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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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3,240 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2026

Surprisingly Enriched CO and CH4 in Halley-type Comet 13P/Olbers: Clues to Its Interstellar Heritage

The native ice composition of Halley-type Comet 13P/Olbers (hereafter 13P) was measured post-perihelion, on UT 2024 August 16 using iSHELL, the 1–5 μm cross-dispersed, high-resolution facility spectrograph at the NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility. At that time, the heliocentric distance (Rh) of 13P was 1.37 au and the geocentric distance (Δ) was 1.99 au. Using a slit that delivered spectral resolving power RP λ/Δλ 4.5 × 104, two instrument settings targeted rovibrational emissions of seven parent molecules released into the coma through sublimation of ices in the nucleus. These settings provided broad and contiguous or nearly contiguous spectral coverage, one simultaneously measuring H2O, CO, and OCS, and the other simultaneously measuring CH4, C2H6, CH3OH, and H2CO. Meaningful abundances were obtained for all seven species. Our study revealed substantial enrichments of CO and CH4, the two most volatile species systematically targeted at IR wavelengths in comets. Relative to their respective mean abundance ratios among measured comets from the Oort cloud reservoir, CO in 13P was enriched by a factor of about six and CH4 was enriched by a factor of about three. Together with near-average abundances measured for CH3OH and C2H6, this suggests large endowments of CO and CH4 on interstellar grains, yet it could indicate inhibited surface chemistry on the pre-cometary grains subsequently contained in the nucleus or 13P. Assuming that this represents the primordial composition of 13P, it could reflect very low temperatures in its natal environment (∼10 K or lower).

Michael A Disanti↗
DOE OSTI2024

Λ polarization from vortex rings as the medium response for jet thermalization

We performed a systematic study on the formation of vorticity rings as the process for jet thermalization in the medium created in high-energy nuclear collisions. In this work, we expanded our previous analysis to a more realistic framework by considering noncentral events and fluctuations in the initial condition. We simulate the formation and evolution of the flow vortex structure in a relativistic viscous hydrodynamic model and study the sensitivity of the proposed “ring observable” (ℛ$^{𝑡}_{Λ}$) that can be measured experimentally through the polarization of Λ hyperons. We show that this observable is robust with respect to fluctuating initial conditions to capture the jet-induced vortex flow signal and further study its dependence on different model parameters, such as the jet's velocity, position, the fluid's shear viscosity, and the collision centrality. The proposed observable is associated with the formation of vorticity in a quark-gluon plasma, showing that the measurement of particle polarization can be a powerful tool to probe different properties of jet-medium interactions and to understand better the polarization induced by the transverse and longitudinal expansions of the medium.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2027

A multi-region approach for the analysis of porous materials and gas-solid reactions using USAXS-SAXS-WAXS: application to CaO carbonation

The reaction rate of gas-solid non-catalytic reactions is typically investigated using reactant conversion data over time and ex-situ measurements of the porous solid reactant textural properties; these data enable the experimental estimation of the initial intrinsic reaction rate, whereas the evolution of the textural properties and the reaction rate over time are evaluated theoretically using reaction models. In this work, a different methodology is presented, based on: a) in-situ time-resolved USAXS-SAXS-WAXS measurements of the solid sample, and b) a multi-region modeling approach; this methodology allows for the estimation of the textural properties and the intrinsic reaction rate at any time during the reaction. Referring to a reaction in which a solid product is obtained from a solid reactant and a gaseous reactant, the porous particle is described as consisting of several distinct regions with different microstructural properties, and both a gas-solid reaction model and a SAXS model are derived and applied to the carbonation of porous CaO. The proposed reaction model highlights the role of the inaccessible reactant and accurately predicts the solid reactant conversion versus time profile. The SAXS model accurately predicts the measured linear trends of the Porod invariant and of the pre-factor of the power law scattering profile versus CaO mass fraction; in the absence of chemical reactions, the proposed equations extend classical SAXS theory to porous materials containing macropores and nonporous solid phases in addition to standard nanoscale inhomogeneous regions.

