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DOE OSTI2026

Nanohybrid of Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx as a Silver-Free MXene Sorbent for Iodine Gas Capture from Nuclear Waste

The capture of volatile radioiodine from nuclear fuel reprocessing off-gas streams remains a critical challenge due to the high volatility, long half-life of 129I, and biological uptake of iodide from the environment. Although silver-based sorbents provide strong iodine chemisorption, their high cost and regulatory classification as mixed radioactive-hazardous waste motivate the development of alternative materials. Here, we report a silver-free Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx MXene hybrid for iodine gas capture at 150 °C. Structural and compositional analyses confirm the formation of Cu2O nanoparticles on Ti3C2Tx nanosheets and their subsequent conversion to thermodynamically stable CuI upon static iodine gas exposure, achieving an iodine mass loading of up to 1115 mg/g. These results demonstrate the potential of Cu2O-Ti3C2Tx MXene as a copper-based alternative to silver sorbents for elevated-temperature iodine gas capture.

iodine gas capture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design, Development, and Test of the Advanced Apollo Orbital Assembly System

As spaceflight moves toward commercial solutions for Crew Vehicles and Space Stations, opportunity exists to lower costs with novel designs. Probe and cone docking systems provide a lightweight, low cost, and high-performance docking solution. This work revisits the Apollo probe and cone design and modifies it for the requirements of today’s computer-controlled spacecraft. This new system is called the Advanced Apollo Orbital Assembly (APOA) system, and is intended to support satellite, cargo, and space station assembly missions. A simulation of the APOA was programmed, components were sized, and a design was created by scaling the probe to the size of an EELV Secondary Payload Adapter (ESPA) tunnel. Prototype test hardware was 3D printed using Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) methods with Polylactic Acid (PLA) material. Testing of the APOA-ESPA was conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center’s (MSFC) Flat Floor, and a test-correlated simulation is used to evaluate a Monte-Carlo of Initial Contact Conditions (ICC’s) to establish baseline performance. The successful development, test, and correlation of the APOA-ESPA proves the design validity and increases Technology Readiness Level (TRL) from 2 to 4. This work opens the door to construction of an APOA-ESPA from flight like materials, and to develop a larger scale prototype APOA. When the full scale APOA is incorporated with the Common Berthing Mechanism (CBM), becomes the Hybrid Berthing System (HBS), which allows for berthing without a robotic arm.

Berthing↗

NASA NTRS1996

The 1995 NASA Aerospace Battery Workshop

This document contains the proceedings of the 28th annual NASA Aerospace Battery Workshop, hosted by the Marshall Space Flight Center on 28-30 Nov. 1995. The workshop was attended by scientists and engineers from various agencies of the U.S. Government, aerospace contractors, and battery manufacturers, as well as international participation in like kind from a number of countries around the world. The subjects covered included nickel-cadmium, nickel-hydrogen, nickel-metal hybride, and lithium based technologies, as well as flight and ground test data. Nickel-hydrogen modeling was also covered.

Brewer, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗

NASA NTRS1968

Advances in Tactical Rocket Propulsion

An AGARD Colloquium on 'Progress in Tactical Rocket Propulsion' was held at La Jolla, California, on April 22 and 23, 1965. The unclassified papers, or unclassified versions of classified papers, presented at this meeting form the contents of the present AGARD conference proceedings, which has been identified by a new title that reflects more properly the scope of the remaining technical papers. The articles contained in this volume represent significant evaluations of the status of solid-propellant, liquid-propellant and hybrid-propellant rocket development. Together with the reviews, they should provide a useful reference source for research workers and students alike.

S S Penner↗

NASA NTRS2026

A Review of Superconducting Electric Machines with On-Board Cryocoolers

This paper reviews the evolution and emerging direction of superconducting electric machines that employ onboard cryocoolers integrated directly into the rotor, eliminating the need for cryogenic fluid coupling and, in some cases, rotary seals. Traditional low-temperature superconducting (LTS) machines relied on external cryogenic systems and liquid helium transfer couplers, which introduced excessive complexity, poor reliability, and significant parasitic energy losses. The advent of high-temperature superconductors (HTS) has enabled compact, closed-cycle cryocoolers that support self-contained, fluid-free refrigeration architectures suitable for rotating applications. This paper examines the key technological challenges associated with on-board cryocooler integration and reviews three representative efforts by KAIST, NASA, and Hinetics, each illustrating distinct strategies and milestones toward practical implementation. KAIST demonstrated early proof-of-concept for rotating machines with on-board cryocoolers, NASA developed a shaft-integrated Stirling-type pulse tube cryocooler for a 1.4 MW hybrid-electric motor, and Hinetics achieved full-scale validation of a self-contained HTS rotor incorporating a commercial Stirling cryocooler and spoke-suspension torque tube. Collectively, these achievements confirm the technical feasibility of on-board cryogenic refrigeration and highlight steady progress toward compact and efficient superconducting rotating systems across various applications. Embedding cryocoolers directly within the rotor enables practical, efficient, and commercially viable superconducting propulsion technologies.

Cryogenics↗

NASA NTRS2025

The Shape Effect: Influence of 1D and 2D Boron Nitride Nanostructures on the Radiation Shielding, Thermal, and Damping Properties of High-Temperature Epoxy Composites

In space exploration, lightweight multifunctional materials capable of shielding neutron radiation, dissipating heat, and providing damping are essential. Polymer composites reinforced with boron nitride (BN) nanomaterials—specifically one-dimensional boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) and two-dimensional boron nitride nanoplatelets (BNNPs)—offer promising solutions. This study investigates how BN nanomaterial morphology influences the performance of high-temperature (HT) epoxy composites. We developed ultralightweight, three-dimensional BN foams comprising 1D BNNTs, 2D BNNPs, and hybrid 1D BNNT/2D BNNP structures via freeze-drying, then infiltrated them with HT epoxy to form dense composites. The BNNT foam exhibited the highest neutron radiation shielding, with a mass absorption coefficient of 26.64 cm2 g −1 , outperforming the hybrid foam (18.18 cm 2 g −1 ) and the BNNP foam (11.12 cm 2 g −1 ). A similar trend was observed in the HT epoxy composites; incorporating these foams at least doubled the mass absorption coefficient compared to the neat polymer. In terms of thermal conductivity, the BNNT/BNNP foam-epoxy composite achieved the highest value of 0.34 W m −1 K −1 , a 2.13-fold increase over neat HT epoxy. The BNNT/BNNP foam-epoxy composites also improved by 1.88 and 1.75 times, respectively. Mechanical testing revealed that BNNP foams withstood the highest loads during nanoindentation (3.53 kN), followed by BNNT/BNNP foams (1.93 kN) and BNNT foams (1.56 kN). All BN foam-epoxy composites exhibited enhanced damping properties, with tan δ increasing by at least 30 % compared to neat HT epoxy. These findings elucidate the impact of BN nanomaterial morphology on the multifunctional performance of HT epoxy composites, offering insights for developing high-performance, tailorable materials for demanding environments.

Kazue Orikasa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery↗

NASA NTRS2019

Physics-Based Modeling and Simulation of Emerging Battery Technologies for Aerospace

Recently there is a growing interest in the aviation sector to reduce air and noise pollution. Electrochemical energy storage devices such as batteries coupled with a distributed electric propulsion system can reduce noise concerns as well as emissions and allow the concept of Urban Air Mobility to come to fruition. The battery performance needs to improve considerably compared from current state-of-art Li-ion battery (about 200Wh/Kg) to realize all-electric passenger jet for short flights (up to 690 miles). NASA is exploring lithium-oxygen battery chemistry to power hybrid (battery powered electrical system) and all-electric aircraft for short distance and long-distance flights. Li-O2 is one of the advanced Li-ion technologies that promise to provide specific energy of more than 750Wh/Kg. For this presentation, we present our work on improving power density of Li-O2 batteries through the use of multiphysics simulations. Next, a path is outlined to port these model to simulate performance for a new battery chemistry for space application, Li-CO2. Li-CO2 uses carbon dioxide as the active material instead of oxygen. Although this technology is in its early development, the offers two benefits: it can be used as a CO2 scrubber, as oxygen is one of the by-products on charging, and as a backup or a standalone battery for various Mars or Venus missions, where the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere is high and need battery to operate at higher temperatures.

