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At least 37 records · Page 2

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and International Space Station (ISS) Coordination for CubeSat Deployments to Minimize Collision Risk

The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) is a joint U.S. and Japan mission to observe global precipitation, extending the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), which was launched by H-IIA from Tanegashima in Japan on February 28TH, 2014 directly into its 407km operational orbit. The International Space Station (ISS) is an international human research facility operated jointly by Russia and the USA from NASA's Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston Texas. Mission priorities lowered the operating altitude of ISS from 415km to 400km in early 2105, effectively placing both vehicles into the same orbital regime. The ISS has begun a program of deployments of cost effective CubeSats from the ISS that allow testing and validation of new technologies. With a major new asset flying at the same effective altitude as the ISS, CubeSat deployments became a serious threat to GPM and therefore a significant indirect threat to the ISS. This paper describes the specific problem of collision threat to GPM and risk to ISS CubeSat deployment and the process that was implemented to keep both missions safe from collision and maximize their project goals.

Pawloski, James H.↗

Triton: Environmental Monitoring Technology Development, Collision Risk Data Collection (Final Report)

In this project, we assembled a sensor suite that combines a scientific echosounder (sonar) system with video and acoustic cameras (secondary sensors). The sensor suite generates data that is amenable to automated target detection algorithms and can provide inputs to animal encounter models. We developed software (archiving software) to collect data simultaneously from all sensors in the suite, analyze the sonar data automatically in near real-time to identify time periods when targets of interest were present, and automatically archive data from the secondary sensors for these time periods. The product of the archiving software is a data set for the secondary sensors, containing data only for the times when targets of interest were determined to be present by the sonar. We performed controlled field testing to verify the operation of the sensor suite and the archiving software.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Towards Resolving the Risk of Turbine Collision on Fish: FY21-22 Seedling Report Phase I

The most important concern for permitting tidal and river turbines is the collision risk of marine animals with the turbine blades. Our understanding of the risk to individual fish from colliding with turbine blades is poor; if these collisions were to occur, it is unknown whether fish will sustain recoverable injuries or be killed. Equally unknown is the impact these collisions might have on populations, particularly for threatened, endangered, or commercially managed fish species. In addition to observations of interactions of fish with turbines, numerical models need to be developed or expanded to predict impacts on fish populations. These models could replace expensive and technically challenging monitoring programs in high energy, often murky, tidal or river waters. In this project, a multi-pronged approach was taken to understand the state of knowledge for collision risk of fish with turbines and build a pathway forward. This approach included a workshop with experts, a literature review of modeling and empirical studies, the development of a research framework, and the identification of case studies to address through future work. This project is a first step towards the future development of effective and robust numerical models for assessing the collision risk of fish around turbines. This will achieve a balanced and improved estimate of the severity of collision risk to fish at the population scale.

Garavelli, Lysel↗

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

operations↗

Modelos de riesgo de colision: una herramienta para evaluar los riesgos para las aves rapaces en instalaciones de energia eolica (Spanish)

In January 2022, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 34 - Working Together to Resolve the Environmental Effects of Wind Energy (WREN) - organized a forum to discuss aspects of raptor collision risk with wind turbines. The forum included experts in raptor biology and physiology, collision risk modeling, wind energy development, and atmospheric scientists from seven countries. They represented a range of international stakeholder groups including academia, government agencies, national laboratories, and wildlife consultants. This educational brief summarizes the discussion during the forum and written comments from those who could not attend. Relevant literature was used to provide additional context when needed. For several species of raptors, such as golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) and white-tailed eagles (Haliaatus albicilla), collision risk with wind turbines continues to be a concern among stakeholders. These concerns include the potential population-level impact related to collisions, compliance with regulatory mechanisms for protected species, and the ability to generate renewable energy. To make siting and operational decisions, stakeholders require some level of certainty of the risk associated with a proposed project. Understanding this risk, in part, requires species-specific data on raptors and how they perceive and interact with wind farms or individual wind turbines. Collision risk models (CRMs) are a tool, often used in environmental impact assessments, that can provide estimates of risk relative to specific turbines or an entire wind farm. However, questions associated with the uncertainty in CRM estimates remain. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/FS-5000-84747, "Collision Risk Modeling - A Tool for Assessing Risks to Raptors at Wind Energy Facilities."

