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NASA NTRS2014

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

This final technical report describes the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable solution to the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The technical materials contained in this final report are based on numerous technical papers, which have been previously published by the project team of the NIAC Phase 1 and 2 studies during the past three years. Those technical papers as well as a NIAC Phase 2 Executive Summary report can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

NEO↗
NASA NTRS1982

Geological implications of impacts of large asteroids and comets on the earth

The present conference discusses such topics as large object fluxes in near-earth space and the probabilities of terrestrial impacts, the geological record of impacts, dynamics modeling for large body impacts on continents and oceans, physical, chemical, and biological models of large impacts' atmospheric effects, dispersed impact ejecta and their signatures, general considerations concerning mass biological extinctions, the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, geochemical signatures in the stratigraphic record, and other phanerozoic events. Attention is given to terrestrial impact rates for long- and short-period comets, estimates of crater size for large body impact, a first-order estimate of shock heating and vaporization in oceanic impacts, atmospheric effects in the first few minutes after an impact, a feasibility test for biogeographic extinction, and the planktonic and dinosaur extinctions.

Silver, L. T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Meteoritic Component in Impact Deposits

An important part of the history of impacts on Earth, and their influence on the terrestrial environment and biotic evolution, is the provenance of the impacting bolides. This will reflect the history of the large-body object flux in the inner solar system. The physical and chemical properties of projectiles, as well as their orbital evolution, has influenced the dynamics and the relative timing of impact events. Possible impact scenarios include random impacts by individual asteroids or comets, or clusters of impacts due to major collisions in the asteroid or Kuiper belts, or large perturbations of the Oort cloud of comets. Over the last several years, a combination of trace element, isotopic, and petrologic data have yielded significant insights into this impact history. The trace element chemistry of sediments, in particular the concentration of siderophiles (e.g., Ir), is a useful tool to detect impacts and provides supporting evidence for suspected impact deposits. However, siderophiles are not especially useful in distinguishing between types of projectiles. Interelement abundances of PGEs can distinguish a chondritic signature, but since most asteroids, and probably all comets are chondritic, these data do little to distinguish between chondritic source materials. Perhaps the most significant chemical argument used to constrain provenance, is that the total amount of Ir in the global Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) boundary ejecta layer is considerably less than that expected by a low-velocity, 10 km asteroid impact and is most consistent with the impact of a high-velocity, low-Ir comet. Alternatively, much of the Ir may have been buried in the Chicxulub crater and/or ejected to escape velocity.

Kyte, Frank T.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Time-dependent Calculations of an Impact-triggered Runaway Greenhouse Atmosphere on Mars

Large asteroid and comet impacts result in the production of thick (greater than tens of meters) global debris layers of 1500+ K and the release through precipitation of impact-injected steam and melting ground ice) of large amounts (greater than tens of meters global equivalent thickness) of water on the surface of Mars. Modeling shows that the surface of Mars is still above the freezing point of water after the rainout of the impact-injected steam and melting of subsurface ice. The energy remaining in the hot debris layer will allow evaporation of this water back into the atmosphere where it may rain out at a later time. Given a sufficiently rapid supply of this water to the atmosphere it will initiate a temporary "runaway" greenhouse state.

T L Segura↗
NASA NTRS1985

Terrestrial impactors at geological boundary events - Comets or asteroids?

In the present evaluation of evidence presented to date for a 26-28 million year periodicity in the extinction record and the age of large, well dated terrestrial impact craters, it is noted that no simple, one-to-one relationship emerges between major asteroid and/or comet impacts, siderophile anomalies, and biological extinction events. While impacts may indeed be the major extinction-triggering event in some or even most cases, either other major events, or secondary effects of the impacts, may be the actual extinction-causing mechanism. Long term obscuration of insolation, planetary cooling, or lethal atmospheric pollution may vary among extinctions, depending on the actual state of the planet and its biota during the geological period in question. The source of 28 million year-period asteroidal impactors, moreover, remains unknown and thereby casts doubt on the entire periodicity scenario.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Biospheric traumas caused by large impacts and predicted relics in the sedimentary record

When a large asteroid or comet impacts the Earth the supersonic plume ejected on impact causes severe shock heating and chemical reprocessing of the proximal atmosphere. The resultant NO is converted rapidly to NO2, foliage damage due to exposure to NO2 and HNO3, toxicosis resulting from massive mobilization of soil trace metals, and faunal asphyxiation due to exposure to NO2. One class of relic evidence for the above effects arises because extinction of species caused by these chemically induced traumas would be selective. A second class of relic evidence arises because the acid rain will cause massive weathering of continental rocks and soils characterized by large ratios of the relatively insoluble metals, to the more soluble metals. This weathering would be best recorded in fossils in unperturbed deltaic, neritic, or limnetic sediments and for metals with very long oceanic residence times in deep ocean sediments as well. This evidence is discussed.

