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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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58 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing NO Reduction by CO Over NiO/CeO 2 Catalyst by Optimizing the Metal Oxide–Support Interaction

Noble metal catalysts are widely used in three-way catalysts (TWCs) due to their high efficiency, but their scarcity and high cost drive the need for effective, low-cost alternatives. Here, in this work, a series of NiO/CeO 2 catalysts were engineered by modulating the OH content and crystallite size of the CeO 2 support. This approach yielded Ni species ranging from isolated single atoms to small clusters and larger aggregates, with varied NiO/CeO 2 interaction strengths. Evaluation of their performance in NO reduction by CO, CO oxidation, and the water–gas shift reaction revealed that the NiO/CeO 2 -300 catalyst, featuring small CeO 2 crystallites and highly dispersed NiO clusters, delivered superior activity for NO reduction and CO oxidation. It was demonstrated that small NiO clusters, due to their efficient CO adsorption and activation, were more active than Ni single atoms. Furthermore, the presence of water was found to influence the catalyst stability, with NiO clusters less stable than single atoms likely due to the hydroxylation effect leading to the formation of Ni(OH) 2 . Oxygen storage capacity measurements revealed that performance was governed by a combination of CeO 2 crystallite size and the abundance of NiO/CeO 2 interfaces. These findings demonstrated that the catalytic performance of Ni/CeO 2 systems could be maximized by optimizing the Ni nanostructure and its interaction with CeO 2 support, positioning them as a promising, multifunctional nonprecious alternative for three-way catalysis application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process-level cost analysis of hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace structural components

Hybrid manufacturing is a promising route for producing complex aerospace components, yet systematic cost benchmarking across multiple additive-subtractive pathways remains limited. This study presents a comprehensive process-based cost analysis of seven hybrid manufacturing routes, including laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF), powder- and wire-directed energy deposition (DED), wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), additive friction stir deposition (AFSD), metal binder jetting (MBJ), and agility forging, followed by scanning and finish machining. Parametric cost models incorporating direct material, labor, and energy costs were developed. L-PBF results are discussed in detail for a pickle fork component and directly compared with commercial pricing. Across all hybrid routes, labor emerged as the dominant cost driver, contributing more than 70% of total manufacturing cost in some cases. AFSD exhibited the lowest cost for aluminum components, with MBJ being its 316 L stainless steel counterpart, after accounting for geometric scaling. Benchmarking against industrial quotes suggests that hybrid manufacturing can achieve cost levels comparable to those of commercial services, although labor-intensive processes exhibit greater deviation. The analysis highlights automation of material handling, setup, and supervision as key opportunities for improving economic competitiveness. Overall, the proposed framework provides a quantitative basis for evaluating and optimizing hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace applications.

Baruah, Sweta [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000174256207)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and Validation of Low-Cost, High-Reflectance Composite CSP Facets: SIPS Final Report

This work investigates the various challenges associated with developing heliostat structural composite facets using 1 mm glass mirrors. Such facets are desirable for Concentrating Solar Power because 1 mm glass mirrors provide an absolute increase in reflectivity of 2-3 % over the industry standard of 4 mm glass mirrors. Prototypes of paraboloid composite facets with 1 mm glass mirrors were constructed that have a root mean square slope error on the order of 2 mrad while achieving greater than 96% reflectivity. These facets were constructed using a low-quality aluminum mold and a bill of materials that show potential to achieve cost parity with existing 4 mm glass mirrors supported by structural steel. The facets produced were able to survive up to 50 mm hail ball impacts and were robust against accelerated environmental cycling designed to expose durability concerns. Further work is needed to develop a scalable and cost-effective manufacturing process with a similar bill of materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extreme confinement of hydrogen gas within fullerenelike nanoporous carbon

