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Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies.

Ericson, Sean [National Renewable Energy Laborator

Electron Inversion and Tunneling at Silicon Thermal Oxide Interfaces for Solar-Driven Molecular Catalysis to Syngas

Semiconductor photoelectrodes are regularly coupled to solid-state heterogeneous catalysts to perform solar-driven reduction of CO 2 . Less frequently, molecular catalysts are employed to better control the reactivity toward desired products, yet the development of robust semiconductor/molecule interfaces has proven challenging. Here, we demonstrate that a 2–3 nm thermal oxide layer on Si exhibits stability in aqueous solution, high photovoltage, and a photocurrent density of ∼10 mA/cm 2 for the solar-driven photoelectrochemical reduction of a homogeneous molecular catalyst, producing syngas with an ∼2:1 H 2 to CO ratio. Because of a low defect density, the oxide interface forms an electron inversion layer with metal-like electron density at cathodic potentials. This inversion layer facilitates electron transfer to redox-active molecules via tunneling even if the molecule’s reduction potential is beyond the semiconductor’s conduction band edge. Using an electrolyte solution composed of a homogeneous cobalt bis(terpyridine) catalyst in a water/organic solvent mixture, stable photoelectrochemistry was observed under 1-sun illumination, exhibiting an ∼30% Faradaic efficiency for CO that was similar to a glassy carbon electrode under comparable conditions. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that an ultrathin thermal oxide interface is a robust platform for development of aqueous-stable, molecule-driven photoelectrocatalysis.

Catalysts

India Power Sector Reliability Analysis [Slides]

The objective of the study is to assess pathways for India to achieve its 2070 power sector goals reliably and cost-effectively by considering various supply- and demand-side factors to support planning by national stakeholders including the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

08 HYDROGEN

Integrating AI Data Centers with the Power Grid

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) has triggered an unprecedented surge in electricity demand, with US data center energy use projected to double or triple 2023 levels by 2028. This exponential growth places strain on grid infrastructure, which can hinder timely construction of desired computing capacity. To bridge this supply-demand gap, utilities and AI developers are increasingly turning to demand flexibility, a strategy that incentivizes shifting or reducing power use during peak periods of grid stress. Data centers are uniquely equipped for flexible operations due to their digital workloads, built-in redundancy, and onsite energy assets. This article outlines four primary mechanisms to enable data center flexibility: computational load flexibility (shifting tasks temporally or geographically), flexible use of core facility infrastructure adjustments, energy storage utilization, and onsite electricity generation. To encourage adoption, utilities are deploying new tariff designs, including voluntary interruptible service riders, mandated flexibility requirements, and streamlined interconnection processes for flexible loads. For the highly capitalized and rapidly growing AI industry, the primary motivators for embracing these strategies are expediting facility interconnection, satisfying emerging regulatory mandates, and mitigating community resistance. While demand flexibility cannot substitute the long-term need for new bulk power generation, it serves as an essential, immediate solution for enabling near-term deployment. By transforming data centers from grid stressors into stabilizing assets, flexible operations can ensure reliable grid integration, ease market pressures, and support a resilient power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Tokamak Energy’s pre-concept design for a fusion power plant: an overview of ST-E1