Mehta, Mohit↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic Scattering Approach to In-Gap States

We develop a microscopic scattering formalism to describe Yu-Shiba-Rusinov (YSR) states due to a single Cr adatom on the Bi-terminated surface of beta Bi2Pd, by combining ab initio Wannier functions with a real-space Green's function approach in the Bogoliubov-de Gennes formalism[1]. Our framework reproduces key scanning tunneling spectroscopy features, including a single particle-hole asymmetric YSR peak and isotropic dIdV maps around the impurity. Decomposing the YSR states reveals contributions from four nearly degenerate C4v representations, with energy broadening masking their individual signatures. Spin-orbit coupling induces partial spin polarization, while the spatial asymmetry between particle and hole components arises from Cr d-Bi p hybridization. These results highlight the importance of realistic band structures and microscopic modeling for interpreting STM data for magnetic in-gap states on superconductors. Further advances examining layered 2D material surfaces, such as NbSe2, will be described[2]. For this system the superconducting properties are obtained from a full anisotropic Eliashberg calculation of the superconducting order parameter along with the charge density wave gap. Additional features associated with proposals to measure the dynamics of these individual YSR states will be presented. [1] arXiv:2507.08740 [2] arXiv:2507.11856

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2026

Kondo effect in ferromagnetic quantum critical CeRh 6 ⁢Ge 4

The mechanism of a pressure-induced quantum critical point in the heavy fermion ferromagnet CeRh 6 ⁢Ge 4 has attracted interest, as ferromagnetic quantum criticality in a clean itinerant Ce compound is typically avoided. The localized versus itinerant character of the 4⁢𝑓 electrons is a key aspect for understanding this behavior. We investigated the electronic structure of the 4⁢𝑓 shell in CeRh 6 ⁢Ge 4 using core-level photoelectron and x-ray absorption spectroscopy, demonstrating the hybridization of Ce 4⁢𝑓 with the conduction electrons. Linearly polarized x-ray absorption reveals a temperature-dependent linear dichroism consistent with the crystal-electric-field sequence as inferred from the static susceptibility. This dichroism cannot be described by an ionic full-multiplet model alone, but is reproduced by including the Kondo effect within a single-impurity Anderson model in the noncrossing approximation. The Kondo effect mixes higher-lying crystal-field states into a resulting multiorbital ground state with 4⁢𝑓 occupancy, 𝑛 𝑓 ∼ 0.9. Deviations at low temperatures between the measured linear dichroism and calculated dichroism suggest an orbital-dependent Kondo effect. A scenario in which there is a multiorbital ground state and orbital-dependent Kondo hybridization should be a starting point for a model of pressure-induced criticality in CeRh 6 ⁢Ge 4 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2026

Polymer Composite Material Testing for a Cryotank Application

Composite cryotanks will play a key role in enabling the next generation of efficient aircraft. Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites have the benefits of reduced weight and potentially higher structural strength compared to traditional metallic fuel tanks. A material screening study was conducted to inform material selection for liquid hydrogen (LH2) fuel storage. Three composite materials were considered because of their aerospace grade toughness, strength, and existing data to compare against. These materials were a thermoplastic low-melt polyaryletherketone (LM-PAEK)/carbon fiber (CF), thermoset/CF, and hybrid thermoset/thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) veil/CF composite. Mechanical screening tests included tension, compression, in-plane shear (IPS), and tensile-tensile fatigue (TTF). Each material was tested at both a baseline (no liquid nitrogen/LN2 cycling) and 100 LN2-cycled conditions to determine the knockdown factor, if any, of each material when exposed to environmental loading effects in a cryotank. Results show minimal effects of the LN2-cycling compared against baseline values. The three materials behaved similarly in tension; however, the thermoplastic/CF had the highest IPS toughness. The hybrid thermoset/TPU/CF composite had the lowest IPS strength, compressive strength, and toughness. LN2-cycling had minimal effects on tensile-tensile fatigue performance of the thermoplastic/CF material. Mechanical data was captured to guide material down selection for future commercially viable hydrogen aircraft design. In its current state, there does not exist a consolidated, publicly available database for CFRP composite material performance data at cryogenic temperatures. The next step in this work is to test the thermoplastic and thermoset CFRP composites, as well as the neat resins, at LH2 relevant temperature (20 K) to capture this crucial material property data. These results are essential to inform cryotank design and modeling efforts. The process to start this next round of testing has begun. Planned mechanical tests include toughness (single-edge notched beam), tension (unidirectional and quasi-isotropic), thermal expansion, and thermal conductivity. Some tests will also be conducted at an intermediate temperature of 111 K relevant to liquid natural gas (LNG), another attractive fuel choice. The ultimate goal is to manufacture a sub-scale cryotank part that can pass relevant burst, fatigue, permeation, and thermal cycling tests. This work is a part of NASA’s Commercially viable Hydrogen Aircraft for Robust Growth in Efficiency (CHARGE) Project under the larger NASA Subsonic Vehicle Technologies and Tools (SVTT) Project.

