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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Algorithms for Industry-Specific Freight Generation Model

According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the U.S. transportation system handled 14,329 million ton-miles of freight per day in 2020. Understanding the generation of these freight shipments is crucial for transportation researchers, planners, and policymakers to design and plan for a more efficient and connected freight transportation system. Traditionally, the freight generation modeling has been based on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, although more advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been evaluated and proven to have excellent performance in various transportation applications in recent years. Furthermore, one modeling approach applied for one industry might not always be applicable for another as their freight generation logics can be quite different. The objective of this study is to apply and evaluate alternative ML algorithms in the estimation of freight generation for each of 45 industry types. Seven alternative ML algorithms, along with the base OLS regression, were evaluated and compared. In addition, the study considered different combinations of variables in both the original and logarithmic form as well as hyperparameters of those ML algorithms in the model selection for each industry type. The results showed statistically significant improvements in the root mean square error reduction by the alternative ML algorithms over the OLS for over 80% of cases. The study suggests utilizing the alternative ML algorithms can reduce the root mean square error by about 30%, depending on industry types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a Sustainable Aviation Brain Trust: Key Insights From the 2022 NREL Partner Forum

Cross-sector collaboration is key for guiding the large, complex aviation industry over the emissions peak and quickly down the slope to net-zero - that theme was repeated regularly during the two-day 2022 NREL Partner Forum. With an expanding global economy, more people than ever want the convenience of air travel. That has made aviation the fastest-growing transportation sector, as well as a rising source of carbon emissions. How can the industry serve its customers while charting a course to net-zero in line with climate goals? Interest and momentum from public and private sectors are mounting to answer that question, a backdrop for the Partner Forum. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) brought 200 attendees to the whiteboard to find common goals, align interests, understand technologies, and discuss steps for safely and seamlessly decarbonizing aviation. This document captures the tenor of the conversations and provides a summary of the 1.5 day event for those who were not able to attend or who have interest in this area.

aircraft↗
DOE OSTI2023

A metagenome-level analysis of a microbial community fermenting ultra-filtered milk permeate

Fermentative microbial communities have the potential to serve as biocatalysts for the conversion of low-value dairy coproducts into renewable chemicals, contributing to a more sustainable global economy. To develop predictive tools for the design and operation of industrially relevant strategies that utilize fermentative microbial communities, there is a need to determine the genomic features of community members that are characteristic to the accumulation of different products. To address this knowledge gap, we performed a 282-day bioreactor experiment with a microbial community that was fed ultra-filtered milk permeate, a low-value coproduct from the dairy industry. The bioreactor was inoculated with a microbial community from an acid-phase digester. A metagenomic analysis was used to assess microbial community dynamics, construct metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), and evaluate the potential for lactose utilization and fermentation product synthesis of community members represented by the assembled MAGs. This analysis led us to propose that, in this reactor, members of the Actinobacteriota phylum are important in the degradation of lactose, via the Leloir pathway and the bifid shunt, and the production of acetic, lactic, and succinic acids. In addition, members of the Firmicutes phylum contribute to the chain-elongation-mediated production of butyric, hexanoic, and octanoic acids, with different microbes using either lactose, ethanol, or lactic acid as the growth substrate. We conclude that genes encoding carbohydrate utilization pathways, and genes encoding lactic acid transport into the cell, electron confurcating lactate dehydrogenase, and its associated electron transfer flavoproteins, are genomic features whose presence in Firmicutes needs to be established to infer the growth substrate used for chain elongation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utilization of lignocellulosic hydrolysates for photomixotrophic chemical production in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942

Abstract To meet the need for environmentally friendly commodity chemicals, feedstocks for biological chemical production must be diversified. Lignocellulosic biomass are an carbon source with the potential for effective use in a large scale and cost-effective production systems. Although the use of lignocellulosic biomass lysates for heterotrophic chemical production has been advancing, there are challenges to overcome. Here we aim to investigate the obligate photoautotroph cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 as a chassis organism for lignocellulosic chemical production. When modified to import monosaccharides, this cyanobacterium is an excellent candidate for lysates-based chemical production as it grows well at high lysate concentrations and can fix CO 2 to enhance carbon efficiency. This study is an important step forward in enabling the simultaneous use of two sugars as well as lignocellulosic lysate. Incremental genetic modifications enable catabolism of both sugars concurrently without experiencing carbon catabolite repression. Production of 2,3-butanediol is demonstrated to characterize chemical production from the sugars in lignocellulosic hydrolysates. The engineered strain achieves a titer of 13.5 g L −1 of 2,3-butanediol over 12 days under shake-flask conditions. This study can be used as a foundation for industrial scale production of commodity chemicals from a combination of sunlight, CO 2 , and lignocellulosic sugars.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization and Evaluation of Energy Savings for Connected and Autonomous Off-Road Vehicles

