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Coverage, repulsion, and reactivity of hydrogen on High-Entropy alloys

Modeling hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) activity probability on IrPdPtRhRu(1 1 1) high-entropy alloys. Determining hydrogen coverages based on ligand effects and generalized hydrogen–hydrogen repulsion. The rate of H 2 formation is highly impacted by the level of hydrogen coverage on the catalyst surface. In search of optimal catalytic properties high-entropy alloys (HEA) are promising candidates that utilize the compositional space of multiple elements. Based on simulations of HEA model (1 1 1) surfaces with a range of hydrogen coverages, distributions of binding energies are used to construct a framework that approximates the probability that adsorbed hydrogen may lead to the formation of H 2 as a function of applied potential. By optimizing the alloy compositions for the highest activity probability at given potentials the best and most efficient catalyst candidates for HER can be identified. Treating hydrogen–hydrogen repulsion effects and binding energy separately, we find that the repulsion is larger for HEAs than for pure metals. Differing isotherm slopes in the mean adsorption and desorption energies demonstrate a possible hysteresis for hydrogen adsorption on HEAs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Some methods of estimating a coverage parameter

To demonstrate the high reliability of fault-tolerant computing systems, experimental testing can be performed by injecting faults into their hardware and observing the times needed to detect and isolate failed components and reconfigure the good components. Coverage, a parameter measuring continued system success, is the probability that recovery occurs before other, perhaps catastrophic, component failures occur. Methods of estimating coverage are given for the case of randomly selecting a subset of the pins or chips for testing. Pin-level samples of times to recovery are treated by the Type I censoring model often used in life testing.

Lee, L. D.↗

Proposed Mars Surveyor Landing Sites in Northern Meridiani Sinus, Southern Elysium Planitia, and Argyre Planitia

