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DOE OSTI2025

Energy Conversion and Electron Acceleration and Transport in 3D Simulations of Solar Flares

Recent observations and simulations indicate that solar flares undergo extremely complex 3D evolution, making 3D particle transport models essential for understanding electron acceleration and interpreting flare emissions. In this study, we investigate this problem by solving Parker’s transport equation with 3D MHD simulations of solar flares. By examining energy conversion in the 3D system, we evaluate the roles of different acceleration mechanisms, including reconnection current sheet (CS), termination shock (TS), and supra-arcade downflows (SADs). We find that large-amplitude turbulent fluctuations are generated and sustained in the 3D system. The model results demonstrate that a significant number of electrons are accelerated to hundreds of keV and even a few MeV, forming power-law energy spectra. These energetic particles are widely distributed, with concentrations at the TS and in the flare looptop region, consistent with results derived from recent hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave (MW) observations. By selectively turning particle acceleration on or off in specific regions, we find that the CS and SADs effectively accelerate electrons to several hundred keV, while the TS enables further acceleration to MeV. However, no single mechanism can independently account for the significant number of energetic electrons observed. Instead, the mechanisms work synergistically to produce a large population of accelerated electrons. Our model provides spatially and temporally resolved electron distributions in the whole flare region and at the flare footpoints, enabling synthetic HXR and MW emission modeling for comparison with observations. These results offer important insights into electron acceleration and transport in 3D solar flare regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration across basins in the Pacific Northwest USA"

This data package is associated with the publication “Allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration across basins in the Pacific Northwest USA” submitted to JGR-Biogeosciences (Regier et al. 2025).This study used reach-scale modeled estimates of hyporheic aerobic respiration made by the River Corridor Model (Fang et al. 2020) and watershed characteristics across the Willamette and Yakima River basins to explore potential allometric scaling (i.e., power-law relationships between size and function) of cumulative hyporheic respiration across catchment-to-basin scales. Scaling was explored quantitatively via the R2, slope, and y-intercept of relationships between cumulative hyporheic respiration and watershed area, divided into hyporheic exchange flux (HEF) quantiles. We also explored relationships between allometric scaling and other watershed characteristics through linear regression, spatial patterns, and mutual information analyses. Our results also suggest variability of hyporheic respiration allometry for middle exchange flux quantiles, and in relation to land-cover. Our findings provide initial evidence that allometric scaling may be useful for predicting hyporheic biogeochemical dynamics across watersheds from reach to basin scales. This data package is associated with the GitHub repository found at https://github.com/peterregier/rc_wrb_yrb_scaling. The data package is organized into several key directories. The “data” folder contains multiple CSV files, including landscape heterogeneity, scaling analysis, and watershed boundary data. The “figures” folder has all figure files in both PDF and PNG formats. Core analysis scripts and figure generation scripts are in the “scripts” directory, systematically numbered for sequential execution. The root directory includes essential project files; please see the file ending in “flmd.csv” for a list and description of all files contained in this data package and the file ending in “dd.csv” for data dictionaries used to describe tabular column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

RCSB protein data Bank: Next‐generation advanced search for exploration of experimental structures and computed structure models

Abstract The Protein Data Bank (PDB), established in 1971, is the primary global, open‐access archive for experimentally determined 3D macromolecular structures (proteins, RNA, DNA). The research‐focused RCSB.org web‐portal provides access to these data alongside more than one million machine‐learning‐predicted structure models, greatly expanding the available structural landscape. Rapid growth of both experimental and computational structures has increased the need for powerful yet accessible search tools that serve a broad and diverse scientific community. Herein, we describe a redesigned RCSB Protein Data Bank RCSB.org Advanced Search capability that supports intuitive discovery of 3D structures through a unified interface. This interface integrates annotation‐, sequence‐, and 3D structure‐based searches, embeds an interactive 3D viewer, and incorporates curated biological knowledge, such as catalytic site definitions from Mechanism and Catalytic Site Atlas and ligand‐guided structural motifs, for constructing geometry‐driven queries. A new Chemical Search tool allows definition of chemical queries via an integrated drawing tool or standard identifiers, seamlessly combining them with annotation filters. By allowing query definition directly within spatial and chemical contexts, these search interfaces reduce the need for detailed knowledge of residue numbering, chain identifiers, or external cheminformatics software. This capability enables efficient exploration of structures, chemical diversity, and structure–function relationships across all life domains. The redesigned interfaces can be accessed directly at rcsb.org/search/advanced for Advanced Search and rcsb.org/search/chemical for Chemical Search.

