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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
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DOE OSTI2024

Final Physics Design of Proton Improvement Plan-II At Fermilab

This paper presents the final physics design of the Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) at Fermilab, focusing on the linear accelerator (Linac) and its beam transfer line. We address the challenges in longitudinal and transverse lattice design, specifically targeting collective effects, parametric resonances, and space charge nonlinearities that impact beam stability and emittance control. The strategies implemented effectively mitigate space charge complexities, resulting in significant improvements in beam quality -- evidenced by reduced emittance growth, lower beam halo, decreased loss, and better energy spread management. This comprehensive study is pivotal for the PIP-II project's success, providing valuable insights and approaches for future accelerator designs, especially in managing nonlinearities and enhancing beam dynamics.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling the broader adoption of fusion simulation on complex geometry

This project addressed a key barrier to advanced fusion and nuclear simulation: the difficulty of performing high-fidelity Monte Carlo neutronics directly on complex, real-world CAD geometry. Traditional workflows require engineers to rebuild CAD models as simplified constructive solid geometry, a time-consuming and error-prone process that limits design iteration and broader adoption of simulation tools. The goal of this Phase I SBIR was to make CAD-based neutronics practical, accessible, and robust for industrial and research users. During the project, Coreform significantly enhanced the Direct Accelerated Geometry Monte Carlo (DAGMC) workflow and fully integrated it into Coreform Cubit as a first-class capability. Major achievements include optimized material assignment and surface meshing workflows, substantial performance improvements to geometry imprinting and preparation, native export of DAGMC models, and new visualization tools to support OpenMC source definition and lost-particle debugging. Coreform also expanded Cubit’s capabilities as a full OpenMC preprocessor, including the ability to convert OpenMC constructive solid geometry models back into CAD for visualization, multiphysics coupling, and debugging. In collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory, the project delivered comprehensive new DAGMC documentation and training materials, transforming DAGMC from a research-oriented tool into a production-ready workflow. Results were disseminated through tutorials, conference training, and multiple well-attended webinars demonstrating integrated CAD-based neutronics and multiphysics workflows. Overall, this project demonstrated that high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations can be performed directly on complex CAD geometry, reducing setup time, improving usability, and enabling faster, more informed design decisions for fusion and nuclear energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of an optical TPC Geant4 simulation with opticks GPU-accelerated photon propagation

We investigate the performance of Opticks, a NVIDIA OptiX API 7.5 GPU-accelerated photon propagation tool compared with a single-threaded Geant4 simulation. We compare the simulations using an improved model of the NEXT-CRAB-0 gaseous time projection chamber. Performance results suggest that Opticks improves simulation speeds by between 58.47 ± 0.02 and 181.39 ± 0.28 times relative to a CPU-only Geant4 simulation and these results vary between different types of GPU and CPU. A detailed comparison shows that the number of detected photons, along with their times and wavelengths, are in good agreement between Opticks and Geant4.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bottom-up design of actinide materials from molecular clusters: Demonstration of a general-purpose simulation capability leveraging machine-learned atomic potentials

Actinide thin-film coatings such as uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) play an important role in nuclear reactors and other mission-relevant applications, but realization of their potential requires a deep fundamental understanding of the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) processes used for their growth. The slow experimental progress can be attributed, in part, to the standard safety guidelines associated with handling uranium byproducts, which are often corrosive, toxic, and radioactive. Accurate simulation techniques, when used in concert with experiment, can improve laboratory safety, material durability, and deliverable timeframes. However, state-of-the-art computational methods are either insufficiently accurate or intractably expensive. To remedy this situation, in this project we suggested a machine-learning (ML) accelerated workflow for simulating molecular clustering toward deposition. As a benchmark test case, we considered molecular clustering in steam and assessed independent components of our workflow by comparing with measured thermodynamic properties of water. After analyzing each component individually and finding no fundamental barrier to realization of the workflow, we attempted to integrate the ML component, a Sandia-developed tool called FitSNAP. As this was the first application of FitSNAP to atoms and molecules in the gas phase at Sandia, the method required more fitting data than was originally anticipated. Systematic improvements were made by including in the fit data diatomic potentials, molecular single-bond-breaking curves, and symmetry-constrained intermolecular potentials. We concluded that our strategy provides a feasible pathway toward modeling CVD and related processes, but that extensive training data must be generated before it can be of practical use.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

