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486 records · Page 24

PowerModelsGAT-AI: Physics-Informed Graph Attention for Multi-System Power Flow With Continual Learning

Solving the alternating current power flow equations in real time is essential for secure grid operation, yet classical Newton–Raphson solvers can be slow under stressed conditions. Existing graph neural networks for power flow are typically trained on a single system and often degrade on different systems. We present PowerModelsGAT-AI, a physics-informed graph attention network that predicts bus voltages and generator injections. The model uses bus-type-aware masking to handle different bus types and balances multiple loss terms, including a power-mismatch penalty, using learned weights. We evaluate the model on 14 benchmark systems (4 to 6,470 buses) and train a unified model on 13 of these under contingency conditions with up to two branch outages, achieving an average normalized mean absolute error of 0.89% for voltage magnitudes and R 2 >0.99 for voltage angles. We also show continual learning: when adapting a base model to a new 1,354-bus system, standard fine-tuning causes severe forgetting with error increases exceeding 1000% on base systems, while our experience replay and elastic weight consolidation strategy keeps error increases below 2% and in some cases improves base-system performance. Interpretability analysis shows that learned attention weights correlate with physical branch parameters (susceptance: r=0.38 ; thermal limits: r=0.22 ), and feature importance analysis supports that the model captures established power flow relationships.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Full-core high-burnup BWR LOCA fuel performance analysis and FFRD susceptibility

The susceptibility of the boiling water reactor (BWR) Limerick Unit 1 to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal during a postulated large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) was calculated using a multiphysics framework. The simulations include full-core, rod-resolved neutronic, thermal hydraulic, and fuel performance models using the VERA, TRACE, and BISON codes. This work focused on the transient BISON simulations, which include both the normal operation and LBLOCA periods in the same simulations. Cladding integrity was assessed using two correlations that are included with BISON. make page break Several new BWR-specific features were recently added to BISON. This work represents the first time these features have been included in a core-scale set of simulations. This study hence evaluates the performance of these new models for an operating reactor with realistic operating conditions. Simulation results showed that cladding integrity was maintained (i.e., no rods burst). Finally, future work to improve BWR and PWR predictions using this framework is suggested.

BISON

Thermally Stable Co@C3N4 Single-Atom Catalysts for CO Oxidation: Atomic-Level Insights into Structure and Activity

Single Co atoms supported on C3N4 (Co@C3N4) have demonstrated high activity and selectivity in photocatalysis. However, the investigation of structure–function relationships and reaction mechanisms under photocatalytic conditions is very challenging due to the complex conditions of light absorption, charge transfer, and catalysis. In this study, we employed thermal CO oxidation as a prototypical probe reaction to benchmark the intrinsic catalytic performance and track the active-site evolution of Co@C3N4. Single Co atoms were identified and shown to be the catalytically active sites for CO oxidation based on control experiments and isotope-labeling experiments. The Co sites remained atomically dispersed before, during, and after the reaction with temperatures up to 400 °C, as established by in situ X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) combined with density functional theory (DFT), FDMNES simulations, and dynamic-time-warping (DTW)-assisted X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) matching. Together with theoretical calculations, the integrated analysis reveals a stable coordination environment under reaction conditions, which correlates with sustained activity, establishing Co@C3N4 single-atom catalysts as thermally stable CO oxidation catalysts. Beyond these findings, the current study provides a workflow for unambiguously assigning active sites in Co@C3N4 for thermal CO oxidation. This workflow will aid the understanding of their behavior in photocatalysis in the future, where light-driven dynamics obscure direct structure–function links. Notably, this study provides fundamental insights for the rational design of robust single-atom catalysts and a foundation for the broader application of Co@C3N4 catalysts in oxidation reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Henry’s Solubility and Diffusion Coefficients for 29 Volatile Organic Compounds in Polydimethylsiloxane Sylgard 184 at 293 K