collision risk↗

Observations of marine animal interactions with a small tidal turbine

The risk of collisions between animals and operating tidal turbines remains a concern in the scientific and regulatory communities. A sensor package including optical cameras was deployed to monitor animal interactions with a small-scale (1 m 2 ) cross-flow tidal turbine. The turbine was deployed in Washington State, USA for 141 days at a site with peak flow speeds of 2.5 m/s. We analyze optical camera imagery spanning 109 days of turbine operation. The analyzed images contain 1044 observations of fish, fish schools, seabirds, or seals in the vicinity of the turbine. No instances of collision with seabirds or seals were observed. Seabirds were only observed during daylight hours and while the turbine was stationary. Both seals and fish were observed during both day and night and while the turbine was stationary and rotating. Four fish were observed colliding with the moving turbine and in all but one case the animals swam away following the collision. Over the same period of time, over fifty times more fish (224 individual fish and 5 fish schools) were observed passing the moving turbine without collision. Fish encounters were likely under counted due to the difficulty in discerning small fish from plant matter in the water column. These observations represent the first optical camera imagery showing fish, bird, and marine mammal interactions with a tidal turbine in North America. In addition to quantitative and qualitative discussion of the implications of our observations for collision risk, we discuss lessons learned on sampling schemes and deployment of machine learning for detection of animals to inform future data collection strategies in future monitoring campaigns.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 13, Issue 4

Although NASA has conducted research on orbital debris since the 1960s, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office is now considered to have been established in October 1979, following the recognition by senior NASA officials of orbital debris as a space environmental issue and the allocation by NASA Headquarters Advanced Programs Office to the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) of funds specifically dedicated for orbital debris investigations. In the 30 years since, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has pioneered the characterization of the orbital debris environment and its potential effects on current and future space systems, has developed comprehensive orbital debris mitigation measures, and has led efforts by the international aerospace community in addressing the challenges posed by orbital debris. In 1967 the Flight Analysis Branch at the Manned Spacecraft Center (renamed the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in 1973) evaluated the risks of collisions between an Apollo spacecraft and orbital debris. Three years later the same group calculated collision risks for the forthcoming Skylab space station, which was launched in 1973. By 1976, the nucleus of NASA s yet-to-be-formed orbital debris research efforts, including Andrew Potter, Burton Cour-Palais, and Donald Kessler, was found in JSC s Environmental Effects Office, examining the potential threat of orbital debris to large space platforms, in particular the proposed Solar Power Satellites (SPS).

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

Trending in Pc Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Mixed Model

Two satellites predicted to come within close proximity of one another, usually a high-value satellite and a piece of space debris moving the active satellite is a means of reducing collision risk but reduces satellite lifetime, perturbs satellite mission, and introduces its own risks. So important to get a good statement of the risk of collision in order to determine whether a maneuver is truly necessary. Two aspects of this Calculation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) based on the most recent set of position velocity and uncertainty data for both satellites. Examination of the changes in the Pc value as the event develops. Events should follow a canonical development (Pc vs time to closest approach (TCA)). Helpful to be able to guess where the present data point fits in the canonical development in order to guide operational response.

Conjuction Assessment↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for deploying new batches of these satellites often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in transecting orbits that have the potential to cross other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are added and old satellites are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have on future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of realistic future scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical satellite constellations, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure, as well as station-keeping. The simulation can be customized to accommodate different methods of calculating the probability of collision, as well as the process for determining probability ellipsoids and screening volumes. This makes it possible to replicate, and compare, different processes used by different spacecraft operators and space situational awareness (SSA) providers. As the model is run forward in time, each conjunction event is recorded, allowing for the analysis of statistics and meta-data related to these events, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, such as whether are they active or passive objects, what size are the two objects, and who owns the objects (if known). This information makes it possible to characterize how changes to the status quo affect the number and type of conjunctions that occur, as well as the distributional effects on various types of satellite operators. To assess the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments, approximately 60,000 new large constellation satellites were considered, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 7800 known resident space objects (RSOs), over a simulation period of one year. The results indicate that the future space environment will introduce a non-linear increase in conjunction events as the number of RSOs also increase. This will require adjustments to spacecraft fuel budgets in order to conduct the avoidance maneuvers necessary to minimize collision risk, both for existing and new satellites. This increase is due in large part to the higher density of RSOs and the overlap between some constellation orbits. Current catalog objects were shown to require three times more ∆V for collision avoidance (CA) maneuvers in the simulated future environment, and some constellation spacecraft were estimated to devote the majority of their annual ∆V to CA. The impact of small satellites was found to be proportional for the current space environment, and actually decreased in terms of percentage for the future scenario, suggesting that small satellites do not pose an outsized collision risk. Lastly, transecting satellites were found to contribute thousands of additional conjunctions outside of their operational orbit, and may require up to an additional 5% in CA maneuver fuel allocation.