In Situ Thermodynamics and Kinetics of Mixed-Valence Inorganic Crystal Formation

We have found that the established methods to discover and produce earth-abundant iron-containing active layers are very inefficient. The prospective new material iron silicon sulfide, Fe 2 SiS 4 , was previously only synthesized by slow reactions of metallic iron, silicon, and sulfur powders, resulting in poor yield. We found that using an ordered iron-silicon alloy as a feedstock results in a much faster reaction at a lower temperature. We could track this reaction using our unique in-situ X-ray diffractometer, which allows us to heat our encapsulated material up to 1000°C while providing a simultaneous picture of how the atoms in the structure rearrange. We are using this powerful new technique to search for new active layers and optimize their formation by creative use of more complex reagents. Our key accomplishments are mechanisms for improving synthesis, and new materials that result from them. We have demonstrated the utility of high-throughput, DOE-developed infrastructure, such as the Materials Project, to accelerate materials discovery and synthesis. We have pioneered new capabilities of user facilities, such as beamlines 6-BM, 17-BM, and 11-BM at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) and POWGEN and NOMAD at the Spallation Neutron Source.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beam Optics Measurements at the Fermilab Linac

The Fermilab Linac delivers 400 MeV H- beam to the rest of the accelerator complex. The Linac will be replaced by a SRF Linac that doubles the output energy as part of the Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) project. For successful PIP-II commissioning and operation, a comprehensive suite of longitudinal and transverse measurements are planned to fully characterize the beam dynamics. In the 400 MeV Linac, we used prototype programs to demonstrate the viability of these workflows. Here we present the results of these measurements of longitudinal and transverse optics.

Chen, Erin [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMoFi - Intelligent Model Fidelity: Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrodynamic and Radiographic Toolbox (HART)

With a multi-lab and university team, we propose to develop new methods for a Hydrodynamic and Radiographic Toolbox (HART) that will enable a fuller and more extensive use of experimental radiographic data towards better characterizing and reducing uncertainties in predictive modeling of weapons performance. We will achieve this by leveraging recent developments in areas of computational imaging, statistical and machine learning, and reduced order modeling of hydrodynamics. In terms of software practices, by partnering with XCP (RISTRA Project) we will conform to recent XCP standards that are inline with modern software practices and standards and ensure compatibility and ease of inter-operability with existing codes. Three new activities under this proposal include (a) the development and use of deep learning-based surrogates to accelerate reconstruction and variational inference of density fields from radiographs of hydrotests, (b) a model-data fusion strategy that couples deep learning-based density reconstructions with fast hydrodynamics simulators to better constrain the reconstruction, and (c) a method for treating asymmetries using techniques adopted from limited view tomography. All three new activities will be based on improved treatment of scatter, noise, beam spot movement, detector blur, and flat fielding in the forward model, and a use of sophisticated priors to aid in the re construction. The improvements to the forward model and improved algorithmic design of the reconstruction when complete will be contained in the iterative reconstruction code SHIVA—a code project that we have recently initiated. The many ways in which machine learning can be used in the reconstruction work will be contained in a code HERMES that has been initiated with DTRA support. For example, the significant levels of acceleration that will likely be achieved by the use of machine learning techniques will permit us (and are required) to quantify uncertainties in density retrievals. Next, the two-way coupling between density reconstruction and model-based simulation of the hydrodynamics will be contained in code EREBUS, and will permit a fuller realization of the potential of the data to constrain the hydrodynamic model and better address issues related to asymmetries in the problem. Finally, we anticipate that the better consistency with physics achieved in our reconstructions will allow them to be used by X-Division more so than today.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the LANL Multi-Probe Radiography Project [Slides]

