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Towards an improved understanding of the Antarctic coastal zone and its contribution to future global sea level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the coming centuries. The Antarctic Ice Sheet remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Insufficient knowledge of bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, but is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography datasets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation dataset of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and enhancing predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka

The Role of Asparagine as a Gatekeeper Residue in the Selective Binding of Rare Earth Elements by Lanthanide‐Binding Peptides

Abstract Lanthanide‐binding tag (LBT) peptides selectively complex lanthanide cations (Ln 3+ ) in their binding pockets and are promising for lanthanide separation. However, designing LBTs that selectively target specific Ln 3+ cations remains a challenge due to limited molecular‐level understanding and control of interactions within the lanthanide‐binding pocket. In this study, we reveal that the N5 asparagine residue acts as a gatekeeper in the binding pocket, resulting in a 100‐fold selectivity for smaller Lu 3+ over larger La 3+ cations. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and molecular dynamics simulations show that the N5 residue weakly binds to the larger La 3+ cation, permitting H 2 O molecules inside the pocket. For the smaller Lu 3+ cations, the N5 residue forms an inter‐arm hydrogen bond with the E14 glutamic acid residue, locking the Lu 3+ cation in the pocket and preventing H 2 O infiltration. Mutating the N5 asparagine to a D5 aspartic acid prevents such a hydrogen bond, eliminating the gatekeeping mechanism and precipitously reducing selectivity. The resulting binding affinity to Ln 3+ cations is non‐monotonic but generally increases with cation size. These results suggest a molecular design paradigm: the reduced affinity for larger lanthanides is due to open pocket conformations, while the selectivity of smaller Ln 3+ cations over larger ones is due to the gatekeeping hydrogen bond.

Chemistry

Radio Metric Errors Due to Mismatch and Offset Between a DSN Antenna Beam and the Beam of a Troposphere Calibration Instrument

Two components of the error of a troposphere calibration measurement were quantified by theoretical calculations. The first component is a beam mismatch error, which occurs when the calibration instrument senses a conical volume different from the cylindrical volume sampled by a Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna. The second component is a beam offset error, which occurs if the calibration instrument is not mounted on the axis of the DSN antenna. These two error sources were calculated for both delay (e.g., VLBI) and delay rate (e.g., Doppler) measurements. The beam mismatch error for both delay and delay rate drops rapidly as the beamwidth of the troposphere calibration instrument (e.g., a water vapor radiometer or an infrared Fourier transform spectrometer) is reduced. At a 10-deg elevation angle, the instantaneous beam mismatch error is 1.0 mm for a 6-deg beamwidth and 0.09 mm for a 0.5-deg beam (these are the full angular widths of a circular beam with uniform gain out to a sharp cutoff). Time averaging for 60-100 sec will reduce these errors by factors of 1.2-2.2. At a 20-deg elevation angle, the lower limit for current Doppler observations, the beam-mismatch delay rate error is an Allan standard deviation over 100 sec of 1.1 x 10 -14 with a 4-deg beam and 1.3 x 10 -15 for a 0.5-deg beam. A 50-m beam offset would result in a fairly modest (compared to other expected error sources) delay error (less than or equal to 0.3 mm for 60-sec integrations at any elevation angle is greater than or equal to 6 deg). However, the same offset would cause a large error in delay rate measurements (e.g., an Allan standard deviation of 1.2 x 10 -14 over 100 sec at a 20-deg elevation angle), which would dominate over other known error sources if the beamwidth is 2 deg or smaller. An on-axis location is essential for accurate troposphere calibration of delay rate measurements. A half-power beamwidth (for a beam with a tapered gain profile) of 1.2 deg or smaller is desired for calibration of all types of radio metrics. A water-vapor radiometer calibration beam of this size with very low sidelobes would require a clear aperture antenna with a diameter of at least 1.5 m if the primary water vapor sensing channel were in the 20-22 GHz range.