conjunction assessment↗

Close Approach Prediction Analysis of the Earth Science Constellation with the Fengyun-1C Debris

Routine satellite operations for the Earth Science Constellation (ESC) include collision risk assessment between members of the constellation and other orbiting space objects. Each day, close approach predictions are generated by a U.S. Department of Defense Joint Space Operations Center Orbital Safety Analyst using the high accuracy Space Object Catalog maintained by the Air Force's 1" Space Control Squadron. Prediction results and other ancillary data such as state vector information are sent to NASAJGoddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC's) Collision Risk Assessment analysis team for review. Collision analysis is performed and the GSFC team works with the ESC member missions to develop risk reduction strategies as necessary. This paper presents various close approach statistics for the ESC. The ESC missions have been affected by debris from the recent anti-satellite test which destroyed the Chinese Fengyun- 1 C satellite. The paper also presents the percentage of close approach events induced by the Fengyun-1C debris, and presents analysis results which predict the future effects on the ESC caused by this event. Specifically, the Fengyun-1C debris is propagated for twenty years using high-performance computing technology and close approach predictions are generated for the ESC. The percent increase in the total number of conjunction events is considered to be an estimate of the collision risk due to the Fengyun-1C break- UP.

Duncan, Matthew↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for placing new batches of these satellites on orbit often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in high-eccentricity orbits that have the potential to transect other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are replaced and old ones are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have to future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of future realistic scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical scenarios, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and more. As the model is run forward in time, various statistics and meta-data are gathered on any predicted conjunction event, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, e.g., what size are the two satellites, who operates the satellites, are they active or passive objects, etc. Additional customization is available in terms of how probability of collision is computed, and how the probability ellipsoids and screening volumes are determined. The simulation tool also allows for rule-based maneuvers for active satellites, e.g, given an advance conjunction “warning,” one or both of the satellites can maneuver to a safe distance. A wide range of maneuvers can be implemented using impulsive or low-thrust methods, and the latencies can also be varied, e.g., using maneuver lead times of 48 hours, 24 hours, or 12 hours. Validation of the simulation results is performed against current and historical datasets available, to include comparisons to prior conjunction data messages (CDMs), object properties (mass, volume, etc.), and two-line-element records from both public and internal sources. Using the simulation environment, an assessment on the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments will be presented. This will involve the simulation of approximately 50,000 new large constellation satellites, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 20,000 known resident space objects (RSOs), over propagation periods of one month to one year. A description of the simulation methodologies, scenarios evaluated, and validation methods will also be presented, as well as a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of several candidate maneuver strategies that have the potential to reduce collision risk between active satellites.

Brian Gunter↗

Behavioral responses of fish to a current-based hydrokinetic turbine under mutliple operational conditions

There is significant international interest in developing current-based marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies to capture the power of tidal energy. However, concerns have been raised regarding the ecological effects of these projects on fish, including the risk of blade collision and behavioral impacts such as the disruption of migratory behavior and food acquisition and displacement from preferred habitats. In this study, we conducted mobile hydroacoustic surveys to track fish as they approached a tidal turbine deployed in Cobscook Bay, Maine. There was a significant decline in fish numbers with decreasing distance to the turbine, beginning approximately 140 m from the turbine. Similar declines were not observed at control transects or when the turbine was not spinning. The decline in fish numbers appeared to be the result of horizontal displacement, not vertical, movements to avoid the turbine. Noise rather than visual cues or flow field disturbance seemed to be a likely explanation for the reduced number of fish near the turbine. This finding, combined with near-field blade collision studies indicating a low probability of encounter, suggests that a single turbine poses a low collision risk to pelagic fish and that a single turbine is likely to result in minimal behavioral responses by fish. However, the risk may be different with additional devices, which will become more relevant as commercial-scale MHK arrays come under consideration. Therefore, the risks associated with commercial-scale operations will ultimately have to be evaluated to fully understand the ecological impacts of MHK devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Review of Modeling Approaches for Understanding and Monitoring the Environmental Effects of Marine Renewable Energy