Future radiographic facilities for the U.S. defense program will be required to provide more information as simulation codes improve in both physics’ fidelity and resolution. A possible approach is to use more types of probe beams in addition to, or instead of X-rays, generated by 20-MeV electron accelerators from a small number of directions. High power short-pulse laser systems can generate beams of protons, neutrons and electrons, as well as X-rays. The cost of these systems is falling rapidly. So, it can be imagined that deploying multiple short-pulse lasers along with other, more traditional probes, will become feasible. In this project, we are following three paths to determine if such an approach will succeed for cm-scale objects. The first is an experimental one to determine if the presence of multiple short-pulse probes cause interference with each other, especially while radiographing dynamic objects. The second leg of this project is to determine if having multiple types of probes really does give more information on composition. Finally, an overall assessment of the viability of this approach will be made. Examples from recent experiments at the Omega EP laser will be presented. The initial approach to evaluating radiographs with multiple probes using the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) also will be given.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initial conditions for simulations of beam physics in linear induction accelerators

Flash radiography of hydrodynamic experiments driven by high explosives is a well-known diagnostic technique in use at many laboratories. At Los Alamos, the DualAxis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility two linear induction electron accelerators (LIAs) make the bremsstrahlung radiographic source spots for point projection radiographs from orthogonal views. A new LIA, called Scorpius, is presently under development to advance this technology. To better understand electron-beam physics in these LIAs, numerical simulations are frequently performed with the objective of improving the radiography. At Los Alamos we frequently use the TRAK ray-trace and LSP particle-in-cell (PIC) codes to simulate the injector, and the XTR and LAMDA envelope/centroid codes along with LSP to simulate transport of the accelerated beam through the LIAs. The LIA simulations need the injected beam parameters as initial conditions for calculating beam transport and stability. The determination of these initial conditions is the topic of this note.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Correct Initial Conditions for Simulations of Beam Physics in Linear Induction Accelerators

Flash radiography of hydrodynamic experiments driven by high explosives is a well-known diagnostic technique in use at many laboratories. At Los Alamos, the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility two linear induction electron accelerators (LIAs) make the bremsstrahlung radiographic source spots for point projection radiographs from orthogonal views. A new LIA, called Scorpius, is presently under development to advance this technology. To better understand electron-beam physics in these LIAs, numerical simulations are frequently performed with the objective of improving the radiography. At Los Alamos we frequently use the TRAK ray-trace and LSP particle-in-cell (PIC) codes to simulate the injector, and the XTR and LAMDA envelope/centroid codes along with LSP to simulate transport of the accelerated beam through the LIAs. The LIA simulations need the injected beam parameters as initial conditions for calculating beam transport and stability. The determination of these initial conditions is the topic of this note.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Effect of Size on Postrelease Survival of Head-Started Mojave Desert Tortoises

Abstract Captive-rearing conservation programs focus primarily on maximizing postrelease survival. Survival increases with size in a variety of taxa, often leading to the use of enhanced size as a means to minimize postrelease losses. Head-starting is a specific captive-rearing approach used to accelerate growth in captivity prior to release in the wild. We explored the effect of size at release, among other potential factors, on postrelease survival in head-started Mojave desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii. Juvenile tortoises were reared for different durations of captivity (2–7 y) and under varying husbandry protocols, resulting in a wide range of juvenile sizes (68–145 mm midline carapace length) at release. We released all animals (n = 78) in the Mojave National Preserve, California, United States, on 25 September 2018. Release size and surface activity were the only significant predictors of fate during the first year postrelease. Larger sized head-starts had higher predicted survival rates when compared with smaller individuals. This trend was also observed in animals of the same age but reared under different protocols, suggesting that accelerating the growth of head-started tortoises may increase efficiency of head-starting programs without decreasing postrelease success. Excluding five missing animals, released head-starts had 82.2% survival in their first year postrelease (September 2018–September 2019), with all mortalities resulting from predation. No animals with >90-mm midline carapace length were predated by ravens. Our findings suggest the utility of head-starting may be substantially improved by incorporating indoor rearing to accelerate growth. Target release size for head-started chelonians will vary among head-start programs based on release site conditions and project-specific constraints.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and Analyses to Enable Science for the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE)