Two-dimensional (2D) inverse gas chromatography (IGC) enables simultaneous determination of Henry’s solubility and Fickian diffusion coefficients for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in polymer films. This technique offers a significant advantage over traditional cylindrical column IGC by providing precise control and measurement of the film thickness (here, 0.064 ± 0.002 mm), which is the critical length scale for accurate diffusivity determination. We apply this methodology to characterize VOC transport in Sylgard 184, a widely used polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS)-based polymer containing substantial silica filler content. At room temperature (20 °C), we measured solubility and diffusion coefficients for 29 common VOCs spanning diverse chemical functionalities, including alkanes, aromatics, chlorinated solvents, ketones, esters, and alcohols. Comparison with literature data for pure PDMS reveals that VOC solubility in Sylgard 184 is generally higher; for most non-hydrogen-bonding compounds it remains within a factor of 2 of pure PDMS, whereas alcohols are enhanced by roughly 1.8 to 3.7 times, which we attribute to favorable interactions with residual silanol groups on the silanized silica filler. Diffusion coefficients range from 1.0 × 10 –6 cm 2 /s (n-undecane) to 8.9 × 10–5 cm 2 /s (acetonitrile) and align well with extrapolated literature values for PDMS. This study provides essential thermodynamic and transport data for predicting VOC permeation in Sylgard 184 while demonstrating the utility of 2D IGC as a robust technique for characterizing rubbery polymer membranes across diverse industrial applications.

organic

Mechanical and durability properties of ultra-high-performance concrete of spent nuclear fuel dry storage systems: a review

Dry storage systems are used for interim storage of spent nuclear fuel (SNF). However, with the growing need to extend the operational periods of these systems, there are concerns about the degradation of their concrete overpacks, which could compromise the system's structural integrity and safety during hazardous events. Traditional concrete mixtures used in SNF dry storage systems have remained largely unchanged since their inception and often use conventional ingredients. These materials are susceptible to degradation mechanisms such as chemical attacks, alkali-silica reactions (ASR), and freeze–thaw cycles, which can lead to a loss of strength and durability over time. To address these challenges, this paper reviews the application of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) as a promising alternative for spent nuclear fuel dry storage system overpacks. UHPC offers superior mechanical properties, exceptional durability, and reduced susceptibility to degradation mechanisms compared to conventional concrete. This paper focuses on the role of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) such as silica fume, fly ash, and metakaolin in enhancing UHPC performance for SNF storage applications. These SCMs have been shown to significantly improve the material’s microstructure, strength, and resistance to environmental stressors typically encountered in SNF storage environments. Moreover, incorporating SCMs supports sustainable construction by reducing cement consumption and associated carbon emissions. The review brings together existing research and experimental data, providing insights for engineers and researchers on developing UHPC mixtures that meet the rigorous demands of spent nuclear fuel dry storage systems, extending their service life and minimizing inspection intervals.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE

The first high-redshift cavity power measurements of cool-core galaxy clusters with the International LOFAR Telescope

Radio-mode feedback associated with the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at the cores of galaxy clusters injects a large amount of energy into the intracluster medium (ICM), offsetting radiative losses through X-ray emission. This mechanism prevents the ICM from rapidly cooling down and fueling extreme starburst activity as it accretes onto the central galaxies, and it is therefore a key ingredient in the evolution of galaxy clusters. However, the influence and mode of feedback at high redshifts (z ∼ 1) remains largely unknown. Low-frequency sub-arcsecond-resolution radio observations taken with the International LOFAR Telescope have demonstrated their ability to assist X-ray observations with constraining the energy output from the AGNs (or “cavity power”) in galaxy clusters, thereby enabling research at higher redshifts than before. In this pilot project, we tested this hybrid method on a high-redshift (0.6 < z < 1.3) sample of 13 galaxy clusters for the first time with the aim of verifying the performance of this method at these redshifts and providing the first estimates of the cavity power associated with the central AGN for a sample of distant clusters. We were able to detect clear radio lobes in three out of 13 galaxy clusters at redshifts of 0.7 < z < 0.9, and we used these detections in combination with ICM pressures surrounding the radio lobes obtained from standard profiles to calculate the corresponding cavity powers of the AGNs. Combining our results with the literature, the current data appear to suggest that the average cavity power peaked at a redshift ofz ∼ 0.4 and slowly decreases toward higher redshifts. However, we require more and tighter constraints on the cavity volume and a better understanding of our observational systematics to confirm any deviation of the cavity power trend from a constant level.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Copacabana: a probabilistic membership assignment method for galaxy clusters