CO2 solid sorbents↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Unified Beam-Dynamics and Hardware Design Framework for Hybrid Nonlinear-Kicker Injection in NSLS-II

Nonlinear kickers (NLKs) enable off-axis injection in ultralow-emittance storage rings by providing a strong kick to the injected beam while remaining nearly transparent to the stored beam. In hybrid schemes, a conventional four-kicker bump defines the injected trajectory, and the NLK reduces the first-turn action under constrained beam offset and optics conditions. Effective operation additionally requires stable and reproducible first-turn injection trajectories. We develop a compact action–angle framework that expresses NLK dynamics in terms of Courant–Snyder invariants and yields an analytical bound on achievable action reduction. This formulation provides direct design rules for NLK placement, phase advance, injected-beam offset, and kicker field profile. Within this framework, we identify the 8-wire NLK as a practical baseline and extend its design by relaxing the square-geometry constraint, enabling inward shifting of the off-axis field peak while preserving on-axis field and gradient cancellation. Application to the NSLS-II lattice shows how aperture, pulsed-power, and mechanical constraints combine to determine a coupled design solution. Multi-turn tracking confirms that candidate NLK locations maintain sufficient stay-clear (aperture-clearance) margin, while the optimized wire geometry reduces the required current and Lorentz force load. The results establish a unified approach for NLK-assisted injection design and provide a practical pathway for upgrades in diffraction-limited storage rings.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

User-Centric Communication With Aerial Network for 6G: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Meeting the diverse needs of user verticals requires innovative cellular architectures that can offer additional degrees of freedom to provide on-demand services. The terrestrial user-centric radio access network (UC-RAN) stands out as an excellent choice for this purpose. However, a drawback of UC-RAN is its tendency to prioritize high-priority verticals, often resulting in a subpar quality of experience for low-priority verticals. This issue is particularly exacerbated in hotspot areas. Here, to address this problem, we introduce an aerial network integrated with terrestrial UC-RAN to provide coverage to users which are not served by the terrestrial network. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of key configuration and optimization parameters (COPs), such as location, transmit power, altitude, and beamwidth of aerial base stations (ABSs) on system key performance indicators (KPIs), such as coverage, latency satisfaction, average spectral efficiency, and energy efficiency. We formulate a robust multiobjective function to maximize these KPIs without biasing toward any specific KPI(s). Finally, we propose a deep reinforcement learning optimization framework based on the state-of-the-art soft actor-critic algorithm to control ABS COPs and optimize system KPIs. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed optimization framework can converge to near-optimal solutions derived from the pseudo brute force in a few thousand epochs.

6G↗
NASA NTRS2024

Performance of Two Battery Prognostic Applications used by Two Octocopters for Safe Low Altitude Autonomous Flight Operations

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of the remaining available flying time for two different electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (eUAVs) powered by lithium-ion-polymer batteries. Flight tests for various automation research missions for the two vehicles were monitored using two on-board battery health management applications to make predictions of the remaining flying time (RFT) for each eUAV and to predict the state of the battery. Playback of the voltage, current and temperature profiles of the battery discharge were used to assess the accuracy of the estimation of the voltage and the charge states of the models as well as the estimate of the RFT. The reference ground truth values were the observed landing time and the measured battery pack resting pack voltage 20 minutes after the flight. The predicted RFT, state of charge (SoC), and state of energy (SoE) were compared with the observed results. Noise values of one standard deviation from the mean values of the internal charge states of the battery model during a reference run were used to vary the states during simulation. One application used an equivalent circuit model of the electrical dynamics of the battery pack, and the other application used a reduced-order electrochemistry model. The variation of the model state components was compared to the variation in the estimate of the RFT and the variation in the SoE to estimate a confidence factor. Variation in the estimates caused by factors affecting the off-line laboratory parameter identification experiments is considered. Variation in the estimates due to environmental factors are discussed.

Assurance↗
NASA NTRS2017

Novel Polyimide Battery Separator Imbibed with Room-Temperature Ionic Liquids

The journey to Mars will require advancements in many existing technologies, including space power and energy storage systems. According to the 2015 NASA Technology Roadmaps, energy storage is a critical technology area to develop for both terrestrial as well as future long-term space missions. Currently, batteries represent one of the major areas in need of advancement, both in terms of energy density as well as safety. Recently, concerns regarding the fire safety of commercial lithium-ion batteries have prompted efforts to produce nonflammable battery components, namely the electrolyte and separator. Commercial lithium-ion batteries utilize polyolefin separators imbibed with a lithium salt dissolved in cyclic carbonates. This separator/electrolyte combination imparts good ionic conductivities in the range of 10(exp -2) to 10(exp -3) S/cm. However, the cyclic carbonates and polyolefin separator are inherently flammable. Room-temperature ionic liquids (RTILs) appear to be a safer alternative to cyclic carbonates. They offer good ionic conductivities, similar to those observed in cyclic carbonates, but are inherently nonvolatile and nonflammable giving them a safety advantage. Many promising RTILs for battery electrolytes are not compatible with commercial polyolefin separator materials. Polyimide aerogels possess an open-porous, fibrillar network architecture which offers a high degree of porosity (typically greater than 85 porous), required for lithium ion conduction, as well as good mechanical properties. Furthermore, these materials are compatible with all tested RTILs. By creating a polyimide gel and imbibing the gel with a RTIL containing a lithium salt instead of super critically drying them to form aerogels, a nonflammable separator/electrolyte system with conductivities in the range of 1x10(exp -3) S/cm has been demonstrated.

Polyimide↗
NASA NTRS2026

The Operational NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer and Exploration Follow-Ons

The NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer (AGA) is the culmination of nearly ten years of advancement of core technology originally developed by Vista Photonics through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and expanded using NASA program funding. The AGA is a portable, battery operated, optical gas detection instrument for continuous monitoring of H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 , CO, NH 3 , HCN, HF, HCl in the spacecraft environment. Real time, in-situ monitored, gas concentrations are communicated at 1 Hz through a built-in display on-orbit and additionally through a serial interface on the ground. The instruments function over the typical range of temperatures and pressures required for the spacecraft environment. A ten-year operational life is targeted. Seven AGA instruments are currently deployed on the International Space Station and two Orion-specific units are manifested for Artemis 2. A variation of the operational AGA is under development for lunar Human Landing Systems. A wider calibrated operating pressure envelope is required in this application. Otherwise, the instruments straightforwardly address lessons learned from the original AGA by improving aspects of thermal control, ruggedness, and ease-of-use. A subset of AGA-developed sensed gases (H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 ) is the subject of the Primary Constituent Monitor (PCM) development for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) destined for lunar orbit. Two PCMs will be installed in HALO as part of the environmental control loop where they will interface with vehicle power and communications. While the basic sensor techniques are unchanged from the AGA, these instruments have been radiation hardened to survive for many years in the harsh target environment. Current development status for these instruments will be presented along with recent developments of a naval submarine variant.

ECLSS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure prediction for Ti-22Al-25Nb in laser powder bed fusion

This work presents a physics-informed framework for predicting solidification morphology and defect susceptibility in additively manufactured Ti–22Al–25Nb across a broad processing space. The framework integrates solidification microstructure selection (SMS) analysis with a single-track defect-based printability map to establish a unified methodology linking processing parameters to both interfacial morphology and manufacturability. Thermal gradients G and solidification rates R are first computed using the Thermo-Calc Additive Manufacturing (TC-AM) module, a finite-interface-dissipation (FID) phase-field (PF) model coupled with CALPHAD method is then employed to systematically distinguish planar and dendritic regimes as functions of $G$ and $R$. By superimposing the printability map onto the morphology projections, a comprehensive process–structure framework is obtained. Across most processing conditions, the predicted microstructure is predominantly dendritic, while planar growth emerges only under selected laser power $P$ and scan speed $v$ combinations. In addition to morphology classification, the framework quantifies the dendritic area fraction and introduces a width-based morphology descriptor to characterize the spatial extent of planar/dendritic regions within the melt pool. It provides mechanistic insight into the interplay between solidification physics and defect formation, offering practical guidance for parameter selection and microstructural control in Ti–22Al–25Nb additive manufacturing (AM).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spectroscopic Demarcation of Emergent Photons and Spinons in a Dipolar-Octupolar Quantum Spin Liquid

The identification of fractionalized excitations in quantum spin liquids (QSLs) remains a central challenge in condensed matter physics. In dipolar-octupolar (DO) pyrochlores, such as Ce 2⁢ Zr 2 ⁢O 7 , the candidate 𝜋-flux quantum spin ice (QSI) state is predicted to host both gapless emergent photons and a continuum of spinons. However, resolving these modes at zero field is complicated by their spectral overlap and the presence of nonmagnetic scattering near zero energy. Here, in this study, we report neutron scattering experiments on Ce 2 ⁢Zr 2 ⁢O 7 under a magnetic field along the [1, 1, 1] direction. In contrast to previous unpolarized studies at zero field that relied on high-temperature subtraction, we use a same-temperature high-field subtraction protocol to isolate the photon and spinon modes. Leveraging the selective coupling of the magnetic field to the dipolar degrees of freedom, we demonstrate the spectroscopic demarcation of these excitations. We observe that weak fields (≈ 0.15 T) suppress the low-energy photon weight while leaving the high-energy spinon continuum robust, albeit hardened. Our results, supported by gauge mean-field theory and exact diagonalization calculations, provide strong evidence for the 𝜋-flux QSI state and introduce a powerful field-tuning protocol for investigating DO-QSLs.