Nanoporous carbons and carbon nanostructures can store hydrogen at cryogenic temperatures but lack the volumetric and gravimetric capacity to be industrially significant. Recent inelastic neutron scattering experiments suggest a highly dense phase of hydrogen at temperatures well above the melting point of solid hydrogen. However, it remains unclear how pore geometry and intermolecular interactions enable these dense phases to exist, with dispersion (van der Waals) or electrostatic/induction suggested to be the key effects in slit and curved pores but their relative contributions have yet to be quantified. In this paper, we perform benchmark electronic structure calculations allowing the interactions between planar and curved aromatic molecules with hydrogen to be accurately determined. Dispersion was found to dominate over electrostatic and inductive effects with some many-body charge transfer (Dobson type-A) effects needed to capture the most highly curved structures. Density functional methods that include type-A many-body effects were found to accurately describe the intermolecular interactions at a fraction of the cost of coupled-cluster simulations and these approaches were used to calculate the energies inside large carbon bowl and slit pores. The interaction energies inside the bowl pores were found to depend on the orientation of the hydrogen molecule. This rotational barrier, modeled as a quantum hindered rotor, could reproduce the peak splitting observed in inelastic neutron scattering experiments, with weak splitting arising from bowl-like fullerene pores and strong splitting from highly confining nanotubelike pores. Increasing the fraction of such curved pores in nanoporous carbons may therefore offer a pathway to enhance their hydrogen-storage capacity. Moreover, the preferential adsorption of ortho hydrogen on nanotubelike pores could enable the storage of high-density hydrogen without the need to remove heat produced during the ortho-para hydrogen conversion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

High‐Loading Lithium‐Sulfur Batteries with Solvent‐Free Dry‐Electrode Processing

Abstract Lithium‐sulfur (Li‐S) batteries, with their high energy density, nontoxicity, and the natural abundance of sulfur, hold immense potential as the next‐generation energy storage technology. To maximize the actual energy density of the Li‐S batteries for practical applications, it is crucial to escalate the areal capacity of the sulfur cathode by fabricating an electrode with high sulfur loading. Herein, ultra‐high sulfur loading (up to 12 mg cm −2 ) cathodes are fabricated through an industrially viable and sustainable solvent‐free dry‐processing method that utilizes a polytetrafluoroethylene binder fibrillation. Due to its low porosity cathode architecture formed by the binder fibrillation process, the dry‐processed electrodes exhibit a relatively lower initial capacity compared to the slurry‐processed electrode. However, its mechanical stability is well maintained throughout the cycling without the formation of electrode cracking, demonstrating significantly superior cycling stability. Additionally, through the optimization of the dry‐processing, a single‐layer pouch cell with a loading of 9 mg cm −2 and a novel multi‐layer pouch cell that uses an aluminum mesh as its current collector with a total loading of 14 mg cm −2 are introduced. To address the reduced initial capacity of dry‐processed electrodes, strategies such as incorporating electrocatalysts or employing prelithiated active materials are suggested.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

A parametric study of slow dynamic nonlinear elasticity with comparisons to models

Several phenomenological models that aspire to quantitative description of anomalous nonlinear mesoscopic elasticity are reviewed and compared with laboratory measurements. This class of nonlinearity, best known perhaps for slow dynamics and aging, is seen widely in imperfectly consolidated granular solids but is not well understood. Typical slow dynamic tests show that a modest conditioning oscillatory "pump" strain depresses material stiffness, which then recovers like the logarithm of time after conditioning ceases. Several phenomenological models based on physical arguments have been proposed that predict the material stiffness response to arbitrary pump strain histories during conditioning and recovery. Approximate closed form and numerical solutions to the models are presented that predict the quantitative influence of three key pump parameters: the pump's strain amplitude, the pump's strain rate, and the pump’s duration. Laboratory measurements on Berea sandstone, concrete and a confined single aluminum bead find that slow dynamic responses are linear in pump strain and independent of pump frequency. Measurements also show that, after pump-off, stiffness recovers over times far longer than the pump duration. These observations and others are compared to model predictions. One of the considered models, based on a picture of fast brittle damage and slow healing, successfully matches all these behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Coherence Limits in Superconducting Quantum Systems for Computing and Sensing