Rose, Yana [Research Collaboratory for Structural ↗

DOE OSTI2025

PIAFS: A 2D nonlinear hydrodynamics code to model gaseous optics

The survivability of final optics is expected to be a major challenge for all future inertial fusion energy concepts. Due to their higher damage threshold, gaseous optics have been identified as a promising solution to this problem. Gaseous optics can be created through the photoabsorption of spatially modulated UV light, which induces various chemical processes that heat the gas. This heating leads to a pressure perturbation, which in turn launches a density perturbation that can imprint a refractive index modulation such as a grating. In this article, we introduce a parallel C/C++ code to simulate gaseous optics. PIAFS2D is a high-order conservative finite-difference code to solve the compressible Navier–Stokes equations along with the photochemical heating sources on Cartesian grids. The simulations are validated by the linear theory derived in a previous paper [Michel et al., Phys. Rev. Appl. 22, 024014 (2024)]. For larger perturbations, the behavior of the system—particularly the evolution of the generated acoustic wave—demonstrates strong nonlinearity. PIAFS2D allows the study of nonlinear behaviors and can be used for the design of high-efficiency gaseous optics elements in realistic experimental conditions.

Oudin, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of the background in coherent J/ψ production at the EIC

Understanding various fundamental properties of nucleons and nuclei is among the most important scientific goals at the upcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). With the unprecedented opportunity provided by the next-generation machine, the EIC might provide definitive answers to many standing puzzles and open questions in modern nuclear physics. We investigate one of the golden measurements proposed at the EIC, which is to obtain the spatial gluon density distribution within a lead (Pb) nucleus. The proposed experimental process is the exclusive J/ψ vector-meson production off the Pb nucleus: e + Pb → e' + J/ψ + Pb'. The Fourier transformation of the momentum transfer |t| distribution of the coherent diffraction is the transverse gluon spatial distribution. In order to measure it, the experiment has to overcome an overwhelmingly large background arising from the incoherent diffractive production, where the nucleus Pb' mostly breaks up into fragments of particles in the far-forward direction close to the hadron-going beam rapidity. We systematically study the rejection of incoherent J/ψ production by vetoing products from these nuclear breakups—protons, neutrons, and photons—which is based on the BeAGLE event generator and the most up-to-date EIC Far-forward Interaction Region design. The achieved vetoing efficiency, the ratio between the numbers of vetoed events and total incoherent events, ranges from about 80% to 99% depending on |t|. Assuming a 5% smearing applied to the reconstructed |t| resolution in the Sar t re model, this vetoing efficiency can suppress the incoherent background to at least the first minimum of the coherent |t| distribution. Experimental and accelerator machine challenges as well as potential improvements are discussed herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Critical Balance and Firehose Instability in an Expanding, Turbulent, Collisionless Plasma

Abstract Using a hybrid-kinetic particle-in-cell simulation, we study the evolution of an expanding, collisionless, magnetized plasma in which strong Alfvénic turbulence is persistently driven. Temperature anisotropy generated adiabatically by the plasma expansion (and consequent decrease in the mean magnetic-field strength) gradually reduces the effective elasticity of the field lines, causing reductions in the linear frequency and residual energy of the Alfvénic fluctuations. In response, these fluctuations modify their interactions and spatial anisotropy to maintain a scale-by-scale “critical balance” between their characteristic linear and nonlinear frequencies. Eventually the plasma becomes unstable to kinetic firehose instabilities, which excite rapidly growing magnetic fluctuations at ion-Larmor scales. The consequent pitch-angle scattering of particles maintains the temperature anisotropy near marginal stability, even as the turbulent plasma continues to expand. The resulting evolution of parallel and perpendicular temperatures does not satisfy double-adiabatic conservation laws, but is described accurately by a simple model that includes anomalous scattering. Our results have implications for understanding the complex interplay between macro- and microscale physics in various hot, dilute, astrophysical plasmas, and offer predictions concerning power spectra, residual energy, ion-Larmor-scale spectral breaks, and non-Maxwellian features in ion distribution functions that may be tested by measurements taken in high-beta regions of the solar wind.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics and lipid membrane coupling of the RAS-RAF complex revealed via multiscale simulations