Off-road vehicles, such as wheel loaders, excavators, and harvesters, are extensively utilized across a wide range of industries, including construction, agriculture, and mining. These machines have become indispensable in supporting the day-to-day operational needs of a nation, playing a critical role in various sectors' infrastructure and productivity. However, despite their utility, off-road vehicles are significant consumers of fossil fuels, resulting in substantial emissions that contribute to environmental degradation. This highlights the pressing need for research and technological advancements aimed at improving their energy efficiency and reducing their carbon footprint. There are, however, two primary challenges that must be addressed to achieve these goals. First, off-road vehicles typically perform both driving and working tasks simultaneously, which introduces a high level of complexity into their overall dynamic systems. Analysis the interactions between these functions is challenging. Second, research into off-road vehicles is inherently interdisciplinary, demanding expertise across several domains such as fluid power systems, vehicle dynamics, control theory, optimization techniques, and real-world implementation. Recognizing these challenges, we proposed the project titled "Optimization and Evaluation of Energy Savings for Connected and Autonomous Off-Road Vehicles" as a comprehensive solution to enhance fuel efficiency while simultaneously improving productivity. This project specifically focuses on autonomous off-road vehicles, with particular attention to wheel loaders, and seeks to develop novel methods to optimize energy consumption without sacrificing operational performance. The project integrates real-time control algorithms, vehicle dynamics modeling, and co-optimization of powertrain system and vehicle system to achieve these goals. Our optimization strategy dynamically co-optimizes critical parameters at both the powertrain and vehicle levels, including vehicle speed, working tool movements, powertrain dynamics, and engine operations in real-time. To streamline this optimization process, we developed a vehicle model that captures the key dynamics while significantly enhancing computational efficiency. This allows the system to intelligently minimize fuel consumption, all while maintaining or even improving productivity through real-time calculations during various off-road operations. To validate the effectiveness of this energy optimization method, we introduced a state-of-the-art Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) testbed. This reconfigurable testbed seamlessly integrates the actual engine with virtual models of the wheel loader's subsystems, allowing for accurate emulation of real-world operational loads and environments. By simulating these conditions, the HIL testbed enables us to evaluate the wheel loader’s performance under diverse working scenarios, ensuring the developed solution is applicable in real-world operations. This testbed proved to be instrumental in validating the optimization algorithms and demonstrating the system's practical effectiveness. During the evaluation and testing phase, we employed the HIL testbed to rigorously assess the energy savings and productivity improvements generated by the optimized system. The results were highly encouraging, revealing that the automated wheel loader achieved over 30% fuel savings compared to traditional, human-operated cycles, with comparable or even enhanced levels of productivity. The insights gained from this HIL-based testing provided critical validation of our approach and highlighted the potential for deploying these optimized autonomous technologies in real-world off-road vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Circuit Detects Faint Flashes Against Bright Background

Lightning detector is photocell-and-amplifier circuit detecting flashes of light against steady or slowly varying bright background. Measures luminous flux in scene under observation. Designed to detect lightning from spacecraft in orbit far above clouds. Also used on Earth to detect lightning from distance during day or night, or to detect other flashes of light in safety-related, scientific, industrial, and military applications.

Vaughan, O.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Control of Thermal Convection in Layered Fluids Using Magnetic fields

Immiscible fluid layers are found in a host of applications ranging from materials processing, for example the use of encapsulants in float zone crystal growth technique and a buffer layer in industrial Czochralski growth of crystals to prevent Marangoni convection, to heat transfer phenomena in day-to-day processes like the presence of air pockets in heat exchangers. In the microgravity and space processing realm, the exploration of other planets requires the development of enabling technologies in several fronts. The reduction in the gravity level poses unique challenges for fluid handling and heat transfer applications. The present work investigates the efficacy of controlling thermal convective flow using magnetic fluids and magnetic fields. The setup is a two-layer immiscible liquids system with one of the fluids being a diluted ferrofluid (super paramagnetic nano particles dispersed in carrier fluid). Using an external magnetic field one can essentially dial in a volumetric force - gravity level, on the magnetic fluid and thereby affect the system thermo-fluid behavior. The paper will describe the experimental and numerical modeling approach to the problem and discuss results obtained to date.

Ramachandran, N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of proteomics and metabolomics into the Design, Build, Test, Learn cycle to improve 3-hydroxypropionic acid production in Aspergillus pseudoterreus

Biological engineering of microorganisms to produce value-added chemicals is a promising route to sustainable manufacturing. However, overproduction of metabolic intermediates at high titer, rate, and yield from inexpensive substrates is challenging in non-model systems where limited information is available regarding metabolic flux and its control in production conditions. Integrated multi-omic analyses of engineered strains offers an in-depth look at metabolites and proteins directly involved in growth and production of target and non-target bioproducts. Here we applied multi-omic analyses to overproduction of the polymer precursor 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3HP) in the filamentous fungus Aspergillus pseudoterreus. A synthetic pathway consisting of aspartate decarboxylase, beta-alanine pyruvate transaminase, and 3HP dehydrogenase was designed and built for A. pseudoterreus. Strains with single- and multi-copy integration events were isolated and multi-omics analysis consisting of intracellular and extracellular metabolomics and targeted and global proteomics was used to interrogate the strains in shake-flask and bioreactor conditions. Production of a variety of co-products (organic acids and glycerol) and oxidative degradation of 3HP were identified as metabolic pathways competing with 3HP production. Intracellular accumulation of nitrogen as 2,4-diaminobutanoate was identified as an off-target nitrogen sink that may also limit flux through the engineered 3HP pathway. Elimination of the high-expression oxidative 3HP degradation pathway by deletion of a putative malonate semialdehyde dehydrogenase improved the yield of 3HP by 3.4× after 10 days in shake-flask culture. This is the first report of 3HP production in a filamentous fungus amenable to industrial scale biomanufacturing of organic acids at high titer and low pH.

Pomraning, Kyle R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ultra-selective CANAL Polymers for Hydrogen-based Membrane Separations after Long-Term Aging

Hydrogen is a critically important molecule in the chemicals and energy industries, driving the need for efficient purification technologies such as membrane-based separations. However, polymer membranes often suffer from physical aging, leading to decreased gas permeability over time. This study leverages the unique aging behavior of contorted microporous polymers, synthesized via catalytic arene-norbornene annulation (CANAL) polymerization, to enhance molecular sieving for H 2 separations. While prior studies demonstrated a 1000% increase in H 2 /CH 4 selectivity with minimal permeability loss over 150 days, we extend this investigation to hyperaged (∼1 year) CANAL polymers and evaluate their performance under various conditions of industrial relevance. We report a remarkable 6100% increase in H 2 /CH 4 selectivity and a 2400% improvement in H 2 /N 2 selectivity, with only a 55% decline in H 2 permeability. These membranes exhibit excellent long-term stability in binary and ternary gas mixtures and at elevated temperatures. Additionally, extended aging enhances H 2 /CO 2 selectivity beyond the 2008 upper bound due to improved size-sieving. High-temperature permeation experiments and grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations reveal that H 2 permeability increases from 570 to 3500 barrer as the temperature rises from 35 °C to 190 °C, while H 2 /CO 2 selectivity declines from 14 to 3 due to the higher diffusion activation energy of CO 2 . Despite this tradeoff, hyperaged CANAL membranes maintain performance beyond the 200 °C upper bound, having selectivity–permeability performance comparable to many state-of-the-art membranes for H 2 /CO 2 separations. As a result, this study highlights the robustness and industrial viability of ultra-selective CANAL polymers for hydrogen purification, contributing to advancements in clean energy and sustainable separation technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the upscaling potential and geospatial siting of calcination-free calcium hydroxide production in the United States

This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility and the embodied carbon dioxide intensity (eCI) of a novel process for producing nominally pure (>95 mass %) calcium hydroxide without the need for the thermal calcination of limestone. The process relies on the aqueous extraction of calcium from alkaline industrial wastes following which portlandite (Ca(OH) 2 : CH, a.k.a. slaked lime or hydrated lime) is precipitated by application of a waste-heat based thermal swing. This approach takes advantage of the temperature dependent solubility of CH at ambient pressure. We evaluated the feasibility of implementing this process in the U.S. based on the geospatial availability of waste heat and slags as a Ca-source. For the base case, the cost of production of “Low-Temperature Portlandite (LTP)” is 2-to-3 times that of traditional portlandite (~$180/tonne). The main driver of cost is the electricity demand for reverse osmosis (RO) which is used to concentrate Ca-ions in solution, and the costs of membrane replacement. Our sensitivity analysis showed that parity with the cost of production of traditional portlandite is readily achievable by selecting membranes with better durability (i.e., better pH resistance) and flux (i.e., higher permeability) without sacrificing selectivity. Significantly, LTP features an eCI that is between 40%- and - 80 % lower than its traditional counterpart when electricity is sourced from natural gas combustion or wind power, respectively. Finally, our geospatial analysis reveals that there are three areas in the U.S. with the potential for implementation of industrial-scale facilities that could produce at least 50 tonnes of pure Ca(OH) 2 per day, while achieving a production cost of ~$270 per tonne of Ca(OH) 2 , owing to the proximity between slag feedstocks and waste heat sources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model

Abstract During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model‐derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea‐level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre‐industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice‐sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high‐latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice‐sheet response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

HIPPO Software

HIPPO software is a Python implementation of the HIPPO technology. The HIPPO technology provides the computational and modeling capabilities for managing electricity market operations and for designing and prototyping future markets. The current software can solve the day-ahead unit commitment problem and perform simultaneous feasibility test. It can be used to handle industry scale electricity market.

Peng, Fan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Downscaling NASA Climatological Data to Produce Detailed Climate Zone Maps

The design of energy efficient sustainable buildings is heavily dependent on accurate long-term and near real-time local weather data. To varying degrees the current meteorological networks over the globe have been used to provide these data albeit often from sites far removed from the desired location. The national need is for access to weather and solar resource data accurate enough to use to develop preliminary building designs within a short proposal time limit, usually within 60 days. The NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was established by NASA to provide industry friendly access to globally distributed solar and meteorological data. As a result, the POWER web site (power.larc.nasa.gov) now provides global information on many renewable energy parameters and several buildings-related items but at a relatively coarse resolution. This paper describes a method of downscaling NASA atmospheric assimilation model results to higher resolution and maps those parameters to produce building climate zone maps using estimates of temperature and precipitation. The distribution of climate zones for North America with an emphasis on the Pacific Northwest for just one year shows very good correspondence to the currently defined distribution. The method has the potential to provide a consistent procedure for deriving climate zone information on a global basis that can be assessed for variability and updated more regularly.

Chandler, William S.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Fifty Years of Observing Hardware and Human Behavior

During this half-day workshop, Joe McMann presented the lessons learned during his 50 years of experience in both industry and government, which included all U.S. manned space programs, from Mercury to the ISS. He shared his thoughts about hardware and people and what he has learned from first-hand experience. Included were such topics as design, testing, design changes, development, failures, crew expectations, hardware, requirements, and meetings.

McMann, Joe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Additive Manufacturing for Injection Molds

This report presents an additive-manufacturing (AM) technology, where AM Cyclic Olefin Resin (COR) molds would be used for injection molding. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) team has focused on the costs and economics of this developing technology. This report presents a cost-benefit analysis of using the polySpectra AM COR molds made of COR, at the start of the project (Present') and the potential lifetime, cost-effectiveness, and performance by the end of the project period (Period 3'). The analysis of the AM COR molds is compared to traditional Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machined aluminum molds across the time periods. A cost-benefit model framework has been developed to evaluate AM COR molds. This model accounts for mold delivery to customers, current and future levels of technology readiness, the type of material injected, and various business cases. AM COR molds offer a major advantage in lead time, reducing production setup from weeks or months (with CNC machining) to as little as two to five days. This enables faster prototyping, quicker design cycles, and accelerated time-to-market, critical in industries like electronics, aerospace, medical devices, and automotive. Even modest improvements in the durability of polySpectra AM COR molds show the potential for these molds to complement traditional tooling. With further development, AM COR mold technology could provide significant time and cost savings while supporting increased domestic manufacturing capacity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chapter 14: Machine Learning of Combustion LES Models from Reacting Direct Numerical Simulation

In this chapter we demonstrate how supervised deep learning techniques can be used to construct models for the filtered progress variable source term necessary for large eddy simulation (LES). The source data for the model is a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a reacting flow in a low swirl burner configuration. Filtered quantities taken from the DNS data are used to train a deep neural network (DNN)-based model. An efficient data sampling strategy was devised to ensure that a uniform representation of all the states observed in the filtered DNS data are equally present in the training dataset. A-priori testing of the DNN-based model highlights the representative power of DNN to accurately reproduce the filtered reaction progress variable source term over a range of scales and various flame regimes as seen in an industrial burner.

combustion LES models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can a Nuclear-Assisted Biofuels System Enable Liquid Biofuels as the Economic Low-carbon Replacement for All Liquid Fossil Fuels and Hydrocarbon Feedstocks and Enable Negative Carbon Emissions?

This report integrates the results of a series of studies and workshops to address the question: Can a nuclear-assisted biofuels system enable liquid biofuels as the economic low-carbon replacement for all liquid fossil fuels and hydrocarbon feedstocks and simultaneously enable negative carbon emissions? “Economic” is defined as economically competitive relative to other low-carbon replacement options for crude oil. “All” refers to the capability to replace the 18 million barrels of oil per day used by the United States. “Nuclear-assisted” refers to the provision of massive quantities of low-carbon heat and hydrogen at the refinery to fully utilize the carbon content of the cellulosic biomass feedstocks for liquid hydrocarbon production. A system is proposed that decarbonizes about half of the U.S. economy while improving long-term soil productivity and sequestering carbon from the atmosphere. In the U.S. almost half the energy consumed by the final customer is in the form of liquid hydrocarbons produced from crude oil. Liquid hydrocarbons are used as (1) an energy source, (2) a method for daily-to-seasonal energy storage, (3) a chemical feedstock, (4) a chemical reducing agent, (5) a method to enhance high-temperature heat transfer in many furnaces and industrial processes and (6) other purposes. As a consequence, the U.S. consumes ~18 million barrels of crude oil per day to produce liquid hydrocarbons. While there are substitutes for liquid hydrocarbons for some applications, our assessment is that the costs and difficulty will dramatically increase if liquid hydrocarbon use goes much below the equivalent of 10 million barrels per day of crude oil. New uses of liquid hydrocarbons to partly replace coal and natural gas could increase demand beyond the equivalent of 10 million barrels of oil per day. One can produce and burn liquid hydrocarbons from biomass without any net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Plants grow by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere; thus, burning biomass does not result in any net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Biomass is typically 40% oxygen. To remove this oxygen to create hydrocarbon liquids, there are two options. The first option is to use biomass as (1) a feedstock, (2) an energy source to operate the process and (3) a supply of carbon to remove the biomass oxygen as carbon dioxide. The second option is to use external heat and hydrogen to remove the oxygen as water and produce liquid hydrocarbons. The use of massive quantities of external heat and hydrogen for hydrocarbon liquid fuels production reduces the biomass feedstock per unit of liquid hydrocarbon product by more than a factor of two reducing land use by more than a factor of two. Many cellulosic feedstocks unsuitable for liquid hydrocarbon production are viable feedstocks with external heat and hydrogen inputs. As a result, there is sufficient cellulosic feedstocks to meet U.S. and global liquid fuels hydrocarbon demand without significant impacts on food and fiber prices. The heat and hydrogen (heat plus electricity) are produced using base-load nuclear power plants—the most economic form of nuclear energy. If low-price natural gas, there is also the option of producing hydrogen from natural gas with sequestration of the carbon dioxide. The biomass is locally processed in depots to produce commodity feedstocks that can be shipped long distances to large biorefineries (250,000 barrels per day, oil equivalent) similar to existing refineries except modifications of front-end processes. The depot system enables local recycle of nutrients back to the soil. The biorefinery can produce variable quantities of liquid hydrocarbon fuels and carbon dioxide for sequestration enabling removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Preliminary estimates are that the liquid hydrocarbon costs are equivalent to crude oil at between $60 and $70 per barrel. The largest cost is for hydrogen with biomass feedstocks and refinery costs a smaller fraction of the total cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