Cosmological analyses using galaxy clusters in optical/near-infrared photometric surveys require robust characterization of their galaxy content. Precisely determining which galaxies belong to a cluster is crucial. In this paper, we present the COlor Probabilistic Assignment of Clusters And BAyesiaN Analysis (Copacabana) algorithm. Copacabana computes membership probabilities for all galaxies within an aperture centred on the cluster using photometric redshifts, colours, and projected radial probability density functions. We use simulations to validate Copacabana and we show that it achieves up to 89 per cent membership accuracy with a mild dependence on photometric redshift uncertainties and choice of aperture size. We find that the precision of the photometric redshifts has the largest impact on the determination of the membership probabilities followed by the choice of the cluster aperture size. We also quantify how much these uncertainties in the membership probabilities affect the stellar mass–cluster mass scaling relation, a relation that directly impacts cosmology. Using the sum of the stellar masses weighted by membership probabilities (⁠μ * ⁠) as the observable, we find that Copacabana can reach an accuracy of 0.06 dex in the measurement of the scaling relation at low redshift for a Legacy Survey of Space and Time type survey. These results indicate the potential of Copacabana and μ * to be used in cosmological analyses of optically selected clusters in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Power performance and loads characterization of laboratory-scale cross-flow rotors fabricated using additive manufacturing

Tidal energy conversion is a relatively new application for additive manufacturing (AM), where the focus has been on fabricating axial-flow turbine blades. AM techniques add material precisely where it is needed, creating more complex shapes with less waste. Cross-flow rotor geometry presents an opportunity for AM to improve rotor performance by fabricating features that cannot be created economically via conventional manufacturing. The challenges associated with using AM in cross-flow design include water resistance and degradation over time while retaining a level of quality equivalent to conventionally machined parts. In this work, AM materials were tested by environmentally conditioning samples in a seawater tank for 5 months, followed by performance and phase-resolved load testing of laboratory-scale rotors in a hydraulic flume. We found that while metals like titanium and Inconel have excellent performance in marine environments, achieving the desired geometry and performance is difficult. Thermoplastics degraded in seawater but were easier to form into desired geometries and could exceed the performance of an aluminum control rotor. Warping and surface finish were significant detractors from AM rotor performance. These results suggest that the primary benefits of using AM for cross-flow rotors is to quickly fabricate and test unconventional rotor geometries.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

Electron-Deficient Phenazines: Synthesis, Structures, Redox, and Optoelectronic Properties in the Gas Phase, in Solution, and in the Solid State

High-temperature gas-phase reactions of 1,4-C4F8I2 with phenazine (PHNZ) afforded new thermally- and air-stable derivatives with cyclo-C4F8 substituents, viz. 1,2-PHNZ(C4F8), 2,3-PHNZ(C4F8), 1,2:6,7-PHNZ(C4F8)2, 1,2:7,8-PHNZ(C4F8)2, and 1,2:8,9-PHNZ(C4F8)2. Reactions in the presence of Cu powder resulted in reductive-defluorination/aromatization of some of the cyclo-C4F8 substituents to produce 2,3-PHNZ(C4F4), 2,3-PHNZ(C4HF3), and 1,2:6,7-PHNZ(C4F8)(C4F4), which are formally tri- or tetrafluoro derivatives of benzo[a]phenazine. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction structures of these compounds demonstrate the planarity of 2,3-PHNZ(C4F4) and 2,3-PHNZ(C4HF3) and ordered p-stacking in 1,2-PHNZ(C4HF3), 1,2-PHNZ(C4F4), 1,2-PHNZ(C4F8), and 2,3-PHNZ(C4F8). Low-temperature gas-phase photoelectron spectra of the PHNZ(C4F8)1,2 compounds show that they are strong electron acceptors, with the three PHNZ(C4F8)2 isomers having electron affinities exceeding that of C60. Cyclic voltammetry in acetonitrile show that the five PHNZ(C4F8)1,2 compounds exhibit reversible one-electron reductions with large positive shifts in their reduction potentials relative to unsubstituted PHNZ. Spectroelectrochemical absorption and EPR spectra of PHNZ(C4F8)1,2- • anion radicals and extensive DFT calculations revealed the significant role that the different substitution patterns have on determining the optoelectronic properties of the PHNZ(C4F8)1,2 derivatives and PHNZ(C4F8)1,2- • anion radicals. Time-resolved microwave conductivity measurements and photoluminescence spectra of blends of the PHNZ(C4F8)1,2 derivatives with the donor poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) were recorded to assess the possible use of the new compounds in optoelectronic devices.

