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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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486 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Direct regeneration of degraded LiFePO4 cathodes via a separator-enabled prelithiation strategy

A persistent challenge in lithium-ion batteries is the loss of active lithium due to the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and associated side reactions. While prelithiation employing lithium replenishment separator (LRS) has been proven effective in compensating for lithium loss, previous studies have largely been accompanied by gas evolution or solid residue formation during the prelithiation process. To surmount this challenge, we present a LRS based on 4-fluoro-1,2-dihydroxybenzene lithium salt (LiDF), capable of mitigating lithium loss while producing decomposition products that integrate directly into the electrolyte as functional additives which can assist with the stability of the SEI, free from gas or solid formation, thus establishing a sustainable and environmentally benign strategy for lithium compensation. Incorporation of the LRS enables the pristine LiFePO4||graphite (Gr) full cell to achieve 10.8% higher capacity than the cell with a polypropylene separator (PPS) after 200 cycles at 0.5C. Remarkably, the degraded LiFePO4 (D-LFP)||Gr full cell with the LRS exhibits a 135.8% capacity improvement over the PPS-based cell after 500 cycles. These findings establish the LRS as a powerful approach for both boosting high-performance lithium-ion batteries and recovering the capacity of degraded batteries.

Tao, Fujun↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interface Design for High‐Performance All‐Solid‐State Lithium Batteries

All‐solid‐state batteries suffer from high interface resistance and lithium dendrite growth leading to low Li plating/stripping Coulombic efficiency (CE) of <90% and low critical current density at high capacity. Here, in this work, both challenges are simultaneously addressed and the Li plating/stripping CE is significantly increased to 99.6% at 0.2 mA cm −2 /0.2 mAh cm −2 , and critical current density (CCD) of > 3.0 mA cm −2 /3.0 mAh cm −2 by inserting a mixed ionic‐electronic conductive (MIEC) and lithiophobic LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Bi nanocomposite interlayer between Li 6 PS 5 Cl electrolyte and Li anode. The highly lithiophobic LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Bi interlayer with high ionic conductivity (10 −5 S cm −1 ) and low electronic conductivity (3.4×10 −7 S cm −1 ) enables Li to plate on the current collector (CC) surface rather than on Li 6 PS 5 Cl surface avoiding Li 6 PS 5 Cl electrolyte reduction. During initial Li plating on CC, Li penetrates into porous LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Bi interlayer and lithiates Bi nanoparticles into Li 3 Bi. The lithiophilic Li 3 Bi and Li 3 N nanoparticles in LiF‐C‐Li 3 N‐Li 3 Bi sub‐interlayer will move to CC along with plated Li, forming LiF‐C/Li 3 N‐Li 3 Bi lithiophobic/lithiophilic sublayer during the following Li stripping. This interlayer enables Co 0.1 Fe 0.9 S 2 /Li 6 PS 5 Cl/Li cell with an areal capacity of 1.4 mAh cm −2 to achieve a cycle life of >850 cycles at 150 mA g −1 . The lithiophobic/lithiophilic interlayer enables solid‐state metal batteries to simultaneously achieve high energy and long cycle life.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

AL-CRADA-2025-01 Final Report: American-Made Wind Turbine Materials Recycling Prize Accelerate! Phase 2

This report summarizes the Phase 2 achievements of the Wind Turbine Materials Recycling Prize project led by Critical Materials Recycling (CMR) in partnership with Ames National Laboratory. The team demonstrated the technical feasibility and economic viability of recovering and reusing rare-earth Nd-Fe-B magnets from end-of-life (EOL) wind turbine generators. Through mechanical disassembly, demagnetization, and precision processing, magnets were harvested and characterized to assess structural, compositional, and magnetic properties. Results showed that recovered magnets performed on par with commercial-grade counterparts, enabling their integration into actuator and motor prototypes without redesign. System-level modeling and finite-element simulations validated operational performance, while Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis revealed up to 20% material cost savings and 2–3% reductions in overall motor system costs. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) further confirmed substantial environmental benefits, including a ~94% reduction in global warming potential relative to virgin magnet production. The project’s success was enabled by a tightly integrated partnership between industry and national lab experts, illustrating a viable path for domestic magnet-to-magnet recycling. These findings support a scalable, circular solution for rare-earth material recovery, reducing dependence on imported critical minerals and advancing sustainable clean energy technologies.

