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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Cell and Stack Degradation Evaluation and Modeling
Presentation on NETL's solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) work plan research (FWP 1022411) given by invitation to the 2024 Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review meeting in Arlington, VA on May 7, 2024.
A Radiation-Aware Model for Analyzing Degradation in Optoelectronic Devices
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Mechanistic electrochemical modeling of simulated spent nuclear fuel (SIMFUEL) degradation
Poster summarizing modeling of UO2 (SIMFUEL) corrosion using the Zuzax code suite
Assessing the impact of multi-physics effects on photovoltaic module degradation using computational modeling
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High-Capacity Enzymatic Degradation of Postconsumer Poly(ethylene terephthalate): Modeling and Experimental Investigations
Enzymatic degradation is considered as one of the key steps for biorecycling of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a widely used plastic. Recently, we have developed an optimized leaf-branch compost cutinase PelB-LCC ICCG and demonstrated ∼80% degradation of 200 g L −1 recycled PET (RPET) within two days in bioreactors. In this study, continued research efforts were made to achieve a complete degradation of up to 300 g L −1 RPET in bioreactors. First, low-capacity reaction conditions with ≤5 g L −1 PET were examined to identify the key variables for PET degradation with PelB-LCC ICCG , including temperature, enzyme loading, and product inhibition. To better understand and further optimize the enzymatic degradation process, a mechanism-based model was established to describe the kinetics of PET degradation and formation of the main product terephthalic acid (TPA) and byproducts MHET and BHET in high-capacity bioreactors. Model simulation suggested that a minimal enzyme loading of ∼1.4 mg PelB-LCC ICCG g −1 RPET is required to achieve a nearly complete degradation of RPET within 48 h, which was used to guide more high-capacity experiments with 100−300 g L −1 RPET in fully controlled 1 L bioreactors. A higher temperature (≥65 °C) was found not only to enable rapid degradation in the beginning but also to induce a gradual increase in RPET’s crystallinity and significantly slow down the degradation after 48 h. A high loading of RPET solids and the accumulation of the produced insoluble TPA pose a big challenge on mixing and mass transfer in the stirred bioreactor, which can be addressed by increasing the stirring speed. The results pave the way toward biorecycling of PET at a large scale.
Modeling Synergistic Fuel Cell Membrane Degradation with Mitigating Effects of Cerium
During operation, polymer-electrolyte-membrane (PEM) fuel cells undergo mechanical and chemical degradation mechanisms, which behave synergistically and lead to accelerated membrane degradation over time. This study builds upon previous modeling work on mechanical degradation as described by a pinhole in the membrane and the effects of cerium on chemical degradation.1 By combining these two models, analysis can be carried out on the coupled degradation methods and how the mitigation effects of cerium disrupt the degradation cycle. The mechanical model represents a pinhole in the membrane using an effective void fraction, which allows for increased gas crossover through the membrane and impacts the membrane transport and mechanical properties. A microkinetic model for the chemical degradation is included in the model, including attack of the membrane polymer by hydroxyl radicals as well as the mitigation reaction for quenching of hydroxyl radicals with cerium. A concentrated solution theory approach is used to model the transport of cerium ions throughout the cell.2 The model results show how the location of cerium in the cell can be used to prevent chemical degradation. In addition, the model shows how cerium slows down the rate of pinhole growth by reducing the gas crossover and membrane thinning rate. Finally, the model can be used to optimize the distribution of cerium in the membrane and catalyst layers by balancing trade-offs between lowering degradation rates and decreasing fuel cell performance.
Characterization, Accelerated Life Testing, and Finite Element Modeling of Low Temperature Solder Wire Interconnect Degradation Mechanisms
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Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation
Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.
Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics
Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.
Modeling synergistic fuel cell membrane degradation with mitigating effects of cerium
During operation, polymer-electrolyte fuel cells undergo mechanical and chemical degradation, which behave synergistically and lead to accelerated membrane deterioration over time. This study builds upon previous modeling work on mechanical degradation, as described by a pinhole in the membrane, and chemical degradation mitigation by using cerium. By combining these two models, analysis can be carried out on the coupled degradation methods and how the mitigation effects of cerium disrupt the degradation cycle. The model results show how the presence of a pinhole in the membrane changes the distribution of cerium in the cell and modifies chemical degradation rates. In addition, the model shows how cerium affects the rate of pinhole growth by slowing down the rate of change in mechanical properties due to chemical degradation. Finally, the model shows how cerium modifies the mechanical and chemical degradation rates of the membrane under humidity- and voltage-cycling conditions.
Reactive transport modeling of organic carbon degradation in marine methane hydrate systems
Abstract Natural methane hydrate has often been observed in sand layers that contain no particulate organic carbon (POC), but are surrounded by organic-rich, fine-grained marine muds. In this paper, we develop a reactive transport model (RTM) of a microbially-mediated set of POC degradation reactions, including hydrolysis of POC driven by extracellular enzymes, fermentation of the resulting high-molecular weight dissolved organic carbon (HMW-DOC), and methanogenesis that consumes low-molecular weight dissolved organic carbon (LMW-DOC). These processes are mediated by two groups of microbes, fermenters and methanogens that are heterogeneously distributed in different lithologies, with the largest numbers of microbes in the large pores of coarse-grained layers. We find that the RTM can reproduce methane hydrate occurrences observed in two different geological environments, at Walker Ridge Site 313-H (Gulf of Mexico) and IODP Site U1325 (Cascadia Margin). We also find that microbes can degrade POC even if they are physically separated, as extracellular enzymes and DOC can diffuse away from where they are produced by microbes. Microbial activity is highest at relatively early times after burial at shallow depths and near lithological boundaries, where concentration gradients transport solutes to intervals that contain the most microbes.
Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material
Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.
Performance Modelling and Yearlong Outdoor Degradation Analysis of a GaAs//Si Tandem Module
Silicon-based tandem photovoltaic cells and modules are forecasted to enter mass production around the year 2026. Previous research efforts on tandem photovoltaic technology have focused heavily on increasing cell efficiencies. However, for successful large-scale deployment of tandem modules, reliability and long-term durability will be equally important. Outdoor performance data beyond the one-year mark enable sophisticated degradation analysis and help build confidence in the reliability and durability of this new technology.
Performance Modeling of Tandem Photovoltaics: A Yearlong Outdoor Degradation Analysis of a GaAs//Si Minimodule
We present a performance modeling and degradation analysis framework for tandem photovoltaic modules, building upon established procedures for crystalline silicon devices and adapting them to account for the spectral sensitivity of multijunction technologies. The methodology employs filter criteria to select outdoor measurements close to standard test conditions (STC) under stable spectral and ambient conditions, followed by normalization of power production data with corrections for temperature, irradiance, and precipitable water vapor. We demonstrate this framework using a mechanically stacked four-terminal gallium arsenide (GaAs) // silicon (Si) tandem solar minimodule deployed outdoors from October 2019 to January 2021 in Golden, Colorado, USA. We determined degradation rates of −4.1 ±0.2%/year for the GaAs subcell and −2.5 ±0.9%/year for the Si subcell, with analysis of individual performance metrics indicating that packaging degradation, particularly delamination, was the dominant failure mode. Simulations using PVcircuit, an open-source equivalent-circuit solver, confirmed these findings. The presented methodology provides a reproducible foundation for performance modeling and degradation analysis of emerging tandem technologies.
Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data
The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.