R P Linfield

Lubricating Properties of Ceramic-Bonded Calcium Fluoride Coatings on Nickel-Base Alloys From 75° to 1900° F

The endurance life and the friction coefficient of ceramic-bonded calcium fluoride (CaF2) coatings on nickel-base alloys were determined at temperatures from 75° to 1900° F. The specimen configuration consisted of a hemispherical rider (3/16-in. rad.) sliding against the flat surface of a rotating disk. Increasing the ambient temperature (up to 1500° F) or the sliding velocity generally reduced the friction coefficient and improved coating life. Base-metal selection was critical above 1500° F. For instance, cast Inconel sliding against coated Inconel X was lubricated effectively to 1500° F, but at 1600° F severe blistering of the coatings occurred. However, good lubrication and adherence were obtained for René 41 sliding against coated René 41 at temperatures up to 1900° F; no blisters developed, coating wear life was fairly good, and the rider wear rate was significantly lower than for the unlubricated metals . Friction coefficients were 0.12 at 1500° F, 0.15 at 1700° F, and 0.17 at 1800° and 1900° F. Because of its ready availability, Inconel X appears to be the preferred substrate alloy for applications in which the temperature does not exceed 1500° F. René 41 would have to be used in applications involving higher temperatures. Improved coating life was derived by either preoxidizing the substrate metals prior to the coating application or by applying a very thin (<0.0002 in.) burnished and sintered overlay to the surface of the coating. Preoxidation did not affect the friction coefficient. The overlay generally resulted i n a higher friction coefficient than that obtained without the overlay. The combination of both modifications resulted in longer coating life and in friction coefficients intermediate between those obtained with either modification alone.

Nickel alloy

Cost and Carbon Intensity Implications of Coprocessing Sustainable Aviation Fuel at Petroleum Refineries

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will play a critical role in decarbonizing the aviation industry. Among SAF production pathways, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) stands out for its scalability, supported by abundant feedstock availability and a well-established bioethanol industry. However, significant reductions in SAF carbon intensity (CI) require the use of future feedstocks (e.g., cellulosic) whose adoption is hindered by high capital costs for feedstock processing and ethanol upgrading. Here, we evaluate the financial viability and environmental implications of integrating an ATJ SAF biorefinery within a petroleum refinery, utilizing miscanthus and switchgrass as example feedstocks. Three scenarios are evaluated: standalone (benchmark), colocated, and repurposing (coprocessing SAF within the petroleum refinery). Results show repurposing reduces baseline capital costs by 36% and SAF minimum selling price (MSP) by 12% to 8.14 USD·gal −1 ; the superior performance of repurposing is consistent across both feedstocks. Integration has a limited effect on SAF CI, which remains stable across scenarios, whereas using cellulosic feedstocks reduces CI by over 70% relative to corn, with baseline values of 17.01 g CO 2 e· MJ −1 for miscanthus and 12.23 g CO 2 e·MJ −1 for switchgrass. Global sensitivity analysis reveals MSP declines with greater coprocessing levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Optimization of X-ray Absorbers for High-Resolution TES Detectors in NewATHENA X-IFU

NewATHENA’s X-ray Integral Field Unit (X-IFU) uses a large-format array of Transition Edge Sensor (TES) microcalorimeters coupled with absorbers made of gold and bismuth providing 4 eV FWHM resolution up to 7 keV in the 0.2- 12 keV band. X-ray absorbers must be thick enough for photon absorption, maintain low heat capacity for energy resolution, and have good thermalization properties. The X-IFU requires total Quantum Efficiency (QE) of 96%, 87%, and 63% at 1, 7, and 9.5 keV, respectively. Optimal thicknesses are 1.05 µm gold and 5.5 µm bismuth to achieve 0.731 pJ/K at 90 mK and 87% QE at 7 keV. While typical TES absorbers are 3-4 µm thick, producing the required 5.5 µm Bi absorbers via standard electroplating creates enlarged grains and surface roughness. The increased roughness and grain size variability produced with our standard recipe have resulted in instances of 1) low energy spectral tails 2) spectral broadening of the energy resolution and 3) thermal shorts between pixels when a large grain bridges the gap between absorbers. In this study, we have introduced a new fabrication process and altered the morphology of the thick Bi through changes in the electroplating process. The process changes are intended to address all three issues as well as reduce particulate contamination observed on the finished detector arrays.