This talk will highlight recent efforts at the SQMS Center to develop qudit-based quantum computing architectures using superconducting three-dimensional (3D) cavities, as well as the use of these ultra-coherent cavities for quantum sensing. I will present systematic studies of materials and devices aimed at identifying and mitigating the dominant sources of decoherence—including two-level systems (TLS), quasiparticles, and other noise mechanisms—in both transmons and 3D cavities. These investigations include microwave loss characterization of niobium, tantalum, aluminum, their native oxides, and substrate materials such as silicon and sapphire. By combining measurements on qubits and cavities, we disentangle subsystem-specific loss mechanisms and establish a hierarchy of mitigation strategies, leading to transmon coherence times exceeding one millisecond. I will also discuss studies of quasiparticle dynamics, including quasiparticle bursts observed in qubits operated both above ground and at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory, and the observation that applied magnetic fields can suppress temporal T₁ fluctuations. Building on these advances, we demonstrate a record-coherence two-cell cavity-qudit system with coherence times exceeding 20 milliseconds. Leveraging tunable sideband interactions together with error-resilient protocols, including measurement-based error correction and post-selection, we achieve high-fidelity quantum state control, including the preparation of Fock states up to N=20 with fidelities above 95% and the generation of high-fidelity two-mode entangled states. Finally, I will discuss how these ultra-coherent quantum systems are enabling emerging quantum sensing applications, including searches for dark matter and gravitational waves.

Roy, Tanay [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000019442862X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Three-dimensional nucleation and growth of deformation twins in magnesium

At two-thirds the weight of aluminum, magnesium alloys have the potential to reduce the fuel consumption of transportation vehicles. These advancements depend on our ability to optimize the desirable versus undesirable effects of deformation twins, which are three-dimensional (3D) microstructural domains that form under mechanical stresses. Previously only characterized through surface or thin-film measurements, we here present 3D in situ characterization of deformation twinning inside an embedded grain over mesoscopic fields of view using dark-field x-ray microscopy supported by crystal plasticity finite element analysis. The results revealed the role of triple junctions on twin nucleation and the sequence and irregularity of twin growth and showed that twin-grain junctions, twin-twin junctions, and twin boundaries were the sites of localized dislocation accumulation.

Lee, Sangwon [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (Un↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monolayer Films of Binary Metal Oxide Nanoparticles for Carbon Nanotube Synthesis

Binary metal oxide nanoparticles (biMO-NPs) combining transition and main-group metals with well-organized atomic architectures have unique potential as robust and economical heterogeneous catalysts. Herein, metal oxide nanoparticles (CoAlxOy) using cobalt and aluminum were synthesized, and their structure, morphology, and chemical composition were investigated using various characterization techniques. The biMO-NPs, which had a Gaussian-type size distribution (∼6 nm), were assembled on plain silicon substrates modified chemically with linker molecules bearing suitable end groups. Surface analysis revealed an ordered, uniform, close-packed arrangement of biMO-NPs forming a monolayer architecture with nanoscale thickness (∼12 nm), high surface uniformity, and negligible defects. The nanoparticle monolayer film (NP-MF) was employed as a catalyst to grow carbon nanotube (CNT) forests via the thermal chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method, similar to those grown from catalyst thin films deposited by physical vapor deposition. Structural characterization confirmed the growth of a dense, uniform, high-quality vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VA-CNT) forest with a length of ∼125 µm, which is comparable to the VA-CNTs grown from expensive thin films. Thus, CNT growth was successfully catalyzed by the biMO-NPs, highlighting a simple and inexpensive alternative for catalyst deposition. In this innovative wet-chemistry approach, the catalyst and catalyst support are combined within a single nanoparticle before NP-MF assembly. Interestingly, this approach provides a scalable and cost-effective pathway for CNT growth, eliminating the need for expensive thin deposition techniques.

