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DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bioinspired Dry‐Steam Superinsulation Straw Foam

Abstract Cellulosic materials offer sustainable advantages for building energy conservation. However, their development has been hindered by reduced thermal performance, often caused by structural collapse during the transition from solution to solid. Inspired by natural goose down, a bio‐based, lightweight insulation foam derived from agricultural waste straw is presented. Through in situ synthesis, bio‐silica fibers with branched structures capable of supporting hollow silica microspheres are fabricated. After steam‐mediated processing, the resulting foam exhibit low density (95 mg cm − 3 ), high porosity (95.5%), low thermal conductivity (0.03 ± 0.003 W mK −1 ), and a cyclic compressive strength of 90 kPa at 50% strain. Owing to the synergistic microstructure formed by branched bio‐fibers and hollow silica spheres, the bio‐silica foam exhibit outstanding thermal insulation performance relative to other bio‐based foams prepared by ambient drying. A passivated insulation panel is further developed by incorporating this material as the core component, achieving a thermal conductivity of 0.0275 W mk −1 and flexural strength of 6.85 MPa. The panel demonstrated durability with stable thermal performance throughout a 60‐day outdoor test. Moreover, the bio‐silica foam shows a carbon footprint of 7.50 kgCO₂ kg −1 at 70.2 wt.% silica, highlighting its promise as a sustainable insulation solution for green buildings.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Active learning using hybrid surrogate tool life modeling for machining process optimization

Here, this paper describes an active learning approach for part-to-part iterative machining process optimization using a hybrid surrogate tool life model. A probabilistic interpolating tool life model is developed by combining the empirical Taylor-type tool life equation and the model fit error. The probabilistic tool life model is then used to calculate the machining cost per part distribution. The optimal machining parameters are selected using an expected improvement in machining cost per part criterion. The method is validated numerically using experimental results; the results show a median convergence error of 2.2% after three tests over 400 simulations. The method is validated experimentally on two industrial applications for Ti-6Al-4V roughing resulting in a cost per part reduction greater than 23% after two tests. The described method is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimal machining parameters in an industrial production environment.

Active learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Crystal Growth Scale-Up and Stability of RbSr 2 X 5 :Eu Scintillators

The discovery and development of new scintillation materials support national security needs. In these applications, large volumes of scintillator crystals are needed to achieve efficient screening for contraband. Therefore, one important step in the discovery of new scintillator compositions is testing their feasibility for scale-up and their stability. In this work, high-quality Ø22 mm crystals of two new scintillators RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu were grown via the Vertical Bridgman method, and their scintillation properties were characterized. Here, the Ø22 mm RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu crystals could be grown with fast translation rates up to 3.5 mm/h. Both RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu had high scintillation performance, including light yields of 46,000 and 61,000 ph/MeV, respectively, for Ø22 × 35 mm crystals. Additionally, properties related to physical stability were investigated, including the coefficients of thermal expansion via high-temperature X-ray diffraction (HTXRD) as well as moisture sensitivity. HTXRD confirmed the absence of solid–solid phase transitions and showed that RbSr 2 Br 5 had minimal thermal expansion anisotropy compared to RbSr 2 I 5 and some other inorganic metal halide scintillators, which favors the growth of large-sized crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rethinking 𝛼−RuCl 3 : Parameters, models, and phase diagram