Our objective is to propose two landing sites that the Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander and Athena Rover could go to on Mars that should meet the safety requirements of the spacecraft landing system and optimize surface operations (chiefly driven by power and communications requirements). An additional site within Argyre Planitia, initially proposed by Parker to the Mars Surveyor Landing Site program, is also proposed for potential consideration for post-2001 missions to Mars, as it is well outside the current latitude limits for the Athena Rover. All three sites are designed to be situated as close to a diversity of geologic units within a few kilometers of the landing site so that diversity can be placed in a geologic context. This objective is very different from the Mars Pathfinder requirement to land at a site with a maximum chance for containing a diversity of rocks within a few tens of meters of the lander. That requirement was driven by the Sojourner mobility limit of a few tens of meters. It can be argued that the Athena project, with its much larger mobility capability, might actually want to avoid such a site, because placing collected samples in geologic context would be difficult. While it has been argued, both before and after the Mars Pathfinder landing, that the provenance for local blocks may be determined by orbiter spectra, primarily from the MGS TES instrument, our ability to do so has yet to be demonstrated. Indeed, several months after conclusion of the Pathfinder mission, we have yet to reach a consensus on the composition of local materials. Our primary data set for selecting a landing site within the latitude and elevation constraints of the 2001 mission is the Viking Orbiter image archive. The site must be selected to place the landing ellipse so as to avoid obvious hazards, such as steep slopes, large or numerous craters, or abundant large knobs. For this purpose, we chose a resolution limit of better than 50 m/pixel. This necessarily excludes from the present study images from current and future orbiter spacecraft, until such data does become readily available. Within each proposed region, it may be possible to identify additional sites once these data become available. Second, the fine-component thermal inertia data, should be greater than about 5 or 6 cgs Units (10(exp -3) cal/sq cm s(exp -0.5)/K). Low thermal inertias imply dusty environments, which could pose a mobility hazard. Similarly, the albedo of the site should not be particularly high, which would also suggest dusty surfaces. Low albedos are preferred, as they often coincide with low Viking red:violet ratios and indicate less dusty surfaces. Next, the Modeled Block Abundance should also not be too high or too low. Based on the Viking Lander and Mars Pathfinder experiences, percentages of blocks should be on the order of 5-25%. Too many blocks could pose a hazard to the landing and mobility. Too few blocks could also indicate a dusty surface. Primary Landing Site: Northern Meridiani Sinus (Proposed by T. J. Parker and K., S. Edgett) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 0-3 N, 350-2 W. *Elevation (Viking): about0.5-1.5 Ian. (2) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbits 709A and 410B). Possible stereo coverage in region where two orbits overlap (probably small parallax angle, as these orbits are not listed in NASA Contractor Report 3501) (3) Albedo: about .18 -.26 (4) Block Abundance: 5-26% (5)Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: 5-9 cgs units This region consists of bright deposits similar to those described by Edgett et al, that also lie within a prominent dark albedo region. These deposits are flat-lying, to such a degree that they ramp against topography rather than draping over it. This led Edgett and Parker to suggest that they may be subaqueous sediments, possibly lacustrine or marine evaporites, laid down sometime from the late Noachian to middle Hesperian (age determination pending crater counts). A contact between this material and elevated, dissected highlands to the south was identified , and is described by Edgett et al. Our desire in proposing this landing site is to sample the edge of this deposit where it has been exposed through etching, presumably eolian deflation (the deposit, though in the highlands, is itself only lightly to moderately cratered). This should enable access to in situ stratigraphy. The actual landing site will be selected where slopes are not expected to be steep, such that the rover itself should be able to traverse them and sample layered materials on the way, either up or down the slope. Perhaps due to uncertainties at this time as to the friability or meter-scale roughness of the deposit, it might make sense to place the landing ellipse on the exhumed highland surface adjacent to the deflated margin of the deposit and plan on driving to the deposit rather than landing on it and driving downslope. This should also enable imaging the margin for evidence of layering should it prove too difficult to climb. A target ellipse on the highland surface should also allow Athena access to ancient Noachian highland materials, particularly if placed near crater ejecta or an inlier of knobby material. Secondary Landing Site: Southern Elysium Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 1.5-3.5 S, 195-198 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): -1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbit 725). Possible stereo coverage between images from beginning and end of orbit that overlap (probably small parallax angle) (4) Albedo: about .27-.28 (5) Block Abundance: 4-7% (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: about 3 cgs units This region consists of eroded knobby material, probably of Noachian age, though much of the crater population has been destroyed, that is onlapped at a sharp contact by an extensive plains unit in southern Elysium Planitia that is Amazonian in age. The plains materials have been attributed to unusually low-viscosity flood lavas from fissures south of the Elysium volcanic rise, or to lacustrine materials associated with a large, Amazonian lake at the source of Marte Vallis. Parker and Schenk presented evidence in support of the latter interpretation, though they attributed the putative shore morphology to an embayment of a northern plains ocean into the southern Elysium region. Detailed examination of the margin of the deposit, showing erosion, not simply burial, of small crater rims and fluidized ejecta blankets, also points to lacustrine or marine sedimentation rather than volcanic plains burial. The plains surface exhibits a "crusty" appearance that many researchers have attributed to pressure ridges in lava flows. In a lacustrine context, they also resemble pressure ridges in desiccated evaporite deposits and salt-rimmed pools (now dry) similar in scale and morphology to spectacular, hundred meter-scale pool rims in alkaline Lake Natron, East African Rift. The eroded highland margin surface adjacent to these plains appears to be fairly smooth, even at 15 m/pixel. Isolated knob inliers are scattered from a few kilometers to several tens of "kilometers apart. Heights of the knobs have not been measured yet but, based on experience with similar features in the Pathfinder landing ellipse, are probably typically on the order of several tens of meters high and smaller, though some of the largest knobs in the region are probably up to a few hundred meters high. Two craters larger than a kilometer in diameter, with fluidized deposits, lie nearby the proposed landing site. Very high-resolution images from MOC should help to determine whether a landing site navigable by the Athena rover could be placed in this region. The space between knobs and craters is large enough to enable placement of a target landing ellipse between them but still provide access to one or more of them and to the margin of the Elysium plains material. Post-2001 Mars Surveyor Landing Site: Argyre Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 55-56 S, 41-43 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): 1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 40 m/pixel images (orbits 567B, 568B, and 569B). Excellent stereo coverage with large parallax angles over the entire landing site region, and much of central and southern Argyre. (4) Albedo: about .23-.24 (5) Block Abundance: No data (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: No data The floors of both the Argyre and Hellas basins contain etched layered materials that are probably thick accumulations of channel or lacustrine sediments. The deposits in Hellas are much more eroded than those in Argyre, and Hellas lacks a channel outlet. Argyre is unique in that Uzboi Vallis flowed out of the basin, requiring overflow of a standing body of water within Argyre. This makes it the largest impact basin on Mars with channels both draining into it and flowing out from it. Hellas' channels may be catastrophic flood channels, whereas Argyre was fed by modest-scale valley networks, though the outlet at Uzboi Vallis was a catastrophic flood Highland craters and basins of this kind should be high-priority landing targets for missions intended to focus on the search for either prebiotic organic materials or even simple fossil microorganisms. Basins with internally-draining valley networks should be preferred over flood channels, as they could have provided the long-term influx of water favorable to the origin of life. (Catastrophic floods are not conducive to fossil preservation, due to their very short durations and high transportation energies). They also afford an opportunity to study the evolution of the planet's climate and volatiles during the period of time between the late Noachian and early Hesperian, when a drastic change from a proposed early warm, wet climate to one more closely resembling the modern environment is thought to have occurred. Large basin

Parker, T. J.↗

A design for a Venus orbital imaging radar mission

A planetary exploration mission to map the surface of Venus is discussed. A review of the Venus exploration program provides a basis for determining the probable scientific requirements for resolution, planetary coverage, etc., for such a mission. From these requirements, the range of possible mission, radar, and spacecraft functional requirements is determined and a single 'point' design is investigated in some detail. This point design, which provides full planet mapping at resolutions better than 200 meters, is based on Mariner-class spacecraft technology, including a conventional bipropellant propulsion system, currently under development, capable of delivering the required payload into a 500-km circular Venus orbit.

Rose, J. R.↗

Location of a faulty module in a computing system

Considering the interplay between different phases of fault tolerance, a new problem of locating a faulty module in a computing system is formulated and solved. First, the probability of each module being faulty, or faulty probability, is calculated using the likelihood principle from the model parameters for fault detection, diagnostics, error propagation, and error detection. Then, based on the faulty probabilities and a given required diagnostic coverage, the order in which modules are to be diagnosed and the maximum time allotted to diagnose each module are determined by minimizing the average total diagnostic time. An example is presented and analyzed to answer the question of whether or not a system should delay the diagnosis upon detection of an error until more errors are detected.

Lin, Tein-Hsiang↗

A probabilistic model for the evaluation of fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems using concurrent error detection

A probabilistic model to evaluate fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems has been developed. The matrix-based model and the analysis algorihtms based on it are described. Various probabilities associated with an algorithm-based fault tolerance system are discussed and the fault coverage of a given check is derived analytically and illustrated with examples. The probability matrices that are formed by introducing the spatial probabilities into the matrix model are considered. Based on these matrices, a technique is developed to determine the combined coverage of multiple numbers of checks. Examples of the analysis of systems using the model are given.

Nair, V. S. S.↗

Using Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall in the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness System

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness system(LHASA)gives a global view of landslide hazard in nearly real time. Currently, it is being upgraded from version 1 to version 2, which entails improvements along several dimensions. These include the incorporation of new predictors, machine learning, and new event-based landslide inventories. As a result, LHASA version 2 substantially improves on the prior performanceand introduces a probabilistic element to the global landslide nowcast. Data from the soil moisture active-passive (SMAP) satellite has been assimilated into a globally consistent data product with a latency less than 3 days, known as SMAP Level 4. In LHASA, thesedata representthe antecedent conditions prior to landslide-triggering rainfall. In some cases, soil moisture may have accumulated over aperiod of many months. The model behind SMAP Level 4 also estimates the amount of snow on the ground, which is an important factor in some landslide events. LHASA also incorporates this information as an antecedent condition that modulates the response torainfall. Slope, lithology, and active faults were also used as predictor variables. These factors can have a strong influence on where landslides initiate.LHASA relies on precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission to identify the locations where landslides are most probable. The low latency and consistent global coverage of these data make them ideal for real-time applications at continental to global scales. LHASA relies primarily on rainfall from the last 24 hours to spothazardous sites, which is rescaled by the local 99thpercentile rainfall.However, the multi-day latency of SMAP requires the use of a 2-day antecedent rainfall variable to represent the accumulation of rain between the antecedent soil moisture and current rainfall. LHASA merges these predictors with XGBoost, a commonly used machine-learning tool, relying on historical landslide inventories to develop the relationship between landslide occurrence and various risk factors. The resulting model relies heavily on current daily rainfall, but other factors also play an important role. LHASA outputsthe probability oflandslide occurrence ona grid of roughly one kilometer over all continents from 60 North to 60 South latitude. Evaluation over the period 2019-2020 showsthat LHASA version 2 doubles the accuracy of the global landslide nowcast without increasing the global false alarm rate. LHASA also identifies the areas where the human exposure to landslide hazard is most intense. Landslide hazard is divided into 4 levels: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Next, the number of persons and the length of major roads (primary and secondary roads)within each of these areas is calculated for every second-level administrative district (county). These results can be viewedthrough a web portal hosted at the Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition, users can download daily hazard and exposure data.LHASAversion 2uses machine learning and satellite data to identify areas of probable landslide hazard within hours of heavy rainfall. Itsglobal maps are significantly more accurate, and it now includes rapid estimates of exposed populations and infrastructure. In addition, a forecast mode will be implemented soon.

