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DOE OSTI2026

Many-Body Benchmark of Electronic Charge and Spin Densities for Li 1–x NiO 2

Accurate benchmarks are particularly important for highly correlated oxides as mean-field approximations often fail to describe the subtle balance of charge transfer and magnetism in these materials with an accuracy comparable to experimental needs. Here we present accurate diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) results of the electronic charge and spin densities for the tunable highly correlated oxide Li 1–x NiO 2 for x = 0, 1/2, and 1. To enable quantitative comparisons, we introduce a robust density-partitioning scheme, extending Voronoi analysis to assign atomic charges from spatially noisy DMC densities. We then benchmark common approximations used in density functional theory (DFT). Comparison against DMC shows that r 2 SCAN delivers the most balanced performance across charge, spin, and radial density descriptors, nearly reproducing DMC results for LiNiO 2 and apical Ni sites in Li 0.5 NiO 2 . Hybrid functionals (PBE0, SCAN0) perform unexpectedly poorly, and PBE + U + V yields inconsistent trends between charge and spin densities. Therefore, the r 2 SCAN functional minimizes errors relative to DMC while capturing the variable valence of the Ni ion and also retaining the computational efficiency of DFT for large-scale simulations of the tunable structural and electronic phases of Li1−xNiO2. Our study highlights the importance of accurate benchmarking of the fundamental quantities involved in DFT to select appropriate DFT approximations in order to advance the predictive modeling of charge-transfer-driven phenomena in correlated electron systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust Data-Driven Predictive Run-to-Run Control for Automated Serial Sectioning

This letter presents a one-step predictive run-to-run controller (R2R-MPC) for the automation of mechanical serial sectioning (MSS), a destructive material analysis process. To address the inherent uncertainty and disturbances in the MSS process, a robust closed-loop approach is presented. Here, the robust R2R-MPC models the uncertainty of the MSS process using a linear differential inclusion. As an analytical model of the MSS process is unavailable, the differential inclusion is identified from historical data. The R2R-MPC is posed as an optimization problem that computes incremental changes to the control input which minimize the worst-case material removal errors. This optimization-based controller is combined with a run-to-run controller to provide integral action that rejects constant disturbances and tracks constant reference removal rates. To demonstrate the efficacy of our robust R2R-MPC, we present simulation results which compare the presented controller with a conventional non-robust R2R.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

$Z$-Pinch Interferometry Analysis With the Fourier-Based TNT Code

Here, we present the analysis of interferometry diagnostics with the user-friendly Talbot Numerical Tool (TNT), a Fourier-based postprocessing code that enables real-time assessment of plasma systems. TNT performance was explored with visible and infrared interferometry in pulsed-power-driven Z -pinch configurations to expand its capabilities beyond Talbot X-ray interferometry in the high-intensity laser environment. TNT enabled accurate electron density characterization of magnetically driven plasma flows and shocks through phase-retrieval methods that did not require data modification or masking. TNT demonstrated enhanced resolution, detecting below 4 % fringe shift, which corresponds to 8.7 × 10 15 cm –2 within 28 μ m, approaching the laser probing system limit. TNT was tested against a well-known interferometry analysis software, delivering an average resolving power nearly ten times better (~28 μ m versus ~ 210 μ m) when resolving plasma ablation features. TNT demonstrated higher sensitivity when probing sharp electron density gradients in supersonic shocks. A maximum electron areal density of 4.1 × 10 17 cm –2 was measured in the shocked plasma region, and a minimum electron density detection of ~ 1.0 × 10 15 cm –2 was achieved. When probing colliding plasma flows, the calculations of the effective adiabatic index and the associated errors were improved from γ* = 2.6 ± 1.6 – 1.4 ± 0.2 with TNT postprocessing, contributing valuable data for the interpretation of radiative transport. Additional applications of TNT in the characterization of pulsed-power plasmas and beyond are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distribution Substation Planning Toolkit (dsp-toolkit) v1.0