Understanding the environmental effects of marine energy (ME) devices is fundamental for their sustainable development and efficient regulation. However, measuring effects is difficult given the limited number of operational devices currently deployed. Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating environmental effects and quantifying risks. It is most effective when informed by empirical data and coordinated with the development and implementation of monitoring protocols. We reviewed modeling techniques and information needs for six environmental stressor–receptor interactions related to ME: changes in oceanographic systems, underwater noise, electromagnetic fields (EMFs), changes in habitat, collision risk, and displacement of marine animals. This review considers the effects of tidal, wave, and ocean current energy converters. We summarized the availability and maturity of models for each stressor–receptor interaction and provide examples involving ME devices when available and analogous examples otherwise. Models for oceanographic systems and underwater noise were widely available and sometimes applied to ME, but need validation in real-world settings. Many methods are available for modeling habitat change and displacement of marine animals, but few examples related to ME exist. Models of collision risk and species response to EMFs are still in stages of theory development and need more observational data, particularly about species behavior near devices, to be effective. We conclude by synthesizing model status, commonalities between models, and overlapping monitoring needs that can be exploited to develop a coordinated and efficient set of protocols for predicting and monitoring the environmental effects of ME.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

International assessment of priority environmental issues for land-based and offshore wind energy development

Non-technical summary A substantial increase in wind energy deployment worldwide is required to help achieve international targets for decreasing global carbon emissions and limiting the impacts of climate change. In response to global concerns regarding the environmental effects of wind energy, the International Energy Agency Wind Technical Collaborative Program initiated Task 34 – Working Together to Resolve Environmental Effects of Wind Energy or WREN. As part of WREN, this study performed an international assessment with the global wind energy and environmental community to determine priority environmental issues over the next 5‒10 years and help support collaborative interactions among researchers, developers, regulators, and stakeholders. Technical summary A systematic assessment was performed using feedback from the international community to identify priority environmental issues for land-based and offshore wind energy development. Given the global nature of wind energy development, feedback was of interest from all countries where such development is underway or planned to help meet United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change targets. The assessment prioritized environmental issues over the next 5–10 years associated with wind energy development and received a total of 294 responses from 28 countries. For land-based wind, the highest-ranked issues included turbine collision risk for volant species (birds and bats), cumulative effects on species and ecosystems, and indirect effects such as avoidance and displacement. For offshore wind, the highest-ranked issues included cumulative effects, turbine collision risk, underwater noise (e.g. marine mammals and fish), and displacement. Emerging considerations for these priorities include potential application to future technologies (e.g. larger turbines and floating turbines), new stressors and species in frontier regions, and cumulative effects for multiple projects at a regional scale. For both land-based and offshore wind, effectiveness of minimization measures (e.g. detection and deterrence technologies) and costs for monitoring, minimization, and mitigation were identified as overarching challenges. Social media summary Turbine collisions and cumulative effects among the international environmental priorities for wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗

DANTi: Detect and Avoid iN The Cockpit

Mid-air collision risk continues to be a concern for manned aircraft operations, especially near busy non-towered airports. The use of Detect and Avoid (DAA) technologies and draft standards developed for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), either alone or in combination with other collision avoidance technologies, may be useful in mitigating this collision risk for manned aircraft. This paper describes a NASA research effort known as DANTi (DAA iN The Cockpit), including the initial development of the concept of use, a software prototype, and results from initial flight tests conducted with this prototype. The prototype used a single Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) traffic sensor and the own aircraft's position, track, heading and air data information, along with NASA-developed DAA software to display traffic alerts and maneuver guidance to manned aircraft pilots on a portable tablet device. Initial flight tests with the prototype showed a successful DANTi proof-of-concept, but also demonstrated that the traffic separation parameter set specified in the RTCA SC-228 Phase I DAA MOPS may generate excessive false alerts during traffic pattern operations. Several parameter sets with smaller separation values were also tested in flight, one of which yielded more timely alerts for the maneuvers tested. Results from this study may further inform future DANTi efforts as well as Phase II DAA MOPS development.

Chamberlain, James↗