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Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 1, January-June 1995]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 The Chornobyl Accident Revisited, Part II: The State of the Nuclear Fuel Located Within the Chornobyl Sarcophagus, A A. Borovoi and A. R. Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 33 Nuclear Power Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, R. Wilson; 46 Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors in the Former Eastern European Countries, S. Chakraborty; 53 Technical Note: On the Definition of Common-Cause Failures, H. Paula; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 58 Modeling and Analysis of Core-Debris Recriticality During Hypothetical Severe Accidents in the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor, S.-H. Kim, V. Georgevich, D. B. Simpson, C. O. Slater, and R. P. Taleyarkhan; 68 Ignitability of Hydrogen/Oxygen/Diluent Mixtures in the Presence of Hot Surfaces, R. K. Kumar and G. W. Koroll; 94 Coupled RELAP5 and CONTAIN Accident Analysis Using PVM, K. A. Smith, A. J. Baratta, and G. E. Robinson; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 109 Application of Fuzzy Logic in Nuclear Reactor Control Part I: An Assessment of State-of-the-Art, A. S. Heger, N. K. Alang-Rashid, and M. Jamshidi; DESIGN FEATURES: 122 Twenty-Third DOE/NRC Nuclear Air-Cleaning and Treatment Conference, R. R. Bellamy, J. J. Hayes, and M. W. First; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 135 Atmospheric Dispersion and the Radiological Consequences of Normal Airborne Effluents from a Nuclear Power Plant, D. Fang, C. Z. Sun, and L. Yang; 142 Calculation of Distribution Coefficients for Radionuclides in Soils and Sediments, I. Puigdomenech and U. Bergstrom: OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 155 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 158 Operating Experience Feedback Report—Reliability of Safety-Related Steam Turbine-Driven Standby Pumps Used in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants, J. R. Boardman; 166 Turbine Building Hazards, H. L Ornstein; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 169 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 175 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 32 Harvard School of Public Health In-Place Filter Testing Workshop; 134 International Conference on Advances in the Operational Safety of Nuclear Power Plants; 193 30th Tennessee Industries Week; 193 DOE Technical Standards Program 1995 Workshop; 194 Multiphase Flow Experiments and Instrumentation; 180 The Authors; 185 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volumes 34 and 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Signatures of a spin-active interface and a locally enhanced Zeeman field in a superconductor-chiral material heterostructure

A localized Zeeman field, intensified at heterostructure interfaces, could play a crucial role in a broad area including spintronics and unconventional superconductors. Conventionally, the generation of a local Zeeman field is achieved through magnetic exchange coupling with a magnetic material. However, magnetic elements often introduce defects, which could weaken or destroy superconductivity. Alternatively, the coupling between a superconductor with strong spin-orbit coupling and a nonmagnetic chiral material could serve as a promising approach to generate a spin-active interface. Here, we leverage an interface superconductor, namely, induced superconductivity in noble metal surface states, to probe the spin-active interface. Our results unveil an enhanced interface Zeeman field, which selectively closes the surface superconducting gap while preserving the bulk superconducting pairing. The chiral material, i.e., trigonal tellurium, also induces Andreev bound states (ABS) exhibiting spin polarization. The field dependence of ABS manifests a substantially enhanced interface Landég-factor (g eff ~ 12), thereby corroborating the enhanced interface Zeeman energy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Energy-Optimal Vehicle Longitudinal Motion Control via Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle and Ultra-Local Model