Climate change and rapidly rising energy demand, driven in part by artificial intelligence and data-centre growth, create an urgent need for stable, low-carbon, and abundant power. Fusion is a promising long-term solution, yet its commercialisation faces a fundamental paradox in today’s investment environment: pilot plants are essential to de-risk physics, engineering, and operations, but their limited lifetime energy output and high upfront costs make them difficult to finance. This paper presents Tokamak Energy’s response: ST-E1, a pre-concept design for a low-aspect-ratio tokamak power plant engineered specifically to overcome this challenge. ST-E1 is designed from the outset for phased operation—pilot and commercial phases, with an upgrade phase in between—with emphasis on commercial viability, maintainability, nuclear engineering, modularity, and upgradability. A key design principle is the deliberate separation of long-lived assets, such as the magnet cage and vacuum vessel, from replaceable in-vessel systems. This provides an attractive and credible investment approach to generate operational data and de-risk key technologies while preserving most capital-intensive assets for later commercial phases. The architecture supports continuous optimisation toward high net electric power (targeting 800–1000 MW net electric), a normalised capital expenditure of $\$$ 12–14k/kW of net electric power, and high availability (targeting > 80%). A tokamak core with a 5 m major radius, aspect ratio of 2.3, and on-plasma axis toroidal field of 5.25 T was selected to meet these objectives. This paper summarises the ST-E1 design philosophy, principal features, and development methodology. It introduces a Focus Collection of 11 papers detailing the pre-concept design of the entire tokamak and corresponding plant.

ST-E1

How Distributed Energy Resources Can Support Resilience in Utility Distribution Networks

The goal of this webinar is to engage with electric utilities in the Midwest, particularly small public utilities, to understand the industry's needs for science tools to plan for winter resilience in the future, designing tools that will benefit electric power resilience in all communities. Michigan Tech leads this project with partners from multiple academic, government, and industry groups and asked NLR to present on DERs and laboratory tools and resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Domestically Manufactured Fuel Cells for Heavy Duty Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy under Award DE-EE0009248, advances the domestic development of fuel-cell stack technologies for heavy-duty transportation applications. The work directly supports the Million-Mile Fuel Cell Truck (M2FCT) initiative by improving performance, durability, and manufacturability—key requirements for next-generation hydrogen fuel-cell systems.

08 HYDROGEN

Energy 101 - Wind [Slides]

The Energy 101: Wind presentation, developed for the Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP), provides an overview of wind energy. It covers fundamental concepts, technologies, considerations, case studies, and additional resources.

17 WIND ENERGY

Fabrication of freeform potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystals by belt-on-wheel polishing for spatially tailored polarization control in high-power lasers

Large-aperture (>30 cm) optical components that provide spatially tailored control of the properties of a laser beam, such as phase, polarization, and amplitude, have been the focus of much research and development in recent years. Such optics can improve energy throughput and target implosion efficiency in high-power laser systems conducting inertial confinement fusion research. Here, a method is demonstrated for fabricating freeform surface topographies into the birefringent crystalline material, potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP). Belt-on-wheel polishing with an oil-based fluid, developed to mitigate the deliquescent properties of KDP, is used to deterministically polish a freeform topography into KDP, enabling the fabrication of a wave plate with spatially arbitrary retardance. Testing of the laser-induced damage threshold of belt-on-wheel polished KDP was conducted at a wavelength of 351 nm and a pulse duration of 1 ns. The results revealed that the polished surfaces are highly resistant to laser-induced damage, making them suitable for large-aperture, high-power laser applications.

Urban, Nathaniel D. [Univ. of Rochester, NY (Unite

Nuclear Reactor Heat Extraction for Synthetic Fuel Plants

This report looks at the viability and best approach when producing synthetic fuels using heat and power supplied by advanced nuclear energy systems. The report looks at a low temperature integration pathway with four types of advanced reactors: a pressurized water reactor (PWR), an advanced light water reactor (A-LWR), a sodium fast reactor (SFR), and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). A failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of the coupling system between the nuclear plant and the synthetic fuel systems is performed with the goal of identifying the reliability of such a thermal delivery system. Furthermore, a high temperature pathway is investigated for synfuel coupling to determine if this is more efficient and more cost effective as a coupling approach.

10 - SYNTHETIC FUELS

Community Resilience Through Rapid Restoration Leveraging Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and Low-Cost Sensors

Equitable and automated bottoms-up power restoration following an extreme event will be demonstrated at a site in Puerto Rico. To do so, the team will develop enhanced grid situational awareness techniques integrating behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) discovery, impedance sweeping based outage boundary detection, and feasible restoration path identification algorithms. Resilience metric will be developed and incorporated along with situational awareness information in a distributed Model Predictive Control (MPC)-based restoration optimization algorithm to control and mobilize grid assets. These algorithms will be validated through power hardware-in-the-loop experiments and ultimately, a site demonstration to show that outage recovery time and total recovered load could be improved by >20% over the baseline.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 33, No. 4, October-December 1992]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 499 Technical Note: Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Examination Question Bank System, C. L Jensen and N. L. Skinner; 506 Report on the Specialists’ Meeting on Passive and Active Safety Features of Liquid-Metal Fast Breeder Reactors Organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency at Oarai Engineering Centre of Power Reactor and Nuclear Development Corporation, Japan, November 5-7,1991, S. R. Paranjpe; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 514 A Review of Hydrogen Production During Melt/Water Interaction in LWRs, D. F. Fletcher, B. D. Turland, and S. P. A. Lawrence; 535 A Review of the U 3 0 8 -Al Reaction as a Potential Heat Source in Research and Test Reactor Accidents, J. L. Snelgrove; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 543 Multilevel Interfaces for Power Plant Control Rooms II: A Preliminary Design Space, K. J. Vicente; DESIGN FEATURES: 549 Twenty-Second DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning and Treatment Conference, R. R. Bellamy, D. W. Moeller, and M. W. First; 562 Book Review: Safety Assessment of Unit 5 (WWER-440/W-213) of the Greifswald Nuclear Power Station, M. H. Fontana; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 576 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 586 Analysis of Corrective Actions Applied to Nuclear Power Plant Operations, A. E. Cross; 593 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 596 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 609 Non-Commercial Power Operating Experience; 614 World Nuclear Performance, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 623 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 635 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 639 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1992; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 513 Fourth International Conference on Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing and Waste Management RECOD '94; 585 International Topical Meeting on Advanced Reactors Safety; 622 International Workshop on Implementation of ALARA at Nuclear Power Plants; 648 Short Course on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 648 8th Topical Meeting on Problems in Reactor Physics MEPhi-VOLGA-93; 643 The Authors; 646 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 33

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Smart Charging of Fleet and Personal Electric Vehicles through Joint Vehicle-to-Grid Optimization

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies offer advantages over unmanaged charging (V0G) by enhancing grid stability, reducing fleet operation costs, and supporting integration of variable generation resources. This research develops a day-ahead optimization framework linked with agent-based simulations to evaluate coordinated V2G participation by fleet and personal EVs under 5 energy-pricing settings in Austin, Texas. Three scenarios (V0G, fleet-only V2G, and joint-V2G) are examined, considering real-time price and grid profiles, health-damage costs, and operational constraints for both fleet and personal EVs. Results show how V2G scenarios shift fleet EV charging to mid-day while enabling strategic battery-discharge during evening peaks, mitigating grid stress and lowering EV energy costs. V2G delivers close to 80% energy-cost savings for a 2000-EV fleet in Austin on grid-stressed days, with 55% lower charging pollutant outputs. Joint-V2G amplifies system-level benefits by complementing fleet discharge, but smart-charging equipment costs can offset those benefits.

