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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fallowed agricultural lands dominate anthropogenic dust sources in California

Air pollution remains a major problem in many parts of California, significantly impacting public health and regional climate. However, the contribution of anthropogenic dust from agricultural sources, among major pollutants in California’s semi-arid Central Valley, remains largely unclear. Here, we used the Cropland Data Layer from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to identify crop types and land use/cover and leveraged satellite-derived estimates of major dust events between 2008 and 2022 over California. We identified fallowed land—an unplanted agricultural land parcel—as a key anthropogenic dust source in California. Specifically, we find that the Central Valley accounts for about 77% of total fallowed land areas in California, where they are associated with about 88% of major anthropogenic dust events. We also find that the geographic coverage of these fallowed lands expanded between 2008 and 2022 with associated increasing anthropogenic dust activities. Additionally, these anthropogenic dust activities are sensitive to the drought severity over the fallowed lands, with potential cumulative effects on downstream dust burden during prolonged multi-year drought conditions. Overall, our results have important implications for public health, including increased risk for Valley fever and for regional climates, such as increases in extreme precipitation and snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting tropospheric composition and climate responses to US air pollution controls in the context of internally-arising variability

Since the 1970s, air pollutant emissions controls in the United States (US) have lowered concentrations of ozone (O 3 ) and aerosols, which have opposing radiative effects on surface temperature. Using a pair of initial-condition ensembles generated by a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, we simulate the “world avoided” by US air pollution controls. In this counterfactual world, we find tropospheric column O 3 increases, robust to natural internal variability, extending across the Northern Hemisphere. Robust aerosol increases, dominated by sulfate, remain localized near the US. Wintertime Northwest Atlantic cloud droplet number concentration is particularly sensitive to US aerosol. While an ensemble mean US surface cooling signal (−0.4 °C) implies that aerosol-driven cooling prevails over any O 3 -induced warming, we find that large regional internal variability will confound its detection in any single transient realization. Larger signal-to-noise ratios for composition versus climate variables underscore the greater detectability of emissions-driven changes in tropospheric composition compared to their associated climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An improved ten-moment closure for reconnection and instabilities

The integration of kinetic effects in fluid models is important for global simulations of Earth's magnetosphere. The use of the two-fluid ten-moment model, which includes the pressure tensor for both species, has had some success in simulating Ganymede and Mercury with a simple closure model. Here, we discuss a heat flux closure which accounts for some limitations of the earlier work while remaining computationally tractable. Comparisons with kinetic simulations for magnetic reconnection and lower-hybrid drift instabilities show good agreement with kinetic results and improvements on previous closure models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Block encoding of the three-dimensional heterogeneous Poisson equation with application to fracture flow

Quantum linear system (QLS) algorithms offer the potential to solve large-scale linear systems exponentially faster than classical methods. However, applying QLS algorithms to real-world problems remains challenging due to issues such as state preparation, data loading, and efficient information extraction. In this work, we study the feasibility of applying QLS algorithms to solve discretized three-dimensional (3D) heterogeneous Poisson equations, with specific examples relating to groundwater flow through geologic fracture networks. We explicitly construct a block encoding for the 3D heterogeneous Poisson matrix by leveraging the sparse local structure of the discretized operator. While classical solvers benefit from preconditioning, we show that block encoding the system matrix and preconditioner separately does not improve the effective condition number that dominates the QLS run-time. This differs from classical approaches where the preconditioner and the system matrix can often be implemented independently. Nevertheless, due to the structure of the problem in three dimensions, the quantum algorithm achieves a run-time of 𝑂⁡(𝑁 2/3 polylog 𝑁 ⋅log (1/𝜖)), outperforming the best classical methods (with run times of 𝑂⁡(𝑁⁢log 𝑁 ⋅log (1/𝜖))) and offering exponential memory savings. These results highlight both the promise and limitations of QLS algorithms for practical scientific computing, and point to effective condition-number reduction as a key barrier in achieving quantum advantages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Unstable Invasion of Sedimenting Granular Suspensions

