Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “grey-box predictive energy model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,692 records · Page 28

Integrated Simulation of Weld Residual Stress Evolution and Crack Propagation Using XFEM

Nuclear power plant components operate in environments that promote multiple degradation mecha- nisms, several of which involve crack initiation and growth. An ongoing effort in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is developing a general capability within the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework for simulating three-dimensional crack growth under a range of driving conditions, including fatigue, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), brittle fracture, and stress-relaxation cracking. This report demonstrates an end-to-end workflow that uses this capability to model weld-residual-stress-driven SCC in the J-groove weld of a pressurized-water reactor control rod drive mechanism penetration in the vessel head. The workflow consists of a thermomechanical welding simulation with temperature-dependent plasticity, followed by cooldown to ambient conditions, and a restart of the simulation using the MOOSE extended finite element method (XFEM) module to propagate a three-dimensional crack through the residual stress field. New welding capabilities were developed to properly initialize newly activated elements in the weld region, and robustness improvements were made to the mesh-based algorithm for defining cutting planes in the 3D XFEM algorithm, allowing it to handle complex crack fronts and stress fields. Together these advances allowed the simulated SCC crack to grow from an initial elliptical flaw in the weld, across the weld, through the tube wall, and almost to the triple point (where the weld, tube, and reactor pressure vessel head intersect) over roughly 36 years of simulated service. These results demonstrate a workflow that can be extended to fully three-dimensional welding simulations and more complex crack interaction problems.

42 - ENGINEERING

Hubble Space Telescope Battery Capacity Update

Orbital battery performance for the Hubble Space Telescope is discussed and battery life is predicted which supports decision to replace orbital batteries by 2009-2010 timeframe. Ground characterization testing of cells from the replacement battery build is discussed, with comparison of data from battery capacity characterization with cell studies of Cycle Life and 60% Stress Test at the Naval Weapons Surface Center (NWSC)-Crane, and cell Cycle Life testing at the Marshal Space Flight Center (MSFC). The contents of this presentation includes an update to the performance of the on-orbit batteries, as well as a discussion of the HST Service Mission 4 (SM4) batteries manufactured in 1996 and activated in 2000, and a second set of SM4 backup replacement batteries which began manufacture Jan 11, 2007, with delivery scheduled for July 2008.

Hollandsworth, Roger

Evidence of Free-Bound Transitions in Warm Dense Matter and Their Impact on Equation-of-State Measurements

Warm dense matter (WDM) is now routinely created and probed in laboratories around the world, providing unprecedented insights into conditions achieved in stellar atmospheres, planetary interiors, and inertial confinement fusion experiments. However, the interpretation of these experiments is often filtered through models with systematic errors that are difficult to quantify. Due to the simultaneous presence of quantum degeneracy and thermal excitation, transitions in which free electrons are de-excited into thermally unoccupied bound states transferring momentum and energy to a scattered x-ray photon become viable. Here we show that such free-bound transitions are a particular feature of WDM and vanish in the limits of cold and hot temperatures. The inclusion of these transitions into the analysis of recent X-ray Thomson Scattering experiments on WDM at the National Ignition Facility and the Linac Coherent Light Source is required to obtain a physically consistent temperature from the Chihara decomposition. This interpretation is corroborated by agreement with a recently developed model-free thermometry technique and presents an important step for precisely characterizing and understanding the complex WDM state of matter.

Boehme, M [HZDR Dresden]

Process-level cost analysis of hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace structural components

Hybrid manufacturing is a promising route for producing complex aerospace components, yet systematic cost benchmarking across multiple additive-subtractive pathways remains limited. This study presents a comprehensive process-based cost analysis of seven hybrid manufacturing routes, including laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF), powder- and wire-directed energy deposition (DED), wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), additive friction stir deposition (AFSD), metal binder jetting (MBJ), and agility forging, followed by scanning and finish machining. Parametric cost models incorporating direct material, labor, and energy costs were developed. L-PBF results are discussed in detail for a pickle fork component and directly compared with commercial pricing. Across all hybrid routes, labor emerged as the dominant cost driver, contributing more than 70% of total manufacturing cost in some cases. AFSD exhibited the lowest cost for aluminum components, with MBJ being its 316 L stainless steel counterpart, after accounting for geometric scaling. Benchmarking against industrial quotes suggests that hybrid manufacturing can achieve cost levels comparable to those of commercial services, although labor-intensive processes exhibit greater deviation. The analysis highlights automation of material handling, setup, and supervision as key opportunities for improving economic competitiveness. Overall, the proposed framework provides a quantitative basis for evaluating and optimizing hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace applications.