The Distribution Substation Planning Toolkit (DSP Toolkit) is a software suite designed to streamline the planning and optimization of distribution substations. This toolkit offers a comprehensive set of tools and APIs for data curation, short-term electric load forecasting, and weather-sensitive load adjustment, making it an essential resource for utility companies, engineers, and researchers. Features • Data Preprocessing and Curation: Efficiently manage and preprocess large datasets to ensure high-quality input for analysis. • Short-Term Load Forecasting: Utilize data-driven models to predict short-term electric loads accurately. • Weather-Sensitive Modeling: Automatically adjust load forecasts based on weather data to predict future peak demands more precisely. Uses The DSP Toolkit is ideal for planning and optimizing distribution substations, providing a user-friendly interface and comprehensive documentation. It is suitable for both novice and experienced users, facilitating efficient and accurate planning processes. Advantages • Efficiency: Automates complex planning tasks, reducing manual effort and minimizing errors. • Scalability: Handles large datasets and complex models, making it suitable for large-scale projects. • Community and Support: Open-source with active community contributions, ensuring continuous improvement and support. • Extensibility: Easily extendable with custom modules and plugins, allowing users to tailor the toolkit to their specific needs. The DSP Toolkit stands out by offering a robust, flexible, and user-friendly solution for distribution substation planning. Public Abstract

Li, Han [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LB↗

DOE OSTI2026

Validating a Dynamic PWR Safety and Security Model?

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are assessed for safety and security using separate models that cannot capture how an attacker's decisions and a plant's response unfold together in real time, leaving regulators and operators without a complete picture of true plant vulnerability. Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods treat adversarial events as fixed initiators with predetermined outcomes, and are structurally incapable of representing the time-dependent interplay between physical security events, safety system response, and operator mitigative actions. At Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I contributed to the development and validation of Modeling and Analysis for Safety and Security using the Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). Where static PRA relies on event-tree logic that cannot evolve mid-scenario, MASS-DEF couples a time-dependent dynamic PRA tool EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams) with attack simulation software, allowing attacker behavior, plant system states, and operator actions to interact across time. My work focused on validating a general Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model. I traced model logic against PWR plant to identified errors in logic and confirm accuracy. I then built and tested attack scenarios against a general PWR model to verify that the model produced expected outcomes across all logical pathways. I also contributed a section to a related technical paper applying the same EMRALD platform to radiation dose modeling. Results show that MASS-DEF can quantitatively demonstrate that many plants exceed their regulatory security thresholds. This demonstrated margin provides a technically defensible basis for reducing the number of guards without compromising regulatory compliance. Physical security costs represent roughly 10% of annual operating budgets, making such reductions directly meaningful to INL's mission of sustaining existing commercial NPPs. This internship strengthened my understanding of nuclear systems, probabilistic modeling, and technical writing, and has solidified my pursuit of a career at a national laboratory.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated vehicle microscopic energy consumption study (AV-Micro): Data collection and model development

While the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system in automated vehicles (AVs) is expected to impact transportation energy significantly, existing AV energy consumption models only directly adopt those developed with Human-driven Vehicle (HV) data without even slight adaptation or calibration to accommodate unique AV energy consumption features. This study will investigate how accurately HV data-based models can predict the energy consumption of AVs. Empirical trajectory data and corresponding instantaneous energy consumption rates from both AVs and HVs were collected. We adopted two classical HV data-based models to fit these data. The calibration results indicated that these models yield around 20 30% prediction errors for AVs. To further improve the prediction accuracy, this study designed an AV-Micro model by incorporating components of multiple classic energy consumption models that better capture ACC energy consumption features, including piecewise driving behavior. With this, the AV-Micro model achieves lower than 10% prediction errors. The AV-Micro model’s high consistency across different test runs was verified with statistical significance tests, demonstrating its adaptability in different driving profiles. To confirm the discrepancies between the energy consumption features of AVs and HVs, more statistical significance tests were conducted to show that the AV-Micro model cannot be directly applied to HV data. The findings by calibrated AV-Micro models revealed that AVs consume approximately 80.5–146.4 J more energy than HVs for each meter traveled. Furthermore, the frequency analysis of energy consumption indicates that there is still some room for AVs to improve energy efficiency, particularly given their larger amplitude high-frequency fluctuations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A 30-yr high-resolution weather research and forecasting model downscaling data over California and Nevada