Here we investigate the development of mobility inversion and fingering when a granular suspension is injected radially between horizontal parallel plates of a cell filled with a miscible fluid. While the suspension spreads uniformly when the suspension and the displaced fluid densities are exactly matched, even a small density difference is found to result in a dense granular front which develops fingers with angular spacing that increase with granular volume fraction and decrease with injection rate. We show that the timescale over which the instability develops is given by the volume fraction dependent settling timescale of the grains in the cell. We then show that the mobility inversion and the nonequilibrium Korteweg surface tension due to granular volume fraction gradients determine the number of fingers at the onset of the instability in these miscible suspensions.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hacking Kilometer-Scale Models: A Participative Model for Climate Information

In May 2025, nearly 700 participants from all around the world coalesced at 10 regional nodes and a few satellite nodes to take part in a global hackathon of kilometer-scale (horizontal grid spacing < 10 km) regional and global Earth system models. Exciting science is emerging from these efforts, ranging across novel model analysis, new ways of integrating with satellite data, and emulation with machine learning. New technologies were trialed that enable the community to work in new and complementary ways to democratize access to global information at a local scale from a set of the world’s highest-resolution climate models. The hackathon demonstrated how exascale data can be organized to be accessible to anyone. Fundamentally, the community could apply these techniques and technologies to move toward more participative models for coproduction and delivery of diverse sources of climate information for climate scientists and citizens alike.

Climate models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) will require expeditious response for model analyses designed to inform and drive integrated Earth system assessments. To meet this challenge, the Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF), a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of ESMs, was designed and developed. The initial implementation of the REF, constructed to meet the near-term needs of the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track, builds upon four disparate community evaluation and benchmarking tools that are coupled together using the Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC) framework. The REF runs within a containerized workflow for portability and reproducibility and is aimed at generating and organizing diagnostics covering a variety of model variables. The REF leverages well documented observational datasets to provide assessments of model fidelity across a collection of diagnostics. All diagnostics were identified and selected with community involvement and consultation. Operational integration with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) will permit automated execution of the REF for selected diagnostics as soon as model output data are published on ESGF by the originating modeling centers. The REF is designed to be portable across a range of current computational platforms to facilitate use by modeling centers for assessing the evolution of model versions or gauging the relative performance of CMIP simulations before being published on ESGF. When integrated into production simulation workflows, results from the REF provide immediate quantitative feedback that allows model developers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues. After the REF is released to the community, its subsequent development and support will be prioritized by an international consortium of scientists and engineers, enabling a broader impact across Earth science disciplines. For instance, the REF will facilitate improvements to models and will enhance confidence in model projections through process-based selection of models based on their performance with respect to observations. Production of reproducible diagnostics and community-based assessments are key features of the REF. Furthermore, providing interoperability with existing evaluation packages assures that contributions from previous community efforts will be available for use in future model intercomparison projects.

Hoffman, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000158024134)↗
NASA NTRS2017

JIGSAW-GEO (1.0): Locally Orthogonal Staggered Unstructured Grid Generation for General Circulation Modelling on the Sphere

An algorithm for the generation of non-uniform, locally orthogonal staggered unstructured spheroidal grids is described. This technique is designed to generate very high-quality staggered VoronoiDelaunay meshes appropriate for general circulation modelling on the sphere, including applications to atmospheric simulation, ocean-modelling and numerical weather prediction. Using a recently developed Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique, a method for the construction of high-quality unstructured spheroidal Delaunay triangulations is introduced. A locally orthogonal polygonal grid, derived from the associated Voronoi diagram, is computed as the staggered dual. It is shown that use of the Frontal-Delaunay refinement technique allows for the generation of very high-quality unstructured triangulations, satisfying a priori bounds on element size and shape. Grid quality is further improved through the application of hill-climbing-type optimisation techniques. Overall, the algorithm is shown to produce grids with very high element quality and smooth grading characteristics, while imposing relatively low computational expense. A selection of uniform and non-uniform spheroidal grids appropriate for high-resolution, multi-scale general circulation modelling are presented. These grids are shown to satisfy the geometric constraints associated with contemporary unstructured C-grid-type finite-volume models, including the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-O). The use of user-defined mesh-spacing functions to generate smoothly graded, non-uniform grids for multi-resolution-type studies is discussed in detail.

geophysical fluid dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1984

Alternative experiments using the geophysical fluid flow cell

This study addresses the possibility of doing large scale dynamics experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell. In particular, cases where the forcing generates a statically stable stratification almost everywhere in the spherical shell are evaluated. This situation is typical of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans. By calculating the strongest meridional circulation expected in the spacelab experiments, and testing its stability using quasi-geostrophic stability theory, it is shown that strongly nonlinear baroclinic waves on a zonally symmetric modified thermal wind will not occur. The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell does not have a deep enough fluid layer to permit useful studies of large scale planetary wave processes arising from instability. It is argued, however, that by introducing suitable meridional barriers, a significant contribution to the understanding of the oceanic thermocline problem could be made.