Thomas Stanley↗

Concentration transient analysis of antimony surface segregation during Si(100) molecular beam epitaxy

Antimony surface segregation during Si(100) molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) was investigated at temperatures T(sub s) = 515 - 800 C using concentration transient analysis (CTA). The dopant surface coverage Theta, bulk fraction gamma, and incorporation probability sigma during MBE were determined from secondary-ion mass spectrometry depth profiles of modulation-doped films. Programmed T(sub s) changes during growth were used to trap the surface-segregated dopant overlayer, producing concentration spikes whose integrated area corresponds to Theta. Thermal antimony doping by coevaporation was found to result in segregation strongly dependent on T(sub s) with Theta(sub Sb) values up to 0.9 monolayers (ML): in films doped with Sb(+) ions accelerated by 100 V, Theta(sub Sb) was less than or equal to 4 x 10(exp -3) ML. Surface segregation of coevaporated antimony was kinematically limited for the film growth conditions in these experiments.

Markert, L. C.↗

Orion Guidance and Control Ascent Abort Algorithm Design and Performance Results

During the ascent flight phase of NASA s Constellation Program, the Ares launch vehicle propels the Orion crew vehicle to an agreed to insertion target. If a failure occurs at any point in time during ascent then a system must be in place to abort the mission and return the crew to a safe landing with a high probability of success. To achieve continuous abort coverage one of two sets of effectors is used. Either the Launch Abort System (LAS), consisting of the Attitude Control Motor (ACM) and the Abort Motor (AM), or the Service Module (SM), consisting of SM Orion Main Engine (OME), Auxiliary (Aux) Jets, and Reaction Control System (RCS) jets, is used. The LAS effectors are used for aborts from liftoff through the first 30 seconds of second stage flight. The SM effectors are used from that point through Main Engine Cutoff (MECO). There are two distinct sets of Guidance and Control (G&C) algorithms that are designed to maximize the performance of these abort effectors. This paper will outline the necessary inputs to the G&C subsystem, the preliminary design of the G&C algorithms, the ability of the algorithms to predict what abort modes are achievable, and the resulting success of the abort system. Abort success will be measured against the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) abort performance metrics and overall performance will be reported. Finally, potential improvements to the G&C design will be discussed.

Proud, Ryan W.↗

2900 Square Degree Search for the Optical Counterpart of Short Gamma-Ray Burst GRB 180523B with the Zwicky Transient Facility

There is significant interest in the models for production of short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Until now, the number of known short GRBs with multi-wavelength afterglows has been small. While the Fermi GRB Monitor detects many GRBs relative to the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, the large localization regions makes the search for counterparts difficult. With the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF - part of Palomar Observatory) recently achieving first light, it is now fruitful to use its combination of depth (m (sub AB) approximating 20.6), field of view (approximately 47 square degrees), and survey cadence (every approximately 3 days) to perform Target of Opportunity observations. We demonstrate this capability on GRB 180523B, which was recently announced by the Fermi GRB Monitor as a short GRB. ZTF imaged 2900 square degrees of the localization region, resulting in the coverage of 61.6 percent of the enclosed probability over two nights to a depth of m (sub AB) approximating 20.5. We characterized 14 previously unidentified transients, and none were found to be consistent with a short GRB counterpart. This search with the ZTF shows it is an efficient camera for searching for coarsely localized short GRB and gravitational-wave counterparts, allowing for a sensitive search with minimal interruption to its nominal cadence.