Longitudinal vehicle motion control is essential for enhancing performance and optimizing a vehicle’s energy usage. However, it remains a challenging task due to the nonlinear and uncertain nature of vehicle dynamics, along with varying driving conditions. This paper presents a novel ultra-local optimal control approach based on Pontryagin’s Minimum Principle (PMP) that circumvents the need for detailed system identification by employing an ultra-local model. The control objective is to minimize the total energy consumption under boundary conditions while ensuring smooth traction force generation. The proposed approach is evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle model in three representative scenarios: (i) nominal driving, (ii) a change in tire road friction coefficient (TRFC) from 0.5 to 0.65 and road slope from 0% to 5% during the maneuver, with target velocity unchanged, and (iii) a change in target velocity from 20 m/s to 0 m/s during the maneuver, while maintaining nominal TRFC and slope conditions. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method delivers robust performance, effectively balancing consumption and tracking accuracy in all tested scenarios.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at

Active Learning for Rapid Targeted Synthesis of Compositionally Complex Alloys

The next generation of advanced materials is tending toward increasingly complex compositions. Synthesizing precise composition is time-consuming and becomes exponentially demanding with increasing compositional complexity. An experienced human operator does significantly better than a novice but still struggles to consistently achieve precision when synthesis parameters are coupled. The time to optimize synthesis becomes a barrier to exploring scientifically and technologically exciting compositionally complex materials. This investigation demonstrates an active learning (AL) approach for optimizing physical vapor deposition synthesis of thin-film alloys with up to five principal elements. We compared AL-based on Gaussian process (GP) and random forest (RF) models. The best performing models were able to discover synthesis parameters for a target quinary alloy in 14 iterations. We also demonstrate the capability of these models to be used in transfer learning tasks. RF and GP models trained on lower dimensional systems (i.e., ternary, quarternary) show an immediate improvement in prediction accuracy compared to models trained only on quinary samples. Furthermore, samples that only share a few elements in common with the target composition can be used for model pre-training. We believe that such AL approaches can be widely adapted to significantly accelerate the exploration of compositionally complex materials.

Chemistry

Achieving uniaxial magnetic anisotropy in Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3 through Co- and Sm-substitution

Th2⁢Zn17−type structure-based permanent magnets, such as Sm2⁢Fe17⁢N3, offer strong potential as alternatives to neodymium magnets (NdFeB), but their practical use is limited by phase stability and the scarcity of Sm. Ce-based counterparts, particularly Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3, are attractive low-cost candidates, yet their intrinsic planar magnetic anisotropy restricts permanent-magnet performance. Here, we induce uniaxial magnetic anisotropy in Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3 through two approaches: (i) Co substitution on the Fe sublattice and (ii) partial substitution of Ce with Sm. Combined density functional theory and experimental results show that both strategies modify the 3⁢𝑑–4⁢𝑓 interactions and band filling, yielding magnetization values up to ∼1.2T and magnetocrystalline anisotropy energies exceeding 1MJ/m3 for Co-alloyed compositions, with significantly larger anisotropy achieved upon Sm substitution. In addition, the Sm-substituted Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3 samples exhibit enhanced high-temperature stability compared to Sm2⁢Fe17⁢N3. These findings demonstrate that Ce2⁢Fe17⁢N3-based alloys can deliver magnetic performance suitable for permanent-magnet applications while reducing cost and reliance on critical rare-earth elements, and they provide practical design guidelines for rare-earth-lean magnets for energy and industrial applications.

Pokhrel, Nabaraj [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000328283076)

Hybrid Power Purchase Agreements for Flexible 24/7 Energy Delivery – A Comprehensive Review of Current Practices and Research Pathways

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are becoming increasingly preferred among large energy consumers, such as data centers, to secure cost-effective energy and meet accelerating demand growth. Traditionally, variable renewable energy (VRE)-based PPAs operate on a pay-as-produced basis, balancing supply and demand for a relatively longer duration (e.g., annually). However, the focus is shifting toward matching supply and demand on an hourly basis to fully meet energy needs. This shift requires the integration of flexible energy resources, such as hydropower, thermal generation, and energy storage, to complement VRE sources like wind and solar, forming the foundation for 24/7 PPA. This work contributes by: (i) reviewing emerging market trends and current practices in PPA procurement, supported by data on PPA prices and technology portfolios; (ii) synthesizing the existing literature on modeling approaches for contract pricing, quantities, hybrid resource procurement, and risk management in 24/7 PPA design, while identifying key research gaps; and (iii) proposing an integrated 24/7 PPA design framework along with two contracting mechanisms from the perspectives of both PPA providers and consumers. The proposed framework highlights critical modeling challenges, risk-allocation issues, and future research opportunities for 24/7 PPA design.