Coastal cities provide the opportunity to characterize the substantial effects of manmade particles on marine cloud properties and processes. La Jolla lies to the north of San Diego, California, but it is often about a day directly downwind of the major pollution sources located in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The large dynamic range of aerosol particle concentrations combined with the multi-hour to multi-day persistence of stratocumulus cloud layers makes the site ideal for investigating the seasonal changes in cloud and aerosol properties as well as the quantitative relationships between cloud and aerosol properties. The Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) characterized the extent, radiative properties, aerosol interactions, and precipitation characteristics of stratocumulus clouds in the Eastern Pacific across all four seasons at two coastal sites in La Jolla. This project was designed to enhance and expand the scientific uses of the ARM AMF1 measurements from EPCAPE. The goal was to ensure meaningful observations were collected that would enable science. The project included the following objectives: (1) Reviewing the ARM AMF1 measurements [ARM, 2021a; b] and circulating a summary of the measurements each week, (2) Comparing AMF1 measurements to those provided by collaborators (including filter measurements at the pier), (3) Collecting and analyzing filter samples from Scripps Pier by Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), (4) Assisting in operations of instruments provided by Guest PIs when possible, and (5) Providing an initial compilation of EPCAPE aerosol and cloud seasonal differences. The expected outcomes of these objectives were enhanced proposals and publications using EPCAPE measurements by helping to identify instrument issues, expanded data access and awareness by distributing weekly plots and related summaries, improved source-related attribution of aerosols with elemental tracers, additional observations provided by Guest PIs, and accelerated ACI studies enabled by the compiled seasonal summaries of aerosol and cloud properties. Three examples of the science enabled by this project are findings that (i) aerosol and cloud aqueous production contributes more than half of sulfate particle mass concentration, (ii) upwind sources make chemical composition very similar at nearby sites despite local differences in meteorology, and (iii) most of the large mass concentration of semi-volatile organic components is co-emitted and co-evaporated with nitrate. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in coastal regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations. By using the unique ARM suite of cloud radiative products in addition to the measured aerosol properties at a coastal location, we were able to address the more specific question of which aerosol particles cause how much of the effects on clouds. Identifying this signature in coastal areas provides an opportunity to test the representation of aerosol sources by global models in a range of clean and urban-influenced conditions.

Russell, Lynn [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of a PIP-II Era Mu2e Experiment

We propose a design of an upgraded Mu2e experiment for the future Fermilab PIP-II era based on the muon collider front end. The consensus is that such an upgrade should provide a factor of 10 increase in the rate of stopping muons in the experimental target. The current Mu2e design is optimized for 8 kW of protons at 8 GeV. The PIP-II upgrade project is a 250-meter-long CW linac capable of accelerating a 2-mA proton beam to a kinetic energy of 800 MeV (total power 1.6 MW). This would significantly improve the Fermilab proton source to enable next-generation intensity frontier experiments. But using this 800 MeV beam poses challenges to the Mu2E experiment. Bright muon beams generated from sources designed for muon collider and neutrino factory facilities have been shown to generate two orders of magnitude more muons per proton than the current Mu2e production target and solenoid. In contrast to the current Mu2e, the muon collider design has forward-production of muons from the target.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

DOE Laboratory Support for DER and Inverter-Based Resource Integration Standards (ACCEL II) (Final Report)

This report documents efforts under a project that followed work completed under Accelerating Systems Integration Standards (ACCEL). In this continuation, the project team provided support for updates to critical standards for interconnection and interoperability of distributed energy resources at the distribution level. In addition, the project contributed to development of guidance for operational best practices of the bulk power system with high levels of DERs. Additional goals of the project were to inform and develop improved recommended practices and certification standards for end-to-end interoperability of DERs, utilizing Sandia laboratory assets when needed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Guideline for Characterizing and Evaluating a Candidate Project Site for Solar Thermal Applications

