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Results for “grey-box predictive energy model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Stoichiometry dependent properties of cerium hydride: An active learning developed interatomic potential study

Cerium hydride has a variety of interesting properties, including a known lattice contraction and densification with increasing hydrogen content. However, precise stoichiometric control is not experimentally straightforward and ab initio approaches are not computationally feasible for many properties such as melting and low temperature diffusion. Therefore, we develop a machine-learned interatomic potential for cerium hydride that is valid for H to Ce ratios from 2.0 to 3.0. A query-by-committee active learning approach is used to develop the training set. Leveraging classical molecular dynamics simulations, we assess a range of properties and provide fundamental mechanisms for the trends with stoichiometry. Finally, a majority of the properties follow the trend of lattice contraction, being governed by the stronger lattice binding induced by adding octahedral atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Challenges and Prospects of Sodium‐Ion and Potassium‐Ion Batteries for Mass Production

The exponential growth of the lithium‐ion (LIB) market is causing a significant disparity between the supply chain and demand for its resources. In this regard, sodium‐ion and potassium‐ion batteries are promising alternatives to LIBs due to their low cost. However, the larger sizes of Na + and K + ions create challenges that prevent them from achieving energy densities comparable to LIBs while maintaining an acceptable cycle life. Here, in this perspective, the aim is to evaluate the status of Na‐ion and K‐ion batteries and the challenges associated with them on both fundamental and commercial levels. The focus is on the structural instability arising from phase transitions during cycling, intricate chemical degradation processes, and potential avenues for enhancing their performance with a specific goal of improving their viability for grid‐scale energy storage. Materials production and abundance limitations for the chemistries of the state‐of‐the‐art materials and account for critical parameters from both the perspective of researchers and investors are analyzed. This analysis aims to provide insights into the strategic trade‐offs required to effectively implement the technology in real‐world applications, such as grid‐scale storage and other areas. Furthermore, the utilization of metals with low or no supply‐chain problems as an important aspect of these trade‐offs is considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the horizon of bio-naphtha beyond gasoline blend: property characterization and conversion opportunity assessment through technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses

Bio-naphtha, a common by-product of biorefineries, is expected to experience substantial growth in supply due to increasing demands for renewable diesel and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). However, demand for bio-naphtha itself as a gasoline blendstock is limited because of the electrification of light-duty vehicles. This work investigated valorization opportunities for bio-naphtha from catalytic fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathways. These opportunities include producing polymer-grade olefin via steam cracking, SAF via steam cracking followed by olefin oligomerization, and renewable aromatics benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) and hydrogen via catalytic reforming. Process models were developed in Aspen Plus V14 and Aspen HYSYS V14 to calculate the mass and energy balances for each conversion step. Technoeconomic assessment and life-cycle analysis were conducted to evaluate the minimum fuel/product selling price, conversion cost, and life-cycle CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction. Technoeconomic assessment results suggest a minimum fuel/product selling price as low as $1.9/kg of olefins, $6.30/gal of gasoline-equivalent SAF, and $1.2/kg of BTX without any incentives. For all pathways, these prices are dominated by bio-naphtha feedstock costs, which account for at least 76% of the total cost. Compared with petroleum baselines, bio-naphtha-derived SAF, olefins, and BTX can achieve significant CO2e emission reductions from the use of renewable carbon resources. The results of life-cycle analysis and subsequent technoeconomic assessment, incorporating carbon credits, indicate the economic viability of using bio-naphtha for polymer-grade olefin and BTX production, with product costs comparable to market prices.

Xu, Shuang↗
DOE OSTI2027

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Low-Temperature Gold Deposition Improves CdTe Back Contacts

Improved back contacts can benefit CdTe photovoltaics (PV). In this work, Cd(Se,Te) PV absorbers are cooled during Au evaporation to thermally quench a chemical reaction occurring between gold and CdTe and the generation of a reaction product that lowers device efficiency. Reducing substrate temperature enhances PV power conversion efficiency via open-circuit voltage and fill factor increases. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) reveals that lower temperature also reduces chemical perturbations of the CdTe, potentially linking back contact formation to a CdTe degradation product that hinders PV performance. Comparing reaction enthalpy and substrate heating energy shows that back contact formation by sputtering elemental metals onto ZnTe may exhibit a degradation pathway analogous to that of CdTe/Au reported here. Degradation-diminishing contact formation processes are therefore of general interest for optoelectronic devices, and the reduced substrate temperature in this study is one example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coordinated Natural Gas and Electric Planning: Case Studies of Current Approaches and Practices