Regmi, Bishow [University of Cincinnati]↗
DOE OSTI2026

A comparison of wrought and powder metallurgical FeCrAl claddings under simulated LWR accident transients

Iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloys are potential accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding candidates for light-water reactors but are difficult to fabricate as thin-walled tubes via conventional cast-and-wrought routes. Powder metallurgy (PM) offers a manufacturing alternative with improved compositional control, but its transient accident performance has not been directly benchmarked against wrought variants. This study evaluates the burst behavior of commercially developed PM-processed FeCrAl alloys, PM-C26M (Fe-12Cr-6Al-2Mo) and the high precipitate density FA-SMT (Fe-22Cr-5Al-3Mo), under simulated light-water reactor accident transient conditions. Burst testing was conducted using the Severe Accident Test Station with heating rates of 5 °C/s and 50 °C/s and internal pressures ranging from 25 MPa to 100 MPa. PM-C26M reproduced wrought C26M burst behavior within 7–37 °C across the stress range, indicating that PM processing does not compromise transient strength. FA-SMT exhibited markedly higher burst temperatures and reduced heating-rate sensitivity, consistent with its engineered precipitate strengthening. FA-SMT rupture exhibited axial "unzipping" rather than the lateral tearing characteristic of PM- and wrought C26M. Post-test EBSD and fractography indicate that this behavior is strongly correlated with strain-gated intergranular void nucleation associated with the dense precipitate architecture of FA-SMT, a response absent in the comparatively clean PM-C26M matrix and consistent with rupture morphologies reported for oxide-dispersion strengthened (ODS) FeCrAl of similar base-matrix chemistry to PM-C26M. These findings highlight the potential of powder metallurgy as a viable fabrication route for ATF claddings from an accident performance standpoint.

Bell, Sam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000251905657)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced blade-shaped thermal energy storage device: Development and application

Thermal energy storage (TES) using phase change materials (PCMs) is a promising approach for capturing and reusing excess thermal energy, yet widespread adoption is limited by low thermal conductivity, bulky configurations, and inadequate scalability. Here, this study presents a modular, blade-shaped TES prototype designed to address these challenges. The device integrates a lightweight aluminum shell, an embedded serpentine coil for active or passive heat exchange, and a cost-effective corrugated metal mesh for enhanced PCM thermal conductivity. With thickness-to-length and thickness-to-width ratios of 0.03 and 0.08, respectively, the blade-shaped TES achieves a compact, modular form factor suitable for space-constrained applications. Experimental testing demonstrated the efficient charge and discharge behavior of blade-shaped TES, capturing PCM superheating, phase-change transitions, and subcooling dynamics, with charging and discharging efficiencies of 94.9% and 94.6%, respectively. Also, the system can potentially achieve higher energy density than that of conventional TES designs. When integrated into a household refrigerator during the study, three blade-shaped TES modules successfully shifted 100% of peak-time compressor operation to off-peak hours, reducing energy consumption while maintaining more stable compartment temperatures. The blade-shaped TES's thin geometry, modularity, and enhanced thermal performance support scalable deployment across residential, commercial, and industrial applications, providing a versatile, cost-effective solution for high-efficiency, demand-flexible thermal energy management.

Blade-shaped↗
DOE OSTI2026

Depletion benchmark for a high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel experiment in the advanced test reactor

Reactor physics depletion benchmarks for high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel are limited in number. In particular, there is limited data for HALEU benchmarks for U-10Mo (uranium-10% molybdenum) plate fuel that is being developed for use in the United States’ high performance research reactors including the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), Advanced Test Reactor Critical Facility (ATR-C), High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR), Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR), University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR), National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). These six reactors currently operate with highly enriched uranium dispersed fuel in an aluminum matrix. In support of conversion to a HALEU fuel, qualification of U-10Mo formed into a monolithic foil is being performed. Fuel qualification involves irradiating fuel specimens in the ATR. The irradiation tests provide an opportunity to benchmark depletion capabilities of reactor physics codes in support of the ATR operation, as well as develop benchmarks that can be used by other institutions to benchmark other reactor physics codes. This paper documents the development of a benchmark model of the irradiation of the ATR Full-size plate In center flux trap Position 7 (AFIP-7) experiment using the depletion codes MC21 and Advanced Dimensional Depletion for Engineering of Reactors (ADDER).