Gao, Bin [Rice University, Houston, TX (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2026

In Situ UV–vis Quantification of Chlorobasicity in Binary Molten Chlorides

Optical basicity measurements provide a basis for determining the relative chlorobasicity of a given molten salt composition. This study uses Bi3+ as a spectroscopic probe to investigate optical basicity across three binary molten chloride systems (LiCl-KCl, MgCl2–KCl, and ZnCl2–KCl) through in situ UV–vis spectroscopy measurements of the 1S0→3P1 transition. LiCl-KCl systems exhibit the highest optical basicity with minimal compositional dependence, while both divalent systems show stronger, yet nonlinear, dependence that is reminiscent of acid–base titration curves. The influence of cation electronegativity and polarizing power (Li+ < Mg2+ < Zn2+) directly reflects the basicity curves, with ZnCl2–KCl displaying the steepest gradients and lowest basicity values. Nonlinear dependencies in divalent systems indicate formation of chloride-bridged network structures with coordination states dictated by the amount of KCl in a salt composition, which was further investigated and validated by molecular dynamics simulations of polymeric structures formed in ZnCl2 and MgCl2-based salts using machine learning force fields. The temperature dependence of chlorobasicity in terms of optical basicity was investigated, and a loose, positive correlation between the two was revealed. These findings establish Bi3+ as a sensitive probe for understanding electronic environments in molten chloride systems and provide insights for predicting the chemical behavior of molten salts for use in high-temperature environments.

Buttice, Kailee [Department of Nuclear Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dressed-State Hamiltonian Engineering in a Strongly Interacting Solid-State Spin Ensemble

In quantum science applications, ranging from many-body physics to quantum metrology, dipolar interactions in spin ensembles are often controlled via Floquet engineering. However, this technique typically reduces the interaction strength between spins and effectively weakens the coupling to a target sensing field, limiting the metrological sensitivity. In this Letter, we develop and demonstrate an alternative method that directly tunes the native dipolar interaction in an ensemble of nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in diamond, thereby overcoming these limitations inherent to Floquet engineering. Our approach utilizes dressed-state qubit encoding under a bias magnetic field applied perpendicular to the crystal lattice orientation. This method leads to a 3.2× enhancement of the dimensionless coherence parameter JT 2 compared to state-of-the-art Floquet engineering and a 2.6× (8.3 dB) enhanced sensitivity in ac magnetometry. Furthermore, our results provide a powerful Hamiltonian engineering tool for future studies with NV ensembles and other interacting higher-spin (S > $\frac{1}{2}$) systems.

Quantum control↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Protection Scheme for Unbalanced Faults in Inverter Dominated Networks: A Computationally Efficient Algorithm for Entry-Level Relays

Microgrids are now a common practice in distribution systems to increase resilience and reliability. However, microgrid protection remains a critical challenge, considering its requirement to operate in both grid connected and islanded, and the variability in fault characteristics under each mode of operation. This paper presents unbalanced power (S unb ) based fault detection algorithm, which considers local voltage and current unbalances to determine faults in the system. S unb is a computationally efficient fault detection algorithm that is suitable for implementation in the programmable logic of entry level protective relays. In addition, the difference in current and voltage unbalance (D n ) is used to determine the fault type. The proposed method demonstrates high sensitivity and selectivity for line-to-ground (LG), line-to-line (LL), and double line-to-ground (LLG) faults, representing the most common faults in distribution systems. It also allows relay coordination with upstream and downstream protection devices in both island and grid connected operation, while preserving grading margins. The same pickup and time multiplier settings of a particular relay for both modes of operation eliminates the need for adaptive settings, which rely on communication networks. Validation was performed with a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) setup using Typhoon HIL real time simulator interfaced with three entry-level, SEL 751 relays. Results confirmed the algorithm’s ability to discriminate fault conditions, and determine the fault type under both operating modes, maintain fast detection times, and ensure proper protection coordination.

fault classification↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence↗
NASA NTRS2026

The Operational NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer and Exploration Follow-Ons