To gain molecular and mechanistic insights into initiation of the RAS-RAF signaling cascade, we developed and used a combination of multiscale simulation and experimental approaches. The influence and impact of the membrane on RAS and RAF proteins is a factor we are just beginning to understand and appreciate in more detail. Molecular simulation is an ideal methodology to further study this complicated relationship between the membrane and associated proteins. Our previous work using Multiscale Machine-learned Modeling Infrastructure investigated different lipid compositions solely around the KRAS4b protein and the interplay between protein behavior and these membrane environments. Multiscale Machine-learned Modeling Infrastructure uses machine learning to couple adjacent simulation scales and has been efficiently scaled across some of the world’s largest high-performance computers. Recently, we have expanded this multiresolution framework to include the all-atom simulation scale and to incorporate the RAF RBDCRD domains. Here, we present the overall analysis results from this new simulation campaign comprising a mixture of RAS and RAF RBDCRD proteins. Approximately 35,000 coarse-grained and 10,000 all-atom molecular dynamics simulations were completed, sampled from a variety of protein/lipid composition configurations that were generated from a micron-scale continuum simulation containing hundreds of copies of the proteins. Our studies suggest that orientations of the RAS-RBDCRD complex on the membrane occupy distinct configurational states, and the spatial patterns of lipid arrangements around these different protein states are unique to each state. The extent and size of lipid “fingerprints” imposed on the membrane by the RAS-RBDCRD protein complex are significantly larger than observed for just the RAS protein on its own. These protein complexes strongly associate, but we do not observe statistically significant preferred protein-protein orientations. These observations indicate that spatial colocalization of RAS-RBDCRD proteins in the same vicinity may be assisted by specific membrane environments, acting to increase the probability of signaling complex formation.

Carpenter, Timothy S. [Lawrence Livermore National↗

DOE OSTI2021

Plasma expansion and relativistic filamentation in intense laser-irradiated cone targets

We report that compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) cone targets have been shown to produce increased MeV photons on the NIF-ARC by 10× over flat targets. Multiple x-ray frames can potentially be generated by firing the NIF-ARC's beamlets into distinct cone targets at few nanosecond relative delays. This requires that the cone targets with delayed beams are not degraded by their proximity to previous targets. One concern is that the spatial wings of a beam fired into one target can fall on neighboring targets, producing a preformed plasma that may interfere with laser light reaching the tip of the cone. In this work, 3D hydra simulations of realistic targets and beam parameters show that hundreds of micrometer scale length preplasmas are produced in cones within 1 mm of the laser spot. 2D particle-in-cell simulations of the intense main pulse in this preplasma indicate a density threshold for the onset of relativistic filamentation in our conditions. Applying our modeling approach to a NIF-ARC shot with an intentional 15 J prepulse yields good agreement with experimental results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Kinetic simulation of a low-pressure helium discharge with comparison to experimental measurements