RuCl 3 was likely the first ever deliberately synthesized ruthenium compound, following the discovery of the 44 Ru element in 1844. For a long time it was known as an oxidation catalyst, with its physical properties being discrepant and confusing, until a decade ago when its allotropic form 𝛼−RuCl 3 rose to exceptional prominence. This “rediscovery” of 𝛼−RuCl 3 has not only reshaped the hunt for a material manifestation of the Kitaev spin liquid, but it has opened the floodgates of theoretical and experimental research in the many unusual phases and excitations that the anisotropic-exchange magnets as a class of compounds have to offer. Given its importance for the field of Kitaev materials, it is astonishing that the low-energy spin model that describes this compound and its possible proximity to the much-desired spin-liquid state is still a subject of significant debate ten years later. In the present study, we argue that the existing key phenomenological observations put strong natural constraints on the effective microscopic spin model of 𝛼−RuCl 3 , and specifically on its spin-orbit-induced anisotropic-exchange parameters that are responsible for the nontrivial physical properties of this material. These constraints allow one to focus on the relevant region of the multidimensional phase diagram of the 𝛼−RuCl 3 model, suggest an intuitive description of it via a different parametrization of the exchange matrix, offer a unifying view on the earlier assessments of its parameters, and bring closer together several approaches to the derivation of anisotropic-exchange models. We explore extended phase diagrams relevant to the 𝛼−RuCl 3 parameter space using quasiclassical, Luttinger-Tisza, exact diagonalization, and density-matrix renormalization-group methods, demonstrating a remarkably close quantitative accord between them on the general structure and hierarchy of the phases, with the zigzag, ferromagnetic, and incommensurate phases that are proximate to each other. As a result, one of the highlights is the detailed agreement on the nature of the incommensurate phases that realize two distinct counterrotating helical states.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided learning with curated prior genetic biomarkers for robust model interpretation

Abstract Motivation Knowledge-guided learning offers effective and robust model training strategies in data-scarce settings by incorporating established domain knowledge, thereby enhancing generalization, robustness, and interpretability. By contrast, conventional deep learning approaches rely purely on data-driven learning, which can limit robust model interpretability, particularly in high-dimensional settings with limited size samples. In computational biology, knowledge-guided learning has primarily leveraged network- and structural-based knowledge, leading to biologically interpretable representations and enhanced predictive performance compared to conventional approaches. However, curated biomarkers, one of the most accessible forms of biological knowledge, remain largely unexplored within knowledge-guided paradigms. Results In this study, we propose a model-agnostic training paradigm, Biomarker-driven Explainable Prior-guided Learning (BioExPL), that can be applied to any neural networks that incorporates curated prior knowledge. BioExPL enforces neural networks to reflect curated biomarker priors in their latent representations through a novel knowledge-alignment loss. BioExPL consistently demonstrated significantly improved predictive performance and enhanced model interpretability with minimized computational overhead in simulation studies and intensive experiments on multiple cancer datasets. BioExPL not only integrates prior curated knowledge into the model but also accurately identifies unknown associated signals additionally. BioExPL is model-agnostic and domain-independent, enabling its integration into diverse neural network architectures. Availability and implementation The open-source is publicly available at: https://github.com/datax-lab/BioExPL.

Baek, Beomsu [Department of Computer Science, Univ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Time-History Statistics of Soot Formation in A Model Gas Turbine Combustor

Soot formation is a complex dynamic and intermittent process determined by properties of the fuel, combustor design, and combustor operation. Although the major steps in soot formation (i.e., formation of precursors, inception, growth and evolution) are similar for a variety of carbonaceous fuels, applications, and operating conditions, it remains unclear when the temporal transition between these steps occurs. An engineering prediction tool coupled with computational fluid physics (CFD), therefore needs to accurately model all these complex steps. To develop such a model, we propose the time-history concept for understanding the time dependency of soot formation as a function of local properties (i.e., temperature, velocity, local fuel air ratio, etc.). We continue our previous work with modeling the DLR aero-combustor [1] with our updated in-house CFD code, Open National Combustion Code (OpenNCC), that now includes a Multiple Time-Scale Flamelet Progress Variable approach and a the semi-empirical two-equation soot model. We injected massless tracer particles upstream of the injector region of the combustor to collect time-history statistics of the solution variables. The correlations between the collected statistics with respect to the experimental soot volume fraction data showed that time-history effect of certain flow variables, including turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and multiple species is indeed important for soot formation. We then conducted a time-history based correlation analysis to determine the key species and the concentration ranges critical for soot formation (C6H5-based nucleation, acetylene-based surface growth, and oxidation with OH and O2). Based on the time-history correlation coefficient (THCC) analysis, we propose possible modifications to improve the current two-equation model.