Balser, Sebastian

Boron Coordination in Multicomponent Glasses: Analytical Models and Machine Learning With Uncertainty

Borosilicate glasses are extensively used in a variety of applications from kitchenware to nuclear waste immobilization due to the strong network formed by the Si-O-B bond that makes it resistant to chemical corrosion and gives it a low thermal expansion. Boron, however, exists in both trigonal BO3 and tetrahedral BO4 bonds in glass systems, which impacts the chemical durability and thermal resistance of the glass, amongst other properties. Boron coordination (N4), or the ratio of the amount of BO4 to BO3 within a glass, may aid in predicting these properties but is difficult to derive without experimental data due to the complexity of impacts from varied glass compositions and processing factors. For this reason, compositional models have been developed to predict boron coordination, but the models typically include a limited number of glass components. To help fill this gap in the models, in this work, a diverse multicomponent glass dataset of 809 glasses is compiled from a literature search, and then a number of analytical and machine learning (ML) models are trained on the dataset. Previously developed modified Bernstein and modified Du Stebbins analytical models were fitted to update parameters with the new dataset. Then, partially Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian process regressor, and heteroskedastic deterministic neural networks were evaluated. The ML models examined all have different strategies to overcome the potential for overfitting as a result of a limited training dataset, and return results that account for model uncertainty, which can be valuable for understanding model reliability. For the first time, cooling rate is introduced as an input parameter for ML models, showing consistent improvements in performance and solidifying the importance of including parameters outside of composition alone for N4 prediction. The machine learning models examined here show promise in accurate predictions of boron coordination in borosilicate glasses, all achieving R2 values of 0.91.

boron coordination

Heat Transfer Fluids as Co‐Diluents in Localized High‐Concentration Electrolytes for High‐Rate Lithium Metal Batteries With Enhanced Safety

Localized high-concentration electrolytes (LHCEs) have been identified as promising electrolyte formulations for lithium metal batteries, due to their effective interphase formation and promotion of compact Li deposition, yet their practical implementation is often limited by reduced ion transport kinetics. In this study, two industrially established fluorinated ethers are identified for the first time in battery research as effective co-diluents as they combine a broad electrochemical stability window with a low viscosity and intrinsic non-flammability. Incorporating these components, commonly used as heat transfer fluids, yields safer, less flammable electrolyte formulations with enhanced ion mobilities. In particular, the ternary co-diluent formulation shows improved ion mobility by reducing the electrolyte's viscosity while limiting excessive ion clustering. Based on the improved electrolyte transport kinetics, lower overvoltages and higher Coulombic efficiencies at current densities ≥ 1 mA cm −2 are achieved with the ternary co-diluent blend, resulting in markedly extended cycle life in an application-oriented zero-excess pouch cell compared with the baseline system. Complementary electrochemical and ex situ analysis of harvested electrodes at moderate current densities reveals no discernible differences in interphase morphology and composition, suggesting enhanced ion mobility as the primary cause of the improved high-rate performance.

electrolyte diluent

Numerical-heating effects in atmospheric pressure streamer discharges simulated with a PIC code

Artificial heating in plasma simulations is a well-known phenomenon which occurs when, among other things, the Debye length is poorly resolved by the simulation mesh. Here, in this work, the degree to which numerical-heating occurs during a simulation of a nanosecond atmospheric pressure streamer discharge is examined. The streamer is simulated using a two-dimensional finite-element, particle-in-cell code Empire, which uses direct simulation Monte Carlo for binary particle interactions. Initially, an estimate of the numerical-heating rate applied to Empire is performed using a simple plasma model. Second, a positive atmospheric pressure streamer discharge simulation is performed to study the effects of numerical heating on plasma density, electron temperature, and streamer velocity. The nominal Debye length is approximately 1 μm and the amount of numerical heating introduced in the simulation is varied by using mesh sizes ranging from 2 μm to 20 μm. A measurable numerical heating quantity is proposed that can be used to estimate the appropriate element size and quantify the numerical-heating that can be expected over the simulation time for an atmospheric pressure streamer. In conclusion while Δx/λ D violations can be an issue it is not likely to be an issue with streamer discharges that are temporally short and occur in environments where collision frequencies are high. This result validates the rationale of grid size choices for a large amount of previously published works where Δx/λ D violation was not clearly addressed. Primary finding of this work is that numerical heating is of minor concern for plasma simulations where electron–neutral collisions are numerous such that multiple collisions can occur within a single plasma period.