Absorber

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1

Molecules to Masterpieces: Bridging Materials Science and the Arts

Art and materials innovation have always been intertwined, dating back to the earliest human creations. In modern times, however, the increasing specialization of materials science often restricts artists' access to cutting-edge materials. Here, the materials science aspects of an art-science collaboration between artist Kimsooja and the Wiesner Lab at Cornell University, are detailed. The project involves the development of a custom-made iridescent block copolymer coating by means of self-assembly, originally applied to transparent window panels of a façade for the ≈14 m tall art installation: A Needle Woman: Galaxy Is a Memory, Earth is a Souvenir by artist Kimsooja. After several exhibitions in the US and Europe, the installation is now part of the permanent museum collection at Yorkshire Sculpture Park in Wakefield, UK. Full characterization of the solution blade-cast coatings show shear aligned, standing up lamellar morphologies that behave as volume-phase gratings with periodicities between 300 and 400 nm. Coatings are also applied to foldable (origami) paper and converted into iridescent porous ceramic materials. Furthermore, it is hoped this work inspires and informs communities across materials science, the arts, and architecture.

Architectural nanomaterials

Modern insights into the mechanisms of neptunium oxalate decomposition

Neptunium oxalate (Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O) is a historically relevant solid phase used in nuclear processing as a precursor for neptunium dioxide (NpO 2 ). Although Np oxalate has been synthesized and used for NpO 2 production for decades, the thermal decomposition mechanism of this phase remains poorly understood and has not been evaluated in over 30 years. Conflicting reports in historical literature suggest either a direct conversion from anhydrous oxalate to NpO 2 or a decomposition that includes the formation of Np carbonate or oxidized Np intermediate phases. In this work, we reexamine the decomposition pathway of Np(C 2 O 4 ) 2 ·6H 2 O using thermal analysis coupled with evolved gas analysis and temperature-dependent Raman spectroscopy to elucidate decomposition mechanisms and intermediate phases using modern analytical techniques. Thermal analysis revealed a three-stage decomposition process, including dehydration below 200 °C, oxalate breakdown between 170 and 370 °C, and NpO 2 formation by 500 °C. However, an unidentified plateau in the thermal data was observed during measurements. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the stages of decomposition, and in the analysis of potential intermediate phases, no carbonate phases or Np 2 O 5 were identified. Raman data suggest that residual oxalate or nonstoichiometric oxide are present during decomposition before pure NpO 2 is formed. These findings clarify aspects of the Np oxalate decomposition mechanism and address longstanding discrepancies in the literature, with a specific focus on Np-specific materials chemistry.

Lawson, Kathryn M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Coma Physics of an Interstellar Object: JWST Spatial-Spectral Mapping of 3I/ATLAS

We report a survey of molecular emission from cometary volatiles using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) toward interstellar object 3I/ATLAS carried out on UT 2025 December 22 and 23 at a heliocentric distance (\rh{}) of $2.37-2.41$ au. These measurements of CO, \ce{CO2}, \ce{H2O}, \ce{CH3OH}, and \ce{CH4} sampled molecular chemistry in 3I/ATLAS as it receded from its encounter with our Sun and entered the vicinity of the \ce{H2O} ice line --- the region between \rh{} = $2-3$ au where the temperature becomes too low for H$_2$O to vigorously sublime and CO and \ce{CO2} begin to control the overall activity. CO was the most abundant molecule, followed by \ce{H2O} and \ce{CO2}, whose molecular abundances with respect to CO were $(40.5\pm3.1)\%$ and ($41.6\pm0.3)\%$, respectively. This work presents spatial-spectral maps of column density and rotational temperature as a function of distance from the nucleus for all detected species. The spatial distributions of both quantities were highly anisotropic for the apolar species in the coma of 3I/ATLAS, yet were more nearly symmetric for the polar molecules. These results demonstrate how volatiles were segregated in the nucleus ices of 3I/ATLAS and reveal heating and cooling mechanisms in its coma. Derived maps of the ortho-to-para ratio (OPR) for \ce{H2O} were flat with increasing distance from the nucleus and consistent with a coma-averaged value $\mathrm{OPR}=2.7\pm0.2$, slightly less than the expected equilibrium value of three.