Nielsen, Joseph W. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Power performance and loads characterization of laboratory-scale cross-flow rotors fabricated using additive manufacturing

Tidal energy conversion is a relatively new application for additive manufacturing (AM), where the focus has been on fabricating axial-flow turbine blades. AM techniques add material precisely where it is needed, creating more complex shapes with less waste. Cross-flow rotor geometry presents an opportunity for AM to improve rotor performance by fabricating features that cannot be created economically via conventional manufacturing. The challenges associated with using AM in cross-flow design include water resistance and degradation over time while retaining a level of quality equivalent to conventionally machined parts. In this work, AM materials were tested by environmentally conditioning samples in a seawater tank for 5 months, followed by performance and phase-resolved load testing of laboratory-scale rotors in a hydraulic flume. We found that while metals like titanium and Inconel have excellent performance in marine environments, achieving the desired geometry and performance is difficult. Thermoplastics degraded in seawater but were easier to form into desired geometries and could exceed the performance of an aluminum control rotor. Warping and surface finish were significant detractors from AM rotor performance. These results suggest that the primary benefits of using AM for cross-flow rotors is to quickly fabricate and test unconventional rotor geometries.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optical transparency of LiF (100) shock compressed to ∼360 GPa

High-purity [100] lithium fluoride (LiF) is the most widely used optical window in dynamic compression experiments due to its wide bandgap and well-characterized mechanical response. Recent plate-impact experiments established the [100] LiF Hugoniot to ∼230 GPa and demonstrated shock-induced melting onset at 182 GPa with complete melting by 195 GPa; theoretical models predict LiF optical transparency to nearly 900 GPa. To experimentally examine the optical transparency of [100] LiF at higher pressures and in the liquid state, laser-driven shock experiments were performed at peak stresses ranging from 223 to 363 GPa. Optical response was examined by measuring the particle velocity histories at the Kapton/LiF interface using laser interferometry at 532 and 1550 nm wavelengths; in-material particle velocities were obtained using established refractive-index corrections. Continuous photonic Doppler velocimetry fringes were observed across the entire stress range, demonstrating that LiF remains transparent to 1550 nm light throughout the multi-megabar regime investigated. At 532 nm, fringe visibility depended on the reflector coating: aluminum mirrors provided signals to ∼235 GPa, while gold mirrors extended this limit to 270.5 GPa, indicating that the shorter-wavelength response is likely sensitive to experimental configuration rather than to the loss of LiF transparency. Continued optical transparency to at least 360 GPa indicates that shock-melted LiF does not display bandgap closure over the stress range explored. Furthermore, these results provide direct experimental constraints on the high-pressure optical response and establish LiF (100) as a robust optical window material for laser-driven dynamic compression experiments approaching 400 GPa.

Renganathan, P. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chronology of ungrouped achondrites Northwest Africa 11119 and 7325/8486: implications for early evolution of a heterogeneous crust on a differentiated planetesimal