Nikic, Dejan [University of New Mexico, Albuquerqu

Direct observation of diamond formation in a shock-compressed high explosive

Understanding the formation timescale and structure of carbonaceous reaction products is critical for modeling the high-pressure equation-of-state of organic materials. We use the National Ignition Facility to shock-compress polycrystalline TATB (C 6 H 6 N 6 O 6 ) samples to ~70–130 GPa and ~4000–5500 K, employing in situ nanosecond X-ray diffraction to probe reaction products and velocimetry to measure transmitted compression wave profiles. Our diffraction data is consistent with the formation of diamond over timescales less than ~60 ns. This represents carbon condensation from a molecular explosive on timescales three times faster than previously reported and the earliest observation of diamond produced from reacting TATB. Reactive flow simulations with explicit chemistry reproduce the observed temporal structure within wave profiles to inform the distribution of P-T states. These findings provide direct evidence of ultrafast diamond formation in a reactive system at extreme conditions and provide new constraints for models of shock and detonation chemistry.

Clarke, Samantha M. [Lawrence Livermore National L

Photovoltage behaviour of p-Sb 2 S 3 photocathodes for hydrogen evolution: effect of n-In 2 S 3 passivation layers

The 1.76 eV band gap of antimony(iii) sulphide (Sb 2 S 3 ) makes this semiconductor material a promising light absorber for photoelectrochemical water splitting, but scalable fabrication approaches to efficient devices are still lacking. Here we show that compact Sb 2 S 3 films on FTO can be obtained by electrochemical growth from aqueous colloidal sulphur and antimony trichloride solutions, followed by mild annealing. These films can be converted into hydrogen evolution photocathodes after coating with In 2 S 3 passivation layers and the addition of Pt proton reduction co-catalysts. For the first time, vibrating Kelvin probe surface photovoltage (VKP-SPV) spectroscopy is used to observe the carrier dynamics in such photoelectrodes. While the bare Sb 2 S 3 films suffer from high surface recombination rates and poor electron extraction, the In 2 S 3 overlayer is found to raise the photovoltage and cathodic photocurrent density, due to passivation of surface defects and formation of a p–n heterojunction. In thick In 2 S 3 films, these benefits are offset by shading and slow electron transfer. Also, we find that O 2 strongly affects the band bending in the Sb 2 S 3 –air and In 2 S 3 –air junctions and their photovoltage. The optimised devices evolve H 2 at 77.5% Faradaic efficiency and with 0.084% applied bias photon-to-current efficiency (ABPE) at 0.12 V vs. RHE. The low ABPE value is attributed to Sb 2 S 3 sub-bandgap defects visible in SPV spectra, the random orientation of Sb 2 S 3 crystallites in the films, which inhibits charge transport, the absence of crystal facets of Sb 2 S 3 , and a detrimental Schottky junction at the FTO|Sb 2 S 3 interface.

de Araújo, Moisés A. [University of California, Da

Oxidation Chemistry of Bicarbonate and Peroxybicarbonate: Implications for Carbonate Management in Energy Storage

Carbonate formation presents a major challenge to energy storage applications based on low-temperature CO 2 electrolysis and recyclable metal–air batteries. While direct electrochemical oxidation of (bi)carbonate represents a straightforward route for carbonate management, knowledge of the feasibility and mechanisms of direct oxidation is presently lacking. Herein, we report the isolation and characterization of the bis(triphenylphosphine)iminium salts of bicarbonate and peroxybicarbonate, thus enabling the examination of their oxidation chemistry. Infrared spectroelectrochemistry combined with time-resolved infrared spectroscopy reveals that the photoinduced oxidation of HCO 3 – by an Ir(III) photoreagent results in the generation of the short-lived bicarbonate radical in less than 50 ns. The highly acidic bicarbonate radical undergoes proton transfer with HCO 3 – to furnish the carbonate radical anion and H 2 CO 3 , leading to the eventual release of CO 2 and H 2 O, thus accounting for the appearance of H 2 O and CO 2 in both electrochemical and photochemical oxidation experiments. Here, the back reaction of the carbonate radical subsequently oxidizes the Ir(II) photoreagent, leading to carbonate. In the absence of this back reaction, dimerization of the carbonate radical provides entry into peroxybicarbonate, which we show undergoes facile oxidation to O 2 and CO 2 . Together, the results reported identify tangible pathways for the design of catalysts for the management of carbonate in energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Surface deposition of nanometer scale carbon structures on Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ using a low-cost scanning electron microscope

