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NASA NTRS1990

A probabilistic model for the evaluation of fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems using concurrent error detection

A probabilistic model to evaluate fault-tolerant multiprocessor systems has been developed. The matrix-based model and the analysis algorihtms based on it are described. Various probabilities associated with an algorithm-based fault tolerance system are discussed and the fault coverage of a given check is derived analytically and illustrated with examples. The probability matrices that are formed by introducing the spatial probabilities into the matrix model are considered. Based on these matrices, a technique is developed to determine the combined coverage of multiple numbers of checks. Examples of the analysis of systems using the model are given.

Nair, V. S. S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Satellite Soil Moisture and Rainfall in the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness System

The Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness system(LHASA)gives a global view of landslide hazard in nearly real time. Currently, it is being upgraded from version 1 to version 2, which entails improvements along several dimensions. These include the incorporation of new predictors, machine learning, and new event-based landslide inventories. As a result, LHASA version 2 substantially improves on the prior performanceand introduces a probabilistic element to the global landslide nowcast. Data from the soil moisture active-passive (SMAP) satellite has been assimilated into a globally consistent data product with a latency less than 3 days, known as SMAP Level 4. In LHASA, thesedata representthe antecedent conditions prior to landslide-triggering rainfall. In some cases, soil moisture may have accumulated over aperiod of many months. The model behind SMAP Level 4 also estimates the amount of snow on the ground, which is an important factor in some landslide events. LHASA also incorporates this information as an antecedent condition that modulates the response torainfall. Slope, lithology, and active faults were also used as predictor variables. These factors can have a strong influence on where landslides initiate.LHASA relies on precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission to identify the locations where landslides are most probable. The low latency and consistent global coverage of these data make them ideal for real-time applications at continental to global scales. LHASA relies primarily on rainfall from the last 24 hours to spothazardous sites, which is rescaled by the local 99thpercentile rainfall.However, the multi-day latency of SMAP requires the use of a 2-day antecedent rainfall variable to represent the accumulation of rain between the antecedent soil moisture and current rainfall. LHASA merges these predictors with XGBoost, a commonly used machine-learning tool, relying on historical landslide inventories to develop the relationship between landslide occurrence and various risk factors. The resulting model relies heavily on current daily rainfall, but other factors also play an important role. LHASA outputsthe probability oflandslide occurrence ona grid of roughly one kilometer over all continents from 60 North to 60 South latitude. Evaluation over the period 2019-2020 showsthat LHASA version 2 doubles the accuracy of the global landslide nowcast without increasing the global false alarm rate. LHASA also identifies the areas where the human exposure to landslide hazard is most intense. Landslide hazard is divided into 4 levels: minimal, low, moderate, and high. Next, the number of persons and the length of major roads (primary and secondary roads)within each of these areas is calculated for every second-level administrative district (county). These results can be viewedthrough a web portal hosted at the Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition, users can download daily hazard and exposure data.LHASAversion 2uses machine learning and satellite data to identify areas of probable landslide hazard within hours of heavy rainfall. Itsglobal maps are significantly more accurate, and it now includes rapid estimates of exposed populations and infrastructure. In addition, a forecast mode will be implemented soon.

Thomas Stanley↗

NASA NTRS1991

Concentration transient analysis of antimony surface segregation during Si(100) molecular beam epitaxy

Antimony surface segregation during Si(100) molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) was investigated at temperatures T(sub s) = 515 - 800 C using concentration transient analysis (CTA). The dopant surface coverage Theta, bulk fraction gamma, and incorporation probability sigma during MBE were determined from secondary-ion mass spectrometry depth profiles of modulation-doped films. Programmed T(sub s) changes during growth were used to trap the surface-segregated dopant overlayer, producing concentration spikes whose integrated area corresponds to Theta. Thermal antimony doping by coevaporation was found to result in segregation strongly dependent on T(sub s) with Theta(sub Sb) values up to 0.9 monolayers (ML): in films doped with Sb(+) ions accelerated by 100 V, Theta(sub Sb) was less than or equal to 4 x 10(exp -3) ML. Surface segregation of coevaporated antimony was kinematically limited for the film growth conditions in these experiments.

Markert, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Orion Guidance and Control Ascent Abort Algorithm Design and Performance Results

During the ascent flight phase of NASA s Constellation Program, the Ares launch vehicle propels the Orion crew vehicle to an agreed to insertion target. If a failure occurs at any point in time during ascent then a system must be in place to abort the mission and return the crew to a safe landing with a high probability of success. To achieve continuous abort coverage one of two sets of effectors is used. Either the Launch Abort System (LAS), consisting of the Attitude Control Motor (ACM) and the Abort Motor (AM), or the Service Module (SM), consisting of SM Orion Main Engine (OME), Auxiliary (Aux) Jets, and Reaction Control System (RCS) jets, is used. The LAS effectors are used for aborts from liftoff through the first 30 seconds of second stage flight. The SM effectors are used from that point through Main Engine Cutoff (MECO). There are two distinct sets of Guidance and Control (G&C) algorithms that are designed to maximize the performance of these abort effectors. This paper will outline the necessary inputs to the G&C subsystem, the preliminary design of the G&C algorithms, the ability of the algorithms to predict what abort modes are achievable, and the resulting success of the abort system. Abort success will be measured against the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) abort performance metrics and overall performance will be reported. Finally, potential improvements to the G&C design will be discussed.

Proud, Ryan W.↗

NASA NTRS2019

2900 Square Degree Search for the Optical Counterpart of Short Gamma-Ray Burst GRB 180523B with the Zwicky Transient Facility

There is significant interest in the models for production of short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Until now, the number of known short GRBs with multi-wavelength afterglows has been small. While the Fermi GRB Monitor detects many GRBs relative to the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, the large localization regions makes the search for counterparts difficult. With the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF - part of Palomar Observatory) recently achieving first light, it is now fruitful to use its combination of depth (m (sub AB) approximating 20.6), field of view (approximately 47 square degrees), and survey cadence (every approximately 3 days) to perform Target of Opportunity observations. We demonstrate this capability on GRB 180523B, which was recently announced by the Fermi GRB Monitor as a short GRB. ZTF imaged 2900 square degrees of the localization region, resulting in the coverage of 61.6 percent of the enclosed probability over two nights to a depth of m (sub AB) approximating 20.5. We characterized 14 previously unidentified transients, and none were found to be consistent with a short GRB counterpart. This search with the ZTF shows it is an efficient camera for searching for coarsely localized short GRB and gravitational-wave counterparts, allowing for a sensitive search with minimal interruption to its nominal cadence.

Coughlin, Michael W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Probability distributions for the magnification of quasars due to microlensing

Gravitational microlensing can magnify the flux of a lensed quasar considerably and therefore possibly influence quasar source counts or the observed quasar luminosity function. A large number of distributions of magnification probabilities due to gravitational microlensing for finite sources are presented, with a reasonable coverage of microlensing parameter space (i.e., surface mass density, external shear, mass spectrum of lensing objects). These probability distributions were obtained from smoothing two-dimensional magnification patterns with Gaussian source profiles. Different source sizes ranging from 10 exp 14 cm to 5 x 10 exp 16 cm were explored. The probability distributions show a large variety of shapes. Coefficients of fitted slopes for large magnifications are presented.

Wambsganss, Joachim↗

NASA NTRS1993

A model for heterogeneous chemical processes on the surfaces of ice and nitric acid trihydrate particles

The study presents a model that incorporates the physics and physical chemistry of ice surfaces relevant to polar stratospheric clouds. Surface concentrations of H2O, HCl, HOCl, ClONO2, and N2O5 on ice and nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) crystals are computed, and surface reaction rates and reaction probabilities (sticking coefficients) are determined. For gas pressures of about 10 exp -7 torr and temperatures in the range of 180-200 K, HCl completely coats ice and water-rich NAT surfaces, while HOCl, ClOHO2, and N2O5 may cover 0.01-1 percent of these surfaces. The energy parameters are used to calculate surface temperatures such as adsorption and desorption constants, surface coverages, reaction rate coefficients, surface diffusion coefficients, and reaction probabilities for various species and chemical interactions on ice and NAT surfaces. Implications for chemical processing on polar stratospheric clouds are discussed.

Tabazadeh, Azadeh↗

NASA NTRS1981

Development of computer software to analyze entire LANDSAT scenes and to summarize classification results of variable-size polygons

The Forest Pest Management Division (FPMD) of the Pennsylvania Bureau of Forestry has the responsibility for conducting annual surveys of the State's forest lands to accurately detect, map, and appraise forest insect infestations. A standardized, timely, and cost-effective method of accurately surveying forests and their condition should enhance the probability of suppressing infestations. The repetitive and synoptic coverage provided by LANDSAT (formerly ERTS) makes such satellite-derived data potentially attractive as a survey medium for monitoring forest insect damage over large areas. Forest Pest Management Division personnel have expressed keen interest in LANDSAT data and have informally cooperated with NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) since 1976 in the development of techniques to facilitate their use. The results of this work indicate that it may be feasible to use LANDSAT digital data to conduct annual surveys of insect defoliation of hardwood forests.

