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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Small Co-doping induced magnetic and electrical transitions in single crystal CaF⁢e 0.95 ⁢C⁢o 0.05 ⁢O 3

CaFe⁢O 3 and CaF⁢e 0.95 ⁢C⁢o 0.05 ⁢O 3 single crystals were grown by combing floating-zone method with high oxygen pressure treatment. Both crystals show charge disproportionation of Fe (F⁡e 4+ → F⁡e 3+ + F⁡e 5+ ) accompanied by a metal-to-insulator transition as well as a crystal structural transformation from Pbnm to 𝑃⁢2 1 /𝑛. However, the slight introduction of Co significantly suppresses the critical temperature of charge disproportionation from 290 K in CaFe⁢O 3 to 260 K in CaF⁢e 0.95 ⁢C⁢o 0.05 ⁢O 3 . Different from the single antiferromagnetic phase transition as observed in the polycrystalline CaFe⁢O 3 , two sequential antiferromagnetic transitions are found to occur in these two single crystals with the Néel temperatures around 119 and 112 K for CaFe⁢O 3 crystal and 109 and 98 K for CaF⁢e 0.95 ⁢C⁢o 0.05 ⁢O 3 crystal, respectively. Neutron diffraction illustrates the formation of a spiral antiferromagnetic structure. Moreover, as the temperature further decreases to 65 K, a third magnetic transition accompanied by a second electrical transition is observed in the slightly Co-doped CaF⁢e 0.95 ⁢C⁢o 0.05 ⁢O 3 crystal. In conclusion, first-principles calculations suggest that the introduction of a moderate amount of Co and the peculiar spiral spin texture play an important role in the presence of such new magnetic and electrical transitions.

Xia, Hailiang [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced Catalytic Dechlorination of Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) and H2 Production Enabled by Synergistic Gaδ+/Ga0 Active Sites in Liquid Metal Particles

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is ubiquitous yet challenging to recycle due to its tendency to thermally decompose above 250 °C, releasing toxic, corrosive chlorinated compounds, and its inability to melt. Here, we report a catalytic strategy for PVC upcycling at 160 °C using gallium liquid metal particles (Ga-LMP) featuring a dynamic Ga-GaOOH core–shell architecture. These catalysts enable concurrent dechlorination and hydrogen evolution, yielding up to 7% H2 (based on initial hydrogen atoms in PVC) along with a highly dechlorinated (>95%) carbonaceous solid and aqueous HCl. Mechanistic investigations combining X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, infrared spectroscopy, solid-state NMR, inelastic neutron scattering, and ab initio molecular dynamics reveal a synergistic interplay between Gaδ+ sites in the GaOOH shell and metallic Ga0 in the core. Cationic Ga initiates C–Cl bond activation and HCl formation, while progressive reduction of the shell exposes Ga0 sites that promote C–H activation and H2 evolution. Control experiments with a Ga salt and bulk Ga liquid metal confirmed that neither oxidation state alone can achieve both transformations efficiently. This work establishes a dynamic dual-site paradigm for liquid metal catalysis, in which the in situ evolution and coexistence of oxidized and metallic species enable sequential and cooperative bond activation pathways. These findings provide a general design principle for novel liquid metal catalysts that target challenging polymer transformations under mild conditions.

Zingg, Benjamin [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000914530153)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Direct observation of diamond formation in a shock-compressed high explosive

Understanding the formation timescale and structure of carbonaceous reaction products is critical for modeling the high-pressure equation-of-state of organic materials. We use the National Ignition Facility to shock-compress polycrystalline TATB (C 6 H 6 N 6 O 6 ) samples to ~70–130 GPa and ~4000–5500 K, employing in situ nanosecond X-ray diffraction to probe reaction products and velocimetry to measure transmitted compression wave profiles. Our diffraction data is consistent with the formation of diamond over timescales less than ~60 ns. This represents carbon condensation from a molecular explosive on timescales three times faster than previously reported and the earliest observation of diamond produced from reacting TATB. Reactive flow simulations with explicit chemistry reproduce the observed temporal structure within wave profiles to inform the distribution of P-T states. These findings provide direct evidence of ultrafast diamond formation in a reactive system at extreme conditions and provide new constraints for models of shock and detonation chemistry.

Clarke, Samantha M. [Lawrence Livermore National L↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assembly and Testing of Scintillator Tile Modules for the CMS High-Granularity Calorimeter Upgrade

The High-Granularity Calorimeter (HGCAL), part of the upgrade to the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment, employs silicon and scintillator tile modules in the endcaps to maintain detector performance during the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) era, scheduled to operate from 2030 to 2040. The upgraded calorimeter will provide highly segmented three-dimensional imaging, energy measurements, and precise timing for particle shower reconstruction. Approximately half of the HGCal plastic scintillator tile modules (1,834 total) will be assembled at Fermilab using an automated pick-and-place (PnP) machine. Following assembly, each tile module undergoes quality control (QC) procedures such as electrical validation, thermal testing, and physics validation using cosmic rays. This poster/talk presents the QC procedures and results from the tile module production in 2026, demonstrating the performance and quality of the assembled tile modules.

Bazimya, Jean Luc [Grambling State U.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

A multiscale packed-bed reactor model for sustainable ethylene production via chemical looping oxidative coupling of methane

The rising global warming concerns and shale gas discovery have prompted research in the direction of greenhouse gas (GHG), such as methane, reduction and conversion. Oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) offers a pathway to low carbon-intense valorization of methane while producing ethylene, a chemical regarded as central to the petrochemical industry. Even after decades of OCM discovery, researchers keep understanding the process and underlying chemical reactions in a pursuit to achieve industrial viability for OCM. Here, in general, OCM suffers from low C 2 selectivity, yield and reactor temperature runaways due to highly exothermic nature of its reactions. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools help analyze spatial gradients within the reactor to deeply understand the diffusion of species, mass and heat transfer phenomena. Furthermore, challenges associated with scaling up such as hot spot formation and parametric sensitivity can be addressed without having to expend on costly experiments. The current paper presents a multiscale packed-bed reactor CFD model coupled with a chemical kinetic model for the chemical looping OCM. The CFD model includes two scales i.e., macroscale for catalyst bed and microscale for individual pellets. Moreover, a chemical kinetic model based on 10 gas-phase reactions is integrated with the CFD model. An additional surface reaction for the formation of gas-phase oxygen from catalyst surface is added to account for the absence of feed oxygen. The model is calibrated against experimental results. The calibrated model captures trends in CH 4 conversion, C 2 selectivity and C 2 yield within a ± 4.35 % range across a temperature range of 700-900 °C. Moreover, model fidelity is evaluated by varying key computational parameters such as mesh resolution and time step size. The model is also verified by varying the inlet methane concentration and the gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) and comparing the results with literature. A sensitivity analysis and scale-up of the current model is undergoing.

Chemical looping↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Epoxy Structures via Tunable Polymerization-Induced Phase Separation Combined with Additive Manufacturing

Polymerization-induced phase separation (PIPS) allows for the control of thermoset morphologies and properties, enabling the tuning of domain sizes and thermomechanical response. However, its use in generating substructural features in additively manufactured materials has been limited. In this work, we combine epoxy PIPS with UV curable acrylate and rheological modifiers to print nano- to macro-phase separating materials via a two-step, dual-cure approach. This method enables direct ink write printing of hierarchical structures with both controlled morphologies through phase separation and macroscale architecture through print design. We find that formulations for phase-separating materials require judicious incorporation of additives to enable printability and to provide sufficient green strength. Atomic force microscopy-nano infrared mapping reveals tunable, reticulated nano- to micron-scale domains of the resultant multiphase materials and their morphology changes due to additives, resulting in alterations to thermomechanical and tensile properties. Shape memory behavior is also demonstrated through multimaterial additive manufacturing of epoxies with functionally graded internal morphology using active mixing techniques, highlighting this method’s ability to fabricate complex architectures with controlled morphologies and thermomechanical response.

Van Meter, Kylie E [Organic Materials Science, San↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of a high fidelity CFD model for solvent evaporation and transport in porous structure during battery electrode drying

An efficient battery manufacturing process is the key to the mass production of Electric Vehicles (EV), in which drying is one of the most energy-intensive steps significantly influencing the battery cell performance. An accurate 3D CFD model for drying is essential for predicting the drying mechanism and optimizing its parameters. By optimizing the drying process, it is possible to reduce energy consumption and cost during battery manufacturing, minimize binder loading and maximize active material loading to achieve superior electrochemical performances and facilitate wider and faster public adoption of EV. This project aims to optimize the drying process during electrode manufacturing by leveraging high-fidelity, porous electrode simulations for solvent evaporation. By optimizing this process, we seek to reduce energy consumption during battery manufacturing, while minimizing binder loading and maximizing active material loading, with the overall goal of enhancing electrical vehicle performance.

Horner, Jeffrey Scott [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lessons learned from the development and implementation of a workforce training curriculum for advanced controls for high performance HVAC systems

Over the past decade, academic research on advanced controls has slowly transitioned into new software platforms, giving rise to various companies developing and deploying these innovative products, including solutions for light commercial HVAC systems. However, the current workforce remains widely unprepared to install, maintain and operate these systems, particularly complex software-based control platforms, as most workforce training programs still focus on traditional building automation for large commercial buildings. This paper presents the development and piloting of curriculum for three key types of professionals: ● Technicians (trade-level): installing and maintaining modern high-performance HVAC systems and controls ● Programmers (undergrad-level): developing and implementing advanced controls ● Engineers and energy professionals (undergrad/grad-level): managing and evaluating system performance We share details of the material developed including training videos, open-source software, instruction manuals. We also present the results of a pilot implementation of the training materials with real students.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2026

Biochar–polymer composites for 3D printing: a review

Biochar, a bio-based co-product of biofuel production via thermochemical conversion, holds potential as a filler for polymer composites to reduce costs, improve thermomechanical properties, and aid in environmental remediation. 3D-printed biochar composites have received growing interest over the past few years but have experienced difficulties such as poor layer adhesion and nozzle clogging. Currently, no literature review examines 3D-printed biochar composites and related biochar properties in-depth. This work summarizes and discusses recent studies on 3D-printed polymer and biochar composites and examines their mechanical, thermal, and additional properties that result from each study. Technical challenges in printability, such as nozzle clogging from particle size and biochar aggregation, are also discussed. Furthermore, this work discusses the variability of biochar properties resulting from the pyrolysis conditions and feedstock choice in relation to potential 3D printing outcomes. In particular, several studies reported that high lignin feedstocks could be candidates for 3D printing. The post-processing approaches of the biochar via physical and chemical methods are also introduced. Ball milling appears to hold the most promise for physical treatments due to its tunability of particle size, surface area, and functional groups, while chemical treatments with acids or alkalis are used to tailor biochar porosity and wettability. Overall, it was determined that future research needs to be done relating biochar production and post-processing methods to resulting 3D printing parameters as the number of studies is limited.

Day, Rachel [Auburn University, Auburn, AL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls for solar-driven H 2 generation and storage

Hydrogen gas is a promising alternative to fossil fuels due to its high energy output and environmentally safe byproducts. Various morphologies of photocatalytic materials have been explored for high-efficiency H 2 production, for instance, quasi-1D nanoscroll structures that provide a larger surface-to-volume ratio. Recently, we predicted layer-by-layer formation of stable oxide nanoscrolls directly from dichalcogenide precursors, eliminating the need for costly formation of two-dimensional oxides for a roll-up synthesis of nanoscrolls. Here, in this study, we evaluate the suitability of those oxide nanoscroll materials—MoO 3 , WO 3 , PdO 2 , HfO 2 , and GeO 2 —for solar-driven photocatalytic H 2 production and storage. Using excited state theory coupled with Bethe–Salpeter equation simulations, we discern their electronic and optical properties as a function of interlayer scroll spacing and find them to be highly conducive for solar-driven photocatalysis. Additionally, using ab initio molecular dynamics simulations, we show that they are also suitable for H 2 storage as the nanoscrolls exhibit an effective trapping of hydrogen, even in the presence of defects and vacancies in the oxides. This work thus demonstrates the discovery of robust and tunable oxide nanoscrolls as materials for advancing solar-driven hydrogen technologies.

Chemical compounds↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spin‐Polarized Interfaces Redirect CO 2 Reduction From CO to Formate

Achieving high product selectivity in electrocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction (CO 2 RR) remains a critical challenge due to competition between multiple proton-coupled electron-transfer pathways on catalyst surfaces. Meanwhile, chirality-induced spin selectivity (CISS), which enables spin-polarized electron transport through chiral interfaces, has recently emerged as a promising strategy to modulate interfacial electrochemical reactions. Although the CISS effect has been shown to enhance selectivity and efficiency in the spin-sensitive oxygen evolution reaction (OER), its role in regulating CO 2 RR pathways and in stabilizing intermediates remains largely unexplored. Here, chiral molecules (R- and S-1,1′-bi-2-naphthyl-2,2′-diyl hydrogen phosphate, BNP) were integrated with SnO 2 to construct chiral-modified catalysts (R-BNP/SnO 2 and S-BNP/SnO 2 ). Compared with bare SnO 2 and racemic BNP-modified SnO 2 (Rac-BNP/SnO 2 ), the chiral catalysts exhibited a pronounced shift in product selectivity from CO toward formate production. Importantly, in-situ attenuated total reflectance surface-enhanced infrared absorption spectroscopy (ATR-SEIRAS) reveals that the chiral interface selectively stabilizes the O-bound *OCHO intermediate associated with the formate pathway and modulates interfacial water structure and hydrogen-bonding dynamics. These findings demonstrate that spin-polarized interfacial electron transfer can regulate CO 2 RR pathway selectivity by modulating the stabilization of key intermediates. More broadly, this work establishes chiral spin-selective interfaces as a new strategy for regulating competitive electrocatalytic reaction pathways.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multitask graph neural networks for elastoplastic response prediction in dual-phase polycrystals

Microstructure-sensitive prediction of elastoplastic response remains a recurring bottleneck in multiscale damage and fatigue modeling, where large ensembles of statistically distinct polycrystals are required to quantify variability and extreme-value behavior. In this work, we develop a multitask graph neural network (GNN) surrogate that maps dual-phase ferrite–martensite polycrystal microstructures to Statistical Volume Element (SVE)-level elastoplastic Quantities of Interest (QoIs). Each SVE is represented as a grain-adjacency graph, with node features encoding phase, geometry, and crystallographic orientation, and edge features encoding relative misorientation. A message-passing graph convolution generates node embeddings, which are pooled into a graph representation and passed to a multitask regression head that jointly predicts 10 scalar QoIs and vector-valued stress–strain responses in orthogonal loading directions across multiple martensite volume fractions and SVE sizes. Results show high accuracy for scalar QoIs and strong agreement for full stress–strain trajectories, with population envelopes reproducing both median behavior and finite-SVE variability across compositions and partition scales. A unified model trained on pooled volume-fraction data preserves most within-regime accuracy relative to regime-specific models while also capturing the broader cross-regime variation reflected in the pooled test set. Distributional comparisons further demonstrate that the surrogate preserves heterogeneity under SVE partitioning, enabling statistically consistent block-wise random-field construction for mesoscale analyses. Overall, the proposed grain-graph surrogate provides a practical pathway to accelerate ensemble-based studies of SVE-level constitutive variability in dual-phase polycrystals.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of functional additives, fillers, and pigments on thermal and catalytic pyrolysis of polyethylene for waste plastic upcycling

Pyrolysis offers a relatively green and economical method to convert waste plastics into valuable chemicals and fuels without the need for harmful solvents, toxic chemicals, or costly high-pressure reactors. Despite its popularity among chemical upcycling technologies, industrial adoption suffers from feedstock heterogeneity, low-quality products, and catalyst deactivation. Most plastics in our daily lives are formulated with functional additives, fillers, and colorants. These additives remaining in end-of-life waste streams increase feedstock heterogeneity, creating a challenging issue in recycling plastics. Still, the potential impacts of additives on the chemical upcycling of plastics have been poorly understood. In this study, polyethylene compounded with a range of widely used additives (antioxidants, stabilizers, pigments, fillers, slip agents, and flame retardants) was subjected to both thermal pyrolysis and catalytic pyrolysis in different catalyst-to-feedstock contact modes. It showed that many inorganic additives, such as talc, kaolin, CaCO 3 , TiO 2 , carbon black, and zinc stearate, facilitated polymer decomposition during pyrolysis, increasing light hydrocarbons while also promoting aromatic and carbon residue formation. Conversely, antioxidants and stabilizers inhibited depolymerization, favoring heavier hydrocarbons. During catalytic pyrolysis with HZSM-5 zeolite, additives strongly enhanced aromatic and catalytic coke formation, especially when there was direct contact between plastics and catalysts. Although certain additives seem beneficial in the short term by promoting polymer cracking and improving the selectivity of aromatics, the transport of the additives and their degradation products and increased carbon coking can contaminate products, deactivate or modify catalysts, and foul reactors. These findings address a critical knowledge gap in effectively converting waste plastics via a greener route.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis and Characterization of Soy Hull Biochar-Based Flexible Polyurethane Foam Composites

Flexible polyurethane foams are a diverse class of materials encompassing furniture, packaging, automotive, and many other industrial and domestic applications. Polyurethane foams are synthesized by the addition of polyols and isocyanates; however, the petroleum origin and toxic nature of isocyanates have driven many to look for more sustainable routes to production. Renewable fillers have emerged as a biobased resource to decrease the carbon footprint of this widely used polymeric material. In this study, soy hulls, as mass-produced, industrial by-products of soybean production, were used to create a biochar beneficial in the synthesis of flexible polyurethane foam composites. The addition of soy hull biochar was found to maintain the compression properties of foams at a decreasing isocyanate index, reducing the amount of isocyanates needed for production. In addition, the addition of biochar decreased the flammability of foams, important for many applications where consumer safety is important. The results point to the ability to create safer, more sustainable, and even more cost-effective polyurethane foams through the reduction in isocyanate use while maintaining the properties of this important class of polymers.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-sensor Observations of a High-velocity Fireball over the South Atlantic on 2026 April 1

A high-velocity fireball was detected over the South Atlantic (41.9°S, 54.7°W) on 2026 April 1 at 02:13:14 UTC by U.S. Government (USG) sensors, with peak brightness at 90.5 km altitude. The event was well-observed from geostationary orbit by two civilian lightning imagers with near-orthogonal geometry, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-East Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Meteosat Third Generation Imager 1 Lightning Imager, and it produced low-frequency acoustic signatures. The GLM measured a total radiated energy of 2.4 × 10 10 J, corresponding to a calculated impact energy of 0.086 kt TNT equivalent. Stereoscopic triangulation of the imager tracks yields an independent pre-atmospheric velocity of ~57 km s −1 , some 18% below the USG-reported value. Because orbital provenance is acutely sensitive to the entry velocity, whose reported uncertainty could be substantial, this discrepancy is notable. We document the multi-sensor record and identify the analysis required to assess provenance, which a subsequent study will present.

