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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The effect of ambient ozone exposure on three types of diabetes: a meta-analysis

Background: Ozone as an air pollutant is gradually becoming a threat to people's health. However, the effect of ozone exposure on risk of developing diabetes, a fast-growing global metabolic disease, remains controversial. Objective: To evaluate the impact of ambient ozone exposure on the incidence rate of type 1, type 2 and gestational diabetes mellitus. Method: We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases before July 9, 2022, to determine relevant literature. Data were extracted after quality evaluation according to the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and the agency for healthcare research and quality (AHRQ) standards, and a meta-analysis was used to evaluate the correlation between ozone exposure and type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The heterogeneity test, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias were performed using Stata 16.0. Results: Our search identified 667 studies from three databases, 19 of which were included in our analysis after removing duplicate and ineligible studies. Among the remaining studies, three were on T1D, five were on T2D, and eleven were on GDM. The result showed that ozone exposure was positively correlated with T2D [effect size (ES) = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.11] and GDM [pooled odds ratio (OR) = 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03]. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that ozone exposure in the first trimester of pregnancy might raise the risk of GDM. However, no significant association was observed between ozone exposure and T1D. Conclusion: Long-term exposure to ozone may increase the risk of T2D, and daily ozone exposure during pregnancy was a hazard factor for developing GDM. Decreasing ambient ozone pollution may reduce the burden of both diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lessons Learned from Three Agrivoltaic Installations in New Jersey

Agrivoltaics is a new technology that has the potential to positively impact commercial farming by combining agricultural practices with the generation of solar energy. While some yield reduction is to be expected, resulting from less sunlight reaching the plant canopy and ground occupied by support structures, the generated electricity provides a low-risk supplemental income to farmers. In order to combine farming with electricity generation, agrivoltaic systems use a lower ground coverage ratio compared to normal solar farms and the PV panels are often mounted higher above the ground in order to facilitate the movement of agricultural equipment and to reduce the contrast between shaded and non-shaded areas. With funding provided from the state of New Jersey and the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station (NJAES), we designed and installed three unique agrivoltaic research systems at Rutgers/NJAES farms. These projects were recently completed and are generating electricity that is exported to the grid. This paper discusses the lessons we have learned along the way, including all the steps necessary to see an agrivoltaic project through to completion.

Both, A. J. (ORCID:0000000150845296)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lessons Learned from Three Agrivoltaic Installations in New Jersey

Agrivoltaics is a new technology that has the potential to positively impact commercial farming by combining agricultural practices with the generation of solar energy. While some yield reduction is to be expected, resulting from less sunlight reaching the plant canopy and ground occupied by support structures, the generated electricity provides a low-risk supplemental income to farmers. In order to combine farming with electricity generation, agrivoltaic systems use a lower ground coverage ratio compared to normal solar farms and the PV panels are often mounted higher above the ground in order to facilitate the movement of agricultural equipment and to reduce the contrast between shaded and non-shaded areas. With funding provided from the state of New Jersey and the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station (NJAES), we designed and installed three unique agrivoltaic research systems at Rutgers/NJAES farms. These projects were recently completed and are generating electricity that is exported to the grid. This paper discusses the lessons we have learned along the way, including all the steps necessary to see an agrivoltaic project through to completion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lessons Learned from Three Agrivoltaic Installations in New Jersey

Agrivoltaics is a new technology that has the potential to positively impact commercial farming by combining agricultural practices with the generation of solar energy. While some yield reduction is to be expected, resulting from less sunlight reaching the plant canopy and ground occupied by support structures, the generated electricity provides a low-risk supplemental income to farmers. In order to combine farming with electricity generation, agrivoltaic systems use a lower ground coverage ratio compared to normal solar farms and the PV panels are often mounted higher above the ground in order to facilitate the movement of agricultural equipment and to reduce the contrast between shaded and non-shaded areas. With funding provided from the state of New Jersey and the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station (NJAES), we designed and installed three unique agrivoltaic research systems at Rutgers/NJAES farms. These projects were recently completed and are generating electricity that is exported to the grid. This paper discusses the lessons we have learned along the way, including all the steps necessary to see an agrivoltaic project through to completion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of calcite filler on carbonation behavior in a synthesized C‐S‐H binder

Widespread implementation of portland limestone cements (PLC) in industry has raised new questions about their carbonation resistance due to higher initial limestone content than ordinary portland cement. While carbonation of portland cement and each of its hydrate phases has been studied at a fundamental level, the integral role of how limestone fillers interact chemically or physically during carbonation necessitates further study. In this study, a C-S-H binder comprised of a highly reactive zeolite pozzolan and lime was used to evaluate the effect of varying calcite additions on carbonation behavior at a microstructural level. Fundamental insight into hydration kinetics and carbonation mechanisms of hydraulic binders was obtained via analysis of the C-S-H and calcite microstructure. X-ray microcomputed tomography (X-ray CT) was used to quantify microstructural changes, and the results showed a decrease in shrinkage for increased calcite dosages, with a ∼50% reduction observed for a 45% wt. calcite replacement level. Crystallographic and thermal analyses measured compositional changes in the binder and confirmed that shrinkage was related to the decalcification of C-S-H. Furthermore, the addition of calcite to the C-S-H binder effectively reduced the liquid-to-solid ratio, porosity, and amount of C-S-H present in these binders. Ultimately, these results help elucidate how the carbonation risks of PLC can be mitigated by proportioning the mixture water only to the reactive component of the binder.

C-S-H↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spinal Cord Dose Tolerance to Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

Spinal cord tolerance data for stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) were extracted from published reports, reviewed, and modelled. For de novo SBRT delivered in 1 to 5 fractions, the following spinal cord point maximum doses (D{sub max}) are estimated to be associated with a 1% to 5% risk of radiation myelopathy (RM): 12.4 to 14.0 Gy in 1 fraction, 17.0 Gy in 2 fractions, 20.3 Gy in 3 fractions, 23.0 Gy in 4 fractions, and 25.3 Gy in 5 fractions. For reirradiation SBRT delivered in 1 to 5 fractions, reported factors associated with a lower risk of RM include cumulative thecal sac equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions with an alpha/beta of 2 (EQD2{sub 2}) D{sub max} ≤70 Gy; SBRT thecal sac EQD2{sub 2} D{sub max} ≤25 Gy, thecal sac SBRT EQD2{sub 2} D{sub max} to cumulative EQD2{sub 2} D{sub max} ratio ≤0.5, and a minimum time interval to reirradiation of ≥5 months. Larger studies containing complete institutional cohorts with dosimetric data of patients treated with spine SBRT, with and without RM, are required to refine RM risk estimates.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variants in the MS4A cluster interact with soluble TREM2 expression on biomarkers of neuropathology

Recent evidence suggests that Alzheimer’s disease (AD) genetic risk variants (rs1582763 and rs6591561) of the MS4A locus are genome-wide significant regulators of soluble TREM2 levels such that the minor allele of the protective variant (rs1582763) is associated with higher sTREM2 and lower AD risk while the minor allele of (rs6591561) relates to lower sTREM2 and higher AD risk. Our group previously found that higher sTREM2 relates to higher Aβ 40 , worse blood–brain barrier (BBB) integrity (measured with the CSF/plasma albumin ratio), and higher CSF tau, suggesting strong associations with amyloid abundance and both BBB and neurodegeneration complicate interpretation. We expand on this work by leveraging these common variants as genetic tools to tune the interpretation of high CSF sTREM2, and by exploring the potential modifying role of these variants on the well-established associations between CSF sTREM2 as well as TREM2 transcript levels in the brain with AD neuropathology. Biomarker analyses leveraged data from the Vanderbilt Memory & Aging Project (n = 127, age = 72 ± 6.43) and were replicated in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (n = 399, age = 73 ± 7.39). Autopsy analyses were performed leveraging data from the Religious Orders Study and Rush Memory and Aging Project (n= 577, age = 89 ± 6.46). We found that the protective variant rs1582763 attenuated the association between CSF sTREM2 and Aβ 40 (β= -0.44, p-value= 0.017) and replicated this interaction in ADNI (β = -0.27, p = 0.017). We did not observe this same interaction effect between TREM2 mRNA levels and Aβ peptides in brain (Aβ total β = -0.14, p = 0.629; Aβ 1-38 , β = 0.11, p = 0.200). In contrast to the effects on Aβ, the minor allele of this same variant seemed to enhance the association with blood–brain barrier dysfunction (β = 7.0e-4, p = 0.009), suggesting that elevated sTREM2 may carry a much different interpretation in carriers vs. non-carriers of this allele. When evaluating the risk variant (rs6591561) across datasets, we did not observe a statistically significant interaction against any outcome in VMAP and observed opposing directions of associations in ADNI and ROS/MAP on Aβ levels. Together, our results suggest that the protective effect of rs1582763 may act by decoupling the associations between sTREM2 and amyloid abundance, providing important mechanistic insight into sTREM2 changes and highlighting the need to incorporate genetic context into the analysis of sTREM2 levels, particularly if leveraged as a clinical biomarker of disease in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Portal Venous Systemic Thrombosis in Patients with Cirrhosis Undergoing Splenectomy and Esophagogastric Devascularization

Objectives. The aim of the study is to develop a nomogram for predicting postoperative portal venous systemic thrombosis (PVST) in patients with cirrhosis undergoing splenectomy and esophagogastric devascularization. Methods. In total, 195 eligible patients were included. Demographic characteristics were collected, and the results of perioperative routine laboratory investigations and ultrasound examinations were also recorded. Blood cell morphological traits, including the red cell volume distribution width (RDW), mean platelet volume, and platelet distribution width, were identified. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were implemented for risk factor filtration, and an integrated nomogram was generated and then validated using the bootstrap method. Results. A color Doppler abdominal ultrasound examination on a postoperative day (POD) 7 (38.97%) revealed that 76 patients had PVST. The results of the multivariate logistic regression suggested that a higher RDW on POD3 (RDW3) (odds ratio (OR): 1.188, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.073–1.326), wider portal vein diameter (OR: 1.387, 95% CI: 1.203–1.642), history of variceal hemorrhage (OR: 3.407, 95% CI: 1.670–7.220), and longer spleen length (OR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.001–1.029) were independent risk parameters for postoperative PVST. Moreover, the nomogram integrating these four parameters exhibited considerable capability in PVST forecasting. The nomogram’s receiver operating characteristic curve reached 0.83 and achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 0.711 and 0.848, respectively, at its cutoff. The nomogram’s calibration curve demonstrated that it was well calibrated. Conclusion. The nomogram exhibited excellent performance in PVST prediction and might assist surgeons in identifying vulnerable patients and administering timely prophylaxis.

Chen, Miao↗
DOE OSTI2026

A transport-based framework for solidification cracking in Ni-based superalloys processed by laser powder bed fusion

Solidification cracking remains a persistent barrier to laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) processing of solid-solution-strengthened (SSS) Ni-based superalloys and is commonly attributed to carbide formation, liquation-type failure, or elemental segregation. In this work, the cracking behavior of three SSS Ni-based superalloys—Inconel 625 (625), Inconel 617 (617), and Haynes 230 (230)—is examined under comparable LPBF conditions to evaluate the origins of their cracking susceptibility. Carbides were present in both 625 and 230, yet cracking behavior differed significantly. MC-type carbides in 625 remain discrete and preserve liquid connectivity, whereas Cr-rich M23C6 carbides in 230 form at cellular triple junctions that bottleneck the interdendritic liquid network, influencing cracking through liquid connectivity rather than as an independent cause. Alloy 617 exhibited anomalous segregation without resolvable secondary phases yet cracked mildly, indicating that extensive carbide formation is not a prerequisite for cracking. To rationalize these observations, a transport-limited framework is proposed in which cracking occurs when terminal-liquid feeding cannot accommodate solidification-induced strain; among the mechanisms evaluated, this framework is most consistent with the physical constraints imposed by LPBF solidification. Transport-based crack-susceptibility indexes incorporating permeability, viscosity, and solidification kinetics distinguish the alloy hierarchy; permeability ratios Krat increased from approximately 7 (625) to 11.5 (617) and 14.5 (230), with corresponding increases in the μ-weighted mushy zone risk index (CSIMZRM). These results are consistent with transport-limited liquid feeding as a rate-limiting contributor to solidification cracking in LPBF-processed SSS Ni-based superalloys, providing a physically grounded basis for alloy and process design.

Hyer, Holden [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000343915561)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2021 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPRs ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar - to - diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the structural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the caverns drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns .

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Evaluation of Accelerated Basin De-Inventory Material Addition to Sludge Batch 11 (Rev. 1)

The Accelerated Basin De-inventory (ABD) program involves discarding spent nuclear fuel that is currently stored in L-Basin to the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) for vitrification. The first ABD discards will occur during the preparation of Sludge Batch (SB) 11. Savannah River Mission Completion has requested that the Savannah River National Laboratory assess the technical gaps related to the increased gadolinium poisoning requirement and the impacts of performing the Low Temperature Aluminum Dissolution (LTAD) process in Tank 51 with H-Canyon discards present. The following summarizes the evaluation of the impacts of increasing the quantity of gadolinium (and related topics) from what was previously evaluated in the SRNL studies of gadolinium-poisoned ABD material solubility, the overall ABD flowsheet review, and increasing the fissile mass loading in glass: 1) Based on literature surveys, there is no indication that organic interactions with gadolinium will be significant at the high pH (typically >13) conditions of the Concentration, Storage, and Transfer Facilities. Any interactions of gadolinium with organics in DWPF are not expected to adversely impact DWPF or downstream facilities. Thus, there is little-to-no residual risk from organic interactions with gadolinium [Gap closed]; 2) Adding depleted uranium to ABD material, targeting 235 U enrichment of 4.90% within each transfer window, will mitigate potential impacts from an increase in soluble 235 U enrichment during sludge washing and LTAD. The plan to take advantage of previous transfers and allow 235 U enrichment of >5% during the final transfer window carries a risk that Tank 51 supernate will have a 235 U enrichment of >5%, which should be evaluated for acceptance; 3) Increasing the gadolinium mass ratio to 3.0:1 Gd: 235 U(eq SLU ) should lead to the same or higher partitioning of gadolinium into the solid phase within the DWPF Chemical Process Cell, resulting in both liquid and solid phases with expected partitioning of Gd consistent with the prior solubility study [Gap closed for SB11]; 4) There are no expected impacts on DWPF melt temperature and melter operations due to the minimal ~0.2 weight percent (wt%) increase in Gd concentration relative to previous sludge batches [Gap closed for SB11]; 5) As observed previously, Gd is expected to enter the off-gas system via physical entrainment, but at a slightly higher concentration than what was observed for SB9 melter off-gas pluggage deposits (0.07 wt%) [Gap closed for SB11] ; 6) There are no expected impacts on DWPF recycle or the Recycle Collection Tank glycolate destruction process. [Gap closed for SB11]; 7) Gd is projected to be a trace component in the SB11 glass (<0.5 wt%) and can be ignored for process control. Trace components do not significantly impact glass durability, thus the conclusions of the previous Product Consistency Test evaluation at a fissile mass loading of 2,500 g fissile/m3 glass still applies to SB11. The ~0.1 wt% increase in Gd2O3 concentration relative to the previous study will not impact the predictability of SB11 glass with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) models for durability or the acceptability of glass according to the Waste Acceptance Product Specifications (WAPS) criterion for product consistency [Gap closed for SB11]; 8) No additional Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure testing is necessary for SB11 and the hazardous waste specification of the SB11 DWPF waste form is unchanged after the addition of the ABD stream [Gap closed for SB11]. The following summarizes the evaluation of the impacts of adding two-thirds of the ABD material to Tank 51 prior to LTAD: 1) The addition of two-thirds of the ABD increases overall aluminum mass from 1.39×10 4 kg to 1.64×10 4 kg (15.5% ABD Al). The form of the insoluble portion of the Al resulting from ABD addition should be the more readily dissolved Al(OH) 3 and amorphous forms. The portion of the ABD aluminum that is processed by LTAD is expected to be completely soluble, thus requiring that less of the boehmite in the sludge be dissolved to reach the same Al target in the SB. [Gap closed for SB11]; The expected LTAD impact on other components, as related primarily to the components in ABD, are discussed. Gd is expected to remain insoluble during LTAD and not impact the solubility of other components. [Gap closed for SB11]; The addition of two-thirds of the ABD increases overall projected SB11 uranium mass from 4,740 kg to 13,100 kg (63% ABD U) and the projected plutonium mass from 86.0 kg to 89.5 kg (3.9% ABD Pu). The addition of all of the ABD increases overall projected SB11 uranium mass from 4,740 kg to 16,100 kg (70% ABD U) and the projected plutonium mass from 86.0 kg to 90.4 kg (5.3% ABD Pu). The 235 U enrichment will be ≤5%. The fissile uranium will be adequately poisoned by Gd and the fissile Pu will be adequately poisoned by Fe from the sludge. [Gap closed for SB11]; There is a low risk that ABD addition will impact the rheology or pumpability of the slurry. There is a low but higher risk of ABD addition prior to LTAD impacting the settling rate; Based on the evaluation of adding two-thirds of the ABD material and all of the ABD material prior to the LTAD process, there is no volume or mass limit that would need to be imposed on ABD additions prior to LTAD. [Gap closed for SB11]. Revision 1 of this report addresses a variation on the ABD additions and LTAD strategy where sodium hydroxide additions for LTAD may be performed intermittently or concurrently with an ABD addition window. The proposed change does not alter the conclusions of this evaluation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pathways Toward High-energy Li-sulfur Batteries, Identified via Multi-reaction Chemical Modeling

