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At least 163 records · Page 9

Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have emerged over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

Assessment↗

Impact of an SRA (hexylene glycol) on irreversible drying shrinkage and pore solution properties of cement pastes

Cementitious materials shrink when exposed to decreasing relative humidities, which may result in cracking. Shrinkage reducing admixtures (SRAs) can be used to reduce this drying shrinkage. Although many studies have shown that SRAs reduce the surface tension of the pore solution, the effects of SRAs on other pore solution properties and their relationship to drying shrinkage have been poorly characterized. In this work, we investigate the impact of an SRA (hexylene glycol) on the drying and re-humidification of a cement paste over an extended relative humidity range. The reduction in the first drying shrinkage by the SRA depends on relative humidity. The SRA also significantly reduces the irreversible drying shrinkage. We concluded that the SRA impacts drying shrinkage by acting on the capillary forces, by acting on the specific range of relative humidity over which those forces occur, and potentially by acting on the surface stresses through pore wall adsorption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Early reactivity of sodium silicate-activated slag pastes and its impact on rheological properties

The fast loss of fluidity of sodium silicate-activated slag (SS-AAS) systems have been widely studied in the literature. In this study, the rheology of these cements has been correlated with the evolution of the reaction products formed over time. For this purpose, a combination of experimental characterization techniques, to study the pore solution composition and microstructure of SS-AAS pastes and thermodynamic calculations have been applied. The initial precipitation of ill-defined N-A-S-H and C-N-A-S-H producta leads to a fast increase of the storage modulus after 40 min of reaction. These products are formed from the reaction of the Na{sup +} ions and silicate ions of the activator with the Ca{sup 2+} and aluminate species dissolved from the slag. However, when a shear is applied, the structure breaks down and fluidity is recovered, that infers that the attractive forces between the particles are low at the early stages of hydration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Rheology of fresh cement pastes containing polymer nanoparticles

Influences of polymer nanoparticles (PNPs) with varied charge densities on the rheological behaviors of fresh cement pastes (fcps) without and with polycarboxylate superplasticizer (PCE) were studied. In the blank fcp, the addition of PCE and highly anionically charged PNPs greatly decreases the yield stress and the plastic viscosity due to their large adsorption on cement that produces electrostatic repulsion and steric hindrance between cement grains. However, the non-adsorbing nonionic PNPs show a slightly opposite effect. In the PCE-containing fcp, both the anionic and nonionic PNPs become non-adsorbing on cement due to the stronger affinity of PCE to cement surface. In this way, the addition of the PNPs in the PCE-containing fcp slightly increases the yield stress and the plastic viscosity, but significantly decreases the pseudoplastic index, which is believed to result from the generation of the so-called depletion attractive force between cement grains induced by the non-adsorbing polymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-scale investigation on mechanical behavior and microstructural alteration of C-S-H in carbonated Alite paste

Carbonation treatment is a promising option to enhance recycled concrete aggregate (RCA) quality and eventually improve concrete performance. This study investigated the multi-scale mechanical properties of calcium silicate hydrates (C-S-H) in a mature alite paste subjected to accelerated carbonation treatment by testing macro compressive strength, microhardness and nanoindentation. The results show that, carbonation treatment resulted in a heterogeneous distribution of carbonation products in the alite sample. Reinforcement of C-S-H by the randomly precipitated calcite and vaterite crystals prevailed over the nano-structural and compositional alteration of C-S-H induced by carbonation, leading to an increase of nano-indentation modulus at the edge of the sample. Also, the microhardness at the edge zone was markedly higher than that at the core of the carbonated sample. The carbonated peripheral zone with improved nano-scale modulus and microhardness was likely serving as a “hard shell”, contributing to the improved macro compressive strength. The new insights into the multi-scale mechanical properties of carbonated C-S-H contribute to further understanding of the enhanced properties of RCA after carbonation treatment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantitative microstructural investigation of 3D-printed and cast cement pastes using micro-computed tomography and image analysis

Highlights: • Processing alters the microstructure in 3D-printed lamellar cubic element. • A unique patterned and connected pore microstructure network exists. • Micro-channels are connected through micro-pores present at interfaces regions. • Three distinct pore volume domains exists in hardened microstructure. • Volume and frequency of pore, hydrated, and unhydrated clusters are dissimilar. Microstructural phases and mechanical properties of lamellar 3D-printed and cast hardened cement paste (hcp) elements were investigated using a lab-based X-ray microscope at two levels of magnification (0.4× and 4×). K-means clustering was used for quantitative image analysis. The entire volume of intact 3-days-old 3D-printed and cast hcp elements was characterized at 0.4× magnification. Three microstructural features (macro-pores, micro-channels, and interfacial micro-pores) were found to reside in three distinct pore size domains. The largest pores of the 3D-printed element were larger than the largest pores of the reference cast hcp element. Moreover, the smallest pore sizes of the 3D-printed element were found to be smaller than those present in the cast counterparts. Micro-channels were found to be connected to one another through the micro-pores present at interfacial regions, indicating the presence of a uniquely patterned and interconnected pore network. The role of locally weak and porous interfaces on mechanical response and fracture properties is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding the microstructural evolution of hypersaline cemented paste backfill with low-field NMR relaxation

Highlights: • Microstructural evolution of CPB, prepared with tap and hypersaline water, is monitored using low-field NMR relaxometry. • T{sub 1} and T{sub 2} NMR relaxation measurements compared with mechanical strength via UCS tests • Hypersaline mixing water results in slower structural evolution and lower mechanical strength. Cemented paste backfill (CPB) comprising mineral tailings, binders and mixing water is an important potential support material in the mining industry. As the mechanical properties of CPB are significantly influenced by its microstructural characteristics the development of measurement tools to better understand its pore structure evolution is important for its increased utilisation. This study reports the application of low-field nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) relaxation time measurements to characterise the microstructural evolution of CPB materials over 56 days of hydration, contrasting common tap water and hypersaline water (~22 wt% salt) as mixing water. Distinct NMR relaxation time populations were evidenced within each CPB sample, revealing the presence of both capillary (T{sub 1,2} ≈ 10 ms) and gel pore water (T{sub 1,2} ≈ 300–500 μs), with time-dependent relaxation measurements facilitating characterisation of capillary pore structure evolution over the hydration period assessed. Hypersaline samples demonstrated a time-lag in this measured capillary pore evolution, relative to those hydrated with tap water, while pore structure evolution rates were observed to increase with increased CPB binder content. Further, both T{sub 1} and T{sub 2} NMR relaxation times were found to correlate with the uniaxial compressive strength of the CPB materials investigated, facilitating the formulation of a predictive correlation function between NMR relaxation characteristics and mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reactivity in cement pastes bearing fine fraction concrete and glass from construction and demolition waste: Microstructural analysis of viability

Converting construction and demolition waste (CDW) into secondary raw materials is one of the priorities of environmental policy and circular economy strategy. This study analysed the variation in eco-efficient paste reactivity with OPC replacement ratio (5% to 10%) and hydration time (2 d, 28 d and 90 d). Three types of CDW were explored: two (calcareous and siliceous) consisting of fine (4 AH{sub 13} and C{sub 4}AcH{sub 11}, ettringite and portlandite, were the same as observed in OPC hydration. These findings attest to the scientific viability recycling such CDWs as mineral additions in eco-cement manufacture and consequently eliminating the need for stockpiling these materials at recycling/storage plants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physical-chemical-mechanical quantitative assessment of the microstructural evolution in Portland-limestone cement pastes exposed to magnesium sulfate attack at low temperature

The changes in structural integrity and microstructure of Portland-limestone cement pastes were investigated in the course of magnesium sulfate attack at low temperature. A deterioration front, consisting of three distinct layers (brucite, gypsum, leached cement matrix), swelled in time due to the expansive nature of the deterioration products, generating cracks and subsequently detaching from the sound cement matrix, continuously promoting the process. Gypsum and thaumasite characterized the leached matrix, which experienced extensive cross-linking of the aluminosilicate structures, as a result of decalcification and dealumination of the calcium silicate hydrates (C(A)SH), impairing the overall mechanical performance. CSH of low packing density was most severely affected by the process, as confirmed by the significant drop in nano-mechanical properties. The increased rate of deterioration with limestone content was tentatively attributed to the prevalent morphology of the CSH phase. Results were validated by thermodynamic simulations, indicating that the real systems did not reach equilibrium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time-dependent water vapor desorption isotherm model of hardened cement paste

Highlights: • Short-term and long-term desorption isotherms of hardened cement paste are reviewed. • Water content at RH depends on both thermodynamic and microstructural equilibria. • An extended GAB equation is proposed to fit the cavitation drop during desorption. • A dynamic time-dependent sorption isotherm model is shown and used for simulations. • Numerical results capture anomalous drying in the same RH as seen experimentally. This study aims to enhance moisture transport modeling by elucidating the so-called anomalous water diffusion in cementitious materials. Water desorption isotherms are measured from samples at various drying stages using techniques with different durations to quantify the impact of the drying duration on the water sorption ability. A single water sorption isotherm does not solely give a relationship between the water content and relative humidity but also represents the state of microstructure. The continuous evolution of a desorption isotherm due to drying-induced microstructural rearrangement is demonstrated. For numerical modeling, the microstructural alteration can be explicitly considered through a dynamic desorption isotherm model, which governs the local thermodynamic equilibrium at the capillary meniscus. This approach is implemented into a multiphase transport code, whose ability to predict drying is validated using literature data. Finally, the effect of prolonged drying on the colloidal nature of the calcium-silicate-hydrate gel is discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Degradation mechanism of blended cement pastes in sulfate-bearing environments under applied electric fields: Sulfate attack vs. decalcification

Applied electric fields, the reason behind stray currents, accelerate the ingress of sulfate into cementitious materials. To identify mitigation approaches, this study investigates the effects of slag and fly ash on sodium sulfate attacks of cement pastes under a constant electric current. The mineralogical alterations induced by the attacks were analyzed using X-ray diffractometry, thermogravimetric analysis, scanning electron microscopy, and thermodynamic modeling. The dissolution of aluminates in the slag and fly ash induced a monosulfate-rich area (>~20 mm from the cathode surface) to form next to the ettringite-rich area on the sample surface (<~20 mm). This effect reduced the availability of SO 4 2– in the pore solution, thereby hindering the penetration of sulfate. Meanwhile, the consumption of portlandite by the pozzolanic reaction lowered the decalcification resistance of the materials. This produced a wide area that endured the decomposition of portlandite and carbonate-AFm. Altogether, blending 30% fly ash did not improve the resistance of the material to either sulfate attacks or decalcification; blending 50% slag can effectively mitigate sulfate ingress, though decalcification may become a governing mechanism in the degradation process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Neutral Mode Dominates the Forced Global and Regional Surface Temperature Response in the Past and Future

Abstract Using a large suite of Green's function perturbation experiments, we construct the emergent dynamical operator for surface temperature and extract the most excitable mode. The leading mode turns out to be the most dominant mode excited by the climate forcing of doubling CO 2 , alone capturing 56% of the total spatial variances of the surface temperature response. The pattern of the leading mode is partly organized by the atmospheric annular modes in both hemispheres, and further modulated by the feedbacks from ocean circulations. Though derived from a single model, the leading mode can capture the spatio‐temporal variabilities of the global mean surface temperature over the past century in both the CMIP6 model simulations and observations. Moreover, the leading mode is most efficiently excited by radiative forcings from the midlatitude bands centered around 45°N and 25°S, where most human activities take place, suggesting the potency of human influence on the climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO-TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long-term changes in the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP-historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP-historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled-historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO-TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Shift of Drivers of Soil Erosion and Sedimentation Based on Regional Process-Based Modeling in the Mississippi River Basin During the Past Century

Soil erosion and sedimentation problems remain a major water quality concern for making watershed management policies in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). It is unclear whether the observed decreasing trend of stream suspended sediment loading to the mouth of the MRB over the last eight decades truly reflects a decline in upland soil erosion in this large basin. Here, for this work, we improved a distributed regional land surface model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, to evaluate how climate and land use changes have impacted soil erosion and sediment yield over the entire MRB during the past century. Model results indicate that total sediment yield significantly increased during 1980–2018, despite no significant increase in annual precipitation and runoff. The increased soil erosion and sediment yield are mainly driven by intensified extreme precipitation (EP). Spatially, we found notable intensified EP events in the cropland-dominated Midwest region, resulting in a substantial increase in soil erosion and sediment yield. Land use change played a critical role in determining sediment yield from the 1910s to the 1930s, thereafter, climate variability increasingly became the dominant driver of soil erosion, which peaked in the 2010s. This study highlights the increasing influences of extreme climate in affecting soil erosion and sedimentation, thus, water quality. Therefore, existing forest and cropland Best Management Practices should be revisited to confront the impacts of climate change on water quality in the MRB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distilling the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases to Large‐Scale Low‐Frequency Surface Ocean Changes Over the Past Century

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG)—the leading drivers of the forced historical change—produce different large‐scale climate response patterns, with correlations trending from negative to positive over the past century. To understand what caused the time‐evolving comparison between GHG and AER response patterns, we apply a low‐frequency component analysis to historical surface ocean changes from CESM1 single‐forcing large‐ensemble simulations. While GHG response is characterized by its first leading mode, AER response consists of two distinct modes. The first one, featuring long‐term global AER increase and global cooling, opposes GHG response patterns up to the mid‐twentieth century. The second one, featuring multidecadal variations in AER distributions and interhemispheric asymmetric surface ocean changes, appears to reinforce the GHG warming effect over recent decades. AER thus can have both competing and synergistic effects with GHG as their emissions change temporally and spatially.

Dong, Yue↗

Modern temperatures in central–north Greenland warmest in past millennium

The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point. Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming, but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from ad 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since ad 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Past and future ocean warming

Changes in ocean heat content (OHC) provide a measure of ocean warming, with impacts on the Earth system. This Review synthesizes estimates of past and future OHC changes using observations and models. The top 2,000 m of the global ocean has significantly warmed since the 1950s, gaining 351 ± 59.8 ZJ (1 ZJ = 10 21 J) from 1958 to 2019. The rate of warming increased from <5 to ~10 ZJ yr –1 from the 1960s to the 2010s. Observed area-averaged warming is largest in the Atlantic Ocean and southern oceans at 1.42 ± 0.09 and 1.40 ± 0.09 × 109 J m –2 , respectively, for the upper 2,000 m over 1958–2019. These observed patterns of heat gains are dominated by heat redistribution. Observationally constrained projections suggest that historic ocean warming is irreversible this century, with net warming dependent on the emission scenario. By 2100, projected warming in the top 2,000 m is 2–6 times that observed so far, ranging from 1,030 [839–1,228] ZJ for a low-emission scenario to 1,874 [1,637–2,109] ZJ for a high-emission scenario. The Pacific is projected to be the largest heat reservoir owing to its size, but area-averaged warming remains strongest in the Atlantic and southern oceans. Ocean warming has extensive impacts that pose risks to marine ecosystems and society. Here, the projected changes necessitate a continuation and improvement of observations and models, along with better uncertainty estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