Baruah, Sweta [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000174256207)

International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spacecraft battery performance update

January 26, 1987 marks the ninth inflight aniversary of the IUE spacecraft, launched into an eccentric synchronous orbit. The orbital path has subjected the spacecraft to 18 solar eclipse seasons since launch. Nine years of inflight operations culminate a major milestone for battery support to a spacecraft, which is well in excess of the initial 3 year design life. A brief outline of events, power system characteristics, and papers presented a previous battery workshops are provided. The IUE battery cell performance is excellent with the exception of the third electrode anomaly and temperature delta between batteries. Data indicates that battery depth-of-discharge (DOD) may be more critical to extend battery life than small operational temperature deltas between batteries. It is predicted that several additional years of battery life may be obtained by a reduction in operational battery DOD.

Tiller, Smith E.

Ferrimagnetism of ultracold fermions in a multiband Hubbard system

Strongly correlated materials feature multiple electronic orbitals, which are crucial to accurately understanding their many-body properties. In such multiband models, quantum interference can lead to flat energy bands with large degeneracy that gives rise to itinerant magnetic phases. Here, we report on signatures of a ferrimagnetic state realized in a Lieb lattice with ultracold fermions, characterized by antialigned magnetic moments with antiferromagnetic correlations, and concomitant with a finite spin polarization. The signatures remain robust when increasing repulsive interactions from the weakly interacting to the Heisenberg regime and emerge when continuously tuning the lattice unit cell from a square to a Lieb geometry. Our flexible approach paves the way toward exploring exotic phases, such as quantum spin liquids in kagome lattices and heavy fermion behavior in Kondo models.

Lebrat, Martin [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (Unit

Design and Realization of Ohmic and Schottky Interfaces for Oxide Electronics

Understanding band alignment and charge transfer at complex oxide interfaces is critical to tailoring and utilizing their diverse functionality. Toward this goal, both Ohmic- and Schottky-like charge transfers at oxide/oxide semiconductor/metal interfaces are designed and experimentally validated. A method for predicting band alignment and charge transfer in ABO 3 perovskites is utilized, where previously established rules for simple semiconductors fail. The prototypical systems chosen are the rare class of oxide metals, SrBO 3 with B = V–Ta, when interfaced with the multifaceted semiconducting oxide, SrTiO 3 . For B = Nb and Ta, it is confirmed that a large accumulation of charge occurs in SrTiO 3 due to the higher energy Nb and Ta states relative to Ti. Furthermore, this gives rise to a high mobility metallic interface, which is an ideal epitaxial oxide/oxide Ohmic contact. On the contrary, for B = V, there is no charge transfer into the SrTiO 3 interface, which serves as a highly conductive epitaxial gate metal. Going beyond these specific cases, this work opens the door to integrating the vast phenomena of ABO 3 perovskites into a wide range of practical devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery

Systematic determination of a material’s magnetic ground state from first principles

Abstract We present a self-consistent method based on first-principles calculations to determine the magnetic ground state of materials, regardless of their dimensionality. Our methodology is founded on satisfying the stability conditions derived from the linear spin wave theory (LSWT) by optimizing the magnetic structure iteratively. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by successfully predicting the experimental magnetic structures of NiO, FePS 3 , FeP, MnF 2 , FeCl 2 , and CuO. In each case, we compared our results with available experimental data and existing theoretical calculations reported in the literature. Finally, we discuss the validity of the method and the possible extensions.

Chemistry

Mapping the Microhardness of Al Matrix in U-7Mo/Al Dispersion Fuels at Medium and High Burn-up by in situ Nanoindentation

The mechanical degradation of the Al matrix in U-7Mo dispersion fuels was detected after irradiation in previous studies, but more details of the degradation mechanism are not clear yet to clarify the root cause. In this study, microhardness mapping in fresh and irradiated U-7Mo dispersion fuels coated with ZrN, with burn-up of 3.35 × 10 21 and 6.28 × 10 21 f/cm 3 , are measured to reveal the hardening of the Al matrix as a function of distance to fuel particles. Micro cubes were pulled by plasma focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy and tested by in situ nanoindenter with Berkovitch tip. Size effects are measured in medium and high burn-up samples. The higher burn-up specimen exhibits a more pronounced size effect when indent load is lower than 20 mN. Size effect correction models are also calculated by plots fitting, which predicts the true microhardness without size effect. Results shows that the hardness of the Al matrix near the ZrN coating has the highest value, then decreases moving away from the coating and become stable when the distance reaches ∼10 µm. The hardness starts increasing again getting closer to the next fuel particle, which makes the hardness distribution between two fuel particles to be “U” shape.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE

Comparing the fluorination of Pb+ and Po+: insights into p-block relativistic effects for superheavy elements

It is expected that the chemical properties of the heaviest of the superheavy elements (SHEs, = 113 – 118) do not align with what is suggested by their current positions on the periodic table. Specifically, the onset of significant relativistic effects, including increased spin–orbit splitting of the p-orbitals may lead to enhanced stability of low-oxidation states. Notably, it is predicted that flerovium ( = 114) may exhibit pseudo-noble gas behavior from a electron configuration that acts as an ‘inert pair’. Even though it is expected that the – splitting becomes pronounced toward the end of the p-block’s sixth row, there is currently limited experimental evidence to confirm its extent or impact. Here, the production of gas-phase lead ( = 82) and polonium ( = 84) fluoride cations (PbF and PoF ) were compared to elucidate differences in accessible oxidation states. The PoF and PbF species were produced and identified with the FIONA spectrometer at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 88-Inch Cylctron Facility. Polonium showed notably different fluorination chemistry than lead, producing PoF and PoF as primary products compared to lead’s PbF and PbF . The distribution of PoF products observed offer insights as to the role of spin–orbit splitting for polonium. Similar studies of superheavy elements would elucidate the accessibility of their low-oxidation states as well as to inform chemical predictions for eighth-row elements not yet discovered.

Pore, Jennifer L [Nuclear Science Division, Lawren

Mechanics of Preloaded Bolt Tensile Loading With Focus on Load Introduction Factor

The bolt tensile and joint separation loads are directly influenced by the locations at which the external loads enter the clamped members of a preloaded bolted joint (PBJ) and the associated load-paths through the joint. This physical load introduction mechanism affecting the bolt tensile loading is typically represented in the bolt tensile load equation, in part, by a load introduction factor (LIF), which was shown by H.M. Lee of Marshall Spaceflight Center to be a natural product of the bolt tensile load equation using a linear spring stiffness model. This LIF, being a function of load-path stiffness, has subsequently been denoted as the stiffness-based LIF (SBLIF), providing a framework to calculate the LIF using whatever load-path stiffness approximations are appropriate. Expanding upon the work of Lee, it is shown that the SBLIF and the joint stiffness factor are functions of the stiffnesses of the same load-paths and regions within a PBJ, and thus they should not be treated as independent variables. Mathematical expressions for the SBLIF are presented. Comparisons are shown between the analytically calculated SBLIF, the analytically calculated geometric LIF (GLIF), which is a simple clamped-member thickness ratio, the experimentally derived LIF, and the LIF determined by finite element analysis (FEA). Using experiment and FEA as a benchmark, the SBLIF, using traditional load-path stiffness approximations, enables a more accurate prediction of bolt tensile loading than the GLIF, although it can be unconservative near joint separation. The GLIF generally attributes more of the externally applied tensile load to the bolt than does the SBLIF, potentially resulting in heavier and/or more costly bolted joints. Mathematical relationships between the SBLIF and the GLIF are developed. Supplemental material is provided in the appendixes where the historical practice of using the joint compressive stiffness in place of the joint tensile stiffness is evaluated. The appendixes include step-by-step examples demonstrating the calculation of the SBLIF using traditional stiffness approximations and conclude with the development of the joint diagram in terms of the SBLIF, culminating into formulas for the key features of a joint diagram, which is useful for programming.

Load Path

Mariner Mars 1971 battery design, test, and flight performance

The design, integration, fabrication, test results, and flight performance of the battery system for the Mariner Mars spacecraft launched in May 1971 are presented. The battery consists of 26 20-Ah hermetically sealed nickel-cadmium cells housed in a machined magnesium chassis. The battery package weighs 29.5 kg and is unique in that the chassis also serves as part of the spacecraft structure. Active thermal control is accomplished by louvers mounted to the battery baseplate. Battery charge is accomplished by C/10 and C/30 constant current chargers. The switch from the high-rate to low-rate charge is automatic, based on terminal voltage. Additional control is possible by ground command or onboard computer. The performance data from the flight battery is compared to the data from various battery tests in the laboratory. Flight battery data was predictable based on ground test data.