Here we present a 1D model of a Li-Sulfur battery with physically derived geometric parameters and thermodynamically consistent electrochemical kinetics. The approach enables straightforward comparison of proposed Li-S mechanisms and provides insights into the influence of polysulfide intermediates on battery discharge. Comparing predictions from multiple mechanisms demonstrates the need for both lithiated and non-lithiated polysulfide species, and highlights the challenge of developing parameter estimates for complex electrochemical mechanisms. The model is also used to explore cathode design strategies. Discharge performance and polysulfide concentrations for electrolyte/sulfur ratios in the range 2–4 μ L mg −1 identifies trade-offs that limit battery energy and power density, and highlights the risk of polysulfide precipitation. New cathode and electrolyte approaches must limit polysulfide concentrations in the electrolyte, both to unlock better rate capabilities in Li-S technology and to prevent capacity fade due to polysulfide precipitation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (2022 Annual Report)

The Department of Energy maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns owned by the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR's ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. A cavern has an available drawdown if after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of a vailable drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. A consensus has now been built regarding the assessment of drawdown capabilities and risks for the SPR caverns (Sobolik et al., 2014; Sobolik 2016). The process involves an initial assessment of the pillar-to-diameter (P/D) ratio for each cavern with respect to neighboring caverns. A large pillar thickness between adjacent caverns should be strong enough to withstand the stresses induced by closure of the caverns due to salt creep. The first evaluation of P/D includes a calculation of the evolution of P/D after a number of full cavern drawdowns. The most common storage industry standard is to keep this value greater than 1.0, which should ensure a pillar thick enough to prevent loss of fluids to the surrounding rock mass. However, many of the SPR caverns currently have a P/D less than 1.0 or will likely have a low P/D after one or two full drawdowns. For these caverns, it is important to examine the s tructural integrity with more detail using geomechanical models. Finite - element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent "red flags" for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a P/D of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for occasional oil sales , purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern's drawdown capacity may be continued. A proposed methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern was presented in Sobolik et al. (2018). This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditure for several caverns.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