This dataset presents a 30-year high resolution meteorological dataset obtained using the WRF model (Advanced version Research WRF version 4.4). We used WRF and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 as initial and boundary conditions to generate gridded meteorological variables. A large number of surface weather stations was used for model validation. A multi-physics analysis was first developed to identify a good physics suite extended from 6 November 00 UTC to 10 November 23 UTC, 2018, which included the Camp Fire in northern California. Based on the best physics suite, the downscaling dataset extends from 1 December to 28 February, 1990–2021 and the horizontal domain has 1.5 km grid spacing covering the entire states of California and Nevada in the United States. Comparisons between hourly surface observations and WRF simulations of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds show mean absolute errors on the order of (1.6-2.0 C), (10 %) and 1.2–1.5 m s -1 , respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power modeling of degraded PV systems: Case studies using a dynamically updated physical model (PV-Pro)

Power modeling, widely applied for health monitoring and power prediction, is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. The most common approach for power modeling uses a physical equivalent circuit model, with the core challenge being the estimation of model parameters. Traditional parameter estimation either relies on datasheet information, which does not reflect the system's current health status, especially for degraded PV systems, or requires additional I-V characterization, which is generally unavailable for large-scale PV systems. Thus, we build upon our previously developed tool, PV-Pro (originally proposed for degradation analysis), to enhance its application for power modeling of degraded PV systems. PV-Pro extracts model parameters from production data without requiring I-V characterization. This dynamic model, periodically updated, can closely capture the actual degradation status, enabling precise power modeling. PV-Pro is compared with popular power modeling techniques, including persistence, nominal physical, and various machine learning models. The results indicate that PV-Pro achieves outstanding power modeling performance, with an average nMAE of 1.4 % across four field-degraded PV systems, reducing error by 17.6 % compared to the best alternative technique. Furthermore, PV-Pro demonstrates robustness across different seasons and severities of degradation. The tool is available as a Python package at https://github.com/DuraMAT/pvpro.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 gravitational lensing and SDSS BOSS cross-correlation measurement and constraints on gravity with the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic

We derive new constraints on the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic as a test of gravity, combining the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing map estimated from Data Release 6 (DR6) of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope with Sloan Digital Sky Survey III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS BOSS) CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We develop an analysis pipeline to measure the cross-correlation between CMB lensing maps and galaxy data, following a blinding policy and testing the approach through null and consistency checks. By testing the equivalence of the spatial and temporal gravitational potentials, the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic can distinguish Λ⁢ CDM from alternative models of gravity. We find 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.555) = 0.3⁢1$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$ for Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and CMASS data at 68.28% confidence level, and 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.316) = 0.4⁢9$^{+0.14}_{−0.11}$ for the ACT and LOWZ. Systematic errors are estimated to be 3% and 4%, respectively. Including CMB lensing information from Planck PR4 results in 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.555) = 0.3⁢4$^{+0.05}_{−0.05}$ with CMASS and 𝐸 𝐺 ⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.316) = 0.4⁢3$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$ with LOWZ. These are consistent with predictions for the Λ⁢ CDM model that best fits the Planck CMB anisotropy and SDSS BOSS baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), where 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺⁡}$(𝑧 eff =0.555) =0.401 ± 0.005 for CMB lensing combined with CMASS and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 eff = 0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 combined with LOWZ. We also find 𝐸 𝐺 to be scale independent, with probability to exceed >5%, as predicted by general relativity. The methods developed in this work are also applicable to improved future analyses with upcoming spectroscopic galaxy samples and CMB lensing measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining gravity with a new precision 𝐸 𝐺 estimator using Planck + SDSS BOSS data