This paper examines how natural gas and electric utilities across eight U.S. states and two Canadian provinces are beginning to coordinate historically separate planning processes in response to growing system interdependencies, policy mandates, aging infrastructure, and changing customer energy choices. Electricity planning has long relied on robust integrated resource planning frameworks that weigh numerous objectives, risks, and costs. Natural gas planning, on the other hand, is typically less transparent and more narrowly focused on safety and system integrity. As economic, reliability, and policy drivers place new and shared demands on both systems, jurisdictions and utilities are experimenting with approaches such as coordinated forecasting, non pipeline alternatives, and combined planning pilots. A few have issued regulatory or statutory directives for greater data sharing and methodological alignment. Case studies from British Columbia, California, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Québec, Rhode Island, and Washington illustrate a wide range of approaches to rethinking siloed planning. The paper identifies several common themes across the jurisdictions examined. It provides observations on the methods, processes, and organizational steps that may be needed in the future to address the challenges being faced by states and utilities. Lastly, it identifies some initial steps that states and utilities can consider if they would like to pursue more integrated, cost-effective, policy-aligned energy system planning.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A strong and ductile Super Kovar alloy via fully coherent nanoprecipitates

Emerging high-precision technologies demand materials with exceptional dimensional stability and mechanical robustness, as even microscopic thermomechanical deformation can cause functional failure. However, a fundamental trilemma exists: High strength, ductility, and low thermal expansion are mutually exclusive, as strengthening-induced lattice distortions compromise the spin-lattice coupling, which is essential for low thermal expansion. Here, we overcome this trilemma by designing “Super Kovar,” an Fe-Ni-Co-Al-Ta alloy, featuring fully coherent nanoprecipitates. It unifies a 1.0-gigapascal ultimate tensile strength and ∼39% elongation with a Kovar-grade thermal expansion of 3.81 × 10−6 K−1 (100 to 410 K). The key is a dense dispersion of L12 nanoprecipitates that form an almost strain-free coherent interface with the ferromagnetic matrix. Beyond providing precipitation strengthening, these coherent interfaces suppress intrinsic phonons of nanoprecipitates via elastic coupling while avoiding magnetic domain pinning to preserve the Invar effect of the matrix. This reduces the thermal expansion of the precipitates by 56% and achieves a fourfold enhancement in the strength-ductility product, establishing a paradigm for dimensionally stable, ultrastrong alloys.

Yu, Chengyi [University of Science and Technology ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Factors Influencing Gas Evolution from High‐Nickel Layered Oxide Cathodes in Lithium‐Based Batteries

Abstract Gas evolution from high‐nickel layered oxide cathodes (>90% Ni) remains a major issue for their practical application. Gaseous species, such as CO 2 , O 2 , and CO, that are evolved at high states of charge (SOC) worsen the overall safety of batteries, as pressure build‐up within the cell may lead to cell rupture. Since these gasses are produced during cathode degradation, tracking the formation of gasses is also important in diagnosing cathode failure. Online electrochemical mass spectrometry (OEMS) is a powerful in situ technique to study gas evolution from the cathode during high‐voltage charge. However, the differences in the OEMS experimental setups between different groups make it challenging to compare results between groups. In this perspective, the various factors that influence gas evolution based on the OEMS results collected in this group are presented. The focus is on the conditions that lead to gas release, with a particular emphasis on reactive oxygen formation and subsequent chemical reactions with the electrolyte. Promising strategies, such as electrolytes, compositional tuning, and surface coatings that are effective at suppressing gas evolution from the cathode are highlighted. Critical insights into mitigating cathode degradation and gas evolution are provided to guide the development of safer, high‐energy batteries.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Testing and Validation of Wireless Communication Architecture for Heliostat Fields: SIPS Final Report

