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Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics

Chapter 19A – Radar Cross Section

The material in this Section will provide the novice Flight Test Engineer (FTE) with a brief overview of the radar cross section (RCS) concept. Brief details of radar range descriptions, operations, target calibrations, and data reduction are included. It is noted that these range operations concentrate on the "static" test range rather than the much more sophisticated "dynamic" test range. The dynamic test range is what the FTE will probably work with. Radar reflectivity measurement has developed over the last two decades from a relatively simple endeavor involving the measurement of target RCS amplitude statistics to involving wide band, coherent systems that can measure high resolution images of targets as well as, in many cases, the polarization and phasing properties. This rapid growth in RCS technology has occurred because of the increased use of radar in today's commercial and military systems. In general, the goal for commercial systems is to enhance radar reflectivity, whereas the military goal is to reduce radar reflectivity. Also, classification and identification are important for military purposes because in adverse weather radar may be the only system that may be capable of separating enemy targets from friendly ones. This Section will discuss the fundamentals of RCS. Since the flight test techniques associated with RCS measurements are very similar to those of antenna pattern measurements, both will be presented at the same time in Section 19B Antenna Radiation Pattern Measurements.

Robert W Borek

GVIPS Prediction of Cyclic Ratchetting Behavior and Cycles with Interrupted Relaxation Periods of TIMETAL 21S at 650 °C

The predictive performance of a multimechanism GVIPS model with saturating hardening function is assessed against a set of high temperature cyclic experiments under both strain-control and stress-control at varying rates of loading as well as several complex interrupted cyclic responses. The material specimens were composed of the titanium alloy, TIMETAL 21S, and tested at 650 °C, see Lissenden et al., 2007. The model did a very good job of predicting the variety of tests, particularly given the fact that only monotonic loading tests (tensile, creep, relaxation) and a single fully reversed cycle was used for characterization. It was particularly interesting that the model was capable of reasonably capturing the rate of accumulated strain during ratchetting under tensile mean stress. Given complex interrupted cyclic response, the model was able to both qualitatively and even quantitatively predict reasonably well both the cyclic and associated relaxation periods (in all quadrants of the stress-strain space) thus confirming the validity of the chosen functional forms for both hardening and thermal recovery. The quantitative inaccuracy is associated with the fact that the material specimens tested by Lissenden et al., 2007 was significantly “softer” than those tested by Castelli in Saleeb et al., 1994 which were used for characterization of the GVIPS model parameters.

Viscoplaticity

General Purpose Data-Driven System Monitoring for Space Operations

Modern space propulsion and exploration system designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems using traditional methods is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grows. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or for analysis of archived events. Ongoing and developing IMS space operations applications include International Space Station flight control, satellite vehicle system health management, launch vehicle ground operations, and fleet supportability. As a common thread of discussion this paper will employ the evolution of the IMS data-driven technique as related to several Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) elements. Thematically, the projects listed will be used as case studies. The maturation of IMS via projects where it has been deployed, or is currently being integrated to aid in fault detection will be described. The paper will also explain how IMS can be used to complement a suite of other ISHM tools, providing initial fault detection support for diagnosis and recovery.

Satellites

Space Suit Material Compatibility with Space Vehicle Coolant PMS-1.5R

During a survey of 82P on February 11, 2023, a shiny substance was detected on the Progress vehicle. The suspected material was PMS-1.5R, a low volatility silicone oil coolant used in the vehicle. Crew exposure to the coolant was a concern as the low volatility would increase residence time, the time a material will stay on a surface after exposure to vacuum. A review of space suit materials revealed several materials with compatibility concerns that could impact Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations and safety. To understand the risk, space suit materials were exposed to a simulant and tested. This testing provided the basis for rationale generated to continue with EVA operations for US EVA 86 on April 2, 2023. This testing also served as the basis to assess impacts to ISS EMU hardware due to potential contamination brought inside ISS on Russian space suits during RS EVA 61 on October 25, 2023, following an ISS Russian Multipurpose Lab Module (MLM) radiator leak of the same fluid on October 9, 2023. This paper will discuss the testing performed and analyze test results impacts to EVA operations. Additional work was conducted to determine coolant evaporation rates in space vacuum and demonstrate that no significant unreacted coolant from the MLM leak would remain on ISS surfaces long enough to contaminate the EMU or affect the ISS ECLSS water separator.

