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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Complex System Health Management and Decision Making

The landscape of complex engineered systems is rapidly evolving, from smart manufacturing facilities to next-generation transportation vehicles. As these systems become increasingly sophisticated and interconnected, the need for advanced health management systems grows ever more critical. These systems must go beyond simple monitoring, actively predicting potential failures before they occur. This paradigm shift from fixed maintenance schedules to condition-based predictions is key to optimizing system performance, enhancing safety, and paving the way for autonomous decision-making across various industries. Whether in industrial processes, energy systems, or advanced transportation, the ability to anticipate and prevent failures is becoming a cornerstone of operational excellence. To accurately predict the future health of any complex system, knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions is essential. Recent advancements in data-driven algorithms have generated growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. However, the limitations of pure data-driven methods, particularly in industries where data acquisition is costly and limited, have become apparent. This has led to a focus on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, mitigating the drawbacks of both approaches while emphasizing their respective advantages. This research proposes a novel framework for integrating physics-based performance models with deep learning algorithms for the prognostics of complex safety-critical systems. In this approach, physics-based models serve as a blueprint, capturing fundamental system behaviors, while deep learning algorithms, leveraging real-world sensor data, fill in gaps and identify subtle patterns indicative of potential problems. This hybrid methodology, utilizing techniques such as Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), offers a powerful solution for predicting system health. By fusing domain knowledge with data-driven insights, this approach promises more accurate, adaptable, and reliable models for health prediction. The resulting framework is versatile, applicable across various sectors including aerospace, manufacturing, and energy systems, ultimately contributing to safer, more efficient operations in our increasingly complex technological landscape.

Diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation of the surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea: a Lagrangian perspective

Previous studies on cross-shelf exchange, predominantly adopted an Eulerian perspective, struggled to identify water sources and pathways. Using a high-resolution regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) and Lagrangian particle tracking, this study systematically investigates the seasonal variation and dynamics of surface cross-shelf exchange in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) from a Lagrangian perspective. Based on daily released 30-day drifter trajectories we identify the key pathways, source regions for surface cross-shelf exchange, revealing pronounced seasonal variability. Results show the surface cross-shelf exchange generally following monsoon-driven Ekman transport. However, local dynamics, especially topographic modulation, can outweigh the expected Ekman-driven transport, producing surface exchange patterns opposite to that predicted from the prevailing winds. Topographic effects vary across different scales. In the coastal waters of western Guangdong during winter, despite downwelling-favorable winds, the modulation of alongshore currents by island topography induces an eastward pressure gradient. This gradient, through geostrophic balance, drives offshore flows opposite to wind-driven Ekman onshore transport. Furthermore, the eastern widened shelf exhibits a distinct seasonal variation of cross-shelf exchange, with strong offshore transport (opposite to the direction of Ekman transport) in winter and exceedingly weak exchange in summer. Analysis of the underlying mechanisms reveals that this winter offshore transport is primarily attributed to geostrophic flows driven by surface pressure gradient that is jointly modulated by the Kuroshio intrusion and local widened shelf topography, and enhanced by cumulative submesoscale processes. In summer, a persistent and strong along-isobath jet acts as a dynamic barrier, effectively suppressing the exchange. These findings highlight the important role of topography in regulating surface material transport, and have important implications for predicting the advection and dispersion of plankton or oil spills over the continental shelf influenced by monsoon.

Hao, Dongliang↗

DOE OSTI2026

Divergent carbon use efficiency-growth rate tradeoff in popular biological growth models

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an important trait emerging from processes regulating biological growth. CUE can be computed either based on the growth of structural biomass or total biomass divided by substrate uptake rate. Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and observations suggest that, for an exponentially growing population of cells, structural biomass CUE should first increase, then peak, and finally decrease with specific growth rate; meanwhile, total biomass CUE increases asymptotically with specific growth rate. We compared predictions from six popular models that are often used for plant and microbial growth in existing ecosystem models. We found that, for an exponentially growing population of biological cells, (1) the source-driven Pirt and Compromise models predict that structural biomass CUE increase asymptotically with growth rate; (2) the apparent sink-driven modified Droop model predicts that structural biomass CUE decreases with growth rate; and (3) the sink-driven variable internal storage model and two dynamic energy budget models predict that structural biomass CUE first increases, then peaks, and finally decreases with growth rate. Moreover, the modified Droop model predicts that total biomass CUE is constant with growth rate, while all other five models predict that total biomass CUE increases with growth rate asymptotically. For non-exponential biological growth, we show that there is no static relationship between total biomass CUE or structural biomass CUE with respect to either growth rate or temperature. Therefore, we contend that biological growth models should explicitly represent interactions between substrate acquisition, substate transformation, and maintenance respiration to better capture observed CUE dynamics, and the sink-driven model should be preferred for general ecosystem biogeochemistry modeling.

Tang, Jinyun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tensorized Interior Radiative Heat Transfer for a Scalable and Calibrated Building Energy Simulator

Building energy simulation is a critical tool for developing and testing advanced control strategies, such as Reinforcement Learning (RL), to provide demand flexibility and affordable energy costs. The recently introduced Smart Buildings Control Suite (sbsim) provides a lightweight, scalable, and data-calibrated simulation environment based on a 2D finite-difference model. However, the initial model primarily focused on conductive and convective heat transfer, neglecting the significant impact of long-wave radiative heat exchange between interior surfaces. This paper presents a significant extension to the sbsim framework by incorporating a physically-grounded model for interior radiative heat transfer. Our primary contribution is the development and integration of a fully tensorized radiative heat transfer module, which preserves the computational efficiency and scalability of the original simulator. This was achieved by developing a pipeline for view factor calculation, including an algorithm to identify directly seeing surfaces within complex floor plans, and formulating the net radiation equations for efficient execution on modern hardware accelerators. We validate the numerical accuracy of our tensorized implementation by comparing its results against a traditional iterative approach, demonstrating identical outcomes. This enhancement increases the physical fidelity of sbsim, enabling more accurate training of RL agents for building energy optimization.

Ham, Sang woo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Validation of a High-Vacuum Thermal Conductivity Testbed for Aerospace Interface Materials

Spacecraft thermal margins depend on the temperature penalty of installed interfaces, yet catalog conductivity omits bondline thickness, mating surfaces, preload, and environment. The Testbed for Advanced Interface Materials in Vacuum (TAIMV) addresses this engineering-data gap by converting ambient/vacuum temperature fields from a four-coupon stack into quantities usable in spacecraft thermal models. Its 17-node steady-state model resolves axial conduction, parasitic fixture paths, grease-filled contact, radiation, and ambient convection. Four monolithic checks gave axial heat-rate ratios of 0.90–1.02, and Braycote calibration self-recovery gave 2.20% casewise mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 2.85% maximum difference. With transferable fixture terms frozen, Krytox LVP tested cross-material transfer against a manufacturer-derived external relation. The six Krytox cases gave 2.28% MAPE, 5.10% maximum difference, and full-field residual root-mean-square values of 0.553 °C ambient and 1.306 °C vacuum. Installed-joint resistance spanned 6.39–7.15 × 10⁻⁴ m²·K/W for Braycote and 4.09–4.49 × 10⁻⁴ m²·K/W for Krytox, corresponding to 2.33–6.66 K per modeled interface over the tested heat-flux range. TAIMV therefore supplies directly usable installed-joint resistance and conductance, plus apparent installed conductivity and explicitly model-conditioned grease conductivity/contact terms.

heat transfer↗

NASA NTRS2010

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed [3],[5]. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "rule-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rile-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions) [4], a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) [1] has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," call found in [5]. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies [5]. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to all of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

False Alarms↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of frost formation and heat transfer on fin-and-tube heat exchangers in turbulent cross-flow

Frost formation in fin-and-tube heat exchangers in turbulent cross-flow presents significant challenges in industrial refrigeration applications, affecting heat transfer efficiency and operational reliability. The purpose of this work is to investigate frost deposition and growth on a staggered bank of a fin-and-tube freezer coil under turbulent forced convection conditions. The focus here is on investigating conditions that closely replicate real-world scenarios in large walk-in industrial freezers. Using a direct numerical simulation approach, we examine the flow dynamics and thermal behaviour in the presence of frost, considering turbulent regimes characterized by a Reynolds number in the range 1050 ≤ R e D , avg ≤ 4800 , with the characteristic length being the outer diameter of the tube and the velocity being the bulk fluid velocity between the plates (fins). Computational fluid dynamics simulations are employed to resolve the interactions between turbulent airflow and the frost layer. Our approach incorporates a modified immersed boundary method and a slow-time acceleration technique to address the complex dynamic interface between the continuously evolving frost layer and the flowing air stream. Our findings indicate that frost forms more on the sides of the finned surfaces (plates) and less on the tubes themselves. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Behaviors of Lunar Regolith Simulant Under Varying Gravitational Conditions