Nathan X Roth

Swamp Works Regolith Compaction Technologies

While the level of compaction below the lunar surface increases quickly after only a few cm of depth, in many cases during a construction mission there will be a need to excavate and transport regolith to a new location for cut-and-fill or horizontal construction of structures such as berms. In these cases to achieve high levels of bulk density, compaction must be per-formed. Additionally, in some cases surface technolo-gies such as systems that sinter/melt the surface may desire the maximum possible compaction at the sur-face to improve melting/heating performance and the final material strength properties. Kennedy Space Center’s (KSC) Swamp Works has developed two means of compaction, lunar and mar-tian compaction. Planetary Autonomous Compaction Technology (PACT) which is part of the Multifunction End Effector for Regolith Compaction Acquisition and Transfer (MEERCAT [1]) robotic arm end effector system’s capabilities and the Site Preparation Tooling for Operations on Mobility Platforms (STOMP [2]) vibratory roller compactor. PACT on MEERCAT has been demonstrated to a TRL 5 and STOMP to a TRL 4 in ambient testing. The results of PACT on MEERCAT and STOMP testing will be shared with results for various simulants including BP-1, ICN-LHT-1G (aka CSM-LHT-1G), RDW-LHT-1GH (a simulant developed for the Mason Tipping Point to match characteristics of ICN-LHT-1G), and Exolith LHS-1E. This will also include discus-sions on methods used to verify relative density before and after compaction and means to verify density effects below depth. To calculate relative density, maximum and minimum densities for simulants were taken from literature [3] [4] [5] and additional lab test-ing (publication in work).

vibration

High-Intensity UV Exposure for the Rapid Screening of Silicon Photovoltaic Architectures

Advanced Si photovoltaic architectures incorporate different materials and processing pathways that influence degradation modes. Ultraviolet-induced degradation (UVID) is an understudied degradation mode for advanced cell architectures and is of increasing concern to industry due to growing adoption of UV-transparent encapsulation and bifacial technologies. In order to adopt new and evolving technologies confidently, novel component materials and processing techniques must be evaluated and designed for long-term stability, in addition to the conventional design focus on efficiency. In this work, a study protocol framework is presented for the rapid screening of unencapsulated devices against UVID. Unencapsulated passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) devices were aged under different UV irradiance intensities and measured via conventional nondestructive electrical characterization methods to assess performance degradation. Based on the results, protocol efficacy and recommendations for further study are discussed. As a result, this work is part of a broader effort to develop rapid screening processes that cut across architectures and exposure conditions to aid module manufacturers in vetting new materials choices for long-term stability.

Accelerated exposure

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 30, No. 3, July-September 1989]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 325 Safety of Framatome Advanced Nuclear Steam Supply Systems Designs by J. A. Charles and D. Lange, 333 Book Review of Nuclear Accidents: Intervention Levels for the Protection of the Public by H. B. Piper; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 335 Living PRA Computer Systems by S. C. Dinsmore and H.-P. Balfanz, 343 Summary of ICAP Assessments of RELAP5/MOD2 by W. E. Driskell and R. G. Hanson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 352 Thermal Performance Monitoring System at Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant by H.-J. Chao, Y.-P. Lin, G.-H. Jou, L.-Y. Liao, and Y.-B. Chen; DESIGN FEATURES: 358 Warning Systems for Nuclear Power Plant Emergencies by J. H. Sorensen and D. S. Mileti; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 371 Activities Related to Waste Management Compiled by E G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 382 Steam Generator Tube Performance: Experience with Water-Cooled Nuclear Power Reactors During 1985 by O. S. Tatone and R. L. Tapping, 400 Systems Interaction Analyses: Concepts and Techniques (Part II) by M. D. Muhlheim and G. A. Murphy, 413 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 416 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 440 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E G. Silver, 460 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 466 Status of Power-Reactor Licensing Activities Compiled by E G. Silver, 470 Proposed Rule Changes as of Mar. 31, 1989; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 334 Proceedings Published, 351 CEC Seminar on Methods and Codes for Assessing the Off-Site Consequences of Nuclear Accidents, 357 Short Course on Multiphase Flow and Heat Transfer: Bases and Applications in A: The Nuclear Power Industry B: The Process Industries, 357 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 478 International Topical Meeting on the Safety, Status, and Future of Non-Commercial Reactors and Irradiation Facilities, 475 The Authors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Understanding and Controlling Hybrid Electric Gas Turbine Engine Transient Dynamics