The NASA Anomaly Gas Analyzer (AGA) is the culmination of nearly ten years of advancement of core technology originally developed by Vista Photonics through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program and expanded using NASA program funding. The AGA is a portable, battery operated, optical gas detection instrument for continuous monitoring of H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 , CO, NH 3 , HCN, HF, HCl in the spacecraft environment. Real time, in-situ monitored, gas concentrations are communicated at 1 Hz through a built-in display on-orbit and additionally through a serial interface on the ground. The instruments function over the typical range of temperatures and pressures required for the spacecraft environment. A ten-year operational life is targeted. Seven AGA instruments are currently deployed on the International Space Station and two Orion-specific units are manifested for Artemis 2. A variation of the operational AGA is under development for lunar Human Landing Systems. A wider calibrated operating pressure envelope is required in this application. Otherwise, the instruments straightforwardly address lessons learned from the original AGA by improving aspects of thermal control, ruggedness, and ease-of-use. A subset of AGA-developed sensed gases (H 2 O, CO 2 , O 2 ) is the subject of the Primary Constituent Monitor (PCM) development for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) destined for lunar orbit. Two PCMs will be installed in HALO as part of the environmental control loop where they will interface with vehicle power and communications. While the basic sensor techniques are unchanged from the AGA, these instruments have been radiation hardened to survive for many years in the harsh target environment. Current development status for these instruments will be presented along with recent developments of a naval submarine variant.

Air Monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Quantitative Phase Analysis by Neutron Diffraction of Conventional and Advanced Aluminum Alloys Thermally Conditioned for Elevated-Temperature Applications

As the issue of climate change becomes more prevalent, engineers have focused on developing lightweight Al alloys capable of increasing the power density of powertrains. The characterization of these alloys has been focused on mechanical properties and less on the fundamental response of microstructures to achieve these properties. Therefore, this study assesses the quality of the microstructure of two high-temperature Al alloys (A356 + 3.5RE and Al-8Ce-10Mg), comparing them to T6 A356. These alloys underwent thermal conditioning at 250 and 300 °C for 200 h. Time-of-flight neutron diffraction experiments were performed before and after conditioning. The phase evolution was quantified using Rietveld refinement. It was found that the Si phase grows significantly (13–24%) in T6 A356, A356 + 3.5RE, and T6 A356 + 3.5RE alloys, which is typically correlated with a reduction in mechanical properties. Subjecting the A356 3.5RE alloy to a T6 heat treatment stabilizes the orthorhombic Al4Ce3Si6 and monoclinic β-Al5FeSi phases, making them resistant to thermal conditioning. These two phases are known for enhancing mechanical properties. Additionally, the T6 treatment reduced the vol.% of the cubic Al20CeTi2 and hexagonal ᴨ-Al9FeSi3Mg5 phases by 13% and 23%, respectively. These phases have detrimental mechanical properties. The Al-8Ce-10Mg alloy cubic β-Al3Mg2 phase showed significant growth (82–101%) in response to conditioning, while the orthorhombic Al11Ce3 phase remained stable. The growth of the beta phase is known to decrease the mechanical properties of this alloy. These efforts give valuable insight into how these alloys will perform and evolve in demanding high-temperature environments.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Joint scheduling of energy, fast and primary frequency response reserves in integrated transmission–distribution networks

Inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to distribution networks (DNs) can provide fast frequency support, but their reserve deliverability depends on feeder constraints and differs from synchronous primary frequency response (PFR). Existing transmission–distribution coordination studies usually treat reserve generically or neglect feeder-level feasibility, while frequency-security scheduling studies rarely represent distribution feeders explicitly. This paper develops a bi-level day-ahead scheduling framework for integrated transmission–distribution networks that jointly clears energy, transmission-side PFR, and distribution-side fast frequency response (FFR) under exogenous hourly inertia and largest-loss inputs from an external unit commitment (UC) schedule. The transmission problem is modeled with DC-optimal power flow (OPF) and closed-form second-order cone (SOC) frequency-security constraints, whereas each DN is represented by a reserve-aware branch-flow AC-OPF so that scheduled fast reserves remain deliverable during activation. The bi-level problem is reformulated through Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions into a mixed-integer SOC program, and a penalty term is used to tighten the distribution-network relaxation. In the reduced test system, lower exogenous inertia increased the required primary response from 179.64 MW to 191.08 MW, distribution-side fast response reduced total frequency-response procurement by up to 4.9%, and neglecting distribution constraints overstated the combined distribution-side energy and reserve award by up to 18%. In the expanded study, the largest case was solved in 2.02 s with a 0.00% optimality gap. Time-domain simulations kept the frequency nadir above 59.0 Hz in all tested hours. These results demonstrate the value of fast-response modeling and distribution-feasible reserve delivery in coordinated market clearing.

Noh, Seung-Gil↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