LES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a high fidelity CFD model for solvent evaporation and transport in porous structure during battery electrode drying

An efficient battery manufacturing process is the key to the mass production of Electric Vehicles (EV), in which drying is one of the most energy-intensive steps significantly influencing the battery cell performance. An accurate 3D CFD model for drying is essential for predicting the drying mechanism and optimizing its parameters. By optimizing the drying process, it is possible to reduce energy consumption and cost during battery manufacturing, minimize binder loading and maximize active material loading to achieve superior electrochemical performances and facilitate wider and faster public adoption of EV. This project aims to optimize the drying process during electrode manufacturing by leveraging high-fidelity, porous electrode simulations for solvent evaporation. By optimizing this process, we seek to reduce energy consumption during battery manufacturing, while minimizing binder loading and maximizing active material loading, with the overall goal of enhancing electrical vehicle performance.

Horner, Jeffrey Scott [Sandia National Laboratorie↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Turbo-Design: Open-Source Radial Equilibrium Turbomachinery Solver: Part I - Turbines

Advances in 3D Geometrical Designs and Cooling have played a significant role in improving the efficiency of turbomachinery. However, these advancements must be effectively translated back to the modeler. Machine learning can facilitate this transition. Specifically, machine learning–based loss models can bridge the gap between 3D and 1D designs, enabling modelers not only to predict velocity triangles but also to extract additional geometric features. Currently, the design tools used at NASA have not been updated to support such integration—until now. TurboDesign is an open-source, Python-based framework that replaces TD2 (LEW-11029-1) and AXOD2 (LEW-16323-1), both of which are radial equilibrium solvers for axial turbines. The goal of this update is to enable the integration of machine learning loss models into radial equilibrium equations. Additionally, TurboDesign is designed to support radial machines. This paper presents the governing equations, the assumptions underlying the code, the integration of legacy loss models, an example of machine learning model integration, and a validation comparison with CFD. All code, tutorials, and documentation are available at: https://www.github.com/nasa/turbo-design

Radial Equilibrium↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Amine Oxide Polyzwitterion Brush Martini Model with Polarizable Water and Ions

Abstract In order to accurately simulate the fouling process of proteins onto polyzwitterion brushes, models that accurately capture the hydration properties and chain conformations of such brushes must first be established. We developed a Martini coarse-grained (CG) model for amine oxide polyzwitterion (PNOMA) brushes, a promising class of antifouling materials, in polarizable water and ions by fitting to all-atom bond and angle distributions, monomer hydration free energy, monomer–monomer distance potential of mean force (PMF), and monomer–salt radial distribution functions (RDFs). Martini 2.2P was selected for compatibility with the established polarizable water and ion models. For comparison with PNOMA, we also constructed models for conventional sulfobetaine (PSBMA) and phosphorylcholine (PMPC) polyzwitterions and the polycation PMETAC using established nonbonded bead types from the literature and refitting bond and angle potentials. We simulated each polymer brush chemistry for varying grafting density and chain length, validating brush height scaling relations against experimental data. The CG models captured the relative hydration strengths among different polyzwitterion chemistries, and brush heights extrapolated to higher molecular weights are in agreement with experimental ellipsometry data. We find that chain swelling of the superhydrophilic PNOMA brushes lies between that of the traditional polyzwitterions PSBMA/PMPC and the polycation PMETAC. For PNOMA brushes in NaCl solution, simulated brush height decreases with salt concentration due to the selectively strong interactions between amine oxide and sodium ions.