Bogner, R. S.

Divergent trait controls on soluble sugars and starch underlie global strategies of tree carbohydrate storage

Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) stores buffer tree metabolism, osmotic regulation, and defense, thereby mediating tolerance and survival under climate extremes. Yet, the functional and evolutionary determinants of interspecific variation in NSC remain elusive, limiting understanding and prediction of forest carbon allocation and mortality under global change. Here, we present a cross-species synthesis of NSC concentrations across multiple organs for 281 woody species from 102 mixed forest communities worldwide, where we quantified species-specific deviations from community means to disentangle intrinsic trait effects from environmental and methodological variation. We found phylogenetic signals in NSC deviations, with coniferous gymnosperms and evergreen species consistently maintaining lower stem soluble sugars and starch concentrations than co-occurring angiosperms and deciduous species, respectively. A global pattern emerged where greater stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential was associated with declines in the relative concentrations of both sugars and starch. In contrast, xylem hydraulic safety traits showed weak and organ-dependent relationships with NSC concentrations. Sugars increased with photosynthetic capacity and declined with wood density, whereas starch showed the reverse pattern, which aligned with the distinct functional-metabolic roles of sugars and starch. By integrating trait-based ecology with a community-centered framework, our study provides global evidence that stomatal regulation, photosynthetic capacity, specific leaf area, and wood density jointly govern interspecific NSC variation, through contrasting effects on sugars and starch. These are among the most broadly measured traits globally, thus the emergent carbohydrate–trait relationships can have broad applications toward understanding and predicting forest growth and survival under climate change.

tropic system

Insights into mixing of non-isothermal multi-polymer melts for complex plastics recycling

Catalytic recycling or upcycling of plastics is often limited not by catalyst performance, but by transport, arising from highly viscous, non-Newtonian polymer melts. In this work, we develop a reactor-scale framework that integrates rheological measurements, constitutive modeling, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and experiments to quantify mixing, heat transfer, and dispersion in surrogate hydrocarbon melts representing mixed plastics systems. Temperature- and shear rate-dependent viscosity of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is measured to create two surrogate polymers (PLD and PHD) that capture the dominant shear-thinning flow behavior while neglecting strong elastic effects, enabling tractable simulation of non-isothermal, polymer-melt mixing using a Carreau-Arrhenius generalized Newtonian framework. Three-dimensional CFD simulations are employed to evaluate impeller performance in PLD using mixing time, cavern volume, thermal uniformity, and interfacial area for regimes in which viscoelastic effects are not dominant. We show that magnetic stir bars commonly used in lab-scale studies produce large thermal gradients (~60 °C) and poor mixing, even under idealized power delivery and polymer flow conditions. In contrast, close-clearance anchor impellers achieve near-isothermal operation, reduce mixing times by up to 5×, and provide >90% active circulation volume. We further demonstrate that, at low pseudo-Deborah number (De*), motor power requirements can be predicted directly from shear rate-dependent rheology using the Carreau-Arrhenius framework, enabling rational selection of operating conditions. Extension to surrogate immiscible multi-polymer systems based on PLD and PHD shows that interfacial area is highly sensitive to operating conditions and impeller design, with coaxial anchor-turbine configurations enhancing dispersion by up to 4 × .

Close-clearance impellers

Direct Measurement of Cl − Activity in Metal Chloride Molten Salts using a Cl 2 /Cl − Electrode

Molten metal chloride salts are promising candidates for advanced heat transfer fluids in generation IV nuclear reactors and beyond. The activity of the chloride ion in the salt has a large influence on the redox characteristics of the corresponding molten salt. There exists a knowledge gap for the direct measurement of chlorobasicity (Lewis basicity) in molten-salt mixtures. Here, the focus of this work was to develop a Cl 2 /Cl − electrode for the direct measurement of chloride activity in molten metal-chloride salt mixtures. The LiCl–KCl eutectic system was utilized as the reference melt to determine the change in chloride ion activity as increasing concentrations of MgCl 2 are added to the LiCl–KCl eutectic working electrode. The results of the measurements indicated a reduction in chloride ion activity as the concentration of magnesium chloride increased, consistent with the complexation of free chlorides by Lewis acidic magnesium cationic species. The Temkin model was used to estimate the thermodynamic properties of MgCl 4 2− complex.

Chloride

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery Electric Aircraft

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI