent increase in yield of the gasoline fraction per barrel of oil would represent a savings of 22 million barrels of crude oil per year, representing a reduction of $400 million in the United States' balance of payments. Thus any activity that results in improvement in zeolite catalyst performance is of significant scientific and industrial interest. In addition, due to their 'stability,' uniformity, and, within limits, their 'engineerable' structures, zeolites are being tested as potential adsorbents to purify gases and liquids at the parts-per-billion levels needed in today's electronic, biomedical, and biotechnology industries and for the environment. Other exotic applications, such as host materials for quantum-confined semiconductor atomic arrays, are also being investigated. Because of the importance of this class of material, extensive efforts have been made to characterize their structures and to understand their nucleation and growth mechanisms, so as to be able to custom-make zeolites for a desired application. To date, both the nucleation mechanics and chemistry (such as what are the 'key' nutrients) are, as yet, still unknown for many, if not all, systems. The problem is compounded because there is usually a 'gel' phase present that is assumed to control the degree of supersaturation, and this gel undergoes a continuous 'polymerization' type reaction during nucleation and growth. Generally, for structure characterization and diffusion studies, which are useful in evaluating zeolites for improving yield in petroleum refining as well as for many of the proposed new applications (e.g., catalytic membranes, molecular electronics, chemical sensors) large zeolites (greater than 100 to 1000 times normal size) with minimum lattice defects are desired. Presently, the lack of understanding of zeolite nucleation and growth precludes the custom design of zeolites for these or other uses. It was hypothesized that the microgravity levels achieved in an orbiting spacecraft could help to isolate the possible effects of natural convection (which affects defect formation) and minimize sedimentation, which occurs since zeolites are twice as dense as the solution from which they are formed. This was expected to promote larger crystals by allowing growing crystals a longer residence time in a high-concentration nutrient field. Thus it was hypothesized that the microgravity environment of Earth orbit would allow the growth of large, more defect-free zeolite crystals in high yield.

A Sacco, Jr

CFD Modeling of Bi-Directional PMD inside Cryogenic Propellant Tanks Onboard Parabolic Flights

Future cryogenic propulsion systems will require efficient methods with which to transfer cryogenic propellants from a depot storage tank to a customer receiver tank to minimize cost and maximize reusability. The Reduced Gravity Cryogenic Transfer project is currently developing advanced cryogenic fluid management technology and developing and validating new numerical models for three phases of transfer: line chilldown, tank chilldown, and tank fill. Additionally, multiple liquid nitrogen (LN 2 ) parabolic flight transfer rigs are being designed by universities and NASA to investigate the gravitational sensitivities that exist in these three technologies. In order to maximize the collection of low-g data during flights, it is required to extract as much (LN 2 as possible from the supply tank, despite variable gravity levels. The purpose of this paper is to present computational fluid dynamics (CFD) volume of fluid simulations of (LN 2 behavior in the supply tank onboard parabolic flights to validate the optimal design of a bi-directional propellant management device (PMD) using the commercial software FLOW-3D. A parametric study is conducted on the effects of gravity level, fill level, pore size, open area, thickness, and type of baffle on PMD performance. Based on results, the PMD as designed exceeds the targeted expulsion efficiency.

Jason Hartwig