Modern computational validation efforts rely on comparison of known experimental quantities such as current, voltage, particle densities, and other plasma properties with the same values determined through simulation. A discrete photon approach for radiation transport was recently incorporated into a particle-in-cell/direct simulation Monte Carlo code. As a result, spatially and temporally resolved synthetic spectra may be generated even for non-equilibrium plasmas. The generation of this synthetic spectra lends itself to potentially new validation opportunities. In this work, initial comparisons of synthetic spectra are made with experimentally gathered optical emission spectroscopy. A custom test apparatus was constructed that contains a 0.5 cm gap distance parallel plane discharge in ultra high purity helium gas (99.9999%) at a pressure of 75 Torr. Plasma generation is initiated with the application of a fast rise-time, 100 ns full-width half maximum, 2.0 kV voltage pulse. Transient electrical diagnostics are captured along with time-resolved emission spectra. A one-dimensional simulation is run under the same conditions and compared against the experiment to determine if sufficient physics are included to model the discharge. To sync the current measurements from experiment and simulation, significant effort was undertaken to understand the kinetic scheme required to reproduce the observed features. Additionally, the role of the helium molecule excimer emission and atomic helium resonance emission on photocurrent from the cathode are studied to understand which effect dominates photo-feedback processes. Results indicate that during discharge development, atomic helium resonance emission dominates the photo-flux at the cathode even though it is strongly self-absorbed. A comparison between the experiment and simulation demonstrates that the simulation reproduces observed features in the experimental discharge current waveform. Here, the synthesized spectra from the kinetic method produces more favorable agreement with the experimental data than a simple local thermodynamic equilibrium calculation and is a first step towards using spectra generated from a kinetic method in validation procedures. The results of this study produced a detailed compilation of important helium plasma chemistry reactions for simulating transient helium plasma discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Irradiation damage concurrent challenges with RAFM and ODS steels for fusion reactor first-wall/blanket: a review

Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) and oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) steels are the most promising candidates for fusion first-wall/blanket (FW/B) structures. The performance of these steels will deteriorate during service due to neutron damage and transmutation-induced gases, such as helium/hydrogen, at elevated operating temperatures. Here, after highlighting the operating conditions of fusion reactor concepts and a brief overview, the main irradiation-induced degradation challenges associated with RAFM/ODS steels are discussed. Their long-term degradation scenarios such as (a) low-temperature hardening embrittlement (LTHE)—including dose-temperature dependent yield stress, tensile elongations, necking ductility, test temperature effect on hardening, Charpy impact ductile-to-brittle transition temperature and fracture toughness, (b) intermediate temperature cavity swelling, (c) the effect of helium on LTHE and cavity swelling, (d) irradiation creep and (e) tritium management issues are reviewed. The potential causes of LTHE are discussed, which highlights the need for advanced characterisation techniques. The mechanical properties, including the tensile/Charpy impact of RAFM and ODS steels, are compared to show that the current generation of ODS steels also suffers from LTHE, and shows irradiation hardening up to high temperatures of ~400 °C–500 °C. To minimise this, future ODS steel development for FW/B-specific application should target materials with a lower Cr concentration (to minimise α'), and minimise other elements that could form embrittling phases under irradiation. RAFM steel-designing activities targeting improvements in creep and LTHE are reviewed. The need to better understand the synergistic effects of helium on the thermo-mechanical properties in the entire temperature range of FW/B is highlighted. Because fusion operating conditions will be complex, including stresses due to the magnetic field, primary loads like coolant pressure, secondary loads from thermal gradients, and due to spatial variation in damage levels and gas production rates, an experimentally validated multiscale modelling approach is suggested as a pathway to future reactor component designing such as for the fusion neutron science facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transport of 12 GeV positron beams at Ce+BAF

Jefferson Lab (JLab) is developing a concept to upgrade the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) to additionally deliver spin-polarized continuous-wave positron beams for its nuclear physics program users (Ce+BAF 12 GeV). The concept involves repurposing the Low Energy Recirculator Facility (LERF) at JLab as a dual injector, first producing 100-300 MeV spin-polarized electron beams which are subsequently used for the generation and formation of 123 MeV continuous-wave positron beams. The positron beams are transported to CEBAF and injected for acceleration up to 12 GeV, tailored to the requirements of its four experimental halls. Given the higher emittance of the secondary positron beams, the CEBAF optics are optimized for low dispersion and low beta functions to enhance transmission within the Ce+BAF acceptance limits and with an R56 to manage the positron beams bunch length and energy spread. Potential bottlenecks are being investigated through both optical modeling and measurements using an electron beam, as well as degraded electron beams, to map the 6d acceptance of CEBAF as it is today. This presentation shares preliminary results from multi-particle tracking simulations of the positron beam up to 12 GeV, including spatial, momentum, and spin characteristics, and explores the feasibility of delivering beams simultaneously to multiple experimental halls via extraction optics.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2019