This work focuses on the development and testing of a low-cost wireless communication system for heliostat fields, enabling significant capital costs reductions for concentrating solar thermal systems. Outputs of this work include a working demonstration of a multi-node communication system, clear reporting of system performance, and technical documentation of system development and architecture for reproducibility. Through this process, an open-source repository was created for manufacturing hardware at ~$30/heliostat. The system includes software for cybersecurity, achieving sub-second communication latencies and derisking of hardware for eventual scale-up to tens of thousands of heliostats. While the system is not currently off-the-shelf ready, there is now a clearly defined pathway for scaling up and completing the commercial development process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Research and Development Related to the Commercialization of Perovskite Radiation Detectors (CRADA Final Report)

This work will focus on the development of perovskite radiation detectors fabricated with nanocrystal, thick polycrystalline films, or single crystal materials. This will harness NREL’s instrumentation and expertise in a variety of research areas including but not limited to metal halide perovskites, device characterization, device packaging, accelerated lifetime testing, and ink chemistry development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cooperative and bifunctional Ga-Ca-Cr 2 O 3 @CaO structured monoliths as versatile platform for reactive capture of CO 2 and its subsequent conversion to ethylene

Cooperative and bifunctional materials (BFMs) that integrate adsorbents and catalysts offer a promising strategy for the reactive capture of CO 2 to produce valuable fuels and chemicals. In this study, we developed structured BFMs via 3D printing that combine CaO as an adsorbent with Ga–Ca–Cr 2 O 3 metal oxides as the catalyst for the reactive capture of CO 2 and its subsequent conversion to C 2 H 4 via the oxidative dehydrogenation of C 2 H 6 (CO 2 -ODHE). Three different Ga–Ca compositions were used to modify the catalyst surface characteristics and enhance C 2 H 4 selectivity. In these formulations, Ga ions stabilize the oxygen lattice of the BFM, while Ca ions interact strongly with Cr to form CaCrO 4 , thereby altering the oxygen species and enhancing the material’s basic properties. Under adsorption–reaction conditions at 600–650 °C, the optimal BFM achieved an excellent C 2 H 4 selectivity of 96.4 %, attributed to a balanced redox process and improved basicity that facilitate efficient C 2 H 6 conversion and rapid desorption of C 2 H 4 without excessive oxidation. Overall, this work provides new insights into the formulation of BFMs monoliths and highlights the critical role of catalytic surface modification in enhancing C 2 H 4 selectivity in the CO 2 -ODHE reactive capture process.

C2H4 production↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Building Performance: Field Results of Thin-Glass Triple-Pane Window Demonstrations

To meet California and the nation's ambitious energy targets, energy use in the building sector must drop dramatically. Windows continue to be the lowest thermally performing envelope system in the nation's buildings, resulting in poor overall envelope performance and potential impacts to human health and comfort. Current best practice new window performance is typically met by double-pane low-solar-gain glazing. Thin-glass triple-pane windows are a highly promising next step forward in performance and have been deployed in two California multi-family sites to quantify field performance and building energy savings. The technology assessed offers the performance benefits of traditional triple-pane but with little increase in weight or cost, enabling incremental costs competitive with alternative energy reduction solutions for the building envelope. This paper covers a detailed investigation into the demonstration project and measured performance benefits of the windows after a full year of data collection.

Hart, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2024

Li Stripping Behavior of Anode‐Free Solid‐State Batteries Under Intermittent‐Current Discharge Conditions

Anode‐free manufacturing holds promise to enable high energy densities and lower Lithium (Li)‐metal solid‐state batteries (LMSSBs). Nevertheless, in contrast to thick Li foil (>50 µm), the stripping capacity of in situ‐formed Li (10–30 µm) is limited due to diminished creep flow, resulting in reduced accessible capacity. This study explores the correlation between stripping capacity and surface roughness of garnet Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) solid electrolyte. The results reveal that stripping capacity can be enhanced through the surface modification of solid electrolytes. Additionally, this study scrutinizes the stripping behavior of in situ Li under intermittent‐current discharge conditions, which are more relevant to the operational conditions of electric vehicles (EVs). It is demonstrated that, when compared to constant‐current stripping, intermittent‐current stripping effectively suppresses void formation and enhances the stripping capacity of in situ Li by 40%. It is considered that the intermittent current inhibits the accumulation of Li vacancies, thereby delaying the void formation. These findings provide valuable insights into the development of high‐performance anode‐free LMSSBs for EVs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anode-less Solid-State Li–S Batteries Enabled by Fe-Stabilized Polysulfides