Lograsso, Thomas [Ames Laboratory (AMES), Ames, IA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design Strategies Based on Electronic Interactions for Effective Catalysts in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries

Abstract Lithium–sulfur batteries (LSBs) are considered promising next‐generation batteries due to their high energy density (>500 W h kg −1 ). However, LSBs exhibit an unsatisfactory energy density (<400 W h kg −1 ) and cycle life (<300 cycles) because of the shuttle effect caused by soluble lithium polysulfide (LiPS) intermediates and the sluggish conversion reaction kinetics caused by insulating sulfur (S 8 ) and lithium sulfide (Li 2 S). Although various types of catalysts, including metal‐based compounds to single‐atom catalysts, have been reported to address these issues, most catalysts exhibited limited catalytic activity under practical lean electrolyte conditions (<5 µL mg −1 ). A comprehensive understanding of the synthetic strategy and catalytic mechanism of catalysts is essential for their design, but understanding the electronic effects of the catalysts and LiPS is more important. Furthermore, the electronic design of these catalysts is not well understood. In this review, we introduce the catalytic mechanisms in LSBs and discuss catalyst design strategies in terms of electronic effects on the interactions between reactants and catalysts, with a primary focus on heterogeneous catalytic systems. We additionally consider how the electronic property of homogeneous systems, particularly redox mediators, affects catalytic behavior under lean electrolyte conditions and propose future research directions for catalyst development in LSBs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polymer coatings on zirconia microspheres via rotating flow fluid dynamics

Conventional tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coatings for nuclear fuels require multi-step and expensive formation processes; any breakage of the coatings may lead to fission species release. Polymer derived ceramic (PDC) coatings can be a suitable alternative to address these issues. In this study, allylhydridopolycarbosilane (SMP-10) coatings were created on yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) microspheres using a Rotating Flow Fluid Dynamics (RFFD) coating method. The effects of curing temperature, rotation speed, and coating cycle/time on the coating were analyzed. Surface functionalization of YSZ microspheres with NaOH resulted in good adhesion between the polymer precursor and the YSZ kernel particles. Spectroscopy analysis revealed complete curing of SMP-10 coated YSZ at 160 °C. Rotation speed and coating time significantly affect the coating characteristics. After 3 cycles at lower rotation speed (50 rpm) for 10 min each, the coating obtained was uniform and homogeneous. In comparison, the coating showed almost 10 times less eccentricity at a high rotation speed of 300 rpm. Compared with the coatings prepared at 300 rpm condition, the coatings have higher sphericity and lower eccentricity at 50 rpm. Overall, this study provides a novel and effective route for fabricating and curing SMP-10 precursor coatings on YSZ microspheres.

Ravi, Nivetha [University of Alabama, Birmingham]↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crack‐Free Single‐Crystalline LiNiO 2 for High Energy Density All‐Solid‐State Batteries

Abstract Single‐crystalline layered oxide (LiNi 1‐ x ‐ y Mn x Co y O 2 ) cathodes have been found to exhibit exceptional electrochemical properties when coupled with various inorganic solid electrolytes (ISEs) in all‐solid‐state batteries (ASSBs). Their advantages stem from the robust morphological integrity with the absence of grain boundaries and the high electrochemical oxidative stability. Here, ASSBs featuring single‐crystalline LiNiO 2 (LNO) with the highest Ni content are reported, offering a high theoretical specific capacity of 275 mAh g ‐1 alongside a high average discharge voltage (3.7 V vs Li + /Li). Through a careful investigation, it is demonstrated that micron‐sized single‐crystalline LNO (µSC‐LNO) composite cathodes with a halide ISE exhibit a high initial discharge capacity of 205 mAh g ‐1 with an outstanding cycle performance over 200 cycles in room‐temperature ASSBs. The significance of engineering parameters is emphasized, such as particle size and specific density, in promoting a homogeneous and fast Li + transport within the composite cathodes. Furthermore, the formation of undesirable interphase between the halide ISE in the cathode and sulfide ISE separator is elucidated, which may be a critical factor impeding long‐term cyclability of ASSBs. This work provides insights into the design of composite cathodes for high‐energy‐density ASSBs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

High‐Loading Lithium‐Sulfur Batteries with Solvent‐Free Dry‐Electrode Processing

Abstract Lithium‐sulfur (Li‐S) batteries, with their high energy density, nontoxicity, and the natural abundance of sulfur, hold immense potential as the next‐generation energy storage technology. To maximize the actual energy density of the Li‐S batteries for practical applications, it is crucial to escalate the areal capacity of the sulfur cathode by fabricating an electrode with high sulfur loading. Herein, ultra‐high sulfur loading (up to 12 mg cm −2 ) cathodes are fabricated through an industrially viable and sustainable solvent‐free dry‐processing method that utilizes a polytetrafluoroethylene binder fibrillation. Due to its low porosity cathode architecture formed by the binder fibrillation process, the dry‐processed electrodes exhibit a relatively lower initial capacity compared to the slurry‐processed electrode. However, its mechanical stability is well maintained throughout the cycling without the formation of electrode cracking, demonstrating significantly superior cycling stability. Additionally, through the optimization of the dry‐processing, a single‐layer pouch cell with a loading of 9 mg cm −2 and a novel multi‐layer pouch cell that uses an aluminum mesh as its current collector with a total loading of 14 mg cm −2 are introduced. To address the reduced initial capacity of dry‐processed electrodes, strategies such as incorporating electrocatalysts or employing prelithiated active materials are suggested.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observation of N-rich solid-electrolyte interphase by ToF-SIMS.

Formation of a stable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) between lithium electrodes and electrolyte upon multiple charge/discharge cycles is crucial to a long-term lithium-ion battery performance. Addition of LiNO3 to lithium bis (fluorosulfonyl) imide/poly(ethylene oxide) (LiFSI/PEO) electrolyte leads to a durable SEI that is electrically insulating yet highly conductive to Li ions, chemically and electrochemically stable, physically uniform, and mechanically robust. ToF-SIMS was used here in combination with sputtering by a gaseous cluster ion beam (GCIB) to examine how the addition of a small proportion of LiNO3 to the LiFSI/PEO electrolyte affects the SEI composition. Negative ion ToF-SIMS spectra of the cycled samples display an intense m/z 26 peak associated with the SEI. Exact mass assignments and isotopic ratios indicate that this peak should be assigned as (CN-)-C-12, with little to no negative secondary ion signal arising from (LiF-)-Li-7. This CN- signal appears to arise from an N-rich portion of the SEI adjacent to the Li electrode that is depleted in LiF relative to the bulk electrolyte. The dearth of LiF- (and LiF+ from the positive ion spectra) is unexpected because LiF has been identified in the SEI in similar samples. Finally, GCIB sputtering indicates that the SEI adheres more strongly to the Li electrode than to the LiFSI/PEO electrolyte.

Shavandi, Seyedeh Reyhaneh↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrostatic‐Attraction‐Driven Self‐Assembled Graphene‐Disordered Rocksalt Composite Cathode for Lithium‐Ion Batteries

Disordered rocksalt cathodes hold promise for achieving high-capacity lithium-ion batteries while using low-cost, earth-abundant elements. However, their electrochemical performance remains critically limited by their poor electronic conductivity. Conventional strategies such as high-energy ball milling with excess carbon additives can improve conductivity but remain challenging to scale and often produce defects and increase surface area, thereby accelerating capacity degradation. Herein, we report an alternative approach of electrostatic-attraction-driven self-assembly to fabricate Li 1.2 Mn 0.6 Ti 0.2 O 1.8 F 0.2 (LMTOF) particles uniformly wrapped with electronically conductive graphene sheets without associated materials degradation. The graphene-wrapped LMTOF demonstrates significantly improved cycling stability (89% capacity retention after 100 cycles) and superior rate capability compared with an LMTOF-carbon composite electrode fabricated using the conventional high-energy ball-milling process. Post-cycling analysis reveals reduced oxygen evolution, suppressed unwanted side reactions, and improved structural integrity for the graphene-LMTOF composite. This work highlights the advantages of solution-based carbon wrapping and offers a scalable strategy to prepare high-performance DRX cathodes for lithium-ion batteries.