Silber, Elizabeth Allaryce [Sandia National Lab. (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the horizon of bio-naphtha beyond gasoline blend: property characterization and conversion opportunity assessment through technoeconomic and life-cycle analyses

Bio-naphtha, a common by-product of biorefineries, is expected to experience substantial growth in supply due to increasing demands for renewable diesel and synthetic aviation fuel (SAF). However, demand for bio-naphtha itself as a gasoline blendstock is limited because of the electrification of light-duty vehicles. This work investigated valorization opportunities for bio-naphtha from catalytic fast pyrolysis, hydrothermal liquefaction, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and hydrotreated esters and fatty acids pathways. These opportunities include producing polymer-grade olefin via steam cracking, SAF via steam cracking followed by olefin oligomerization, and renewable aromatics benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) and hydrogen via catalytic reforming. Process models were developed in Aspen Plus V14 and Aspen HYSYS V14 to calculate the mass and energy balances for each conversion step. Technoeconomic assessment and life-cycle analysis were conducted to evaluate the minimum fuel/product selling price, conversion cost, and life-cycle CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emission reduction. Technoeconomic assessment results suggest a minimum fuel/product selling price as low as $1.9/kg of olefins, $6.30/gal of gasoline-equivalent SAF, and $1.2/kg of BTX without any incentives. For all pathways, these prices are dominated by bio-naphtha feedstock costs, which account for at least 76% of the total cost. Compared with petroleum baselines, bio-naphtha-derived SAF, olefins, and BTX can achieve significant CO2e emission reductions from the use of renewable carbon resources. The results of life-cycle analysis and subsequent technoeconomic assessment, incorporating carbon credits, indicate the economic viability of using bio-naphtha for polymer-grade olefin and BTX production, with product costs comparable to market prices.

Xu, Shuang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Hydrogen Burner for FT4000® Aeroderivative Engine - Final Report

This report details an effort to develop a retrofittable fuel/air injector for the FT4000® aeroderivative gas turbine that enables use of hydrogen as a carbon-free fuel for efficient power generation. The FT4000 engine’s low-NOx combustor was developed by Pratt & Whitney and RTX Technology Research Center with core technology from the Pratt & Whitney PW4000 turbofan aircraft engine. The current FT4000 production engine operates on either natural gas or No. 2 fuel oil with water injection to achieve high thermal efficiency and low emissions. This engine is fielded by Mitsubishi Power Aero and delivers 70 MW of power with a simple-cycle efficiency of over 41% when operating with wet compression. The work reported here advances the technology readiness level of the FT4000 combustor for operation with hydrogen, starting with an experimental assessment of the current production hardware with increasing hydrogen content mixed with natural gas and ending with improved nozzle concepts for fully robust operation with 100% hydrogen. High-pressure single-sector combustor rig tests have been completed, demonstrating the ability for the dual fuel nozzle to operate an FT4000 combustor on 100% hydrogen with low nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Metal temperature measurements and video images of the flame structure from zero to 100% hydrogen highlight opportunities to improve the fuel nozzle robustness for high hydrogen conditions. The design of new fuel/air mixer concepts to improve durability and operability with high hydrogen levels was also completed. A total of eleven new concepts were developed and analyzed, ranging from modifications to the bill-of-materials nozzle to fully clean sheet designs. The concepts were evaluated with non-reacting and reacting flow evaluations to assess the performance of the new hardware designs. Non-reacting tests included Phase Doppler Particle Analysis (PDPA) for droplet size and velocity, mechanical patternation for liquid water flux, and planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) with acetone-seeding for gaseous fuel/air mixing characterization. Five scaled candidate fuel nozzle designs, in addition to a scaled bill-of-materials nozzle, were then successfully evaluated in an atmospheric pressure burner rig. The nozzles were evaluated for performance with natural gas, hydrogen/natural gas blends, and pure hydrogen. For 100% hydrogen, the nozzles were evaluated with and without water injection. Optical and infrared imaging of the flame and fuel nozzle was captured. NOx emissions were sampled from fixed emissions probes. The results show measurable differences between the various designs, and the data was used to down-select the two most promising designs to advance to future full pressure rig testing. Results from this study have cleared the current production FT4000 engines with dual fuel nozzles to operate at baseload power on blends of hydrogen mixed with natural gas and water. Two promising nozzle designs have been developed to enable fully robust operation with up to 100% hydrogen. These nozzles require validation at full baseload operating conditions before they can be introduced to the field.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