Anode-less solid-state lithium-sulfur batteries (SSLSBs) with lithium sulfide (Li 2 S) as the cathode promise a high energy density and ease of manufacturing. However, Li 2 S is plagued by poor conductivity, sluggish activation kinetics, and a poor cycle life. Here, in this study, we report an FeCl 3 -activated Li 2 S (FLS) cathode with solid-state polysulfide intermediates generated through a redox reaction between FeCl 3 and Li 2 S. This strategy is shown to boost the electrical conductivity of Li 2 S by 7 orders of magnitude and lower the activation barrier. During cycling, Fe plays a significant role in stabilizing the highly active polysulfide species, contributing to the exceptional electrochemical performance. The FLS cathode achieves 80% capacity retention over 500 cycles with >99% Li 2 S utilization. Furthermore, a Li-metal-free (anode-less) full cell retained over 80% of its initial capacity after 240 cycles. This work underscores the promise of leveraging Fe-stabilized polysulfides in enabling high-energy, long-lasting, solid-state Li-S batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

UL 1741SC Conformance Development, Evaluation, and Proposal [Slides]

V2G AC is a type of grid interconnection by mobile battery that transforms an EV into a DER with the potential to stabilize the grid and lower costs for electricity. UL 1741SC is a critical new standard to enable grid interconnection of V2G AC-capable vehicles, by defining requirements for V2G AC-intended EVSEs as a gatekeeper between the grid and the EV to support grid safety, such as through redundant voltage trip (namely oversight). EVSE manufacturers need a clear set of conformance test cases and criteria by which to evaluate their equipment and confirm the compliance with UL 1741SC, so that the EVSEs performs as intended for the grid safety. Hence, NLR identified necessary conformance tests and performed the tests identified to understand the maturity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ClassNMSW- a real-time classification approach for non-recycled municipal solid waste using hyperspectral imaging

Real-time classification of non-recycled municipal solid waste (NMSW) is essential for efficient valorization. This study introduces ClassNMSW, a comprehensive framework for classifying 22 NMSW subclasses under industrial constraints by using hyperspectral imaging (HSI). A primary innovation of this work is the development of a variance-controlled spectral extraction algorithm. Unlike traditional methods that rely on simple averaging, this approach systematically investigates the extent of pixel extraction to minimize the loss of critical chemical information while maximizing data reduction thus ensuring high spectral fidelity with low computational cost. The approach developed in this work integrates automated, computer-vision-based background removal, eliminating the need for the manual thresholding common in current literature. To resolve ambiguities among chemically similar subclasses, a tiered classification and multi-camera fusion strategy (NIR17 and NIR22) is implemented. Results demonstrate that ClassNMSW achieves an object-wise weighted accuracy of 98.70% for single-sensor configurations and 100% under sensor fusion. A novel rolling-window strategy satisfies desired end-to-end latency of <2 s, satisfying the strict deterministic requirements of high-speed industrial sorting environments. The ClassNMSW framework provides a scalable foundation for advancing circularity and resource recovery in large-scale waste valorization operations.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Intensity UV Exposure for the Rapid Screening of Silicon Photovoltaic Architectures

Advanced Si photovoltaic architectures incorporate different materials and processing pathways that influence degradation modes. Ultraviolet-induced degradation (UVID) is an understudied degradation mode for advanced cell architectures and is of increasing concern to industry due to growing adoption of UV-transparent encapsulation and bifacial technologies. In order to adopt new and evolving technologies confidently, novel component materials and processing techniques must be evaluated and designed for long-term stability, in addition to the conventional design focus on efficiency. In this work, a study protocol framework is presented for the rapid screening of unencapsulated devices against UVID. Unencapsulated passivated emitter rear contact (PERC) and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) devices were aged under different UV irradiance intensities and measured via conventional nondestructive electrical characterization methods to assess performance degradation. Based on the results, protocol efficacy and recommendations for further study are discussed. As a result, this work is part of a broader effort to develop rapid screening processes that cut across architectures and exposure conditions to aid module manufacturers in vetting new materials choices for long-term stability.

Accelerated exposure↗