An Approach to Upscaling SPPARKS Generated Synthetic Microstructures of Additively Manufactured Metals

Additive manufacturing (AM) of metal parts can save time, energy, and produce parts that cannot otherwise be made with traditional machining methods. Near final part geometry is the goal for AM, but material microstructures are inherently different from those of wrought materials as they arise from a complex temperature history associated with the additive process. It is well known that strength and other properties of interest in engineering design follow from microstructure and temperature history. Because of complex microstructure morphologies and spatial heterogeneities, properties are heterogeneous and reflect underlying microstructure. This report describes a method for distributing properties across a finite element mesh so that effects of complex heterogeneous microstructures arising from additive manufacturing can be systematically incorporated into engineering scale calculations without the need for conducting a nearly impossible and time consuming effort of meshing material details. Furthermore, the method reflects the inherent variability in AM materials by making use of kinetic Monte Carlo calculations to model the AM process associated with a build.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Spatiotemporal video-domain high-fidelity simulation and realistic visualization of full-field dynamic responses of structures by a combination of high-spatial-resolution modal model and video motion manipulations

Structures with complex geometries, material properties, and boundary conditions exhibit spatially local dynamic behaviors. A high-spatial-resolution model of the structure is thus required for high-fidelity analysis, assessment, and prediction of the dynamic phenomena of the structure. The traditional approach is to build a highly refined finite element computer model for simulating and analyzing the structural dynamic phenomena based on detailed knowledge and explicit modeling of the structural physics such as geometries, materials properties, and boundary conditions. These physics information of the structure may not be available or accurately modeled in many cases, however. In addition, the simulation on the high-spatial-resolution structural model, with a massive number of degrees of freedom and system parameters, is computationally demanding. Here this study, on a proof-of-principle basis, proposes a novel alternative approach for spatiotemporal video-domain high-fidelity simulation and realistic visualization of full-field structural dynamics by an innovative combination of the fundamentals of structural dynamic modeling and the advanced video motion manipulation techniques. Specifically, a low-modal-dimensional yet high-spatial (pixel)-resolution (as many spatial points as the pixel number on the structure in the video frame) modal model is established in the spatiotemporal video domain with full-field modal parameters first estimated from line-of-sight video measurements of the operating structure. Then in order to simulate new dynamic response of the structure subject to a new force, the force is projected onto each modal domain, and the modal response is computed by solving each individual single-degree-of-freedom system in the modal domain. The simulated modal responses are then synthesized by the full-field mode shapes using modal superposition to obtain the simulated full-field structural dynamic response. Finally, the simulated structural dynamic response is embedded into the original video, replacing the original motion of the video, thus generating a new photo-realistic, physically accurate video that enables a realistic, high-fidelity visualization/animation of the simulated full-field vibration of the structure. Laboratory experiments are conducted to validate the proposed method, and the error sources and limitations in practical implementations are also discussed. Compared with high-fidelity finite element computer model simulations of structural dynamics, the video-based simulation method removes the need to explicitly model the structure's physics. In addition, the photo-realistic, physically accurate simulated video provides a realistic visualization/animation of the full-field structural dynamic response, which was not traditionally available. Lastly, these features of the proposed method should enable a new alternative to the traditional computer-aided finite element model simulation for high-fidelity simulating and realistically visualizing full-field structural dynamics in a relatively efficient and user-friendly manner.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-driven super-resolution in Raman hyperspectral imaging: Efficient high-resolution reconstruction from low-resolution data

Deep learning (DL) has become an indispensable tool in hyperspectral data analysis, automatically extracting valuable features from complex, high-dimensional datasets. Super-resolution reconstruction, an essential aspect of hyperspectral data, involves enhancing spatial resolution, particularly relevant to low-resolution hyperspectral data. Yet, the pursuit of super-resolution in hyperspectral analysis is fraught with challenges, including acquiring ground truth high-resolution data for training, generalization, and scalability. The pressing issue of extended spectral acquisition times, notably for high-resolution scans, is a significant roadblock in hyperspectral imaging. Super-resolution methods offer a promising solution by providing higher spatial resolution data to expedite data collection and yield more efficient outcomes. This paper delves into a practical application of these concepts using Raman imaging, where spectral acquisition times can be prohibitively long. In this context, DL-based super-resolution models demonstrate their efficacy by predicting and reconstructing high-resolution Raman data from low-resolution input, eliminating the need for resource-intensive high-resolution scans. While previous work often relied on substantial high-resolution datasets, this study showcases the ability to achieve similar outcomes even with limited data, presenting a more practical and cost-effective approach. In conclusion, the results offer a glimpse into the transformative potential of this technology to streamline hyperspectral imaging applications by saving valuable time and resources through the successful generation of high-resolution data from low-resolution inputs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Particle hit clustering and identification using point set transformers in liquid argon time projection chambers