Understanding the behavior of regolith in varying gravity conditions is critical for space exploration and future missions. In this work, the gravity-driven hopper flow of lunar regolith simulant in different gravitational accelerations (terrestrial, lunar) is first observed experimentally. Numerical simulations (DEM) are then developed to understand the role which cohesive inter-particle forces play in such gravity-driven flow, using the theoretical framework of granular Bond number. Qualitative comparison between a terrestrial experiment and numerical simulation validated this framework. Following that, we numerically studied the dynamic behavior under varying gravitational conditions (from terrestrial to lunar to asteroid gravitational accelerations). We find that this behavior is extremely sensitive to the interplay of the gravity conditions and the attractive/cohesive forces among particles. The numerical and experimental results show that the complex interaction of these forces can drastically change the dynamics of the material producing effects relevant for variable gravity applications.

Soft Matter↗

NASA NTRS2023

Cryogenic Flow Boiling in Microgravity: Effects of Reduced Gravity on Two-Phase Fluid Physics and Heat Transfer

With the growing interest in space exploration, cryogenic technologies involving two-phase flow and heat transfer are in high demand to successfully procure advanced space applications such as fuel depots and nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) systems for deep space missions. However, the unique and extreme thermal properties of cryogenic fluids introduce distinct flow boiling fluid physics and energy transport phenomena, which differ significantly from those observed with conventional fluids. Understanding the unique two-phase physics in cryogenic flow boiling remains an ongoing challenge. Furthermore, the lack of readily available microgravity cryogenic steady-state heat transfer data hinders the assessment of gravitational effects on cryogenic flow boiling. This study aims to elucidate the gravitational effects on two-phase fluid physics and heat transfer by conducting the first-ever experimental measurement of cryogenic flow boiling performance using a steady-state heated method in a reduced gravity environment. Parabolic flight experiments were performed to acquire both heat transfer measurements and high-speed video of interfacial behaviors, under varying gravity levels (microgravity, hypergravity, Lunar gravity, and Martian gravity). The experiments involved flow boiling of liquid nitrogen (LN 2 ) with a near-saturated inlet along a circular heated tube of dimensions 8.5-mm inner diameter and 680-mm heated length. The operating parameters varied are mass velocity of 398.3 - 1342.8 kg/m2s, inlet quality of -0.08 to -0.01, and inlet pressure of 413.68 - 689.48 kPa. Captured microgravity flow patterns range from bubbly to annular, all having vapor structures that are larger than those under higher gravity levels. Under microgravity, absence of buoyancy yields symmetrical vapor structures without flow stratification, laying a physical foundation for the distinct two-phase heat transfer trends during LN 2 flow boiling in microgravity. Transient data collected during the flight parabolas exhibited decreasing heated wall temperature as the aircraft transitioned from hypergravity to microgravity phases. The temperature variation indicated an enhancement in flow boiling heat transfer with decreasing gravity levels and a reduction with increasing gravity levels. The effect of reduced gravity on cryogenic flow boiling heat transfer coefficient (HTC) is discussed based on steady state heat transfer analysis. Seminal HTC correlations are evaluated against the measured microgravity HTC data, of which one is identified for superior accuracy in predicting microgravity data. Finally, a new HTC correlation is proposed to improve accuracy of microgravity predictions, yet there still exists room for further improvement with future terrestrial flow boiling experiments at different flow orientations relative to Earth gravity.