In this work, we investigate optically active nanostructures on Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ (BSCCO). The nanostructures are constructed from carbon nanocrystals formed using the electron beam of a scanning electron microscope to locally decompose residual hydrocarbons at the BSCCO surface. Atomic force microscopy is used to characterize the dimensions of these structures as a function of beam exposure time. This technique has been used to induce localized intercalation to form carbon nanoparticles up to tens of nanometers into a variety of 2D materials. Cross-sectional scanning transmission electron microscopy in BSCCO shows the presence of these carbon deposits on the surface, but there is no evidence they penetrate into the BSCCO substrate. Therefore, this technique is not suitable for localized intercalation in BSCCO, and it does have promise as a cost-effective approach to pattern nanometer scale etch stops.

2D materials

Machine learning pipeline for denoising low signal-to-noise ratio and out-of-distribution transmission electron microscopy datasets

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) is crucial for observing material’s structural and morphological evolution at Angstrom scales, but the electron beam can alter these processes. Devices such as CMOS-based direct-electron detectors operating in electron-counting mode can be utilized to substantially reduce the electron dosage. However, the resulting images often lead to a low signal-to-noise ratio, which requires frame integration that sacrifices temporal resolution. Several machine learning (ML) models have been recently developed to successfully denoise HRTEM images. Yet, these models are often computationally expensive, and their inference speeds on GPUs are outpaced by the imaging speed of advanced detectors, precluding in situ analysis. Furthermore, the performance of these denoising models on datasets with imaging conditions that deviate from the training datasets has not been evaluated. To mitigate these gaps, we propose a new self-supervised ML denoising pipeline specifically designed for time-series HRTEM images. This pipeline integrates a blind-spot convolution neural network with pre-processing and post-processing steps, including drift correction and low-pass filtering. Results demonstrate that our model outperforms various other ML and non-ML denoising methods in noise reduction and contrast enhancement, leading to improved visual clarity of atomic features. Additionally, the model is drastically faster than U-Net-based ML models and demonstrates excellent out-of-distribution generalization. The model’s computational inference speed is in the order of milliseconds per image, rendering it suitable for application in in-situ HRTEM experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Storing Affordability: Battery Storage as an Asset to Reduce Data Center Cost Shifts

This report examines how battery energy storage systems (BESS) can help utilities accommodate large load growth while protecting affordability for existing ratepayers. Rapid growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is straining the U.S. grid. Furthermore, many new data centers are entering rural markets, which could offer economic benefits but may also pose implementation challenges for smaller utilities. At the same time, retail electricity prices are increasing faster than inflation, elevating customer affordability as a key challenge. While data centers have not been the primary driver of increases in residential prices to date, they have pushed wholesale energy and capacity prices higher in several markets. Fundamental utility cost-allocation principles show that data center growth can be rate-positive for existing customers only if new peak demand grows faster than the costs a utility must incur to serve it. Several factors, including a utility’s degree of wholesale market exposure, forecast uncertainty and stranded-asset risk, and tariff design can determine the outcome of load growth on retail rates. Energy storage can make several affordability contributions in the face of this landscape of uncertainty and market volatility, including deferral of higher-cost grid investments through improved utilization of existing assets and flexibility of new large loads, insulation from volatile wholesale prices through peak shaving, and reliability support to address grid risks stemming from the behavior of AI data center loads. Different potential BESS deployment pathways—utility-scale front-of-the-meter systems, aggregated small-scale storage installations, and data center-sited behind-the-meter storage—are compared against each other and against conventional capacity alternatives. This framework is intended as a conceptual resource to utilities, particularly smaller public utilities with rural service territories, who may be considering the role that energy storage can play in insulating existing ratepayers from data center cost shifts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE