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This slide presentation reviews creating a preliminary multi-variable cost model for the contract costs of making a space telescope. There is discussion of the methodology for collecting the data, definition of the statistical analysis methodology, single variable model results, testing of historical models and an introduction of the multi variable models.
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Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically estimated after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more rapidly. This paper uses the tool SAPE-C (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing-Cost). SAPE-C integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools and enables large design tradespace exploration early in the design process. SAPE-C is used to analyze several tradespaces of the Mid-Lift-to-Drag ratio rigid entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of payload, vehicle length, and main engine specific impulse on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
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Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. However, great care is required. Some space telescope cost models, such as those based only on mass, lack sufficient detail to support such analysis and may lead to inaccurate conclusions. Similarly, using ground based telescope models which include the dome cost will also lead to inaccurate conclusions. This paper reviews current and historical models. Then, based on data from 22 different NASA space telescopes, this paper tests those models and presents preliminary analysis of single and multi-variable space telescope cost models.
Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews the methodology used to develop space telescope cost models; summarizes recently published single variable models; and presents preliminary results for two and three variable cost models. Some of the findings are that increasing mass reduces cost; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years.
Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Cost estimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored
Parametric cost models are an important tool for planning missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper presents on-going efforts to develop single variable and multi-variable cost models for space telescope optical telescope assembly (OTA). These models are based on data collected from historical space telescope missions. Standard statistical methods are used to derive CERs for OTA cost versus aperture diameter and mass. The results are compared with previously published models.
Development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand, identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by CPS systems, identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system, and postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level were achieved. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.
The overall purpose was to forecast the potential United States domestic telecommunications demand for satellite provided customer promises voice, data and video services through the year 2000, so that this information on service demand would be available to aid in NASA program planning. To accomplish this overall purpose the following objectives were achieved: (1) development of a forecast of the total domestic telecommunications demand; (2) identification of that portion of the telecommunications demand suitable for transmission by satellite systems; (3) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by consumer promises service (CPS) systems; (4) identification of that portion of the satellite market addressable by Ka-band CPS system; and (5) postulation of a Ka-band CPS network on a nationwide and local level. The approach employed included the use of a variety of forecasting models, a parametric cost model, a market distribution model and a network optimization model. Forecasts were developed for: 1980, 1990, and 2000; voice, data and video services; terrestrial and satellite delivery modes; and C, Ku and Ka-bands.
Parametric cost models are used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews an on-going effort to develop cost modes for space telescopes. This paper summarizes the methodology used to develop cost models and documents how changes to the database have changed previously published preliminary cost models. While the cost models are evolving, the previously published findings remain valid: it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; technology development as a function of time reduces cost; and lower areal density telescopes cost more than more massive telescopes.
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