carbon composite↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-field modeling of stored-energy-driven grain growth with intra-granular variation in dislocation density

Abstract We present a phase-field (PF) model to simulate the microstructure evolution occurring in polycrystalline materials with a variation in the intra-granular dislocation density. The model accounts for two mechanisms that lead to the grain boundary migration: the driving force due to capillarity and that due to the stored energy arising from a spatially varying dislocation density. In addition to the order parameters that distinguish regions occupied by different grains, we introduce dislocation density fields that describe spatial variation of the dislocation density. We assume that the dislocation density decays as a function of the distance the grain boundary has migrated. To demonstrate and parameterize the model, we simulate microstructure evolution in two dimensions, for which the initial microstructure is based on real-time experimental data. Additionally, we applied the model to study the effect of a cyclic heat treatment (CHT) on the microstructure evolution. Specifically, we simulated stored-energy-driven grain growth during three thermal cycles, as well as grain growth without stored energy that serves as a baseline for comparison. We showed that the microstructure evolution proceeded much faster when the stored energy was considered. A non-self-similar evolution was observed in this case, while a nearly self-similar evolution was found when the microstructure evolution is driven solely by capillarity. These results suggest a possible mechanism for the initiation of abnormal grain growth during CHT. Finally, we demonstrate an integrated experimental-computational workflow that utilizes the experimental measurements to inform the PF model and its parameterization, which provides a foundation for the development of future simulation tools capable of quantitative prediction of microstructure evolution during non-isothermal heat treatment.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoupling Failure Pathways in Li-O 2 Cells Operated Under Lean Electrolyte Conditions

The operation of lithium-oxygen (Li-O 2 ) batteries under lean electrolyte conditions offers higher energy density but leads to rapid degradation and short cycle life. Although cathode passivation and electrolyte decomposition occur in all regimes, we show that under lean electrolyte conditions, failure is primarily driven by progressive electrolyte consumption at the lithium/solid electrolyte interphase (SEI), rather than by irreversible cathode passivation. Poor wetting of the lithium surface results in heterogeneous SEI growth and high local current densities, which accelerate electrolyte loss and cell failure. Strategies aimed at improving interfacial stability, including optimized wetting and SEI forming additives, significantly extend cycle life without compromising energy density. Our results establish anode-electrolyte interactions as the dominant degradation mechanism under lean electrolyte conditions, and emphasize the need to engineer a stable Li/SEI interface for long-lasting Li-O 2 batteries.

Córdoba, Daniel [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational modeling of coupled mechanical damage and electrochemistry in ternary oxide composite electrodes

Performance degradation of ternary layered oxide cathodes largely originates from their loss of structural integrity in cyclic usage. Mechanical damage, such as intergranular fracture of the active particles, is not only a mechanical cleavage process but also interferes with electrochemical kinetics such as infiltration of liquid electrolyte, surface corrosion of the constituent primary particles, and may eventually isolate the primary grains from the electron conducting network. Here, in this work, we develop a computational framework that integrates electrochemistry of a LiNi x Mn y Co 1−x−y O 2 (NMC) composite cathode with mechanical damage of the active particles. To fully examine the intricate chemomechanical behavior of the electrode, we evaluate the effects of the anisotropic material properties, the influence of mechanical potential on Li transport, and the concurrent intergranular fracture and electrolyte penetration along the grain boundaries upon multiple cycles. Electrolyte infiltration benefits capacity retention but aggravates further mechanical damage by corrosion. Structural failure mostly occurs in the first charging due to the anisotropic mechanical strain between the primary grains, while the resulting damage remains stable in the later few cycles. The results are consistent with experimental observations and the integration of electrochemistry and mechanical failure enables a step further understanding of the complex mechanism of battery degradation.