Turner, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Availability of positioning and receiver autonomous integrity monitoring for the global positioning system

Receiver-autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) of GPS data is examined by means of a simulation of the availability of a RAIM system that can provide both a GPS coverage model and a Markov reliability model. State probabilities of GPS failure scenarios are assigned with the Markov model with a maximum of 6 simultaneous satellite failures. The parametric analysis of the failures on GPS RAIM availability includes the maximum allowable value of the horizontal dilution of precision (HDOP), the mean time to repair, and the efficacy of incorporating altimeter measurements. When the HDOP requirement is relaxed the number of RAIM outages is minimized, and poor satellite geometry can lead to a large HDOP. The use of an altimeter can also reduce outages, and RAIM availability increases with optimistic values for the mean time to repair.

Kline, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Sampling, aggregation, and variance estimation for area, yield, and production in LACIE

An approximately 2% sampling error was achieved in LACIE by sampling only approximately 2% of the sampling frame. The sample design in the yardstick region for which historical data were available down to a substratum level to support missing data resulting from cloud cover provided the most accurate estimate possible. The implemented strategy provided data of sufficient quality and quantity to support required performance levels and also to satisfy the existing constraints. The allocation scheme appeared to provide the most efficient usage of the available data and gave segment coverage of major producing areas and thus improved the probability of an accurate estimate.

Hallum, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Surface sticking probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103

The capture coefficient probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103 incident on Al2O3 surfaces were measured using the backscattering of MeV heavy ions. In the circumstance where the collecting surface is thickly covered, the sticking probabilities integrated over the energy distribution of sputtered atoms are 0.97 plus or minus 0.01 for Nb-93 and 0.95 plus or minus 0.01 for Rh-103 respectively. In the limit of negligible areal coverage of the collector, the accuracy is less; in this case the sticking probabilities are 0.97 + 0.03 or -0.08 and 0.95 + 0.05 or -0.08.

Weller, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Space station internal propagation

The Space Station Freedom (SSF) is planned with a wireless communication system in place for the transmission of information between crew members on board. The clarity of transmission is paramount to an effective system of communication. A short overview is presented of the system including the requirements of interest, and a statement of the problem. The theory used to solve the problem is explored. The results given are for the experiments performed on a mockup of the proposed structure at NASA-Marshall. The requirements on the signal level are that there is a 45 dB signal to noise ratio from end to end, and that coverage over 99 pct. of the volume be maintained. The Rice probability distribution function, a simple extension of the Rayleigh distribution, is used to estimate the field strength inside a volume, where a significant line of sight from the transmitter to the receiver exists. For the SSF, this distribution will correspond to the summation of a coherent line of sight path between the transmitter and the receiver and an incoherent portion. The incoherent portion is the sum of reflections from the walls and the equipment inside the SSF. The Rice distribution was found to be the optimal distribution from the results.

Richie, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Segmented testing

The fraction of faults detected for a digital network is frequently high for the first few input combinations applied out of a set of test vectors. When the particular ordering of test patterns does not appreciably change the shape of the coverage curve, there appears to be an advantage to splitting the test into segments which are applied at different times. It is shown that the expected time to error detection and the probability of an undetected double error can be reduced. The amount of reduction is dependent on the shape of the fault coverage curve. It is conjectured that such a reduction can be obtained for VLSI networks.

Robinson, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Segmented testing

Robinson, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Transfer Trajectory Design for the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) Mission

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission will determine the history of the loss of volatiles from the Martian atmosphere from a highly inclined elliptical orbit. MAVEN will launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on an Atlas-V 401 during an extended 36-day launch period opening November 18, 2013. The MAVEN Navigation and Mission Design team performed a Monte Carlo analysis of the Type-II transfer to characterize; dispersions of the arrival B-Plane, trajectory correction maneuvers (TCMs), and the probability of Mars impact. This paper presents detailed analysis of critical MOI event coverage, maneuver constraints, deltaV-99 budgets, and Planetary Protection requirements.