The chronology of ungrouped achondrites provides key insights into the timeline of igneous activity in the early Solar System. Two ungrouped achondrites – Northwest Africa (NWA) 11119 (andesite-dacite) and NWA 8486 and its pair NWA 7325 (olivine gabbro) – are the focus of this study, where their chronologies are investigated using multiple high-resolution techniques. Here we report the lead-lead (207Pb-206Pb) and manganese-chromium (53Mn-53Cr) systematics of NWA 11119, as well as the 207Pb-206Pb systematics of NWA 8486 alongside aluminum-magnesium (26Al-26Mg) systematics for NWA 7325. The U-corrected 207Pb-206Pb ages of NWA 11119 and the combined ages of NWA 7325/8486 are 4566.4 ± 0.8 Ma and 4563.8 ± 1.9 Ma, respectively. Additionally, we report the 53Mn-53Cr age of NWA 11119 to be 4564.4 ± 2.5 Ma and the 26Al-26Mg age of NWA 7325/8486 to be 4563.1 ± 0.3 Ma. The formation of NWA 11119 requires partial melting of a (likely chondritic) source reservoir leading to eruption of Si rich, alkali depleted magmas, while NWA 7325/8486 likely formed from a chemically fractionated reservoir with superchondritic Al/Mg. The clear geochemical and isotopic similarities of these achondrites, combined with the chronology reported here, is suggestive of formation of these two ungrouped achondrites on a common parent body which likely formed in the inner Solar System and experienced early differentiation under reducing conditions. If these achondrites did share a parent body, it would suggest that primary asteroids in the early Solar System commonly produced mineralogically and geochemically heterogeneous crusts. While mineralogical and geochemical heterogeneity is known to exist in the (mostly mafic) crust of asteroid Vesta, our findings show that even more significant crustal heterogeneity (representing felsic and mafic compositions) may exist on other asteroids.

Cartwright, Julia [University of Leicester, UK]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Qualifying LaBr3:Ce+Sr detector performance for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab Using the ELBE Accelerator

A LaBr3:Ce+Sr detector will be used to measure the stopped muon captures at the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. It has been benchmarked in a test beam experiment performed at the ELBE electron accelerator located at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Germany. ELBE’s pulsed bremsstrahlung beam line was set to deliver an average γ -ray energy of between 4–5 MeV. The detector response was mapped to match Mu2e beam conditions, including rates up to 1 Mcps, energy flux, and time structure. A radioactive calibration source was used to mimic the characteristic 1808.7 keV γ -ray, emitted during the atomic muon nuclear capture in the Mu2e aluminum stopping target. The detector energy resolution was measured as a function of the average energy flux: up to 1 TeV/s for 0.34 s, the steady-operation beam-on time and up to 4 TeV/s for 5 ms to get a conservative estimate of the effect of high intensity Mu2e beam fluctuations. The PMT gain variation as a function of the beam spill length and average intensity has been parametrized and corrected for. When a PMT gain correction corresponding to the average beam-spill intensity is applied, the residual effect of beam intensity fluctuations around the average degrades the energy resolution, σ E γ /E γ , at 1808.7 keV from 0.66% to 0.83%.

Huang, Shihua [Purdue U., West Lafayette]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring Depolymerization in Mesopores Using Dynamic Properties of Polymeric Melt Accessed via Dielectric Spectroscopy

Traditional design principles for heterogeneous catalysis guide the use of catalytic particles with mesosized (∼2–50 nm) pores to increase the number of surface-active sites by way of an increased surface area. However, the entry of long-chain polymers into such pores may be significantly limited by the size and entanglement of polymers in the melt state, thereby decreasing the number of accessible sites. Assessment of catalyst performance from traditional reactor-based studies averages over intrapore reaction events as well as reactions on the surface of a particle, resulting in an inability to distinguish between differences in site accessibility and activity. Techniques that assess the intrapore performance can inform the design of future heterogeneous catalysts for polymer upcycling. In this work, we demonstrate the use of broadband dielectric spectroscopy to monitor depolymerization of a polymer melt within mesopores via changes in the segmental relaxation time scale of amorphous polymer chains. In particular, we highlight the use of an anodic aluminum oxide (AAO) membrane as a readily available model for catalyst pores with a well-characterized pore morphology. The decrease in the segmental relaxation (α-relaxation) time of the melt with increasing chain scission emerges as a measure of the extent of polymer deconstruction inside mesopores. To demonstrate the utility of this technique, we demonstrate the decomposition of two commercial poly(propylene carbonate) polymers with different decomposition rates within mesopores. As the polymers depolymerize, their segmental relaxation time decreases as the molecular weight decreases (as predicted by the Fox–Flory equation). The BDS-measured change in segmental relaxation time mirrors the expected trend based on change in molecular weight measured by size exclusion chromatography.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