Walker, Christopher C. [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) v0.8 Model Documentation

The Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite, or PRAS, is a software package for studying power system resource adequacy. It allows the user to simulate power system operations under a wide range of operating conditions, in order to study the system's risk of failing to meet demand due to a resource shortfall, and identify the time periods and regions in which that risk occurs. This reports documents version 0.8 of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Commutative Algebra Modeling in Materials Science – A Case Study on Metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs)

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a class of important crystalline and highly porous materials whose hierarchical geometry and chemistry hinder interpretable predictions in materials properties. Commutative algebra is a branch of abstract algebra that has been rarely applied in data and material sciences. We introduce the first ever commutative algebra modeling and prediction in materials science. Specifically, category-specific commutative algebra (CSCA) is proposed as a new framework for MOF representation and learning. It integrates element-based categorization with multiscale algebraic invariants to encode both local coordination motifs and global network organization of MOFs. These algebraically consistent, chemically aware representations enable compact, interpretable, and data efficient modeling of MOF properties such as Henry’s constants and uptake capacities for common gases. Compared to traditional geometric and graph-based approaches, CSCA achieves comparable or superior predictive accuracy while substantially improving interpretability and stability across data sets. By aligning commutative algebra with the chemical hierarchy, the CSCA establishes a rigorous and generalizable paradigm for understanding structure and property relationships in porous materials and provides a nonlinear algebra-based framework for data-driven material discovery.

Khaemba, Caleb S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Used Nuclear Fuel Management Using the Next Generation System Analysis Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is leading the National effort to manage the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, encompassing the safe transportation, storage/staging, and/or eventual disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is DOE’s discrete-event, agent-based simulation tool designed to model the full life cycle of UNF from reactor discharge to final disposal. NGSAM supports the DOE Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition by enabling a detailed, scenario-based analysis of logistics, infrastructure, and shipping strategies. NGSAM replaces legacy models with a modern, flexible platform built on Repast Simphony and enhanced by the Process Analysis Tool. NGSAM simulates the movement and interaction of individual fuel assemblies with system components such as canisters, casks, railcars, and facilities. The model integrates with the Java Transportation Operations Model to plan and execute transportation scenarios, supporting both constrained and unconstrained resource allocation. Key features include customizable allocation and acceptance algorithms, detailed facility-level operations, and a Quick Edit tool for rapid scenario adjustments. NGSAM supports multimodal transportation modeling (e.g. rail, road, barge) and provides comprehensive cost, schedule, and infrastructure data. NGSAM utilizes data from sources such as DOE’s STANDARDS UNF database and DOE’s Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation, while also allowing user-defined inputs for scenario customization. NGSAM enables stakeholders to evaluate complex UNF management strategies, assess system performance under varying assumptions, and inform decision making for future infrastructure investments. Its modular architecture and integration with other Integrated Waste Management System tools make it a critical asset for planning the safe and efficient disposition of the Nation’s growing UNF inventory.

Craig, Brian [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)]↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational modeling of coupled mechanical damage and electrochemistry in ternary oxide composite electrodes

Performance degradation of ternary layered oxide cathodes largely originates from their loss of structural integrity in cyclic usage. Mechanical damage, such as intergranular fracture of the active particles, is not only a mechanical cleavage process but also interferes with electrochemical kinetics such as infiltration of liquid electrolyte, surface corrosion of the constituent primary particles, and may eventually isolate the primary grains from the electron conducting network. Here, in this work, we develop a computational framework that integrates electrochemistry of a LiNi x Mn y Co 1−x−y O 2 (NMC) composite cathode with mechanical damage of the active particles. To fully examine the intricate chemomechanical behavior of the electrode, we evaluate the effects of the anisotropic material properties, the influence of mechanical potential on Li transport, and the concurrent intergranular fracture and electrolyte penetration along the grain boundaries upon multiple cycles. Electrolyte infiltration benefits capacity retention but aggravates further mechanical damage by corrosion. Structural failure mostly occurs in the first charging due to the anisotropic mechanical strain between the primary grains, while the resulting damage remains stable in the later few cycles. The results are consistent with experimental observations and the integration of electrochemistry and mechanical failure enables a step further understanding of the complex mechanism of battery degradation.