24/7

Final Technical Report: Transport of Complex Mixtures in Ion-Containing Polymer Membranes

Permselective ion-containing membranes are an integral component for many applications from water treatment, fuel cells, and solar fuels devices where the selective transport of molecules and ions is desired. In solar fuels devices, ion-containing polymer membranes are responsible for permitting selective transport of ions between electrodes to maintain overall charge neutrality yet limit transport of reaction products produced at the electrodes. While the transport of single solutes through such membranes has been fairly well described, binary and multicomponent transport is poorly understood due to the myriad of interactions that occur in these systems (i.e. between co-permeants and between permeants and the membrane). Solar fuels devices are just one example of an application where understanding the transport of multiple simultaneous species is critically important to improving device performance as product crossover leads to reductions in overall device performance. The objectives of this research was to improve our understanding of the complex array of factors that influence transport behavior of multiple solutes within ion-containing polymer membranes. This experimental project addressed the lack of fundamental understanding of multicomponent transport behavior by synthesizing ion exchange membranes with varied incorporation of comonomers (ionic and neutral moieties) to investigate fundamental relationships between membrane structure, membrane physiochemical properties, and transport behavior of solutes and complex solute mixtures through dense, hydrated membranes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

De Novo Design of High‐Affinity Miniprotein Binders Targeting Francisella Tularensis Virulence Factor

Abstract Francisella tularensis poses considerable public health risk due to its high infectivity and potential for bioterrorism. Francisella‐like lipoprotein (Flpp3), a key virulence factor unique to Francisella, plays critical roles in infection and immune evasion, making it a promising target for therapeutic development. However, the lack of well‐defined binding pockets and structural information on native interactions has hindered structure‐guided ligand discovery against Flpp3. Here, we used a combination of physics‐based and deep‐learning methods to design high‐affinity miniprotein binders targeting two distinct sites on Flpp3. We identified four binders for site I with binding affinities ranging between 24–110 nM. For the second site, an initial binder showed a dissociation constant ( K D ) of 81 nM, and subsequent site saturation mutagenesis yielded variants with sub‐nanomolar affinities. Circular dichroism confirmed the topology of designed miniproteins. The X‐ray crystal structure of Flpp3 in complex with a site I binder is nearly identical to the design model (Cα root‐mean‐square deviation (RMSD): 0.9 Å). These designed miniproteins provide research tools to explore the roles of Flpp3 in tularemia and should enable the development of new therapeutic candidates.

Gokce‐Alpkilic, Gizem [Molecular Engineering and S

Evidence for large baryonic feedback at low and intermediate redshifts from kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich observations with ACT and DESI photometric galaxies

Recent advances in cosmological observations have provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the distribution of baryons relative to the underlying matter. In this work, we show that the gas is more extended than the dark matter, and the amount of baryonic feedback at $z \lesssim 1$ disfavors low-feedback models such as that of state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG compared with high-feedback models such as that of the original Illustris simulation. This has important implications for bridging the gap between theory and observations and understanding galaxy formation and evolution. Furthermore, a better grasp of the baryon-dark matter link is critical to future cosmological analyses, which are currently impeded by our limited knowledge of baryonic feedback. Here, we measure the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), stacked on the luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging survey. This is the first analysis to use photometric redshifts for reconstructing galaxy velocities. Due to the large number of galaxies comprising the DESI imaging survey, this is the highest signal-to-noise stacked kSZ measurement to date: we detect the signal at 13$σ$, finding strong evidence that the gas is more spread out than the dark matter, as well as a preference for larger feedback compared to some commonly used state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. Here, our work opens up the possibility of recalibrating large hydrodynamical simulations using the kSZ effect. In addition, our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for baryonic feedback with future surveys such as LSST through direct probes such as the kSZ, and shed light on long-standing enigmas in astrophysics, such as the “missing baryon” problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Metrology for femtosecond pulsed x-ray heating in diamond anvil cell experiments at the European XFEL: Revisiting the iron phase diagram up to 150 GPa