Battery degradation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spinel high-entropy oxides (FeNiCrMnZnX) 3 O 4 (X = Al, mg) as anode materials for high-performance lithium-ion batteries

To address the high cost, cobalt dependency, and resource constraints typical of conventional high-entropy oxide (HEO) anodes, this study reports the successful synthesis of two Co-free, six-component spinel-type HEOs(FeNiCrMnZnAl) 3 O 4 (HEO-Al) and (FeNiCrMnZnMg) 3 O 4 (HEO-Mg), via a sol-gel method. The distinct effects of Al 3+ and Mg 2+ incorporation on the electrochemical performance and lithium storage kinetics were systematically investigated. XRD, Raman, and TEM characterizations confirm that both materials possess a pure spinel phase, uniform particle size, and homogeneous elemental distribution. Notably, electrochemical evaluations reveal that HEO-Al delivers a superior reversible capacity of 480.7 mAh g −1 after 100 cycles at 0.1 A g −1 , and maintains 354.5 mAh g −1 after 1000 long-term cycles at 1 A g −1 , significantly outperforming HEO-Mg. Kinetic analysis indicates that HEO-Al exhibits lower charge transfer resistance, a higher Li + diffusion coefficient, and a pseudocapacitive contribution of up to 82%. Furthermore, these findings demonstrate that Al substitution effectively optimizes the structural stability and lithium storage kinetics of Co-free HEOs, providing a viable strategy for designing low-cost, highly stable HEO anode systems.

Anode materials↗
DOE OSTI2023

Challenges and Prospects of Sodium‐Ion and Potassium‐Ion Batteries for Mass Production

The exponential growth of the lithium‐ion (LIB) market is causing a significant disparity between the supply chain and demand for its resources. In this regard, sodium‐ion and potassium‐ion batteries are promising alternatives to LIBs due to their low cost. However, the larger sizes of Na + and K + ions create challenges that prevent them from achieving energy densities comparable to LIBs while maintaining an acceptable cycle life. Here, in this perspective, the aim is to evaluate the status of Na‐ion and K‐ion batteries and the challenges associated with them on both fundamental and commercial levels. The focus is on the structural instability arising from phase transitions during cycling, intricate chemical degradation processes, and potential avenues for enhancing their performance with a specific goal of improving their viability for grid‐scale energy storage. Materials production and abundance limitations for the chemistries of the state‐of‐the‐art materials and account for critical parameters from both the perspective of researchers and investors are analyzed. This analysis aims to provide insights into the strategic trade‐offs required to effectively implement the technology in real‐world applications, such as grid‐scale storage and other areas. Furthermore, the utilization of metals with low or no supply‐chain problems as an important aspect of these trade‐offs is considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid biophysical systems for atmospheric CO 2 capture

Negative emissions technologies will be essential for limiting anthropogenic global temperature increases to 2 °C in the later years of the 21st century. Carbonic anhydrase (CA) metalloenzymes catalyze the otherwise slow conversion of CO 2 into carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ), suggesting their utility in the rapid hydration and downstream capture of dissolved CO 2 in aqueous media for a variety of CO 2 capture methods, such as thermal and pH swings and mineralization. The possibility of driving the rapid capture of CO 2 by catalyzing the CO 2 hydration bottleneck carries real potential for realizing efficient direct air capture (DAC) and direct ocean capture (DOC) systems. However, scaled application of CAs will be dependent on some way of economically sourcing the enzymes at volumes relevant to scaled DAC/DOC operations. In this perspective, we consider the prospect of catalyzing CO 2 hydration using a CA that is bound to the outer membrane of a cyanobacterial host, engineered constructs we call CyCAMs. Coupling extracellular CA expression to a marine, photosynthetic cyanobacterial host results in a CO 2 hydration catalyst that is continuously refreshed during the bacterial growth cycle, without the need for enzyme purification or harvesting steps. In the case of marine cyanobacteria, sunlight and the solutes native to seawater provide the respective energy, nutrients and sources of inorganic carbon essential to maintaining the bacterial population. We consider the potential impact of CA-mediated CO 2 hydration on a variety of DAC processes, with CO 2 mineralization explored as a primary use case.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