composites↗

NASA NTRS2026

Manufacturing Process Development of a Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composite Shaft for Electric Motors

Electric aircraft applications require electric motors with increased specific power and efficiency. Composite structural components in motors are a potential solution for reducing motor mass, reducing magnetic losses, and limiting undesired conduction paths for fault, electromagnetic interference, or common-mode currents. In this report, manufacturing trials for a high-speed carbon fiber reinforced polymer composite motor shaft are presented. Four prototype shafts were produced using a hybrid biaxial/triaxial fabric that was circumferentially wrapped onto an additively manufactured high-temperature washout mandrel. An additional traditional overbraid approach was also evaluated and shows promise for high-rate, high-performance parts using automated manufacturing. This paper discusses the shaft design, manufacturing methods explored, material selection, the manufacturing trials, and the lessons learned. The results of this manufacturing investigation show feasibility for manufacturing composite shafts for electric motors.

Electric moto shaft↗

NASA NTRS1970

Space Transportation System Technology Symposium. Volume 2 - Dynamics and Aeroelasticity

The Space Shuttle, being an hybrid – an airplane and a launch vehicle – represents the greatest challenge that the dynamicist and the aeroelastician have faced. Some specific problem areas related to the Space Shuttle are listed on figure 1. Dynamics and aeroelasticity envelop many disciplines, including aerodynamics, vibration, random processes, structures, fluid flow, mechanics, etc., but, of more importance, they involve the interaction and coupling of many of these various disciplines. Fundamentally, we are concerned with structural integrity and safe flight, i.e., trying to ensure that the vehicle will remain structurally intact as well as function properly in the presence of the many faceted dynamic environment. A new area which may have an impact on our task is the effect of the high temperature environment. In the past, we have been able to successfully decouple the temperature effects from our problem formulation. For the Space Shuttle, this problem must be closely reexamined. As has been pointed out in the opening remarks of the Conference, the Dynamics and Aeroelasticity Technology Group comprises one of several technology groups which are attempting to provide the necessary research to support a successful and safe vehicle. The group has members from most of the NASA Centers as well as from the Air Force groups. We meet periodically to review ongoing work, search for new problem areas; and we are constantly updating and revising our program. The group is organized into three panels as shown on figure 2: a panel on Dynamic Loads and Response, one on Aeroelasticity, and one on Flight Dynamics and Environment. The Conference papers accordingly have been grouped in these same three areas, with each Panel Chairman acting as moderator for his particular session.

Harry L Runyan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mild-Annealed Molecular Layer Deposition (MLD) Tincone Thin Film as Photoelectrochemically Stable and Efficient Electron Transport Layer for Si Photocathodes

Metalcone thin films, composed of inorganic–organic hybrids, are synthesized using molecular layer deposition (MLD) through reactions between organometallic precursors (e.g., Sn, Al, and Ti) and organic reactants (e.g., ethylene glycol and glycerol). Despite their unique properties, metalcones exhibit significant vulnerability to water due to their organic components, limiting their potential in electrochemical applications. This study focuses on enhancing the photoelectrochemical stability of tincone thin films in aqueous electrolyte while preserving their hybrid characteristics through mild annealing in air at 250 °C. As-deposited and vacuum-annealed tincone thin films exhibited significant degradation under these conditions, while high-temperature-annealed (500 °C) tincone thin films offered improved stability with a significant decline in charge transfer efficiency. In contrast, mild annealing in air maintained the C–O bond at half level and improved the stability and charge transport without compromising the unique characteristics of tincone. This was confirmed by ellipsometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Mild-annealed tincone deposited on a lightly doped p-type silicon (p-Si) photocathode produced a 20-fold increase in CO volume compared to high-temperature annealed tincone in a CO 2 -saturated potassium bicarbonate (KHCO 3 ) electrolyte with dispersed graphene oxide–cobalt phthalocyanine (GO-CoPc) under 1 sun illumination at 0.9 V vs reversible hydrogen electrode (RHE), while maintaining the faradaic efficiency for CO and H 2 . These results suggest that mild-annealed tincone thin films hold significant potential as protective charge transport layers on silicon photocathodes for the aqueous CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR).

Annealing (metallurgy)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