The electrification of the gas turbine engine is known to increase the flexibility of aircraft architectures by enabling the generation of electrical power to distribute to other electrically based, thrust producing subsystems. It also has potential for direct performance benefits in the gas turbine engine itself, both at steady state and dynamically. Although the design focus of the gas turbine engine performance is primarily at steady state, it is often the instabilities occurring during transients that cause disequilibrium and constrain performance improvements. Instabilities arise due to the disequilibrium of the energy storage mechanisms within the traditional engine system and likewise for the electrified engine system. The primary energy storage mechanisms in the traditional system are the rotational inertia, gas path volumes, the thermal masses that make up the mechanical structure, and now, the electrical power system will provide additional contributions. Understanding the effect each of these energy storage mechanisms has on the others and controlling them appropriately allows for the suppression of state changes within the turbomachinery components to the degree that the components remain near steady state, thus reducing the disequilibrium within the system. The ability to tightly regulate the state changes of turbomachinery components, such as the compressor, minimizes the excursion of the compressor operating point from the operating line (operability), allowing for higher performing, more efficient compressor designs by decreasing the amount of stall margin needed for safe engine power level changes. Preliminary studies with the electrification of the turbine engine have shown that this is possible, and this concept can lead to design trades benefitting engine performance, weight, and volume. This paper explores in detail the energy storage mechanisms and control approaches for coordinating their state changes, and ultimately proposes that a higher performing, more efficient compressor design can result.

transient dynamics

Coercivity enhancement in hematite/permalloy heterostructures across the Morin transition

Interfacial effects between antiferromagnetic (AFM) and ferromagnetic (FM) materials have long been a center of magnetism studies. Aside from the exchange bias occurring at the AFM/FM interface, controlling the coercivity is another significant topic in magnetic recordings. The coercivity of FM materials is often determined through varying grain size, alloy composition, density of defects, etc., which is set during material growth and offers limited room for modification after growth. Hematite (α - Fe 2 O 3 ) is an AFM material that undergoes a temperature-controlled spin-flip transition, the so-called Morin transition. This transition gives an extra degree of freedom making hematite an intriguing component to study the exchange coupling when interfaced with an FM material. Here, in this work, changes in the magnetic properties of soft magnetic permalloy (Ni 81 Fe 19 , or Py) thin films grown on hematite were studied across the Morin transition. Surprisingly, these samples showed a remarkable change in coercivity during the Morin transition. We attribute this effect to the magnetic domain mixture of hematite during the Morin transition. Our findings present a novel method of controlling the coercivity of plain ferromagnetic thin films.

Antiferromagnet

Derivation of low-energy Hamiltonians for heavy-fermion materials

Here, by utilizing a multiorbital periodic Anderson model with parameters obtained from ab initio band structure calculations, combined with degenerate perturbation theory, we derive effective Kondo-Heisenberg and spin Hamiltonians that capture the interaction among the effective magnetic moments. This derivation encompasses fluctuations via both nonmagnetic 4⁢𝑓 0 and magnetic 4⁢𝑓 2 virtual states, and its accuracy is confirmed through comparison with experimental data obtained from CeIn 3 . The significant agreement observed between experimental results and theoretical predictions underscores the potential of deriving minimal models from first-principles calculations for achieving a quantitative description of 4⁢𝑓 materials. Moreover, our microscopic derivation unveils the underlying origin of anisotropy in the exchange interaction between Kramers doublets, shedding light on the conditions under which this anisotropy may be weak compared to the isotropic contribution.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Observations of Offshore Low‐Level Jets Off the U.S. East Coast Reveal Systematic Biases in ERA5 and HRRR

Low-level jets (LLJs)—wind speed maxima typically occurring a few hundred meters above the surface—are common off the U.S. East Coast and influence many atmospheric processes with societal importance, including cloud formation, aviation safety, and search-and-rescue. However, their vertical structure and frequency remain poorly quantified due to limited offshore observations. This study presents new scanning Doppler LiDAR and infrared spectroradiometer data from the 2024 summer deployment of an offshore barge during the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 3. These coupled wind and temperature profiles provide unprecedented resolution to assess LLJ behavior and model performance. LLJs occurred in over 21% of observed profiles, with a weak diurnal preference for nighttime and early morning hours and maximum winds typically near 300 m. Both ERA5 and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh analysis underestimate jet wind speeds and misrepresent the boundary layer thermal structure. These results highlight persistent model biases and the critical need for high-resolution offshore observations.

17 WIND ENERGY