The 𝐸 𝐺 statistic is a discriminating probe of gravity developed to test the prediction of general relativity (GR) for the relation between gravitational potential and clustering on the largest scales in the observable Universe. We present a novel high-precision estimator for the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic using CMB lensing and galaxy clustering correlations that carefully matches the effective redshifts across the different measurement components to minimize corrections. A suite of detailed tests is performed to characterize the estimator’s accuracy, its sensitivity to assumptions and analysis choices, and the non-Gaussianity of the estimator’s uncertainty is characterized. After finalization of the estimator, it is applied to Planck CMB lensing and SDSS CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We report the first harmonic space measurement of 𝐸 𝐺 using the LOWZ sample and CMB lensing and also updated constraints using the final CMASS sample and the latest Planck CMB lensing map. We find $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+CMASS}_{𝐺}$ = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$⁢(68.27%) and $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+LOWZ}_{𝐺}$ = 0.4⁢0$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$⁢(68.27%), with additional subdominant systematic error budget estimates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Using Ω m,0 constraints from Planck and SDSS BAO observations, Λ⁢CDM-GR predicts 𝐸$^{GR}_ {𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.555) = 0.401 ± 0.005 and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 at the effective redshifts of the CMASS and LOWZ based measurements. We report the measurement to be in good statistical agreement with the Λ⁢CDM-GR prediction and report that the measurement is also consistent with the more general GR prediction of scale independence for 𝐸 𝐺 . Furthermore, this work provides a carefully constructed and calibrated statistic with which 𝐸 𝐺 measurements can be confidently and accurately obtained with upcoming survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improvement and Verification of Online Cross Section Generation Capability of Griffin for TRISO-fueled Reactors

Griffin, a MOOSE-based reactor multiphysics code jointly developed by Idaho National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory under the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s NEAMS program, has pursued the development of an online multigroup cross section generation capability for a few years to enable high-fidelity, problem-dependent neutronics analyses of advanced thermal reactors. Recent advancements in Griffin’s online multigroup cross section generation capability have significantly improved the accuracy, robustness, and efficiency of self-shielding calculations for both prismatic and pebble-bed TRISO-fueled reactor applications. Key developments include a unified fuel self-shielding method applicable to both TRISO and annular compact/spherical shell fuel zone geometries; an advanced Dancoff Category-based Equivalence Theory using a bell function for non-fuel resonance treatment, achieving more than an order-of-magnitude speedup compared to the Tone method; an on-the-fly multigroup equivalence approach to mitigate group condensation errors; and a streaming correction method for pebble-bed homogenization. A proof-of-concept demonstration of on-the-fly group condensation with consistent P0 transport correction was also achieved. The method reproduced direct fine-group solutions with excellent accuracy (eigenvalue errors within 10 pcm and pin-power differences within 0.5%), but due to performance limitations of the current fixed-source solver, improvements to solver efficiency will be addressed in future work. Verification tests were performed on graphite-moderated TRISO-fueled two-dimensional core benchmark problems representing gas-cooled microreactors, heat pipe-cooled microreactors, gas-cooled pebble-bed reactors, and fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactors. Across all cases, Griffin showed excellent agreement with Serpent2 continuous energy Monte Carlo solutions: eigenvalue errors within 200 pcm, pin-power root-mean-square errors within 2%, and control rod and drum worth errors less than 2%. It should be noted that, for the benchmark problem, cross section generation contributed less than 3% of the total simulation times. These results demonstrate that Griffin’s online cross section generation capability delivers accurate and efficient reactor physics solutions across a wide spectrum of TRISO-fueled advanced reactor designs. With further improvements to the fine-group fixed-source solver and planned extensions to depletion, transients, and coupled neutron–gamma transport, Griffin will be well-positioned to become a powerful and comprehensive tool for advanced reactor analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development and implementation of high-throughput proteomic and metabolomics assays by using advanced chromatographic and mass spectrometric systems (CRADA Final Report)

The mission of this CRADA with Agilent was to couple powerful MS platforms (QQQ, IM-QTOFMS) with Agilent’s novel Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (UHPLC) fast metabolomic workflows and perform ABF Machine Learning (ML) to generated datasets. Agilent transferred UHPLC methods to PNNL and LBNL and methods were implemented and demonstrated in both labs, achieving total acquisition times of < 10 min. Metabolites analyzed using Agilent’s shared methods included metabolites from central carbon metabolism, common across hosts, and metabolites unique to engineered strains. Standards were acquired in an UHPLC-Drift Tube Ion Mobility Mass Spectrometer (DTIMS) system for the first time within the context of ABF and methods were optimized based on Agilent’s protocols. Samples from ABF hosts Pseudomonas putida, Aspergillus pseudoterreus, Aspergillus niger and Rhodosporidium toruloides were analyzed using the UHPLC-DTIMS platform for a total of 276 runs. A data analysis workflow compatible with the Experimental Data Depot (EDD) and completely shareable was developed for the acquired UHPLC-DTIMS data. Samples were analyzed using a Data Independent Acquisition Approach (DIA), which for most of the standards provided more transitions therefore increasing detection confidence. Using the data acquired by PNNL, LBNL, and Agilent’s specifications from previous ML projects, SNL applied an ensemble ML strategy to pick the best performing model for automated LC-method selection. Finally, with the contribution of the participant labs and Agilent, SNL developed an Automated Method Selection (AMS) software tool to predict the best liquid chromatography method for analysis of any new molecules of interest. Samples with novel pathways and new metabolite targets of interest are generated at a high pace in the ABF. Overall, the project advanced rapid metabolomics by combining liquid chromatography, ion mobility spectrometry, and data-independent mass spectrometry with machine learning. This multidimensional approach uses retention time, collision cross-section, precursor mass, and fragment-ion information to distinguish chemically similar metabolites that can be difficult to resolve using conventional liquid- or gas-chromatography methods. The resulting workflow also provided automated metabolite-identification error estimates, addressing a recognized need for statistical confidence measures in metabolomics.

Petzold, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National L↗

DOE OSTI2024

Fine Temperature Grid Continuous Energy Cross Section Generation for Monte Carlo Analysis of Xe-100 Design

The standard “A Compact ENDF (ACE)” data libraries used by Monte Carlo based reactor physics codes calculations are provided by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) with a temperature interval mostly of 300 K (e.g. 300 K, 600 K, 900 K) for the cross sections and between 100 K and 200 K for the thermal scattering libraries (TSL). However, some codes such as MCNP lack capability to perform on-the-fly temperature interpolation during simulation both for neutron and TSL cross-sections. To evaluate the impact related to Doppler broadening and spectrum shift associated with TSL changes, this paper explores the potential of adopting a temperature grid finer than the ones contained in the standard data libraries. A 50 K temperature grid was employed to quantify the error in neutronics calculations due to temperature grid resolution. This was achieved by comparing the results of this study (50 K temperature interval) against the results obtained with standard data libraries (>100 K temperature interval). While the adopted grid primarily relies on the ENDF/B-VII.1 library, for neutron cross-sections, it utilizes ENDF/B-VIII.0 library for TSL. The analyses confirmed that the accuracy of neutronics calculations is satisfactory when using a 50 K temperature grid. Notably, adopting a 50 K temperature grid, as opposed to standard libraries or coarser temperature grids, could lead to a difference of no more than a few hundred pcm in dk for both fresh fuel and burnt fuel. The most sensitive reaction type to the temperature grid was as expected identified as the capture cross-section of U-238.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A robust approach to Gaussian process implementation

Abstract. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset has a large number of observations. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable GP algorithm, termed MuyGPs, which incorporates nearest-neighbor and leave-one-out cross-validation during training. This approach enables the evaluation of large spatial datasets with state-of-the-art accuracy and speed in certain spatial problems. Despite these advantages, conventional quadratic loss functions used in the MuyGPs optimization, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), are highly influenced by outliers. We explore the behavior of MuyGPs in cases involving outlying observations and, subsequently, develop a robust approach to handle and mitigate their impact. Specifically, we introduce a novel leave-one-out loss function based on the pseudo-Huber function (LOOPH) that effectively accounts for outliers in large spatial datasets within the MuyGPs framework. Our simulation study shows that the LOOPH loss method maintains accuracy despite outlying observations, establishing MuyGPs as a powerful tool for mitigating unusual observation impacts in the large data regime. In the analysis of US ozone data, MuyGPs provides accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its utility in managing data anomalies. Through these efforts, we advance the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts.

Mukangango, Juliette↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