Battery degradation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectroscopy in Nanoscopic Cavities: Models and Recent Experiments

The ability of nanophotonic cavities to confine and store light to nanoscale dimensions has important implications for enhancing molecular, excitonic, phononic, and plasmonic optical responses. Spectroscopic signatures of processes that are ordinarily exceedingly weak such as pure absorption and Raman scattering have been brought to the single-particle limit of detection, while new emergent polaritonic states of optical matter have been realized through coupling material and photonic cavity degrees of freedom across a wide range of experimentally accessible interaction strengths. In this review, we discuss both optical and electron beam spectroscopies of cavity-coupled material systems in weak, strong, and ultrastrong coupling regimes, providing a theoretical basis for understanding the physics inherent to each while highlighting recent experimental advances and exciting future directions.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Parametric Battery Model for the Conceptual Design of Electric Aircraft

Electric aircraft conceptual designs usually have an assumed specific power and specific energy for the aircraft’s energy storage system that dictates the total capacity and the peak power available. The specific energy and power are inherently linked to the state-of-charge and discharge rate from which they were derived; therefore, they will not directly correspond to the diverse circumstances encountered in various aircraft missions and flight segments. These parameters turn the battery system into a black box, disregard potential electrical restrictions, and disallow the aircraft and battery to be optimized as a system. Peering into this box, this study highlights the importance of incorporating a parametric battery model into the conceptual design workflow by splitting high-level terms such as power into voltage and current and investigating their variability during the discharge process. Through the modeling of these more detailed parameters, this methodology shows the feasibility of using low states-of-charge for contingency operations, including the end of the reserve mission, expanding the amount of usable capacity for electric aircraft. Stark differences in aircraft capabilities can arise between varying fidelity battery models due to late-mission, high-power flight operations. This parametric battery model effectively captures these differences by evaluating the limitations that arise within the individual battery cells and the aircraft powertrain. This paper shows that the unusable charge of a battery is set by the balked landing power requirement and can realistically range from 5% to 44% based on assumptions. This sets the analog to unusable fuel capacity in aircraft with liquid fuel systems. Needing only aircraft- and mission-level inputs and only seconds of run time, this model is a prime fit for the fast, accurate exploration of the electric aircraft conceptual design space.

Battery↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Multi-agent Large Language Model Reasoning for Autonomous Heterogeneous Catalyst Discovery

Artificial intelligence is reshaping scientific exploration, but most methods automate procedural tasks without engaging in scientific reasoning, limiting autonomy in discovery. We demonstrate that hierarchical agentic large language model reasoning can efficiently drive simulation and scientific exploration. Across two chemical applications, CO adsorption on Cu surface transition metal adatoms and on M–N–C catalysts, reasoning-guided exploration reduces required atomistic simulations by up to 90% relative to heuristic or random selection. Comparisons across single-agent, multi-agent, and stochastic baselines show that hierarchical strategies yield more coherent and information-efficient search trajectories. Reasoning traces reveal chemically grounded decisions that cannot be explained by semantic bias or stochastic sampling. We realize these agentic reasoning strategies in Materials Agents for Simulation and Theory in Electronic-structure Reasoning (MASTER), a multimodal system that translates natural language into density functional theory workflows. Altogether, multi-agent collaboration accelerates heterogeneous catalyst discovery and marks a step toward more autonomous, reasoning-guided scientific exploration.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design and Modeling of the Charge Readout of a SiMOS Quantum Dot with a Single Electron Transistor and CryoCMOS

Single electron spin qubits trapped in SiMOS quantum dots are a promising technology for scaling to thousand- or million-qubit systems due to their compatibility with mature CMOS manufacturing processes. A readout system that combines a single electron transistor with a custom cryogenic CMOS amplification and digitization chain offers key advantages by avoiding the use of bulky RF components or room-temperature interconnects. We present design techniques and simulation results for an optimized qubit-SET cryoCMOS interface, culminating in the design of the QNDR1 ASIC, the first cryogenic readout ASIC designed under the Quandarum project, which targets the development of a many-channel spin qubit based detector for use in high energy physics.

Quinn, Adam [Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000605056371)↗