Hart, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Basic studies of baroclinic flows

A fully nonlinear 3-dimensional numerical model (GEOSIM), previously developed and validated for several cases of geophysical fluid flow, has been used to investigate the dynamical behavior of laboratory experiments of fluid flows similar to those of the Earth's atmosphere. The phenomena investigated are amplitude vacillation, and the response of the fluid system to uneven heating and cooling. The previous year's work included hysteresis in the transition between axisymmetric and wave flow. Investigation is also continuing of the flows in the Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell (GFFC), a low-gravity Spacelab experiment. Much of the effort in the past year has been spent in validation of the model under a wide range of external parameters including nonlinear flow regimes. With the implementation of a 3-dimensional upwind differencing scheme, higher spectral resolution, and a shorter time step, the model has been found capable of predicting the majority of flow regimes observed in one complete series of baroclinic annulus experiments of Pfeffer and co-workers. Detailed analysis of amplitude vacillation has revealed that the phase splitting described in the laboratory experiments occurs in some but not all cases. Through the use of animation of the models output, a vivid 3-dimensional view of the phase splitting was shown to the audience of the Southeastern Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Conference in March of this year. A study on interannual variability was made using GEOSIM with periodic variations in the thermal forcing. Thus far, the model has not predicted a chaotic behavior as observed in the experiments, although there is a sensitivity in the wavenumber selection to the initial conditions. Work on this subject, and on annulus experiments with non-axisymmetric thermal heating, will continue. The comparison of GEOSIM's predictions will result from the Spacelab 3 GFFC experiments continued over the past year, on a 'back-burner' basis. At this point, the study (in the form of a draft of a journal article) is nearly completed. The results from GEOSIM compared very well with the experiments, and the use of the model allows the demonstration of flow mechanics that were not possible with the experimental data. For example, animation of the model output shows that the forking of the spiral bands is a transient phenomenon, due to the differential east-west propagation of convection bands from different latitudes.

Miller, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Current Results and Proposed Activities in Microgravity Fluid Dynamics

The Institute for Problems in Mechanics' Laboratory work in mathematical and physical modelling of fluid mechanics develops models, methods, and software for analysis of fluid flow, instability analysis, direct numerical modelling and semi-empirical models of turbulence, as well as experimental research and verification of these models and their applications in technological fluid dynamics, microgravity fluid mechanics, geophysics, and a number of engineering problems. This paper presents an overview of the results in microgravity fluid dynamics research during the last two years. Nonlinear problems of weakly compressible and compressible fluid flows are discussed.

Polezhaev, V. I.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perfectly Matched Layers and Characteristic Boundaries in Lattice Boltzmann: Accuracy vs Cost

Artificial boundary conditions (BCs) play a ubiquitous role in numerical simulations of transport phenomena in several diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics, electromagnetism, acoustics, geophysics, and many more. They are essential for accurately capturing the behavior of physical systems whenever the simulation domain is truncated for computational efficiency purposes. Ideally, an artificial BC would allow relevant information to enter or leave the computational domain without introducing artifacts or unphysical effects. Boundary conditions designed to control spurious wave reflections are referred to as nonreflective boundary conditions (NRBCs). Another approach is given by the perfectly matched layers (PMLs), in which the computational domain is extended with multiple dampening layers, where outgoing waves are absorbed exponentially in time. Here, in this work, the definition of PML is revised in the context of the lattice Boltzmann method. The impact of adopting different types of BCs at the edge of the dampening zone is evaluated and compared, in terms of both accuracy and computational costs. It is shown that for sufficiently large buffer zones, PMLs allow stable and accurate simulations even when using a simple zeroth-order extrapolation BC. Moreover, employing PMLs in combination with NRBCs potentially offers significant gains in accuracy at a modest computational overhead, provided the parameters of the BC are properly tuned to match the properties of the underlying fluid flow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