Liquid argon time projection chambers are often used in neutrino physics and dark-matter searches because of their high spatial resolution. The images generated by these detectors are extremely sparse, as the energy values detected by most of the detector are equal to 0, meaning that despite their high resolution, most of the detector is unused in a particular interaction. Instead of representing all of the empty detections, the interaction is usually stored as a sparse matrix, a list of detection locations paired with their energy values. Traditional machine learning methods that have been applied to particle reconstruction such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), however, cannot operate over data stored in this way and therefore must have the matrix fully instantiated as a dense matrix. Operating on dense matrices requires a lot of memory and computation time, in contrast to directly operating on the sparse matrix. We propose a machine learning model using a point set neural network that operates over a sparse matrix, greatly improving both processing speed and accuracy over methods that instantiate the dense matrix, as well as over other methods that operate over sparse matrices. Compared to competing state-of-the-art methods, our method improves classification performance by 14%, segmentation performance by more than 22%, while taking 80% less time and using 66% less memory. Compared to state-of-the-art CNN methods, our method improves classification performance by more than 86%, segmentation performance by more than 71%, while reducing runtime by 91% and reducing memory usage by 61%.

calibration and fitting methods↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement report: Understanding the seasonal cycle of Southern Ocean aerosols

Abstract. The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic region have meant that observations in this region are rare, and typically restricted to summertime during research or resupply voyages. Observations of aerosols outside of the summer season are typically limited to long-term stations, such as Kennaook / Cape Grim (KCG; 40.7∘ S, 144.7∘ E), which is situated in the northern latitudes of the Southern Ocean, and Antarctic research stations, such as the Japanese operated Syowa (SYO; 69.0∘ S, 39.6∘ E). Measurements in the midlatitudes of the Southern Ocean are important, particularly in light of recent observations that highlighted the latitudinal gradient that exists across the region in summertime. Here we present 2 years (March 2016–March 2018) of observations from Macquarie Island (MQI; 54.5∘ S, 159.0∘ E) of aerosol (condensation nuclei larger than 10 nm, CN10) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at various supersaturations) concentrations. This important multi-year data set is characterised, and its features are compared with the long-term data sets from KCG and SYO together with those from recent, regionally relevant voyages. CN10 concentrations were the highest at KCG by a factor of ∼50 % across all non-winter seasons compared to the other two stations, which were similar (summer medians of 530, 426 and 468 cm−3 at KCG, MQI and SYO, respectively). In wintertime, seasonal minima at KCG and MQI were similar (142 and 152 cm−3, respectively), with SYO being distinctly lower (87 cm−3), likely the result of the reduction in sea spray aerosol generation due to the sea ice ocean cover around the site. CN10 seasonal maxima were observed at the stations at different times of year, with KCG and MQI exhibiting January maxima and SYO having a distinct February high. Comparison of CCN0.5 data between KCG and MQI showed similar overall trends with summertime maxima and wintertime minima; however, KCG exhibited slightly (∼10 %) higher concentrations in summer (medians of 158 and 145 cm−3, respectively), whereas KCG showed ∼40 % lower concentrations than MQI in winter (medians of 57 and 92 cm−3, respectively). Spatial and temporal trends in the data were analysed further by contrasting data to coincident observations that occurred aboard several voyages of the RSV Aurora Australis and the RV Investigator. Results from this study are important for validating and improving our models and highlight the heterogeneity of this pristine region and the need for further long-term observations that capture the seasonal cycles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