Space Suit Materials

The NASA Inductrack Model Rocket Launcher at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

The Inductrack magnetic levitation system, developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is being studied for its possible use for launching rockets. Under NASA sponsorship, a small model system is being constructed at the Laboratory to pursue key technical aspects of this proposed application. The Inductrack is a passive magnetic levitation system employing special arrays of high-field permanent magnets (Halbach arrays) on the levitating carrier, moving above a "track" consisting of a close-packed array of shorted coils with which are interleaved with special drive coils. Halbach arrays produce a strong spatially periodic magnetic field on the front surface of the arrays, while canceling the field on their back surface. Relative motion between the Halbach arrays and the track coils induces currents in those coils. These currents levitate the carrier cart by interacting with the horizontal component of the magnetic field. Pulsed currents in the drive coils, synchronized with the motion of the carrier, interact with the vertical component of the magnetic field to provide acceleration forces. Motional stability, including resistance to both vertical and lateral aerodynamic forces, is provided by having Halbach arrays that interact with both the upper and the lower sides of the track coils. In its completed form the model system that is under construction will have a track approximately 100 meters in length along which the carrier cart will be propelled up to peak speeds of Mach 0.4 to 0.5 before being decelerated. Preliminary studies of the parameters of a full-scale system have also been made. These studies address the problems of scale-up, including means to simplify the track construction and to reduce the cost of the pulsed-power systems needed for propulsion.

L S Tung

Microgravity Effects on Standardized Cognitive Performance Measures

The purpose of this experiment, selected to fly on the International Microgravity Laboratory (IML-2) Spacelab mission, is to determine the effects of microgravity upon the cognitive skills which are critical to successful performance of many tasks on board the Space Shuttle. Six tests from the Unified Tri-service Cognitive Performance Assessment Battery (UTC-PAB) will be administered to the Mission Specialists to fulfill the goals of this experiment. These tests are based upon current theoretical models of human performance and the hypothesized effects of microgravity. The principle objective is the identification of the effects of microgravity upon specific information processing skills affecting performance from those of fatigue and shifts in work/rest cycles. Multiple measures of both short and long term fatigue will be obtained and used as a major independent variable for the analysis of these performance data. Scientific supporting studies will determine optimum practice and performance testing schedules for the astronauts. The same tests will be used post-flight to collect data on the recovery of any cognitive performance impairment compared with pre-flight, baseline levels.

Samuel G Schiflett

Characterization of the Mechanical Trash Compactor Bag Removal Force

Managing trash accumulation is a critical challenge in human space explorations since the trash volume and mass can significantly influence launch cost and operational efficiency. This study aids the development of a Mechanical Trash Compactor (Mpactor) by testing the removal force required to remove a “trash bag” from the Mpactor. To do this, a Pneumatic Pressure Mandrel System was designed to simulate the normal force trash would exerts on the trash bag and subsequently the sidewalls of the Mpactor. For various levels of sidewall normal force, the removal force required to remove the simulated trash bag from the Mpactor compaction chamber was measured. This testing is used to identify optimal bag materials. Additionally, testing was done on both the native stainless steel walls of the compaction chamber as well as the walls after being Teflon lined. Split-plot ANOVA, simple main effects analysis, Holm’s post hoc comparisons for interaction, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the influence of trash bag and sidewall materials on the required removal force. It was found that Teflon reduced the force required to remove the trash bag as well as reduced material-dependent variation in removal force. Testing showed that Teflon reduced the required removal force with a Polyvinylidene Fluoride , an unidentified Ethylene acrylate - Low Density Polyethylene copolymer, and a Polyvinyl Chloride all requiring significantly less removal force than the other materials tested.

pressure mandrel

Update on Development of 360V, 28kWh Lithium-Ion Battery

Engineering unit submodule batteries (EUSB) the 360V, 28kWh EAPU battery were designed and assembled by COM DEV. These submodules consist of Sony Li-Ion 18650HC cells in a 5P-41S array yielding 180V, 1.4 kWh. Tests of these and of substrings and single cells at COM DEV and at JSC under various performance and abuse conditions demonstrated that performance requirements can be met. The thermal vacuum tests demonstrated that the worst case hot condition is the design driver. Deficiencies in the initial diode protection scheme of the battery were identified as a result of test failures. Potential solutions to the scheme are under development and will be presented.

Davies, Francis

WINDSAT Free Flyer Using the Advanced TIROS-N Satellite

The results of this study show the feasibility of carrying a wind measuring lidar on an ATN-derivative free flying spacecraft. The overall configuration fits within the Shuttle bay and uses the same techniques for STS Launch as the proposed SAATN spacecraft. The lidar can be made light enough that the total weight of the satellite is well within the capability of the onboard propulsion system for transfers to a Sun synchronous orbit at 833 km attitude. The principal techniques for weight minimization are the use of the Perkin Elmer proprietary HIP process for the telescope, new packaging concepts for the laser and for the optics-laser interface, and the application of current technology to the signal processing hardware. Power minimization is achieved for the lidar primarily by use of a low pulse repetition frequency, i.e., 2pps, and again by the use of current processor technology. The power capability of the spacecraft is enhanced by increasing the ATN array size 25 percent, through the addition of two more solar array panels of the present size, and by limiting the range of Sun angles over which the spacecraft is operated. The same basic concept for the lidar as proposed in the Shuttle Windsat study is recommended here, but there are some changes in details to improve weight and power. No major technology break-throughs are required for the lidar, but some technology experiments are recommended for the laser subsystem to verify isotopic gas lifetime and performance, modulator life and weight, and for space qualification. Spacecraft changes are all natural modifications or growth to accommodate the payload. Overall, the proposed system provides substantial margin for the uncertainties for the future and for potential payload change, and also demonstrates the reasonableness of the Windsat Free Flyer concept.

Herbert M Gurk

Multi-Agent Swarm State of the Art Report

The Next-Generation Multi-Agent Swarm (NGS) Study conducted by NASA’s Ames Research Center for NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) will develop a comprehensive understanding of emerging multi-agent swarm capabilities. The study aims to identify existing swarm capabilities and asses their potential for persistent lunar space situational awareness, surface monitoring, and distributed autonomy demonstrations. A key objective is to inform the design of a next-generation multi-agent swarm that can perform autonomous distributed remote sensing, position, navigation, and timing (PNT) services, automated deployment that leverages autonomy, edge computing, and interoperable networking to enable cooperative operations without the need for immediate human operation. This study will address specific shortfalls identified by STMD, including intelligent multi-agent constellations, autonomy, edge computation, position, navigation, and timing for small spacecraft, small spacecraft propulsion, and space situational awareness (1625, 1438, 1433, 1557, 1431, 1430, 1589). The NASA Ames Mission Design Center (MDC) will provide subject matter expertise to support systems engineering trades, while experts in autonomy and spacecraft swarms in NASA’s Intelligent Systems Division will lead the study and focus on identifying emerging next-generation swarm capabilities. The study objectives include: capturing the current state-of-the-art for multi-agent swarm capabilities, evaluating technologies and creating technology roadmaps, and developing at least one new technology demonstration mission concept. This initial NGS study report surveys the current state of the art in technology areas relevant for the next-generation multi-agent swarm design. Our primary focus is on surveying relevant deployed space systems1, supplemented with selective analysis of relevant proposed missions and technology developments that have yet to fly.

agent

A Panchromatic View of the Restless SN 2009ip Reveals the Explosive Ejection of a Massive Star Envelope

The double explosion of SN 2009ip in 2012 raises questions about our understanding of the late stages of massive star evolution. Here we present a comprehensive study of SN 2009ip during its remarkable rebrightenings. High-cadence photometric and spectroscopic observations from the GeV to the radio band obtained from a variety of ground-based and space facilities (including the Very Large Array, Swift, Fermi, Hubble Space Telescope, and XMM) constrain SN 2009ip to be a low energy (E (is) approximately 10(exp 50) erg for an ejecta mass approximately 0.5 solar mass) and asymmetric explosion in a complex medium shaped by multiple eruptions of the restless progenitor star. Most of the energy is radiated as a result of the shock breaking out through a dense shell of material located at approximately 5 × 10( exp 14) cm with M approximately 0.1 solar mass, ejected by the precursor outburst approximately 40 days before the major explosion. We interpret the NIR excess of emission as signature of material located further out, the origin of which has to be connected with documented mass-loss episodes in the previous years. Our modeling predicts bright neutrino emission associated with the shock break-out if the cosmic-ray energy is comparable to the radiated energy. We connect this phenomenology with the explosive ejection of the outer layers of the massive progenitor star, which later interacted with material deposited in the surroundings by previous eruptions. Future observations will reveal if the massive luminous progenitor star survived. Irrespective of whether the explosion was terminal, SN 2009ip brought to light the existence of new channels for sustained episodic mass loss, the physical origin of which has yet to be identified.

view

Hubble Space Telescope nickel hydrogen battery system briefing

The topics covered are presented in viewgraph form and include the following: the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Mission; system constraints; battery specification; battery module; simplified block diagram; cell design summary; present status; voltage decay; system depth of discharge; pressure since launch; system capacity; eclipse time vs. trickle charge; capacity test objectives; and capacity during tests.

Nawrocki, David

Evaluation of AMSOIL® -ANT PGW Coolant Formula Change and Super Space AMSOIL Development

AMSOIL ® Propylene Glycol Water (PGW), is the baselined internal thermal control fluid for multiple manned spacecraft including Gateway (HALO, IHAB, and ALM modules) and Orion. The use of AMSOIL-ANT PGW was originally validated through extensive NASA/Collins materials-compatibility testing (circa 2008–2015). However, in late 2019, AMSOIL implemented an unannounced change in its PG inhibitor package. Because of this reformulation, concerns around materials compatibility arose. Therefore, NASA initiated corrosion rate and coolant stability testing in 2024. Results showed that the reformulated AMSOIL PG produced substantially elevated corrosion rates in aluminum alloys (about two times when compared to the original AMSOIL PG formula) accompanied by visible surface degradation. Coolant stability testing indicated accelerated propylene-glycol breakdown as well, with glycolate levels about nine times higher than the original formulation. Based on these findings, NASA Materials & Processes and Thermal Control Systems groups have baselined the use of the original PGW chemistry for all spacecraft use. In response, AMSOIL produced a reformulated variant, “Super Space AMSOIL” (ANT-SSA), compliant with MPCV 70156.This paper documents the reformulation testing completed, details on the formulation change, and the development of Super Space AMSOIL.

Woody Beringer

Evaluation of AMSOIL ® -ANT PGW Coolant Formula Change and Super Space AMSOIL ® Development

AMSOIL ® Propylene Glycol Water (PGW), is the baselined internal thermal control fluid for multiple manned spacecraft including Gateway (HALO, IHAB, and ALM modules) and Orion. The use of AMSOIL-ANT PGW was originally validated through extensive NASA/Collins materials-compatibility testing (circa 2008–2015). However, in late 2019, AMSOIL implemented an unannounced change in its PG inhibitor package. Because of this reformulation, concerns around materials compatibility arose. Therefore, NASA initiated corrosion rate and coolant stability testing in 2024. Results showed that the reformulated AMSOIL PG produced substantially elevated corrosion rates in aluminum alloys (about two times when compared to the original AMSOIL PG formula) accompanied by visible surface degradation. Coolant stability testing indicated accelerated propylene-glycol breakdown as well, with glycolate levels about nine times higher than the original formulation. Based on these findings, NASA Materials & Processes and Thermal Control Systems groups have baselined the use of the original PGW chemistry for all spacecraft use. In response, AMSOIL produced a reformulated variant, “Super Space AMSOIL” (ANT-SSA), compliant with MPCV 70156.This paper documents the reformulation testing completed, details on the formulation change, and the development of Super Space AMSOIL.

David Brockett

Single battery power subsystems: On-line reconditioning

The effect of on-line reconditioning (deep discharge) on a single, Nickel-Hydrogen spacecraft battery in GEO and LEO is considered. A life cycle test was performed in both GEO and LEO to study the effect of reconditioning on the battery's end of discharge voltage (EODV). The results of these tests show that: LEO on-line reconditioning increased the EODV (by approximately 15 cycles to maximum EODV) and the EODV lasted for approximately 300 cycles, but GEO on-line reconditioning decreased the EODV slightly during the first six days and increases significantly after the seventh day. Based on the available data from the life cycle test, it has been concluded that a long life and stable voltage is realizable with the baseline architecture (single battery, single bus) without the need for reconditioning.

Tobias, R. F.

Influences of Introduced Yttrium Oxide Particles on Superalloy 718

Additive manufacturing has proven useful for introducing oxide particles into superalloys, to provide oxide dispersion strengthening (ODS) at high temperatures. This study screened how such an approach can influence microstructure and failure modes for superalloy 718. The objective of this study was to compare tensile and creep failure modes for additively manufactured superalloy 718 having introduced oxide particles. Fine yttrium-oxide (yttria) particles were introduced into 718 powder using two different powder mixing methods. Additive manufacturing by laser powder bed fusion was then used to prepare specimen blanks for each case, oriented parallel and transverse to the building direction. These were subsequently given consistent stress relief, hot isostatic pressurization, and final heat treatments, then subjected to tensile and creep tests at varied temperatures. Additively manufactured 718 without ODS (“no-ODS”) had nearly equiaxed grains at 50 μm in width. Roll-mixed ODS material had a bimodal grain size distribution, with fine grains at 9 μm and coarse grains at 66 μm in average width. The fine grains were elongated about 5x in the building direction. Acoustic-mixed ODS materials had grains at 10 μm in width that were elongated about 10x in the build direction. Compared to no-ODS, roll-mixed and acoustic mixed ODS materials did not show improved tensile strengths at room temperature, 760 °C, and 1093 °C. The tensile failure strains parallel to the building direction of roll-mixed ODS material were lowest in these tests. Flattened clumps of yttria had formed transverse to the building direction in roll-mixed material, which were easily cracked. Creep rupture response at 760 °C in the building direction was highest for acoustic-mixed material test. Creep tests at 1093 °C showed varied results, with low rupture lives associated with enhanced cavitation at grain boundaries and surface oxidation. Transverse to the building direction, all three materials had low failure strains in tests at 760 °C. The elongated grain boundaries failed readily in all transverse specimens tested at 760 °C and 1093 °C.

oxide dispersion strengthening