This document presents a structured procedure for characterizing and evaluating candidate project sites for concentrating solar power (CSP) and solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) applications. The objective is to provide project developers, researchers, and other stakeholders with a consistent, technology-agnostic framework for early-stage site assessment, enabling informed decision-making prior to significant investment in project development. Site selection is a critical factor in project success or failure for both CSP and SHIP projects. Key factors such as solar resource availability, land characteristics, environmental and regulatory constraints, infrastructure availability, and community context are determined by the choice of project site and can materially impact project performance, cost, schedule, and overall viability. This procedure is designed to systematically evaluate these factors, identify potential fatal flaws, and prioritize the most favorable candidate sites for further development. The process begins with rapid screening-level evaluation, using publicly available data to assess solar resource, land availability and suitability, zoning and land-use compatibility, and exclusion zones such as protected lands or sensitive habitats. Sites that meet the minimum screening criteria advance to a more detailed characterization. Subsequent sections of this report provide guidance for a next-level assessment of the most important technical and environmental parameters, including: 1) Solar resource quality, variability, and uncertainty using multiyear datasets and, where appropriate, on-site measurement campaigns; 2) Meteorological conditions such as wind, temperature, extreme weather events, and soiling impacts; 3) Land characteristics including slope, shading, and geotechnical conditions; and 4) Environmental and regulatory considerations, including permitting processes, endangered species, cultural resources, and visual impacts. The procedure also addresses infrastructure and integration considerations, including: 1) Grid interconnection requirements for CSP power generation projects; 2) Electrical and operational integration for SHIP facilities; 3) Water availability, quality, and permitting constraints, which are particularly critical for CSP in arid regions; and 4) Site access, construction logistics, and availability of workforce and supporting services. Recognizing the importance of social and economic context, the procedure includes evaluation of community engagement factors, such as stakeholder sentiment, proximity to sensitive visual receptors, workforce development opportunities, and local economic incentives. The outputs of these assessments are synthesized in a cost and risk evaluation, translating site characteristics into expected impacts on capital cost, operating cost, schedule, and technical risk. This is complemented by screening-level performance modeling, including 8760 simulations and long-term projections, to quantify expected energy or thermal output, assess variability thereof, and support comparison between candidate sites. Finally, the procedure provides high-level guidance on a structured go/no-go decision framework, categorizing sites based on identified risks and constraints, and outlining a clear path forward to feasibility studies and front-end engineering design for viable projects. By standardizing the site characterization process across both CSP and SHIP applications, this guideline aims to: 1) Improve consistency and transparency in early-stage project evaluation; 2) Reduce development risk and avoid investment in nonviable project sites; 3) Support collaboration between developers, researchers, and public agencies; and 4) Accelerate successful deployment of concentrating solar technologies for both power generation and industrial process heat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Myth of Fungible FTE: A Quantitative Assessment of Matrixed Resource Allocation

Matrix organizations allow scientific facilities to share specialized personnel across projects, operations, maintenance, and strategic initiatives. Nominal staffing allocations, however, may not capture the schedule consequences of fragmented individual commitments, limited access to specialist groups, and intermittent availability of key decision makers. We developed a stochas- tic, daily-time-step simulation of a hypothetical medium-sized accelerator-facility project com- prising sequential phases and parallel tasks. Each task requires role-specific work measured in FTE-days. Ordinary personnel may be unavailable because they contribute concurrently to other institutional activities, while designated key roles have independently specified daily un- availability probabilities. An organization-wide priority factor scales the number of people from each functional group who can effectively contribute to the project. It is interpreted as a composite proxy for project access and workforce fragmentation across competing commit- ments. We examined project completion time as a function of this factor and Project Lead unavailability using 100 Monte Carlo runs per condition. Increasing priority factor from 0.1 to 1.0 reduced median completion time from 1708.5 days (interquartile range 1681.5–1735.25) to 390 days (interquartile range 379–399). At priority factor = 0.1, increasing Project Lead unavailability from 0.5 to 0.9 increased median completion time from 1713.5 days (interquartile range 1691–1733.25) to 4,417 days (interquartile range 4271.75–4550.5). The model quantifies the commonly expected sensitivity of project schedules to fragmented resource commitments and limited coordination availability. Within this model, the results also indicate a possible threshold regime in which small increases in workforce availability yield only modest sched- ule improvements until sufficient capacity becomes accessible, after which project performance improves sharply. With further validation and calibration, this quantitative framework could support resource-allocation decisions during initial project planning and subsequent schedule rebaselining.

Bai, Mei [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SL↗