Microgravity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Shape Optimization of Actively-Cooled Battery Packs Using Conjugate Heat Transfer

Thermal management for battery is important for electric aircraft because battery temperature is critically important to vehicle safety, and it also has direct impact on the efficiency of the battery system. Because ambient air is a readily available resource for aircraft, this paper considers an active cooling concept with forced convection of ambient air through the battery pack. Conjugate heat transfer analysis is used to solve the coupled aero-thermal problem, which consists of a finite-volume computational fluid dynamics solver for the fluid domain, and a conduction heat transfer solver for the solid domain. A mixed Neumann and Dirichlet boundary condition is developed for the fluid-solid interface, which allows the solid domain to completely submerge in the fluid domain. A gradient-based optimization method is adopted, and the discrete adjoint approach implemented in DAFoam is used to efficiently compute the gradients. The aero-thermal coupling for primal analysis and gradient computation is handled using the OpenMDAO-based MPhys framework. A constant heat source is prescribed for the battery cells, and the battery shape (design variable) is optimized to minimize cooling pump power and battery weight (composite objective function) while keeping the battery temperature below a threshold (constraint). The optimized design achieves a 44.6% and 1.5% reduction in the cooling pump power and battery weight, respectively, and the maximal temperature constraint is satisfied. This work has the potential to reduce battery-pack weight, improve performance, and reduce the weight of thermal management systems for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft.

heat transfer↗

NASA NTRS1977

Riddles About the Origin and Thermal History of the Moon

Analyses of lunar rocks have confirmed that the interior of the Moon has been subjected to magmatic differentiation, as has been determined by calculation of the thermal history of the Moon. However, it appears that differentiation occurred so early that it could not have been related to heating by long-lived radioactive elements, but rather indicates a high initial temperature of the Moon. The reasons for the high initial temperature remain unknown. The presence of a central, partially melted area revealed by seismic observations forces us to reject convective models of the Moon, while the dimensions of this area, together with the measured heat fluxes from the interior, serve as "boundary conditions" for any new calculations of the thermal history for a two-layered differentiated model of the Moon operative over the past 3.5 billion years. If we start with the early differentiation of the Moon and the high content of long-lived radioactive elements in it, explanation of its current thermal properties represents no difficulty. But these prerequisites themselves remain unexplained. Due to the continuing controversy concerning the true nature of the process of magmatic differentiation of the Moon, estimation of the composition of the entire Moon on the basis of analyses of surface rock remains unreliable, and use of these estimates to clarify the origin of the Moon is premature. Existing hypotheses concerning the origin of the Moon encounter dynamic difficulties, as well as difficulties with explanation of the high initial temperature, to say nothing of the difficulty involved in explaining the proposed differences in the composition of the Earth and Moon.

B Yu Levin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Shape Optimization of Actively-Cooled Battery Packs using Conjugate Heat Transfer

thermal management↗

NASA NTRS2026

Hybrid Modeling Study on Grain Evolution in the Metal Welding Process and Its Potential Lunar Application

Metal is most commonly used structural material in a wide range of spacecraft, and welding is the principal method for joining metal components into functional systems. However, conducting welding experiments under extreme environments—such as microgravity or vacuum conditions in space—is prohibitively expensive and experimentally challenging. To overcome these limitations, multi-physics computational welding models provide a cost-effective and versatile alternative. In this work, the authors have developed a coupled thermal (fluid) microstructure simulation framework to model metal welding under varying gravity conditions. The framework integrates a mixed-mode heat transfer formulation (conduction, convection, and radiation) with molten pool fluid dynamics, enabling accurate prediction of temperature fields and weld-pool geometry. A grain growth model is further incorporated to capture the spatial and temporal evolution of microstructure, including grain size distribution and morphological transitions during solidification. This approach provides detailed insight into molten pool evolution and grain-level microstructure development throughout the welding process. By explicitly parameterizing environmental conditions, the model supports extrapolation to off-Earth manufacturing scenarios such as welding on the lunar surface. Tantalum—chosen in this study due to its high melting point, oxidation resistance, and mechanical stability at elevated temperatures—serves as the material system for model demonstration. Beyond Tantalum, the integrated multi-physics framework offers broad applicability for predictive welding simulations of various structural and refractory metals or alloys used in extreme terrestrial or extraterrestrial environments.

kinetic Monte Carlo (SPPARKS)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Rewet Temperature Correlations for Liquid-Nitrogen Boiling Pipe Flows Across Varying Flow Conditions and Orientations