Coughlin, Michael W.↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Probability distributions for the magnification of quasars due to microlensing

Gravitational microlensing can magnify the flux of a lensed quasar considerably and therefore possibly influence quasar source counts or the observed quasar luminosity function. A large number of distributions of magnification probabilities due to gravitational microlensing for finite sources are presented, with a reasonable coverage of microlensing parameter space (i.e., surface mass density, external shear, mass spectrum of lensing objects). These probability distributions were obtained from smoothing two-dimensional magnification patterns with Gaussian source profiles. Different source sizes ranging from 10 exp 14 cm to 5 x 10 exp 16 cm were explored. The probability distributions show a large variety of shapes. Coefficients of fitted slopes for large magnifications are presented.

Wambsganss, Joachim↗

A model for heterogeneous chemical processes on the surfaces of ice and nitric acid trihydrate particles

The study presents a model that incorporates the physics and physical chemistry of ice surfaces relevant to polar stratospheric clouds. Surface concentrations of H2O, HCl, HOCl, ClONO2, and N2O5 on ice and nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) crystals are computed, and surface reaction rates and reaction probabilities (sticking coefficients) are determined. For gas pressures of about 10 exp -7 torr and temperatures in the range of 180-200 K, HCl completely coats ice and water-rich NAT surfaces, while HOCl, ClOHO2, and N2O5 may cover 0.01-1 percent of these surfaces. The energy parameters are used to calculate surface temperatures such as adsorption and desorption constants, surface coverages, reaction rate coefficients, surface diffusion coefficients, and reaction probabilities for various species and chemical interactions on ice and NAT surfaces. Implications for chemical processing on polar stratospheric clouds are discussed.

Tabazadeh, Azadeh↗

Development of computer software to analyze entire LANDSAT scenes and to summarize classification results of variable-size polygons

The Forest Pest Management Division (FPMD) of the Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry has the responsibility for conducting annual surveys of the State's forest lands to accurately detect, map, and appraise forest insect infestations. A standardized, timely, and cost-effective method of accurately surveying forests and their condition should enhance the probability of suppressing infestations. The repetitive and synoptic coverage provided by LANDSAT (formerly ERTS) makes such satellite-derived data potentially attractive as a survey medium for monitoring forest insect damage over large areas. Forest Pest Management Division personnel have expressed keen interest in LANDSAT data and have informally cooperated with NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) since 1976 in the development of techniques to facilitate their use. The results of this work indicate that it may be feasible to use LANDSAT digital data to conduct annual surveys of insect defoliation of hardwood forests.

Turner, B. J.↗

Availability of positioning and receiver autonomous integrity monitoring for the global positioning system

Receiver-autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) of GPS data is examined by means of a simulation of the availability of a RAIM system that can provide both a GPS coverage model and a Markov reliability model. State probabilities of GPS failure scenarios are assigned with the Markov model with a maximum of 6 simultaneous satellite failures. The parametric analysis of the failures on GPS RAIM availability includes the maximum allowable value of the horizontal dilution of precision (HDOP), the mean time to repair, and the efficacy of incorporating altimeter measurements. When the HDOP requirement is relaxed the number of RAIM outages is minimized, and poor satellite geometry can lead to a large HDOP. The use of an altimeter can also reduce outages, and RAIM availability increases with optimistic values for the mean time to repair.

Kline, Paul A.↗

Sampling, aggregation, and variance estimation for area, yield, and production in LACIE

An approximately 2% sampling error was achieved in LACIE by sampling only approximately 2% of the sampling frame. The sample design in the yardstick region for which historical data were available down to a substratum level to support missing data resulting from cloud cover provided the most accurate estimate possible. The implemented strategy provided data of sufficient quality and quantity to support required performance levels and also to satisfy the existing constraints. The allocation scheme appeared to provide the most efficient usage of the available data and gave segment coverage of major producing areas and thus improved the probability of an accurate estimate.

Hallum, C. R.↗

Surface sticking probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103

The capture coefficient probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103 incident on Al2O3 surfaces were measured using the backscattering of MeV heavy ions. In the circumstance where the collecting surface is thickly covered, the sticking probabilities integrated over the energy distribution of sputtered atoms are 0.97 plus or minus 0.01 for Nb-93 and 0.95 plus or minus 0.01 for Rh-103 respectively. In the limit of negligible areal coverage of the collector, the accuracy is less; in this case the sticking probabilities are 0.97 + 0.03 or -0.08 and 0.95 + 0.05 or -0.08.

Weller, M. R.↗

Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3

We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg 2 , a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10 -25 yr -1 . The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than-16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day -1 (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day -1 ) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M ej < 0.03 M ⊙ , X lan > 10 -4 , or φ > 30° to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of-16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