Prinn, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Life and Death on Mars and Earth

Failure to discover life on Mars has led a great many experts to conclude that it must be hiding. Where? The likeliest hiding places are deep beneath the surface, where geothermal heat could permit liquid water. In this the search for life on Mars parallels the search for water on Mars. Liquid water has been, at least on occasion, a geologically significant presence on the surface. Channels were cut and plains dissected. This water is now hidden, in all likelihood having drained to the base of the porous regolith, where it fills possibly frozen aquifers. Presumably any surviving biota has followed the water from the surface to its hiding places in the deep. Accordingly, we have extended our environmental impact assessment of the environmental hazards posed by large asteroid and comet impacts to Mars, and compare its case to Earth's. In particular, we address the continuous habitability of surface and subsurface environments.

Zahnle, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Lunar Impact Flash Locations from NASA's Lunar Impact Monitoring Program

Meteoroids are small, natural bodies traveling through space, fragments from comets, asteroids, and impact debris from planets. Unlike the Earth, which has an atmosphere that slows, ablates, and disintegrates most meteoroids before they reach the ground, the Moon has little-to-no atmosphere to prevent meteoroids from impacting the lunar surface. Upon impact, the meteoroid's kinetic energy is partitioned into crater excavation, seismic wave production, and the generation of a debris plume. A flash of light associated with the plume is detectable by instruments on Earth. Following the initial observation of a probable Taurid impact flash on the Moon in November 2005,1 the NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) began a routine monitoring program to observe the Moon for meteoroid impact flashes in early 2006, resulting in the observation of over 330 impacts to date. The main objective of the MEO is to characterize the meteoroid environment for application to spacecraft engineering and operations. The Lunar Impact Monitoring Program provides information about the meteoroid flux in near-Earth space in a size range-tens of grams to a few kilograms-difficult to measure with statistical significance by other means. A bright impact flash detected by the program in March 2013 brought into focus the importance of determining the impact flash location. Prior to this time, the location was estimated to the nearest half-degree by visually comparing the impact imagery to maps of the Moon. Better accuracy was not needed because meteoroid flux calculations did not require high-accuracy impact locations. But such a bright event was thought to have produced a fresh crater detectable from lunar orbit by the NASA spacecraft Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The idea of linking the observation of an impact flash with its crater was an appealing one, as it would validate NASA photometric calculations and crater scaling laws developed from hypervelocity gun testing. This idea was dependent upon LRO finding a fresh impact crater associated with one of the impact flashes recorded by Earth-based instruments, either the bright event of March 2013 or any other in the database of impact observations. To find the crater, LRO needed an accurate area to search. This Technical Memorandum (TM) describes the geolocation technique developed to accurately determine the impact flash location, and by association, the location of the crater, thought to lie directly beneath the brightest portion of the flash. The workflow and software tools used to geolocate the impact flashes are described in detail, along with sources of error and uncertainty and a case study applying the workflow to the bright impact flash in March 2013. Following the successful geolocation of the March 2013 flash, the technique was applied to all impact flashes detected by the MEO between November 7, 2005, and January 3, 2014.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Report on the international Cambodian crater expedition, 1992

It has been proposed that Tonle Sap, a lake in Cambodia, 100 km long and 30 km wide, marks the location of an elongate basin formed by the oblique impact of a comet or asteroid. The impact is considered to have produced melted ejecta found now as tektites over much of southeast Asia and Australia. The location of the lake, its approximate age, its size, and the orientation of its long axis (toward Australia) are consistent with this hypothesis. Our scientific objectives were to find impact or shock metamorphosed rocks unambiguously related to the Tonle Sap basin, to collect samples of rocks that may represent those melted to produce Australasian tektites, and to learn as much as possible about Cambodian geology. Using 1:200,000-scale geologic maps with fairly detailed descriptions of the rock units, we selected a number of acceptable 'phnoms' (hills that rise abruptly out of the surrounding plain) that may contain rocks affected by the postulated Tonle Sap impact. A map of central Cambodia is shown, and the locations of sites where samples were collected are indicated. A list of those sites, together with a description of the rocks reported to be present at each site, is given. No obviously shock-metamorphosed or suevite-like rocks were observed. Recent alluvium surrounding Tonle Sap is judged to be lake sediment deposited when the lake surface was at a higher elevation.

Hartung, J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Cumulative frequency distribution of past species extinctions

Analysis of Sepkoski's compendium of the time ranges of 30,000+ taxa yields a mean duration of 28.4 ma for genera of fossil invertebrates. This converts to an average extinction rate of 3.5 percent per million years or about one percent every 286,000 years. Using survivorship techniques, these estimates can be converted to the species level, yielding a Phanerozoic average of one percent species extinction every 40,000 years. Variation in extinction rates through time is far greater than the null expectation of a homogeneous birth-death model and this reflects the well-known episodicity of extinction ranging from a few large mass extinctions to so-called background extinction. The observed variation in rates can be used to construct a cumulative frequency distribution of extinction intensity, and this distribution, in the form of a kill curve for species, shows the expected waiting times between extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction events of a given intensity. The kill curve is an average description of the extinction record and does not imply any cause or causes of extinction. The kill curve shows, among other things, that only about five percent of total species extinctions in the Phanerozoic were involved in the five largest mass extinctions. The other 95 percent were distributed among large and small events not normally called mass extinctions. As an exploration of the possibly absurd proposition that most past extinctions were produced by the effects of large-body impact, the kill curve for species was mapped on the comparable distribution for comet and asteroid impacts. The result is a curve predicting the species kill for a given size of impacting object (expressed as crater size). The results are reasonable in that impacts producing craters less than 30 km (diameter) cause negligible extinction but those producing craters 100-150 km (diameter) cause extinction of species in the range of 45-60 percent.

Raup, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Examining Topography of Mars Impact Basins to Determine If Impact Basins Have Topographic Characteristics of a Crater

Determining the topography of suspect craters on Mars will help scientists better understand the land deformation that occurs from an asteroid or comet impact. This will provide a better understanding of how Mars has changed over time and the topography data could be used for planning future missions to Mars. We have begun a program at the Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute (SIPI), a Bureau of Indian Affairs junior college, to analyze large impact basins on Mars (>300 km diameter) utilizing Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. Collaborators at the University of New Mexico and the U.S. Geological Survey are providing technical support for this effort.

Livingston, A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impacts with the Earth and Jupiter

The Earth has been subject to impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive current search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. In general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. The widely-observed impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 with Jupiter in July 1994 provides a graphic example of such an interplanetary collision and is stimulating worldwide interest in protecting our planet against cosmic impact catastrophes.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Impact Hazard

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS): A Space-Based System Concept for Revolutionizing Earth Protection and Utilization of Near-Earth Objects

There exists an infrequent, but significant hazard to life and property due to impacting asteroids and comets. There is currently no specific search for long-period comets, smaller near-Earth asteroids, or smaller short-period comets. These objects represent a threat with potentially little or no warning time using conventional ground-based telescopes. These planetary bodies also represent a significant resource for commercial exploitation, long-term sustained space exploration, and scientific research. The Comet/Asteroid Protection System (CAPS) would expand the current detection effort to include long-period comets, as well as small asteroids and short-period comets capable of regional destruction. A space-based detection system, despite being more costly and complex than Earth-based initiatives, is the most promising way of expanding the range of detectable objects, and surveying the entire celestial sky on a regular basis. CAPS is a future spacebased system concept that provides permanent, continuous asteroid and comet monitoring, and rapid, controlled modification of the orbital trajectories of selected bodies. CAPS would provide an orbit modification system capable of diverting kilometer class objects, and modifying the orbits of smaller asteroids for impact defense and resource utilization. This paper provides a summary of CAPS and discusses several key areas and technologies that are being investigated.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

New Observations at the Slate Islands Impact Structure, Lake Superior

Slate Islands, a group of 2 large and several small islands, is located in northern Lake Superior, approximately 10 km south of Terrace Bay. Shatter cones, breccias and shock metamorphic features provide evidence that the Slate Islands Structure was formed as a result of asteroid or comet impact. Most of the island group is believed to represent the central uplift of a complex impact crater. The structure possibly has a diameter of about 32 km. For Sage (1978, 1991) shock metamorphic features, shatter cones and pervasive rock brecciation are the results of diatreme activity. The present investigations represent the second year of a co-operative study of the Lunar and Planetary Institute, Houston, Texas and the Field Services Section (Northwest) of the Ontario Geological Survey. The objective of this investigation is to come to a better understanding of the formation of mid-size impact structures on Earth and the planets of the solar system. Impact processes played a fundamental role in the formation of the planets and the evolution of life on Earth. Meteorite and comet impacts are not a phenomenon of the past. Last year, more than 20 pieces of the Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacted on Jupiter and the Tunguska comet impacted in Siberia in the early years of this century. The study of impact processes is a relatively young part of geoscience and much is still to be learnt by detailed field and laboratory investigations. The State Islands Structure has been selected for the present detailed investigations because of the excellent shoreline outcrops of rock units related to the impact. The structure is a complex impact crater that has been eroded so that important lithological and structural elements are exposed. We know of no other mid-size terrestrial impact structure with equal or better exposures. In this publication we present preliminary results of our 1994 and 1995 field and laboratory investigations. We have tentatively identified a few impact melt and a considerable number of suevite occurrences.

Dressler, B. O.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cometary delivery of organic molecules to the early earth

It has long been speculated that earth accreted prebiotic organic molecules important for the origins of life from impacts of carbonaceous asteroids and comets during the period of heavy bombardment 4.5 x 10 to the 9th to 3.8 x 10 to the 9th years ago. A comprehensive treatment of comet-asteroid interaction with the atmosphere, surface impact, and resulting organic pyrolysis demonstrates that organics will not survive impacts at velocities greater than about 10 kilometers per second and that even comets and asteroids as small as 100 meters in radius cannot be aerobraked to below this velocity in 1-bar atmospheres. However, for plausible dense (10-bar carbon dioxide) early atmospheres, it is found that 4.5 x 10 to the 9th years ago earth was accreting intact cometary organics at a rate of at least about 10 to the 6th to 10 to the 7th kilograms per year, a flux that thereafter declined with a half-life of about 10 to the 8th years. These results may be put in context by comparison with terrestrial oceanic and total biomasses, about 3 x 10 to the 12th kilograms and about 6 x 10 to the 14th kilograms, respectively.

Chyba, Christopher F.↗