Folta, David↗

NASA NTRS1995

Is coverage a factor in non-Gaussianity of IMF parameters?

Recently, Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1994) showed that IMF parameters for the 1973 to 1990 period are not log-normally distributed as previously suggested by Burlaga and King (1979) for the data obtained over a shorter time period (1963-75). They studied the first four moments, namely: mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. For a Gaussian distribution, moments higher than the variance should vanish. In particular, Feynman and Ruzmaikin obtained very high values of kurtosis during some periods of their analysis. We note that the coverage for IMF parameters is very uneven for the period analyzed by them, ranging from less than 40% to greater than 80%. So a question arises as to whether the amount of coverage is a factor in their analysis. We decided to test this for the B(sub z) component of IMF, since it is an effective geoactive parameter for short term disturbances. Like them, we used 1-hour averaged data available on the Omnitape. We studied the scatter plots of the annual mean values of B(sub z)(nT) and its kurtosis versus the percent coverage for the year. We obtain a correlation coefficient of 0.48 and 0.42 respectively for the 1973-90 period. The probability for a chance occurrence of these correlation coefficients for 18 pair of points is less than 8%. As a rough measure of skewness, we determined the percent asymmetry between the areas of the histograms representing the distributions of the positive and the negative values of B(sub z) and studied its correlation with the coverage for the year. This analysis yields a correlation coefficient of 0.41 When we extended the analysis for the whole period for which IMF data are available (1963-93) the corresponding correlation coefficients are 0.59, 0.14, and 0.42. Our findings will be presented and discussed

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Detection of the earth with the SETI microwave observing system assumed to be operating out in the Galaxy

The maximum range is calculated at which radar signals from the earth could be detected by a search system similar to the NASA SETI Microwave Observing Project (SETI MOP) assumed to be operating out in the Galaxy. Figures are calculated for the Targeted Search and for the Sky Survey parts of the MOP, both planned to be operating in the 1990s. The probability of detection is calculated for the two most powerful transmitters, the planetary radar at Arecibo (Puerto Rico) and the ballistic missile early warning systems (BMEWSs), assuming that the terrestrial radars are only in the eavesdropping mode. It was found that, for the case of a single transmitter within the maximum range, the highest probability is for the sky survey detecting BMEWSs; this is directly proportional to BMEWS sky coverage and is therefore 0.25.

Billingham, John↗

NASA NTRS1994

Voids and constraints on nonlinear clustering of galaxies

Void statistics of the galaxy distribution in the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey provide strong constraints on galaxy clustering in the nonlinear regime, i.e., on scales R equal to or less than 10/h Mpc. Computation of high-order moments of the galaxy distribution requires a sample that (1) densely traces the large-scale structure and (2) covers sufficient volume to obtain good statistics. The CfA redshift survey densely samples structure on scales equal to or less than 10/h Mpc and has sufficient depth and angular coverage to approach a fair sample on these scales. In the nonlinear regime, the void probability function (VPF) for CfA samples exhibits apparent agreement with hierarchical scaling (such scaling implies that the N-point correlation functions for N greater than 2 depend only on pairwise products of the two-point function xi(r)) However, simulations of cosmological models show that this scaling in redshift space does not necessarily imply such scaling in real space, even in the nonlinear regime; peculiar velocities cause distortions which can yield erroneous agreement with hierarchical scaling. The underdensity probability measures the frequency of 'voids' with density rho less than 0.2 -/rho. This statistic reveals a paucity of very bright galaxies (L greater than L asterisk) in the 'voids.' Underdensities are equal to or greater than 2 sigma more frequent in bright galaxy samples than in samples that include fainter galaxies. Comparison of void statistics of CfA samples with simulations of a range of cosmological models favors models with Gaussian primordial fluctuations and Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-like initial power spectra. Biased models tend to produce voids that are too empty. We also compare these data with three specific models of the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony: an unbiased, open universe CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.5) provides a good match to the VPF of the CfA samples. Biasing of the galaxy distribution in the 'standard' CDM model (omega = 1, b = 1.5; see below for definitions) and nonzero cosmological constant CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.6 lambda(sub 0) = 0.6, b = 1.3) produce voids that are too empty. All three simulations match the observed VPF and underdensity probability for samples of very bright (M less than M asterisk = -19.2) galaxies, but produce voids that are too empty when compared with samples that include fainter galaxies.

Vogeley, Michael S.↗