Electric vehicle

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 29, No. 1, January-March 1988]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 Core History and Nuclide Inventory of the Chernobyl Core at the Time of Accident by Gerald Kirchner and Cornelius C. Noack; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 6 Nonprescriptive Nuclear Safety Regulation: The Example of Loss of Offsite Power by M. W. Golay, V. P. Manno, and C. Vlahoplus, Jr., 20 Nuclear Power Safety Goals in Light of the Chernobyl Accident by C. Whipple and C. Starr; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 29 Containment Loads from Severe Accidents—U.S. Program by W. Kerr and M. K. Dey; PLANT SAFETY FEATURES: 36 Safety Characteristics of Modern High-Temperature Reactors: Focus on German Designs by W. Kröger, H. Nickel, and R. Schulten; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 49 Radiation Hormesis and Nuclear Safety by C. C. Congdon; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 58 Evaluation of Nonradiological Water Chemistry at Power Reactors by Harvey Zibulsky, James J. Kottan, Walter J. Pasciak, Mary Ann Castrogivanni, and Sujit Banerjee, 64 Reactor Shutdown Experience Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 67 Operating U.S. Power Reactors Compiled by E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 85 General Administrative Activities Compiled by E. G. Silver, 94 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides by D. S. Queener, 100 Status of Power-Reactor Projects Undergoing Licensing Review Compiled by E. G. Silver, 103 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30, 1987; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 5 Northwestern University Short Course on Radiation Safety, 28 International Approach to Nuclear Safety (After Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl), 57 RPI Short Course on Modern Developments in Boiling Heat Transfer and Two-Phase Flow, 107 20th DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning Conference, 110 Third International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Power Plant Thermal Hydraulics and Operations, 108 The Authors, 111 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 28.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

The Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

Reliable long-term resource adequacy and grid planning in Hawaii require precise, multi-decadal meteorological records. This paper introduces the Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit, a 26-year (2000-2025) high-fidelity atmospheric dataset developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). We present a validation study of the underlying WRF model configurations, comparing the legacy MYNN PBL scheme against an alternative YSU formulation. Using vertical lidar profiles and surface buoy data, our analysis identified a foundational geometric distortion in the legacy NOW-23 Hawaii dataset caused by an incorrect grid projection. When evaluated on a corrected, zero-distortion grid, the YSU scheme demonstrated superior performance in bias and cRMSE compared to the legacy setup. To address these findings, the MET Toolkit has been re-produced as a unified 26-year record using the optimized YSU setup and corrected geometry. This dataset offers the Hawaii power sector a robust, validated, and homogenous reference for future grid resilience and energy integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Chronology of ungrouped achondrites Northwest Africa 11119 and 7325/8486: implications for early evolution of a heterogeneous crust on a differentiated planetesimal

The chronology of ungrouped achondrites provides key insights into the timeline of igneous activity in the early Solar System. Two ungrouped achondrites – Northwest Africa (NWA) 11119 (andesite-dacite) and NWA 8486 and its pair NWA 7325 (olivine gabbro) – are the focus of this study, where their chronologies are investigated using multiple high-resolution techniques. Here we report the lead-lead (207Pb-206Pb) and manganese-chromium (53Mn-53Cr) systematics of NWA 11119, as well as the 207Pb-206Pb systematics of NWA 8486 alongside aluminum-magnesium (26Al-26Mg) systematics for NWA 7325. The U-corrected 207Pb-206Pb ages of NWA 11119 and the combined ages of NWA 7325/8486 are 4566.4 ± 0.8 Ma and 4563.8 ± 1.9 Ma, respectively. Additionally, we report the 53Mn-53Cr age of NWA 11119 to be 4564.4 ± 2.5 Ma and the 26Al-26Mg age of NWA 7325/8486 to be 4563.1 ± 0.3 Ma. The formation of NWA 11119 requires partial melting of a (likely chondritic) source reservoir leading to eruption of Si rich, alkali depleted magmas, while NWA 7325/8486 likely formed from a chemically fractionated reservoir with superchondritic Al/Mg. The clear geochemical and isotopic similarities of these achondrites, combined with the chronology reported here, is suggestive of formation of these two ungrouped achondrites on a common parent body which likely formed in the inner Solar System and experienced early differentiation under reducing conditions. If these achondrites did share a parent body, it would suggest that primary asteroids in the early Solar System commonly produced mineralogically and geochemically heterogeneous crusts. While mineralogical and geochemical heterogeneity is known to exist in the (mostly mafic) crust of asteroid Vesta, our findings show that even more significant crustal heterogeneity (representing felsic and mafic compositions) may exist on other asteroids.

Cartwright, Julia [University of Leicester, UK]