In many convective liquid-vapor phase change heat transfer engineering applications, cryogenic fluids are widely used in industrial processes, spacecraft and cryosurgery systems, and so on. For example, cryogens are usually used as liquid fuels such as liquid hydrogen and oxygen in the rocket industry, liquid nitrogen (LN2) and helium are frequently used to cool superconducting magnetic device for medical applications. In these systems, proper transport, handling, and storage of cryogenic fluids are of extreme importance. Among all the cryogenic transport processes performed in room temperatures, quenching, also termed chilldown, is a unavoidable initial, transient phase-change heat transfer process that brings the system down to the cryogenic condition. The Leidenfrost temperature or rewet temperature that signals the end of film boiling is practically considered the completion point of a quenching process. Therefore, rewet temperature has been considered the most important parameter for the engineering design of cryogenic thermal management systems. As most of the previous correlations for predicting the Leidenfrost temperature and the rewet temperature have been basically developed for water, they are shown to disagree with recent liquid nitrogen pipe chilldown experiments in upward and downward flow directions over a wide range of flow rates, pressures, and degrees of inlet subcooling. In addition to a complete review of the literature, two new correlations are presented in this work, one based on bubble growth and another based on the theoretical maximum limit of superheat. Each correlation performs well over the entire data set.

liquid nitrogen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying structure-function relationships to modulate crossover in nonaqueous redox flow batteries

QSPR analyses can be used to identify useful descriptors leading to statistical models for membrane crossover. This data-driven approach can be used to evaluate ROMs for asymmetric non-aqueous redox flow batteries.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Forensic characterization of surrogate nuclear explosion debris: radiochemical and spectroscopic strategies for method validation

Surrogate nuclear explosion debris (SNED) has emerged as a critical platform for advancing post-detonation nuclear forensic analysis in the absence of readily accessible historic materials. SNED enables controlled investigation and validation of analytical methodologies used to interrogate the chemical, isotopic, radiological, and microstructural signatures preserved in nuclear explosion debris. This review presents an integrated assessment of destructive and non-destructive analytical techniques commonly employed within decision-driven nuclear forensic workflows. Each technique is discussed individually while highlighting how it contributes to different stages of post-detonation analysis. Core methods – including gamma and alpha spectrometry, ICP-MS, TIMS, SIMS, SEM-EDS, XRF, LIBS, vibrational spectroscopy, and X-ray absorption spectroscopy – are critically evaluated with respect to forensic maturity, information content, and matrix limitations. Emphasis is placed on the role of SNED in benchmarking multi-modal workflows and identifying gaps in reproducing heterogeneity, fractionation, and radiation-driven evolution relevant to forensic attribution.

X-ray spectroscopic methods↗

NASA NTRS2014

Battery Cell Balancing System and Method

A battery cell balancing system is operable to utilize a relatively small number of transformers interconnected with a battery having a plurality of battery cells to selectively charge the battery cells. Windings of the transformers are simultaneously driven with a plurality of waveforms whereupon selected battery cells or groups of cells are selected and charged. A transformer drive circuit is operable to selectively vary the waveforms to thereby vary a weighted voltage associated with each of the battery cells.

Davies, Francis J.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Improvement in the Thermal-to-Structural Model Mapping Process for Integrated Modeling for the Roman Space Telescope

Integrated Modeling has been a key component of verifying optical requirements for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (RST) that are either impossible or impractical to verify exclusively through ground testing. Two major areas for integrated Modeling are Jitter and Thermal Distortion that require the exchanges of model performance predictions across disciplines. In both cases, distortions are impressed on optical models to evaluate the impact on boresight alignment and wave front error. In the case of Jitter, the disturbances are driven by reactions to motions most often from actuators; however, in the case of thermal distortion, the motions are driven by thermal expansion or contraction as a result of changing temperatures. This then requires a link further upstream to the thermal model, which is used to predict the thermal performance and temperature gradients and stability. The process for mapping temperatures from a thermal model to a corresponding structural model has been performed numerous times through the RST project lifecycle, with improvements in the accuracy, verification, and effort sought throughout. This paper describes some of the recent improvements to the process, including: capture of the visualization parameters, automatic generation of the mapped images for both the thermal and structural model groupings, and reduction in the effort to assemble the full set of mapped temperatures. These upgrades have greatly reduced the manual effort associated with thermal mapping and allowed for faster turn-around of Integrated Modeling predictions.

Thermal Mapping↗