The development of pulsed intense x-ray sources, such as free electron laser, offers new avenues for high pressure experiments. Here, we study the feasibility and metrology of x-ray heating in diamond anvil cells at the European x-ray free electron laser. This method enables one to volumetrically heat the sample while inhibiting chemical migration and probing the crystallographic structure of the sample throughout the heating with a high repetition rate. We focus our study on iron, whose phase diagram is well established up to 100 GPa, to explore the possibilities and limitations of this technique. We volumetrically heat iron samples at starting pressures ranging from 10 to 138 GPa, using the x-ray beam pulsed at 4.5 MHz in a serial pump-and-probe experimental design. Experimental challenges arise from temperature gradients within the sample, changes in temperature at the 100 ns timescale, the difficulty of direct temperature estimates, the effect of thermal pressure, and the presence of metastable crystallites due to rapid cycles of heating and cooling. Hence, we develop a multi-crystal-like data processing method that allows us to account for sample heterogeneity in probed conditions. We then calibrate our measurements using known physical properties of iron under pressure. Thermal pressure in our experiments increases from 4% of the isochoric prediction at 10 GPa to 23% at 138 GPa, and we show that our data are in agreement with most previous observations of iron in this pressure range. The method can now be implemented at higher pressures and temperatures and on materials with unknown phase diagrams.

Materials science

Role of Amorphous Chains in Nanoplastic Formation from Semicrystalline Polymers

Semicrystalline polymers, e.g., polyethylene terephthalate (PET), release micro- (100 nm to 1 mm) and nanoplastics (up to 100 nm) [MNPL] when they are degraded under quiescent conditions. However, the exact molecular mechanisms leading to material fragmentation into MNPL are unknown. Here, we monitor the evolution of chain molecular weight and the MNPL production kinetics during hydrolysis of PET pellets. We find that only ~0.6% of the amorphous phase ester bonds are hydrolyzed at the onset of MNPL release. Then, by combining a random scission model with measured amorphous spacings, we estimate that only ~15% of the stress transmitters in the amorphous phase, namely, bridges and entangled loops, have failed by this point. Thus, spontaneous fragmentation of the semicrystalline nanostructure occurs despite significant intercrystalline connectivity. We resolve this apparent contradiction by proposing that fragmentation can only occur when progressive tie-chain scission causes the material to undergo the ductile/brittle transition. Mechanistically, we speculate that the internal stresses responsible for material fragmentation are caused by processing (i.e., residual stresses) and/or sample densification induced by chemi-crystallization. We discuss additional factors that may affect our analysis and thus require further investigation, such as skin-core effects, preferential degradation of stress transmitters and/or recrystallization processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Observation of Extraordinary Vibration Scatterings Induced by Strong Anharmonicity in Lead‐Free Halide Double Perovskites

Abstract Lead‐free halide double perovskites provide a promising solution for the long‐standing issues of lead‐containing halide perovskites, i.e., the toxicity of Pb and the low stability under ambient conditions and high‐intensity illumination. Their light‐to‐electricity or thermal‐to‐electricity conversion is strongly determined by the dynamics of the corresponding lattice vibrations. Here, the measurement of lattice dynamics is presented in a prototypical lead‐free halide double perovskite(Cs 2 NaInCl 6 ). The quantitative measurements and first‐principles calculations show that the scatterings among lattice vibrations at room temperature are at the timescale of ≈1 ps, which stems from the extraordinarily strong anharmonicity in Cs 2 NaInCl 6 . Further the degree of anharmonicity of each type of atom is quantitatively characterized in the Cs 2 NaInCl 6 single crystal, which stems from the interatomic forces, and demonstrate that this strong anharmonicity is synergistically contributed by the bond hierarchy, the tilting of the NaCl 6 and InCl 6 octahedral units, and the rattling of Cs + ions. Consequently, the crystalline Cs 2 NaInCl 6 possesses an ultralow thermal conductivity of ≈0.43 W mK −1 at room temperature, and a weak temperature dependence ofT −0.41 . These findings uncovered the underlying mechanisms behind the dynamics of lattice vibrations in double perovskites, which can largely benefit the design of optoelectronics and thermoelectrics based on halide double perovskites.

Chemistry

Preliminary Assessment for the Electric Load Shifting Potential of Integrating Thermal Energy Storage with Heat Pumps in Residential Buildings in Texas of United States

The widespread adoption of electric-driven heat pumps for heating and cooling is expected to significantly increase electric demand. Cooling electric demand will result in an increase in peak hours electric loads, placing additional strain on the grid during peak hours. This challenge, combined with the current rapidly increasing demand from data centers, exacerbates the electric demand duck curve problem. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with heat pump can shift electric use for heating and cooling from peak to off-peak hours of the electric grid, which can help flatten the daily electric demand profile of a building. This paper presents a novel design that integrates heat pump with TES (HP-TES), which uses phase change materials (PCM). Heat pump charges TES by melting or freezing PCM during off-peak hours when there is no thermal demand from the building. TES is then discharged (i.e., by freezing or melting PCM) during peak hours to provide a more favorable heat source or heat sink for the heat pump to meet the thermal demand of the building with lower electricity use than conventional air-source heat pumps. Computer simulations were developed to predict the performance of HP-TES applied to a typical single-family house in the US. The building-level simulation results were scaled up to preliminarily assess the aggregated impacts of deploying HP-TES across all single-family houses in Texas of the United States, including reduction of peak demand of the electric grid.

Anees, Fady [ORNL]

From Bricks to Clicks: Mapping the White Space in Building Innovation

It is a critical national imperative to transform the buildings sector, yet innovation is impeded by deployment failures that leave promising technologies stranded. Conventional market reports and techno-economic analysis provide an insufficient understanding of markets and resource allocation for emerging building technologies. They omit crucial commercialization factors such as ecosystem maturity and adoption friction, where the coordinated participation of a network of suppliers, contractors, financiers, regulators, and integrators is required to scale solutions. This study addresses these gaps by introducing an evaluation framework grounded in front-line data from six years of the DOE's IMPEL incubator, comprising experience from 300 building-sector innovators and the adjacent, complex ecosystem. Our methodology synthesizes top-down market analysis with bottom-up, practitioner-level data across five megatrends: (M1) Affordable materials and industrialized construction; (M2) Healthy and efficient mechanical systems; (M3) Intelligent building operations; (M4) Buildings as grid assets; and (M5) High-density power and cooling for data centers and therein identify twelve "white space" technology opportunities. Next, we develop a multi-criteria scoring rubric to rank these opportunities based on parameters, i.e., Affordability, Quality of Life, Reliability, and Security, yielding composite ‘Demand’ and ‘Maturity’ indices. Our results indicate that the most significant white spaces may not be incremental products but a new class of ‘Ecosystem Enablers’, such as logistics platforms, orchestration layers, and automated compliance software that solve structural deployment gaps. This paper summarizes this transparent, evidence-based, practitioner-informed evaluation framework for policymakers and investors to re-evaluate policy and resource allocation and unlock scalable market transformation.

Singh, Reshma

FAST Discovery of a Fast Neutral Hydrogen Outflow

Abstract In this letter, we report the discovery of a fast neutral hydrogen outflow in SDSS J145239.38+062738.0, a merging radio galaxy containing an optical type I active galactic nucleus (AGN). This discovery was made through observations conducted by the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST) using redshifted 21 cm absorption. The outflow exhibits a blueshifted velocity likely up to ∼−1000 km s −1 with respect to the systemic velocity of the host galaxy with an absorption strength of ∼−0.6 mJy beam −1 corresponding to an optical depth of 0.002 atv= −500 km s −1 . The mass outflow rate ranges between 2.8 × 10 −2 and 3.6M ⊙ yr −1 , implying an energy outflow rate ranging between 4.2 × 10 39 and 9.7 × 10 40 erg s −1 , assuming 100 K s< 1000 K. Plausible drivers of the outflow include the starbursts, AGN radiation, and radio jet, the last of which is considered the most likely culprit according to the kinematics. By analyzing the properties of the outflow, AGN, and jet, we find that if the Hioutflow is driven by the AGN radiation, the AGN radiation does not seem powerful enough to provide negative feedback, whereas the radio jet shows the potential to provide negative feedback. Our observations contribute another example of a fast outflow detected in neutral hydrogen and demonstrate the capability of FAST in detecting such outflows.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

Semiconducting Electrides Derived from Sodalite: A First-Principles Study

Electrides are ionic crystals, with electrons acting as anions occupying well-defined lattice sites. These exotic materials have attracted considerable attention in recent years for potential applications in catalysis, rechargeable batteries, and display technology. Among this class of materials, electride semiconductors can further expand the horizon of potential applications due to the presence of a band gap. However, there are only limited reports on semiconducting electrides, hindering the understanding of their physical and chemical properties. In recent work, we initiated an approach to derive potential electrides via selective removal of symmetric Wyckoff sites of anions from existing complex minerals. Herein, we present a follow-up effort to design semiconducting electrides from parental complex sodalites. Among four candidate compounds, we found that a cubic Ca 4 Al 6 O 12 structure with the I-43m space group symmetry exhibits perfect electron localization at the sodalite cages, with a narrow electronic band gap of 1.8 eV, making it suitable for use in photocatalysis. Analysis of the electronic structures reveals that a lower electronegativity of the surrounding cations drives greater electron localization and promotes the formation of an electride band near the Fermi level. Our work proposes an alternative approach for designing new semiconducting electrides under ambient conditions and offers guidelines for further experimental exploration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Multi-Ion Complexes and Competition from Bulky BArF – Anions for Chloride Binding in Ion Pairing Conditions

Cationic charges have long been used to enhance anion binding. Embedding charge introduces strong ion pairing for target anions but also for off-target ions, ultimately generating a mixture of multi-ion species that are hard to identify and quantify. While many sidestep this problem using polar solvents and weakly coordinating ions, these approaches exclude a substantial cross-section of conditions found in applications spanning recognition, assembly, separations, templation, and catalysis. To confront this complexity, we study the binding of an anion to a cationic receptor featuring low shape complementarity in a low-polarity solvent to maximize ionic interactions. We prepared the receptor as a salt of the weakly coordinating tetrakis­[3,5-bis­(trifluoromethyl)­phenyl]­borate (BArF – ) anion and studied the binding of small chloride (Cl – ) and medium-sized iodide (I – ) anions. Surprisingly, the use of the bulky BArF – anion does not suppress ion pairing interactions, with 65% of the receptor being paired at 0.5 mM in dichloromethane. We observe multi-ion receptor-Cl – complexes (2:1, 1:1, 1:2), reinforcing the complexity that emerges when working in low-polarity media. Here, we reveal the dependence of affinity on anion charge density and size and that bulky BArF – counteranions compete for chloride binding. These studies reveal the noninnocence of BArF – anions and strategies to quantify multi-ion species.

Ion pairing

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology